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Europe
France
July 4, 2024 4:01 AM CET De-Macronization. Macron has been described as “crazy,” “an agent of chaos” and blamed for overseeing a “fiasco.” In recent weeks, several party heavyweights have lobbied for Macron, 46, to stay away from the campaign. Yesterday, the government’s spokesperson announced new appointments in the police and security forces after the weekly Cabinet meeting. Dozens of top military officials have also been appointed in the army, the navy and the air force. More appointments were expected, but faced with a growing outcry over the administrative reshuffle, the president was forced to scale back his plan. “[The president] underestimated how much the public were turned off by his personality,” an official said. “He was told to stop [campaigning] … And it’s not really that he heard our message, it’s more that he was forced to hear it,” said the Renaissance party official. If the 'far right' wins a very large majority, Macron would be under pressure to nominate the National Rally’s leader Bardella as prime minister. If not, the president could get involved in lengthy coalition talks with his current rivals on the 'left' and the right. (Source: politico)
Germany
July 4, 2024 4:00 AM CET Scholz, after pledging last fall to begin deporting people “on a grand scale,” hasn’t kept that promise. Although the number of deportations rose 30 percent in the first quarter of this year, the total was still only 4,700. There are currently about 230,000 people in Germany eligible for extradition. The government has granted most of them a status known as Duldung - “tolerated”- given the impossibility of sending them back to their home countries. About 45,000 are slated for immediate extradition. Only 6 percent of the latter group come from Afghanistan and Syria. Many Germans were shocked when radical Islamists celebrated the stabbing of a police officer in online posts, leading Berlin to vow to deport those who praise acts of terror and violence. In a sign of his government’s growing panic over the issue, Scholz’s Cabinet last week endorsed a draft bill that would allow for the deportation of foreigners who praise acts of terror and other violence, even if they only do so on social media. It amounts to a desperate - and likely futile - effort to counter the rise of the AfD, whose politicians have seized on the issue, frequently depicting Germany as being overrun by violent crime. Personal safety was top of most voters’ minds, with 74 percent saying they were “very worried” about a “massive” increase in crime in the future. The number of criminal acts in Germany rose by about 6 percent last year compared to 2022, with authorities attributing the increase to high levels of migration. While foreigners make up about 15 percent of Germany’s population, they accounted for a record 41 percent of all crimes in 2023. Crime that authorities attributed to foreign suspects rose by 23 percent in 2022 and by 18 percent in 2023. The number of violent incidents involving a knife rose by nearly 40 percent from 2021 to 2023, hitting 14,000. “Islamist agitators stuck in the stone age do not belong in our country,” Interior Minister Faeser said last week. It’s far from clear that the deportation bill will make it through parliament given concerns among Germany’s Greens that the reform is an unconstitutional infringement on free speech. The tougher legislation is unlikely to curb Islamist hate speech online. The country’s most prominent Islamists aren’t migrants but German citizens who can’t be deported. Migrants who have been granted asylum are protected from deportation. The only people who could be deported are those with standard visas. Yet even they could only be sent home if they come from countries that Germany has deemed safe; Syria and Afghanistan aren’t on the list. It is now clear that any move by the government to push through extraditions would be met with legal challenges that would delay the initiative or scupper it altogether. Scholz’s willingness to take such risks suggests he understands that the German public has turned against his migration policies. With just a year until the next federal election, however, he may not have enough time to do anything about it. “It outrages me when someone who has found protection here commits the most serious of crimes,” Germany’s balding 65-year-old chancellor told his audience in Berlin’s Reichstag, adding to applause that violent migrants “had no business” in Germany. “Such criminals should be deported, even if they come from Syria or Afghanistan.” (Source: politico)
Russia
4 Jul 2024 Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi discussed Ukraine when they met on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Astana, and agreed that peace talks on Ukraine without Russia’s presence were pointless. Also meeting on the SCO sidelines, Turkish President Erdogan told Putin that Ankara could help end the conflict, but Putin’s spokesman Peskov said Erdogan could not play the role of an intermediary. He did not say why. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said he discussed bilateral cooperation and exchanged views on 'a number of regional and global threats posed by Russia, Iran and North Korea' with Israeli counterpart Katz. The United States announced $150m in new military assistance for Ukraine. The package includes missiles for HAWK air defence systems, ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds, 81mm mortar rounds, TOW (Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided) missiles, Javelin and AT-4 antiarmour systems, as well as a range of other small arms ammunition and equipment. NATO allies agreed to fund military aid for Ukraine with 40 billion euros ($43bn) next year. (Source: aljazeera)
Ukraine
07/03/2024 05:38 PM EDT "Ukrainians deserve to weigh their strategic options through clear eyes, not through rose-tinted glasses held out by outsiders who do not have the support of their countries". “The challenges Russia poses can be managed without bringing Ukraine into NATO.” "The purpose of NATO is not to signal esteem for other countries; it is to defend NATO territory and strengthen the security of NATO members. Admitting Ukraine would reduce the security of the United States and NATO Allies, at considerable risk to all". More than 60 analysts, foreign policy experts called on NATO members yesterday to avoid advancing toward Ukrainian membership at alliance’s upcoming summit in Washington, warning that it would endanger the U.S. and allies and rupture the coalition. "Some claim that the act of bringing Ukraine into NATO would deter Russia from ever invading Ukraine again. That is wishful thinking. Since Russia began invading Ukraine in 2014, NATO Allies have demonstrated through their actions that they do not believe the stakes of the conflict, while significant, justify the price of war. If Ukraine were to join NATO, Russia would have reason to doubt the credibility of NATO’s security guarantee - and would gain an opportunity to test and potentially rupture the alliance. The result could be a direct NATO-Russia war or the unraveling of NATO itself". If Ukraine is admitted, the group argues, Russia attacking Ukraine in the future would trigger NATO’s Article 5, which calls on allies to defend the member attacked. Moving Ukraine toward membership could backfire, the letter continues, 'turning Ukraine into the site of a prolonged showdown between the world’s two leading nuclear powers' and play into Russian leader Putin’s narrative that it’s Moscow versus the West. The letter was organized by Ruger, president of the American Institute for Economic Research, and Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The Atlantic Council has been pushing for NATO membership for Ukraine. The Biden administration has refrained from supporting Kyiv’s immediate membership, but top officials recently said a “bridge” into the alliance would be offered to Ukraine during the summit. NATO will also offer Ukraine a new headquarters to manage its military assistance. Yesterday the U.S. announced a new $2.3 billion 'security' package for Ukraine. Outgoing NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg alluded to Kyiv’s future alongside the alliance and concerns about the matter: 'Stepping up our support does not make NATO a party to this conflict.' Last week, RAND Corp. researchers wrote that allies would benefit from offering Ukraine clarity about conditions for its future membership at the summit. Ukraine isn’t expecting much movement on its membership at the summit. It was 'not ready to compromise,' even as some U.S. and European allies quietly whispered to officials in Kyiv that talks with Russia should begin, Yermak, President Zelenskyy’s top adviser told on July 3 night. Rather, security guarantees are what they’re looking for. According to a European Council on Foreign Relations poll released yesterday, 22 percent of Ukrainians are in favor of accepting NATO membership in exchange for giving up territory occupied by Russia, while 71 percent are against such a deal. (Source: politico)
4 July 2024 During a visit to Kyiv this week, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán suggested a ceasefire first to hasten negotiations, a position that officials in Kyiv are wary of. 'We [are] not ready to go to the compromise for the very important things and values,'Yermak, chief of staff to President Zelensky, told in Washington. Ukrainians fear without hard security guarantees - such as Nato membership, rather than vague talk of a bridge to such status - Russia may simply regroup and attack again in the future. Putin is counting on wearing down Ukraine on the battlefield and outlasting the West’s resolve to provide support. As well as launching guided aerial bombs against frontline positions and civilians in Kharkiv, Moscow has also targeted energy infrastructure across the country, leading to increasingly frequent power blackouts and concerns over what winter might bring. November’s US election adds another layer of uncertainty, along with a question mark as to whether the European Union could realistically pick up any slack. (Source: bbc)
United Kingdom
July 4, 2024 12:10 am ET Britain is set for a seismic shift in its political landscape today as voters look set to elect the opposition Labour Party with a huge majority, putting a center-left government into Downing Street for the first time in 14 years. Voters look for fresh leadership after a tumultuous period of Conservative Party rule that included Britain’s departure from the European Union, political infighting and scandal that saw four prime ministers in five years, the pandemic, war in Ukraine and a cost-of-living crisis. British voters are frustrated by the status quo and have a deep distrust in their political class. The British government raised taxes to the highest level since World War II, and government debt has climbed to 90% of annual economic output. A slow-growing economy, meanwhile, isn’t providing extra tax revenues. Some polls show Labour Party leader Starmer, a former public prosecutor turned politician, could be handed the biggest parliamentary majority in modern British history. The Conservatives are behind by more than 20 points in most polls. One poll this week showed the party risks coming in third place, behind the far smaller Liberal Democrats party. The result is likely to be the latest example of growing voter frustration with incumbent political parties across many democracies, at a time when the economic fallout from the pandemic and war have sparked high inflation and damaged incomes. The state-run public-health system currently has 7.5 million people waiting for treatment. Some 2.8 million people are off work sick. Immigration rose to record highs in 2022 and 2023. Starmer has spent the past six weeks crisscrossing the nation repeating his pledge to “stop the chaos” under the Conservatives and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, a former Goldman Sachs banker. To boost growth, he is planning to cut red tape to build more houses, reduce immigration, create a fund to accelerate the build-out of green energy infrastructure and make it easier for people to get appointments in the health system. The U.K. is likely to choose a technocratic Labour leader who is widely seen as dull and hasn’t made any big promises other than to run a more efficient and honest government. Starmer has moved the party sharply toward the center in recent years, shedding its more radical policies and members, and has promised to continue Britain’s pro-U.S. foreign policy, including continued support for Ukraine and Israel. A big challenge for Starmer and Labour is they won’t have much money to spend to improve public services such as the healthcare system and an aging network of railways. Just 5% who planned to vote for Labour said it was because of Labour’s policies. Probably within a year or 18 months there will be tensions. Starmer’s approval ratings are negative in many polls, as trust in politicians more widely sits at record lows. A handful of smaller parties are on track to perform well as they siphon protest votes. The Liberal Democrats' leader Davey, being filmed doing publicity stunts such as bungee jumping and falling into rivers, could record one of their best performances. Reform UK, led by Farage, who ran on a platform of anti-immigration, may win its first seats in Parliament. The immigration reached record levels under the Conservatives. Polls show Reform drawing about 15% to 17% support. Farage has said he would try to draw like-minded lawmakers from what is left of the Conservative Party and form a new right-wing voting bloc. Polls close at 10 p.m. local time. Final verdict is given, likely in the early hours of tomorrow morning. (Source: wsj)
Caribbean
(Thursday), July 4, 2024 At least three islands report more than 90% of the homes and buildings either destroyed or severely damaged, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency reported yesterday. All three are within the chain of Grenadine Islands, where Beryl roared into the Caribbean on the southern end of the Windwards, between St. Vincent and Grenada. Beryl struck the islands with sustained winds of 150 mph and higher gusts on Monday, and the National Hurricane Center had warned that winds could be up to 30% higher on the tops of hills and mountains. With 19 participating states across the Caribbean, the agency was helping coordinate disaster response on Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines even as it continued to track Beryl’s movements across Jamaica, Cayman Islands and Belize. The eye of Beryl is still a Category 4 storm. Grenada Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell described "total destruction" on the islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique. In Carriacou, the total population of 6,081 has been affected, so shelter is "a significant consideration." Majority of homes and buildings have been extensively damaged, communications have been significantly compromised. In Petite Martinique estimated 80% of the houses and buildings are extensively damaged or destroyed. In Canouan, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 100% of the island's population (12,600) has been affected, an estimated 90% of the houses were damaged, either extensively or destroyed; In Union Island, full population of 3,000 was affected by extensive damage, estimated 98% of buildings, including houses are badly damaged or destroyed; In Mayreau, total population of 300 people affected, 90% of the housing stock and buildings have been damaged or destroyed. In Barbados more than 40 homes with damage, a number expected to rise, confirmed significant damage to the fishing sector, more than 200 boats are damaged. In Trinidad and Tobago were power outages. In Dominica minimal damages were reported. (Source: eu.usatoday)
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