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Europe
Poland
July 11, 2024 11:39 Ukraine’s silence about the WWII Volhynia massacre underscores one-sided alliance as Zelensky visits Poland. The anniversary of the WWII massacre passes and the silence from president Zelensky and Polish leaders is not just a missed diplomatic gesture but a profound failure in addressing historical wounds that continue to mar the relationship. July 11 marks the 81st anniversary of Bloody Sunday, the most tragic episode of the Ukrainian-perpetrated genocide of Poles in Volhynia, which was a Polish territory before the Second World War in the “borderland” region, but is now part of Ukraine. On this day, tens of thousands of people were slaughtered in 99 villages. These victims have yet to be exhumed and given a dignified burial, a process continuously blocked by Ukrainian authorities, including the current administration. Last year, on the 80th anniversary of this horrific crime, Poland received not a single word from the Ukrainian president. Tragically, the steadfast guardian of this cause, Rev. Isakowicz-Zaleski, is no longer. On July 11, 1943. Ukrainian nationalists murdered over 50,000 Poles. This year, just three days before the anniversary, Zelensky visited Poland. His visits, typically center on what more Poland can offer Ukraine. The leader did not mention the impending anniversary. It is reflective of a ’Kyiv standard.’ Cessation of cult of UPA murderers is last issue to be settled. It is scandalous that this omission was mirrored by every Polish politician he met. Both the left-liberal Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the conservative President Duda seem to prefer that the Volhynia issue be forgotten, wishing away the unburied dead. Simultaneously, Poland signed an agreement with Ukraine on defense commitments. The document is not formally an international treaty, thus it does not require legislative approval for ratification. If it were a treaty, such approval would be necessary given it involves a military alliance - a detail highlighted by the content of the agreement. The choice of agreement format also conveniently avoids parliamentary debate, which would likely raise uncomfortable questions about the benefits Poland receives from the arrangement and what it demands in return. In this “bilateral’ deal, Kyiv is practically the sole beneficiary. The entirety of the 24-page document is a litany of Polish obligations to Ukraine, underpinned by a tally of what it have already done. The document does not address a single issue where Polish and Ukrainian interests might conflict, such as in agricultural production. In Poland, based on this agreement, a Ukrainian legion is to be formed, which the Polish are of course expected to equip. No one has clarified how this will affect security, especially given that Ukrainian soldiers will effectively be entering combat from Polish territory. Tucked away at the very end of the agreement, on page 14, there is a vague mention of “enhancing cooperation in conducting searches, exhumations, and other activities aimed at the dignified burial of victims of conflicts, repression, and crimes.” Exactly which “conflicts, repressions, and crimes' are referred to remains unclear. (Source: brusselssignal *)
* Brussels Signal, published by Remedia Europe SRL, Brussels, Belgium
July 11, 2024 The Polish government will train a unit of Ukrainian exiles to be deployed in their home country, Foreign Minister Sikorski said on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington. The Polish move comes only a few days after Warsaw and Kyiv signed a bilateral security agreement; one of the provisions called for training Ukrainians for war. Earlier this year Ukraine adopted a law increasing the pace of mobilization, as it desperately needs new troops. Under the new law, Kyiv obliged Ukrainian men living abroad to renew their military draft information online and encouraged them to return to Ukraine and join the fight. 'In Poland, we are beginning to train the first Ukrainian brigade composed of volunteers from inside Poland. We have up to a million Ukrainians of both genders, and several thousands of them have already registered for the draft,’ FM Sikorski said during a NATO Public Forum today. They will be available to the Ukrainian government as a unit with the right to return to Poland after their rotation, he said. He encouraged other European countries also hosting male Ukrainian refugees or with significant Ukrainian minorities to do the same. (Source: politico *)
* Politico, an American political digital newspaper. Headquarters Arlington County, Virginia, U.S.
11 July 2024 Poland angry as Hungary blocks €2 billion ‘peace facility’ payments. Poland has reacted with frustration after Hungary blocked a payment of around €2 billion in European Union funds intended to compensate Warsaw for its military aid to Ukraine over the war with Russia. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government is blocking the payment from the European Peace Facility, an off-budget EU instrument designed to reimburse governments that send military aid to Kyiv. The Hungarians have consistently opposed military aid to Kyiv and Orbán has maintained high-level relations with Russian President Putin. Orbán has recently visited both tKyiv and the Russian capital in an effort to facilitate negotiations to end the war. That was criticised by other EU leaders who argued that the Hungarian government was effectively giving succour to the Russians. The Hungarians countered that channels must remain open to both nations if a peace agreement is to be reached. Yesterday, at a NATO summit in Washington, Polish foreign minister Sikorski told reporters that 'Hungary is abusing our trust’ and called the Hungarian stance 'unfriendly and hostile’. He confirmed that the money blocked by the country was intended to fund the modernisation of Poland’s armed forces. Poland is not the only country affected by the blockage of the funds. The arrears to be paid out by the EU to all countries supporting Ukraine amount to about €9 billion. In June, the foreign ministers of 26 EU countries decided to by-pass Hungary’s veto on proposed aid to Ukraine, enabling them to grant Kyiv up to €1.4 billion for ammunition and air defences. Still, that only involves frozen Russian financial assets and does not resolve the problem of the Hungarian blockage of other EU funds. (Source: rmx *)
* Remix, published in Budapest, Hungary. Offers news and commentary from Central Europe, the Visegrád countries
July 11, 2024 Poland borrows another $2B from US to buy F-35s. The US State Department has approved a second foreign military loan to Poland to clear the way for its planned procurement of an undisclosed number of F-35 jets from Lockheed Martin on top of Patriot air defense missiles and Abrams main battle tanks. Valued at $2 billion, the loan agreement is part of Warsaw’s ongoing military modernization effort to address ’rising threats in the region’. Poland received its first military loan from the US, signed in September 2023, also for $2 billion. It was clearly stipulated that the money should only be spent on US-made weapons. The country said it earmarked roughly half of the borrowed amount for the purchase of four aerostat-based early warning radar systems. ’Poland is a leader in NATO,’ the department wrote. ’[It is] currently spending four percent of GDP on defense, the highest in the alliance. Poland hosts thousands of US and allied forces.’ Warsaw has so far sent more than $8.6 billion in military aid to the war-torn nation and accepted the largest number of Ukrainian refugees. At a recent press conference, Polish Army Chief of Staff General Kukula said the country needs to prepare its soldiers for an all-out conflict amid the increasing tension in the region, adding that this will allow ’us to find a good balance between the border mission and maintaining the intensity of training in the army.’ Earlier this year, a startling German intelligence report claimed that 'Moscow may launch an attack on a NATO member state by 2026'. ’Poland is considered a likely target’. (Source: thedefensepost *)
* The Defense Post, a security and defense news publication. Headquarters Washington D.C., U.S.
July 11, 2024 NATO officials have agreed at a summit in Washington taking over the coordination of training and weapons deliveries from the United States. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg announced on July 10 the launch of a centralized command in Germany and the establishment of a training and analysis center in Poland. Stoltenberg said NATO’s plans to establish these two support facilities are within the elements of the robust security support package agreed during the summit along with providing Ukraine with $43 billion in military aid for next year, bilateral agreements, and more equipment, including air-defense systems. The operation in Poland will be known as a joint training and analysis center (JTAC), which will focus on improving NATO interoperability with Ukraine and studying the way the Ukraine war has changed warfare. Speaking at a panel discussion on the sidelines of the summit, Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski said the JTAC will be built in his hometown of Bydgoszcz. He envisions it becoming a state-of-the-art war analysis center that examines how drone warfare is changing the battlefield and other modern aspects of the Ukrainian war. And he predicted that Ukrainians eventually will take on major roles at the JTAC - the Ukrainians will be teaching them. 'We are not doing this because we want to prolong the war. We are doing this because we want to end the war as soon as possible’;) Stoltenberg said. (Source: rferl *)
* Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, an American government-funded international media organization. Headquarters Prague Broadcast Center, Czech Republic
European Council
11 July 2024 EU ambassadors yesterday blasted Hungary for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s solo diplomatic initiative on Ukraine in a two-hour meeting. They sought more clarity on the aims and results of Hungary’s recent visits ’to speak with Russian President Putin and then Chinese President Xi', initiatives Budapest had described as "peace mission" to resolve the ongoing war in Ukraine. EU leaders and officials had been unanimous in recent days in condemning the surprise visit 'to Moscow", insisting that Budapest was not acting on behalf of the bloc as a whole. The bloc’s envoys were stressing that Orbán’s push 'was incompatible with the country currently holding the bloc’s rotating EU presidency". In total, 25 EU member states, with the exception of Slovakia, which did not take part in the discussion, ’expressed wide dissatisfaction or anger at how the Hungarian presidency is unrolling, according to several’ EU diplomats. Hungary’s envoy to the EU used the meeting to present his country’s case for the trip. “Hungary tried to argue that the visits were strictly bilateral, only to scope out the feasibility and conditions for a ceasefire,” one EU diplomat said. That argument ’was not credible, given the timing and sequencing of the meetings", use of presidency hashtags, and the reaction of Putin, the diplomats said. Budapest had created ambiguity by using the Hungarian EU presidency logo and hashtags, while Putin had approached Orbán in the expectation that he would represent the bloc’s position. However, EU member states did not discuss options on how to deal with the issue or, as some had previously called for, to ‘rein in’ Hungary’s actions, including Poland, which had originally put the issue on the agenda for yesterday’s meeting. “No one raised the issue of ending or shortening the presidency. No concrete measures were presented or adopted,” a second EU diplomat said. 'Some EU member states have already shown signs of carrying out diplomatic snubs by sending more junior officials than expected to informal meetings' organised by the Hungarians. Hungarian officials were keen to play down concerns about possible shunning of EU presidency meetings. (Source: euractiv *)
* Euractiv, a European news website. Its headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.
European Union
11/7/2024 Jews in EU member states are in the grip of a ’rising tide of anti-Semitism’, the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA), that conducted the survey said. The vast majority of the survey’s data had been collected prior to the October 7 Hamas massacre. The agency’s study, which compiled data from 12 Jewish organisations, found that 96 per cent of European Jews had encountered anti-Semitism in 2023. Three-quarters of Jewish people in Europe hide their identities ’at least occasionally’ as they fear being harassed or attacked by anti-Semites. And 34 per cent said they took care to avoid Jewish events or places as they did not feel “safe” there, Rautio, the agency’s director said. “FRA’s consultation with national and European Jewish umbrella organisations in early 2024 shows a dramatic surge [in anti-Semitic attacks],' Ms Rautio said. Jews are 'more frightened than ever before’ and growing anti-Semitism was also at risk of disrupting the EU’s first-ever strategy for addressing the issue, she said, as she blamed increased tensions over the war in Gaza. Of particular concern was France, where 74 per cent of respondents said they felt the ongoing Gaza war affected their sense of security. Eighty per cent of respondents said they felt that negative stereotypes or conspiracy theories about Jews were a growing concern, such as claims they were “holding power and control over finance, media, politics or [the] economy”. Others encountered Europeans who denied Israel’s right to exist. Four per cent said they had been the victims of physical anti-Semitic attacks in 2023, a twofold increase from a previous 2018 study by the same agency. A further 60 per cent said they were unhappy with the way their national government was dealing with anti-Semitism. The survey covered 13 EU member states which account for 96 per cent of the EU’s Jewish population: Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain and Sweden. Similar surveys were carried out in 2013 and 2018. (Source: telegraph *)
* The Daily Telegraph, a British daily newspaper. Headquarters London, England, United Kingdom
Russia
July 11, 2024 Russia Today published an article by Russian academic Lukyanov titled "This is the only way to end confrontation between Russia and the West," on June 22, 2024. „Judging by Moscow's statements, the confrontation may only come to an end when the principles on which European security is based are fundamentally reconsidered," he wrote. Russia's then-Minister of Foreign Affairs Kozyrev signed up to NATO's Partnership for Peace program in Brussels on June 22, 1994. This marked the beginning of official relations between the Russian Federation and the US-led bloc (prior to that, the USSR and NATO were involved in political dialogue within the framework of the North Atlantic Cooperation Council, but it was established only several days before the dissolution of the Soviet Union). The Partnership for Peace program originally served a double goal: it was an alternative to NATO membership, but also a preparatory step for joining the organization (at least for some countries). When the program was launched, a final decision on the expansion of NATO had not yet been made. "Russia opposed the idea, but was not consistent. Kozyrev warned about the consequences of expansion, but repeatedly said NATO was not Russia's enemy. Russian President Yeltsin dissuaded Western leaders from growing the bloc, but at the same time told Polish President Walesa that Moscow was not against Warsaw's accession. However, two years later, NATO finally announced that it would admit the first group of former communist countries. "Currently, the prevailing view in Russia is that, following the dissolution of the USSR, the US and its allies embarked on a course of a military and political takeover of the former Soviet sphere of influence, and NATO became the main instrument in achieving this. "The concept adopted at the end of the Cold War stated that NATO ensured European security, and a bigger NATO meant a more secure continent. As a first step towards this, everyone (including Moscow) agreed that a reunited Germany would remain a member of the bloc instead of receiving neutral status, as some had suggested earlier. Further, it was implied that each country had the right to choose whether or not to join any alliances. Theoretically, that is what sovereignty implies. But in practice, the geopolitical balance of power had always imposed restrictions that forced alliances to consider the reaction of non-member countries. However, the triumphalism that reigned in the West following the Cold War significantly reduced the willingness to take such reactions into account - NATO felt like it could do anything and no reply would follow. The West's easy and unexpected success in the Cold War created a feeling of unconditional victory – a political and economic success, but most importantly, a moral one. "The West felt that it, as the winning side, had the right to determine the structure of Europe and knew exactly how to go about it. This was not simply a display of conscious arrogance, but rather of joyful euphoria. "In fact, there never was a real chance to establish a true partnership between Russia and NATO, although at some point there were certain illusions regarding this. "The situation could have changed dramatically if Russia had considered the possibility of joining NATO, and if the bloc itself had considered such a scenario. Then the principle of the indivisibility of security, proclaimed in the 1990 Charter of Paris for a New Europe, would have been respected within the framework of the bloc. However, it was impossible for Russia to join NATO, since, even at its weakest, Russia remained one of the world's largest military powers and possessed the largest nuclear arsenal. The hypothetical accession of such a state to NATO would mean the emergence of a second force within the club that would be on a par with the US, and therefore, would not obey it on the same level as other allies. This would change the very essence of the organization, and alter its principles of Atlanticism (simply because of Russia's geographical location). No one was prepared for this. The qualitative transformation of NATO was never on the agenda. "As a result, NATO's expansion, which in a sense became automated, pushed Russia further and further to the east. Moscow's attempts to regulate this process – first through participation in joint institutions (such as the NATO-Russia Council of 2002, which was an expansion of the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997) and then through growing opposition (starting with Putin's Munich Speech in 2007) – did not bring the desired results. In addition to the inertia of the West's initial approach (which implied that the bloc's very existence is security in itself), the West believed that Moscow didn't have the right to set conditions and must only follow the rules set by the stronger and more successful Western community. This is how the EU eventually got involved in the current Ukraine war. "Could relations between NATO and Russia have developed in a different way? The West believes that the persistence of Russia, which continued to consider NATO a threat to its security, led to the current military crisis. And, in fact, this became a self-fulfilling prophecy. But even assuming that this was true, the speed and ease with which NATO returned to a strong confrontation with Russia shows that it had been prepared for this. "Russia's memorandum of December 2021 and the 2022 military operation in Ukraine were designed to put an end to the idea of NATO's uncontested expansion as the only means of ensuring European security. Two-and-a-half years later, we see that the scale of the conflict has exceeded all initial expectations. Judging by Moscow's statements, the confrontation may only come to an end when the principles on which European security is based are fundamentally reconsidered. "This is not a territorial conflict, but a conflict which may only end when NATO abandons its main goal and function. So far, there is no compromise on the horizon. The Western side is not willing to agree that the results of the Cold War must be reconsidered, and the Russian side is not ready to retreat without this assurance. Thirty years after the signing of the Partnership for Peace program, there's still no partnership or peace between Russia and NATO. And neither is there a clear understanding of why the two sides were unable to achieve it."
(Source: memri *)
* Middle East Media and Research Institute, an American press monitoring and analysis organization. It publishes and distributes copies of media reports translated into English. Headquarters Washington, D.C., United States
by Lukyanov, the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs; research professor at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs of Moscow Higher School of Economics; chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy; research director of the Valdai International Discussion Club.
July 11, 2024 American allies in Europe caught in between. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty was signing in 1987 by President Reagan and the Soviet leader, Gorbachev. West Germany at the time was on the front lines of the Cold War. The agreement was prohibiting nuclear and conventional missiles with ranges from 500 to 5,500 kilometers and removed the Soviet-type SS-20s or Pioneers mobile, intermediate-range, nuclear-armed ballistic missiles and the American nuclear-capable Pershing II ballistic missiles as well as nuclear-capable Ground-Launch Cruise Missiles from Europe. The treaty remained in force until the Trump administration pulled out of it in 2019, citing violations by Russia with the development of a new cruise missile, the 9M729, also known as the SSC-8. Washington said that the missile could fly at ranges in violation of the agreement. Moscow said that the missile’s range was shorter and denied violating the pact. The dissolution of the Cold War-era agreement signaled the possibility of a renewed arms race, including competing missile deployments in Europe. For years, President Putin of Russia has cited the American deployment of missile infrastructure in Europe as an aggressive move aimed at containing Moscow’s capabilities. At the end of June, Mr. Putin said at a meeting with security officials that Russia should relaunch production of ground-based nuclear-capable missiles of shorter and intermediate range. Russia is preparing military countermeasures in response to the planned American deployment of longer-range missiles in Germany, ’to this new game,’ the Russian deputy foreign minister Ryabkov said today, adding that the U.S. move was “destructive to regional safety and strategic stability.’ In a separate comment published by the Russian Foreign Ministry, Mr. Ryabkov said that Moscow had anticipated the decision and that Russia had started preparing ’compensating countermeasures’ in advance. The news about the coming missile deployments in Germany was made during the NATO summit in Washington. Ultimately, the weapons will include nonnuclear SM-6 missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles and developmental hypersonic weapons. The alliance also announced that an American missile defense base in Poland capable of intercepting ballistic missiles was 'mission ready' after years of development. The Kremlin’s spokesman, Peskov, said today that tensions were ’escalating on the European continent.’ Moscow saw the deployment of NATO infrastructure closer to its border as “a very serious threat.’ (Source: dnyuz */ New York Times **)
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** The New York Times, an American daily newspaper. Headquarters New York City, U.S.
Asia
South Korea
July 11, 2024, 3:33 PM South Korea will become the first country in the world to deploy and operate laser weapons. It announced today that it will deploy laser weapons by the end of this year, to be produced by Hanwha Aerospace, to target North Korean drones. The low-cost system burns engines or other electronic equipment with beams of light. Each shot fired only costs about $1.50 and is extremely difficult to detect before impact. It’s a weapons system capable of countering even aircraft and ballistic missiles if they enhance the generated power, Seoul’s key arms agency said. (Source: foreignpolicy).
North America
United States
July 11, 2024, 3:33 PM Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met with former U.S. President Trump at his Mar-a-Lago property in Florida today. Orbán took over the six-month presidency of the European Union’s Council of Ministers on July 1, and since then, he has met with Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi as part of a self-described “peace mission”- meetings that have angered his fellow NATO members. Orbán and Trump were expected to discuss Russia’s war with Ukraine. Orbán is not the only one worrying fellow NATO members. Yesterday, Trump said he would not pull the United States out of the alliance; however, he reiterated that he wants other NATO nations to pay more. Trump is considering reducing the United States’ intelligence-sharing with NATO members if he is reelected in November. (Source: foreignpolicy *)
* 'Foreign Policy, an American news publication based in Washington, D.C., U.S., with daily content' on its website.
NATO
July 11, 2024 10:23 PM West preparing for arms race with Russia, its backers - intent on confronting a nascent arms race with global implications. Some Western officials say NATO must prepare to outspend, outpace and outproduce the fledgling alliance that has kept the Russian military on the move - the growing defense cooperation among Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. Officials have repeatedly accused China of playing a critical role in sustaining Russia's military by sending Moscow raw materials and so-called dual-use components needed to produce advanced weapons and weapons systems. In April and May, the United States and Britain levied new sanctions against Iranian companies and officials involved in the production of drones for the Russian military. Declassified U.S. intelligence has noted Russia's use of North Korean ballistic missiles. South Korean officials said earlier this year that Pyongyang has so far sent Russia at least 6,700 containers that could contain more than 3 million artillery shells. U.S. President Biden said a strategy to disrupt their efforts is being put into place. 'We talked about how both the European Union as well as NATO has to be able to begin to build their own ammunition capacity, has to be able to generate their own capacity to provide for weapons,’ Biden said today. The West is going to become the industrial base for it, Biden added. "We will have the ability to have all the defensive weapons that we need." The U.S., Germany, Spain and others have already begun to produce interceptors for Patriot air defense batteries in Europe. The U.S. and Turkey have embarked on an effort to produce 155 millimeter artillery shells in the southern U.S. state of Texas. The U.S. president said some European allies are also preparing to impose costs on China and disengage economically for as long as Beijing provides Moscow with the components and materiel it needs to continue its war against Ukraine. Already some U.S. officials have taken to calling Russia, China, North Korea and Iran a new ’axis of evil.’ They're 100% aligned all the time, every day, on the strategic capabilities that they're building in partnership, Goldberg, a U.S. National Security Council official under former President Trump, told. "Our response has to view them as an axis, not individual parts." "There are still significant tension points between the four countries that prevent the formation of a more cohesive alliance," said Grisé, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. "Within the Russia-Iran relationship, for example, friction points include competition for energy markets and for influence in the Caucasus, as well as - at least historically - divergent approaches to Israel," Grisé told. The Russia-China-North Korea-Iran axis "to form a more cohesive alliance, they'll have to translate their shared opposition to the Western-led international order into a coherent, shared vision for the future, which I expect they'll struggle to do,’ she said. (Source: voanews *)
* Voice of America, the international radio broadcaster of the United States of America. Headquarters Washington, D.C., United States
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