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Europe
Germany
2 July 2024 In an evaluation adopted on 20 June this year and published today, the Council of Europe's Committee of Experts of the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages acknowledges legal and policy measures that have been taken by the German federal authorities and by the Länder to protect and promote regional or minority languages. A mid-term review covers compliance by Germany with the recommendations for immediate action issued in the seventh evaluation report in 2022. These recommendations concern for the following areas and minority or regional languages: Danish, Upper Sorbian, Lower Sorbian, North Frisian, Sater Frisian, Low German and Romani. (Source: coe *)
* Council of Europe
European Council
July 2, 2024 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made an unannounced visit to Kyiv today, marking his first visit to Ukraine since the onset of the war, for talks with President Zelenskiy expected to focus on peace and bilateral relations. Orbán, a vocal critic of Western military and financial aid to Ukraine, arrived in Kyiv a day after Hungary assumed the rotating presidency of the EU Council. The decision to give Ukraine candidate status hence was brought forward by the outgoing Belgian presidency and the next aid package has also been cleared as EU members feared that Budapest, which has obstructed the disbursement of EU funds to help arm Ukraine, could have blocked Kyiv’s accession talks. Budapest has consistently opposed Ukraine's aspirations to join Nato and the EU, refused to send arms to Ukraine and obstructed EU aid, resisted sanctions on Russia, consistently called for peace talks, and maintained close relations with Moscow throughout the war. Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó has visited Russia at least five times since the war began, including a recent trip to the St Petersburg International Economic Forum. Despite this stance, Hungary announced last month that it would not block Nato decisions on supporting Ukraine, provided Budapest was not directly involved in the aid. Orbán also recently endorsed Rutte to become the next head of Nato, while assuring that Hungary’s forces and financial resources would not be committed to supporting Ukraine. Relations betwen Ukraine and Hungary have also been strained by what Budapest argues are discriminatory laws against ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine. The visit was confirmed after negotiations on the rights of the ethnic Hungarian minority living in Ukraine. Budapest has repeatedly accused Kyiv of discriminating against the Hungarian ethnic minority in southwestern Ukraine. Ukraine says it has addressed all Hungarian concerns about the language rights of ethnic Hungarians. (Source: intelliNews *)
* bne IntelliNews, a news wire agency and media company. Headquarters Berlin, Germany
Bosnia and Herzegovina
02 July 2024 Members of parliaments of Serbia and Serb entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) today formed a joint “Parliamentary Forum” tasked to make proposals to institutions of both sides, at the moment when secessionist threats and moves by the leadership of the entity are increasing. (Source: dtt-net *)
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Russia
July 2, 2024 Russia claimed today to have destroyed five Ukrainian military jets in a strike on an air base near the central Ukrainian city of Myrgorod, around 150 kilometers from the Russian border. Ukraine has not said where it will base F-16s. (Source: defensepost *)
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Ukraine
(Tuesday), 2 July 2024 Viktor Orbán arrived in Ukraine today for an unannounced visit having just taken over as rotating president of the European Union. The EU opened membership talks for Ukraine the week before Hungary assumed the EU Council Presidency. For the next six months his position as head of the European Council means Mr Orbán has an influential role as a figurehead for Europe. He came to Ukraine on his second day in that role for discussions, saying there was a need to solve previous disagreements and focus on the future. Mr Orbán previously slowed agreement on a €50bn ($54bn) EU aid package designed to support Ukraine in its defence against Russia. He has been a critic of Western support for Ukraine and is seen as the European leader closest to Russian President Putin. This was Mr Orbán's first visit to Ukraine in 12 years, although he has met Mr Putin repeatedly during that time. While in Kyiv, the Hungarian prime minister said a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could speed up negotiations to end the war that followed Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. "My first trip has taken me here because the issue of peace is important not only for Ukraine, but for the whole of Europe. This war that you are suffering is deeply impacting European security," Mr Orbán said. "I have asked the president to consider whether... a quick ceasefire could be used to speed up peace negotiations...", Mr Orbán stressed in his own statement. "I am grateful for his frank dialogue and his answers." President Zelensky did not publicly respond to those comments. In his statement following their meeting, Mr Zelensky said it was 'very important to have Europe’s support for Ukraine maintained at sufficient level… it’s important for co-operation between all the neighbours in Europe to become more meaningful and mutually beneficial'. The two leaders also discussed bilateral issues including the 100,000 ethnic Hungarians who reside in Ukraine. Mr Orbán said the two countries were determined to put past disagreements behind them, and that he was reassured progress was being made on the rights of the ethnic Hungarians. During his joint appearance with President Zelensky the body language between them was not warm and neither took questions from the media after they gave their statements. Later, in a post on X, Ukraine's leader said Mr Orbán's visit to Ukraine was a "clear signal to all of us of the importance of unity in Europe and taking collective steps'. 'We discussed the path to a just, lasting, and fair peace.' Ukraine's Foreign Minister Kuleba said his country was open to 'work with everyone and solve problems'. “During the visit, President Zelensky had a candid but constructive discussion with Prime Minister Orbán about ways to achieve a just peace, not simply a ceasefire or peace talks.' 'Many Ukrainians believe a ceasefire would simply cement Russia’s hold over territory it has taken from Ukraine and, if negotiations were to take place, they would prefer them to be conducted from a position of strength rather than on the back foot'. (Source: bbc *)
* BBC, The British Broadcasting Corporation - a British public service broadcaster headquartered in London, England.
July 02, 2024 Ukraine has fewer than four weeks to strike a deal with its creditors or risk a default that could seriously harm the economic recovery of the war-ravaged country. Two years ago, Ukraine's private foreign bondholders had agreed to suspend debt wartime repayments - a let-off worth around 15 percent of the country's annual GDP. However, that agreement expires on August 1. If no restructuring deal is reached, Kyiv will have to either arrange an extension of the moratorium expiring on August 1 or default. A default would drain the willingness of Western voters to keep underwriting the conflict. A consortium of foreign bondholders, including BlackRock BLK and Pimco, will urge Ukraine to resume interest payments on its debt next year. Defaulting on the estimated $20 billion of outstanding private bonds could jeopardize future funding and divert focus from fighting against Russia. A deal within a month appears unlikely. (Source: miamiherald */ NewsWeek))
* Miami Herald, an American daily newspaper, headquartered in Miami-Dade County, Florida.
NATO
July 2, 2024 On July 9–11, the leaders of NATO will gather in Washington, D.C., for a historic summit, 75 years on since the alliance’s founding in 1949. The alliance is facing a war in Europe 'amid several global crises'. According to Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general, the Washington summit will focus on three major topics. The first is boosting allied defense and deterrence, 'NATO’s core business.' The second is supporting Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself, 'the most urgent' agenda item. The third is continuing to strengthen NATO’s global partnerships, 'especially in the Indo-Pacific.' The summit will also be Stoltenberg’s last, as he hands over the reins to current Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte. NATO’s agenda will also be competing for airtime with the U.S. presidential race. Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO’s main priority has been to strengthen defense and deterrence. Two years ago after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, NATO agreed to a new strategic concept at the Madrid summit that built on existing efforts. One year later, in Vilnius, allies agreed to new plans to meet that vision. Since Madrid, NATO allies have hiked up defense spending, boosted forward defense, increased high-readiness forces, modernized command and control, transformed collective defense exercising, and successfully integrated new allies Finland and Sweden. All this means NATO is ready to 'fight tonight.' The question remains as to whether NATO is ready to fight - and thereby deter - a protracted war, like the one in Ukraine. This is most relevant in Europe, 'to strengthen the European pillar' of NATO. 'The Washington summit will focus on implementing these plans to deter armed attack and defend the alliance'. 'NATO allies will take stock of the progress of the Defense Production Action Plan agreed on in Vilnius and likely commit to a new pledge to boost their industrial capacity'. 'Here, allied leaders will need to agree to four 'mores': more cash, more combat power, more capabilities, and more cooperation'. More cash means continued increases in European defense spending beyond the 2 percent of GDP target set by NATO allies a decade ago. More combat power means converting this spending into military outputs more efficiently while 'addressing personnel shortfalls across the alliance'. More capabilities means filling known gaps in critical capabilities, such as air and missile defense, long-range fires, air transport, military mobility, cyber defense, and space-based capabilities. 'More cooperation means reversing the decline in collaboration required to generate the industrial capacity allies will need to equip their own growing forces while continuing to help Ukraine'. 'In the margins of the summit', the U.S. Chamber of Commerce will also host a NATO Summit Defense Industry Forum in Washington on July 9. To complement stronger conventional deterrence, allies will also look to boost their defenses against hybrid threats such as cyberattacks and damage to critical infrastructure. Russia has stepped up these attacks in recent weeks to undermine further support for Ukraine. This is why NATO defense ministers recently agreed on “response options for Russia’s hostile actions against Allies,' with Stoltenberg confirming “Russia’s campaign will not deter us from supporting Ukraine.' Allies will return to this agenda in Washington, with the main focus likely to be on protecting critical undersea infrastructure. Ukraine is unlikely to receive a formal invitation to join the NATO alliance in Washington. Kyiv’s ambitions for deeper European integration moved forward last week when it began formal accession talks with the European Union. The EU also signed a new 'Joint Security Commitment' to support Ukraine 'for the long term,' while the G7 nations agreed to loan Ukraine more than $50 billion in immobilized Russian assets. NATO’s own package for Ukraine will comprise three parts: language, coordination, and assistance. The language regarding Ukraine’s membership will need to build on the Vilnius pledge that 'Ukraine’s future is in NATO' - senior U.S. officials have referred to the Washington package as a 'strong bridge' toward membership that is 'well-lit, short, straight, unimpeded.' Negotiations on the exact wording of the final summit communiqué will likely continue until the last minute - allies will want to avoid arguing with Ukraine in public like they did at last year’s Vilnius summit. 'The summit will need to demonstrate that the Ukraine package is more than a metaphor'. This is where NATO’s enhanced role in coordinating support for Ukraine comes in. When he met with Zelensky last week, Stoltenberg confirmed he expected allies to 'agree for NATO to take the lead in coordination and provision of security assistance and training for Ukraine.' To date, that role has been filled by the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group of 50 nations, manned by around 300 soldiers at the U.S. Army’s European headquarters in Wiesbaden, Germany. Earlier this month NATO defense ministers confirmed they will establish a new NATO command in Wiesbaden, with nearly 700 allied personnel (including at logistics hubs in Poland). Although Hungary agreed to the initiative, it will not take part or contribute owing to concerns about preserving the “defensive character” of NATO. Stoltenberg later confirmed: 'These efforts do not make NATO a party to the conflict, but they will enhance our support to Ukraine to uphold its right to self-defence.' Discussions are also underway to send a senior NATO civilian representative or envoy to Kyiv to improve coordination, as it did in Afghanistan. The Washington summit may also yield further commitments of practical assistance to Ukraine. Following the G7 “joint declaration of support for Ukraine” agreed on in Vilnius, all seven nations have signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine - including a 10-year agreement with the United States and another with Japan. By the summit it is expected that 20 NATO allies will have concluded bilateral agreements with Ukraine. South Korea is even reportedly considering a similar agreement. NATO allies may go much further in Washington if they agree to 'Stoltenberg’s idea for a five-year, $100 billion commitment of military aid to Ukraine'. Negotiations over the details of this ambition could go down to the wire. "One reported proposal is for allies to commit to maintain current levels of support (around $40 billion annually), with future contributions proportionate to GDP, similar to the 2 percent defense spending pledge'. According to Admiral Bauer, chair of NATO’s Military Committee, these measures will further signal NATO’s long term support for Ukraine while making assistance more stable and predictable. 'To follow through on their Vilnius pledge, NATO allies will be keen to put Ukraine on a path in Washington toward becoming a militarily capable and interoperable partner so that when the political moment comes, Ukraine’s forces can seamlessly integrate into NATO’s - just like Finland and Sweden before them'. ' As U.S. assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs O’Brien confirmed, Indo-Pacific partnerships will be a primary theme of the Washington summit'. For example, 40 percent of Europe’s trade passes through an increasingly contested South China Sea. NATO’s four established Indo-Pacific partners - Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea - have already become regular participants at allied summits. 'At the summit, NATO allies and Indo-Pacific partners may commit to further support to Ukraine', share best practices on countering Russian and Chinese cyber operations, combating Chinese economic coercion, and stepping up defense industrial cooperation. Representatives from all of NATO’s 40+ partners will attend the summit, including the European Union and countries closer to home that are vulnerable to Russian aggression on Europe’s eastern flank such as Moldova, Georgia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. NATO leaders are aware of Russia’s continued pressure to destabilize these countries. NATO’s cooperation is coordinated through the Defence and Related Security Capacity Building Initiative. Mark Rutte, outgoing prime minister of the Netherlands, was appointed NATO secretary general on Wednesday, June 26, 2024. Rutte enjoyed the support of the United States, the United Kingdom, and other European major powers. His appointment risked being vetoed by Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán due to Rutte’s controversial statement that 'Hungary has no business being in the European Union anymore.' Orbán recently changed his mind as part of a deal that sees Hungary exempted from providing military aid to Ukraine under NATO for the duration of the war. The likelihood of Rutte’s appointment solidified recently, shortly after his top contender, Romanian president Iohannis, dropped out of the race due to scarce support for his candidacy. As a prime minister, Rutte has viewed Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s aggression as critical for the freedom of Ukrainians 'and the Netherlands' and fundamental for democracy and sovereignty across NATO, channeling more than $3 billion in Dutch military support to Kyiv since 2022. In the past, he strongly championed the idea that Europe should bolster its defense and intelligence capabilities but also acknowledged that U.S. supplies remain critical to achieve this goal. Current secretary general Stoltenberg will remain at the helm for the Washington summit before handing over to Rutte on October 1. How might U.S. domestic politics affect the summit? The U.S. election is highly relevant for NATO allies. Following a contentious recent Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity and the first presidential debate, President Biden and former president Trump are ramping up their campaigns. The two candidates have set out distinct positions on NATO. When he took office in 2021, current president Biden stated that 'America’s alliances are our greatest asset.' 'NATO allies have been at the core of the U.S.-led response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine'. In contrast, the more transactional approach to U.S. alliances taken by Trump - which, according to Trump, led him to encourage Russia 'to do whatever the hell they want' to allies that don’t 'pay your bills' when he was in office - 'has caused widespread concern' in Europe about the NATO policies of a second Trump administration. 'It remains prevalent' despite the significant increases in defense spending made by European allies in recent years - the average spending level across non-U.S. allies is now over 2 percent of their combined GDP, and rising further - which was Trump’s main critique of NATO. Mere days after the conclusion of the summit, Trump will take center stage at the Republican National Convention, to be held from July 15–18 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Source: csis *)
* The Center for Strategic and International Studies, based in Washington, D.C.
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