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Hungary
Saturday 02/04/2022 - 08:31 Viktor Orbán, 58, Hungary's Prime Minister, who has been serving for twelve years now is the EU's longest-serving leader and could on Sunday renew his time at the helm of the eastern country for another four years. His party, Fidesz, currently has a slight lead over the opposition, which banded together to present a single candidate for the top job and in most constituencies. His campaign was, as is now usual, filled with attacks against Brussels - its "imperialist tantrums" and "pro-immigrant bureaucrats" - and thin allusions to a possible Huxit. He cast himself as the protector of traditional - read Christian - European values and promoted an "illiberal democracy" agenda. European Union institutions responded to this barrage of attacks after a while, but they let Orbán get away with them for many, many years. Orbán was shielded by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and by the European People's Party. The centre-right EPP was sharply criticised for how long it took them to condemn Orbán and Fidesz's domestic policies and to proceed with a possible expulsion course. Fidesz is now out of the European People's Party (EPP) group in the parliament, having chosen to leave in March 2021 right before it could get expelled the party had been suspended from the EPP in 2019. "In my view, the Hungarian Fidesz delegation in the European Parliament, and Fidesz when it was in the EPP, strengthened the topics of rule of law, democracy, human rights and women's rights in the EP as a whole and also in the EPP group. This was precisely because Fidesz challenged all of these values so strongly,' Pietikainen, a Finnish EPP MEP, told. "Without the challenging from Fidesz of these values, it could even be that we would now have a less defined and less united position on rule of law, human rights violations or gender equality issues. Sometimes the paradox is that by challenging something you end up strengthening the principle you challenge," she argued. The question before Orbán was expelled from the EPP was would he form a separatist group in the parliament? As Fidesz is not included in any other group, they are independent, they don't have much to say inside of Parliament, their voice is now practically not heard. The constant attacks on the EU it undertook seemed to have boosted MEPs' resolve to protect the bloc as a liberal beacon. The European parliament's MEPs triggered Article 7 proceedings - calling for the suspension of certain rights - against Hungary and Poland in September 2018 over rule of law concerns. While MEPs have triggered Article 7 and have now pushed for the use of the new rule of law mechanism against Hungary to financially sanction member states, nothing much has happened. Action is out of their hands. The Commission acts as the defender of EU legislation. It has launched and won multiple court cases against Budapest over changes in the Hungarian Constitution, the lowering of the retirement age for judges, the crackdown on NGOs and the treatment of migrants and refugees. Yet, not much has changed. The rule of law issue practically off the table due to the Russian aggression on Ukraine. Orbán knows he doesn't need to fear the Commission or sanctions. The EU has many other challenges and you do need the support of Hungary's prime minister for tackling these challenges, so they have to make various compromises. "The rule of law mechanism keeps being postponed and it has been watered down anyway and only applies to some very, very specific violations of rule of law and not a general drift towards authoritarian rule', Enyedi, a professor and senior researcher at the Central European University's Democracy Institute said. Yet even though the Council - especially Poland which has similarly drawn the ire of Brussels - largely protects Orbán from MEPs' wrath. Orbán's veiled references to a Huxit are not seen as credible by his fellow heads of state who are still reeling from the consequences of the UK's departure from the union. The Hungarian government did a lot on its multilateral foreign policy and close ties with Russia and China to demonstrate for the EU institutions that it has other strategic options but these strategic options are not genuine. Neither Russia, nor China, would be ready to provide that sort of financial transfer for Hungary which amounts to 3-4% of its annual GDP. So no, leaving the European Union is not an option. Orbán's shift toward a semi-authoritarian regime may have also impacted the bloc's enlargement - unchanged since the accession of Croatia in 2013. The Hungarian leader has been developing closer ties with leaders in the Western Balkans, where many countries hope one day to become member states. "The very strong ties between Serbian President Vučić and Orbán mean that if Serbia was accepted, the Orbán bloc will get stronger and nobody wants that', Enyedi said. As for Orbán's hope of exporting its "illiberal democracy" model to other member states, this too has largely stalled, mostly because, as is the case in the European Parliament, right-wing parties across the bloc do not actually align on many issues. Even the Visegrád group, comprising the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, has many cracks and these are widening because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine with Warsaw resolutely anti-Russia while Orbán has been much more conciliatory. He put a lot of energy into supporting forces that could undermine liberal democracy in Europe, Enyedi stressed - a Hungarian bank provided a €10.7 million loan to French presidential candidate Le Pen to fund her campaign. He has been trying to build a right-wing alliance for a long time, which was not successful, and actually now, the prospects are not very good, he concluded. (Source: euronews)
April 2, 2022 Viktor Orbán, the prime minister of Hungary, has a strong portfolio of positive qualities. One is charm. In his presence, even critics admit to feeling the man’s powerful magnetism. The extension of charm in professional terms is public relations: Orbán loves PR – and he spares no expense on it. That is one reason the former liberal anti-communist student is set to win his fourth consecutive general election tomorrow. He and his Fidesz party have won five in total, with its first coming in 1998. Fast forward to spring 2010, and they had long rebranded as centre-right conservatives. Orbán returned to power in 2010, with a two thirds constitutional majority in parliament. His administration set about rewriting the constitution (or “fundamental law”) with only superficial cross-party consultation. The result involved wide-ranging changes, ranging from the seemingly innocuous – defining the country as simply “Hungary”, dropping the title of “Republic” – to reforms affecting the appointments of state officials, the judiciary, the constitutional court and election law. The latter was vexatious, with the new 106 single-member constitution boundaries indicating gerrymandering practices. The enactment of the fundamental law can be seen as initiating a long series of battles with the European Commission, European Parliament and other EU bodies over legislation and policies. The European Commission was alerted by the lowering of the retirement age for judges from 70 to 62, widely seen as a way to remove older, less sympathetic figures to Fidesz lawmakers’ conservative ideals. The European Court of Justice later ruled the new mandatory age was incompatible with European law, but very few of the affected judges returned to their former duties. In addition, examples began to emerge of the reduction of independent media outlets; measures against homosexuals; licensing of the tobacco retail sector; recognition of churches; the regulation of NGOs. On the international stage, Hungary’s cosying up to Putin’s Russia – including a €12bn contract to build a new, Russian-designed and funded nuclear power plant – and to China, have raised more questions. By 2020, the European Commission declined to make any payments, access the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (meant to aid EU economies to recover from the Covid pandemic). Budapest protested, claiming the commission’s decision was politically motivated by “left-wing” and “Soros-funded institutions”. Then, Russia invaded Ukraine. With Hungary’s eastern border abutting Ukraine, Orbán’s reaction has been to support all initial EU sanctions against Russia. He has refused to agree any moves to cut energy ties to Moscow, claiming it would cause a disproportionate burden on the population and economy, as Hungary is largely dependent on Russian gas for its energy needs. While the opposition claims the election is about whether Hungary moves towards the West and democracy or the east, Orbán has cast his election campaign as a choice between himself as peacemaker and the opposition as warmongers - he is the author of “strategic calm”, and is the only guarantor and protector of Hungarian security. This has cemented his ratings in the polls, putting him on track to win on 3 April. Where will this leave the EU as it tries to cope with the threat of Russia? If Brussels wants his cooperation over Russia, it can hardly be punishing Orbán by holding back EU funds. But having given a slew of pre-election handouts, state coffers are largely empty. So Orbán arguably needs EU funding as much as the EU needs him to help tame Putin. Orbán and his PR operation will be working at full output, both at home and abroad to argue his case. (Source: TheNewStatesman)
Romania
April 2, 2022 9:03 am ET The military base Mihail Kogalniceanu, Romania, near the Black Sea, until recently was little more than a stopover. The base is now part of a new front line for NATO in Romania, which shares a 400-mile-long border with Ukraine. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, fears have increased that the conflict could spread beyond Ukraine’s borders. The cornerstones of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization states that an attack on one of its 30 members represents an attack on all. Russia’s invasion has prompted the alliance to place an unprecedented number of troops, planes and vehicles on alert. The alliance has deployed 40,000 troops on its eastern flank, along with significant air and naval assets. Mr. Stoltenberg has noted that Russian President Putin has said he wants NATO pushed back from its eastern positions, but the invasion has instead brought a greater number of alliance troops to his doorstep. The military base on Romania’s Black Sea coast is bustling with troops from U.S., France and Belgium as part of new defensive reinforcements. The troops are part of four new battle groups recently deployed by NATO in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia. The battle groups’ mission is to reinforce NATO’s eastern defenses and deter Russian aggression. They are there to complement the forces that NATO sent to Poland and the Baltic countries after Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Every day, helicopters and jet fighters fly overhead and tanks roll across empty fields as part of regular military exercises. U.S. troops have for years used the aging compound’s airstrip as a transit point for supplying operations in Afghanistan. In recent weeks American and allied militaries have deployed more than 1,800 personnel, hundreds of vehicles and other military equipment to the wind-swept fields. The base is now home to about 3,000 soldiers, including around 1,900 Americans, some of whom have recently been deployed from Germany. More soldiers are expected to arrive in the coming months, according to U.S. and French officials. Col. Minguet is the commander of a new NATO force that includes about 500 French and 300 Belgian troops. Last week, NATO started deploying troops in other parts of Romania as part of large-scale military exercises, Col. Minguet said. Eventually, some troops could be stationed in other military bases across the country, he added. The base includes a post office, a theater and stores. In the nearby town of Mihail Kogălniceanu, for many locals Russia has long been a very distant threat. But its invasion of neighboring Ukraine has raised fears of an imminent attack on Romanian soil. Codrin, who owns a local grocery store, welcomes NATO’s protection. “If the base wasn’t here, the danger would be bigger,” she said. Others disagree. Diaconescu, a 28-year-old delivery man, said the new military presence adds fuel to the fire. “We are a target now,” he said. “Why do they come here to disturb us?” (Source: TheWallStreetJournal)
European Commission
April 2, 2022 Many Ukrainians who fled the war have found it impossible to exchange their hryvnias for euros or other currencies in their host country in the EU. This is because the National Bank of Ukraine was forced to suspend the exchange of hryvnia banknotes for foreign cash in order to protect Ukraine’s limited foreign currency reserves. As a consequence, credit institutions in EU Member States were unwilling to carry out the exchange due to the limited convertibility of hryvnia notes and exposure to exchange rate risk. Yesterday the European Commission adopted a proposal for a Council Recommendation on the conversion of hryvnia banknotes into the currency of host Member States by persons fleeing the war in Ukraine. 'Some Member States are considering introducing national schemes that support limited hryvnia convertibility per person and the Commission’s objective is to promote a consistent approach to such schemes,' says the press release. “The schemes should provide for a maximum limit of 10,000 hryvnias per person, without charge, at the official exchange rate published by the National Bank of Ukraine. The duration of such schemes should be at least three months.” (Source: EUNeighboursEast)
Russia
0839 GMT (1639 HKT) April 2, 2022 "Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics," military maxim attributed to Gen. Bradley, an American general during World War II. Russian President Putin often evokes the Soviet Union's epic defeat of Nazi Germany during World War II to justify his country's invasion of Ukraine. He hasn't paid enough attention to the lessons of the "Great Patriotic War" he reveres. Ukraine has become a graveyard for Russian tanks - Ukrainian soldiers are using everything from drones to Javelins to destroy tank convoys. The once-vaunted Russian army has become bogged down in Ukraine not just because of resistance but by something more prosaic: logistics. Putin has struggled to feed, fuel and equip his army. There have been reports of Russian troops looting banks and supermarkets, tanks running out of fuel, and soldiers using substandard forms of military communication - like smartphones - that have contributed to what Ukraine says are the deaths of at least seven Russian generals. "The evidence suggests that Putin thought he could win a quick victory with the deployment of special forces and airborne units," says Johnson, a professor of military history at the University of Notre Dame. Brutality can backfire in war. Putin has potential allies in Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are two Slavic nations that share religious and cultural ties. Many Ukrainians have relatives in Russia and speak the language. And there has historically been more allegiance to Russia in the eastern part of the country. But the Russian army's brutality, though, is having the opposite effect. Russia's army has been accused of bombing hospitals, shopping malls, apartment buildings and a theater, been accused of trying to starve a Ukrainian city into submission by blocking humanitarian relief. Many Soviets despised and feared Stalin. He murdered about four million Ukrainians by starving them during one infamous period known as the Holodomor. That's why some Soviets initially welcomed Hitler as a liberator, he had many potential allies in the Soviet Union. Stalin was so hated that roughly a million Soviets served in the German army, says Johnson, the Notre Dame historian. But Hitler's brutal treatment of civilians quickly stiffened Soviet resistance. "Instead of taking advantage of large numbers of people who might been sympathetic or at least think the Germans were better than the Soviets," Johnson says, "Hitler rapidly alienated all those groups." An estimated 26 million Soviets died during World War II. One was Putin's two-year-old brother, Viktor, who died after the German army lay siege to a Russian city, blocking the delivery of food and water. Last summer, Putin published a lengthy essay entitled "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" that sought to explain that there was an artificial division between the two countries and that "true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia." Some of the strongest reaction to Putin's rhetoric stems from his claim that the Russian army is striving for the "de-Nazification" of Ukraine and seeks to protect people who have been "abused by the genocide of the Kyiv regime." Putin's claim about "de-Nazification" is trying to justify invading a democratic country - led by a Jewish president who lost relatives in the Holocaust - by claiming he's there to fight Nazis. By telling lies that Ukraine is run by Nazis bent on genocide, Putin is making a mockery of people who survived the Holocaust, says Snyder, author of "On Tyranny." We don't know how the war in Ukraine will end. Putin could still prevail. He could split the nation and seize the energy-rich resources of Eastern Ukraine and consolidate his hold on the country's coastline. In war no one side has a monopoly on brutality. A far-right group with a history of neo-Nazi leanings has played a crucial role in Ukrainian resistance. Ukrainian soldiers have been accused of shooting Russian prisoners. If Ukraine somehow preserves its independence and its territory, a Ukrainian victory will be depicted as another Great Patriotic War. (Source: CNN)
Ukraine
April 2, 2022 12:12 AM GMT+2 Ukraine recaptured more territory around Kyiv as Russian soldiers moved away from the capital. Regional governors in Kyiv and Chernihiv said Russians were pulling out of areas in both those provinces, some heading back across borders to Belarus and Russia. Russia has painted its draw-down of forces near Kyiv as a goodwill gesture in peace talks. Ukraine and its allies say Russian forces have been forced to regroup after suffering heavy losses. The negotiations led to a prisoner exchange yesterday, with the release of 86 Ukrainian troops, said Tymoshenko, deputy head of the Ukrainian president's office said. Ukrainian forces went on to take back Bucha, its mayor said yesterday in a video. In Irpin, a commuter suburb northwest of Kyiv now back in Ukrainian hands, volunteers and emergency workers carried the dead on stretchers out of the rubble. In southwest Ukraine, anti-air defences thwarted an attempted attack on critical infrastructure in the Black Sea port of Odesa, the Ukrainian military said. Odesa's governor, Marchenko, said three missiles fired from an Iskander missile system in Crimea had hit a residential district, causing casualties. Russia denies targeting civilians. Russia says the southeastern region of Donbas, where it has backed separatists since 2014, is now the focus of its war efforts. The besieged and bombarded Azov Sea port city of Mariupol has been its main target there. Conditions yesterday made it impossible to go ahead with a plan to evacuate civilians from Mariupol, the International Committee of the Red Cross said. A total of 6,266 people were evacuated from Ukrainian cities through humanitarian corridors yesterday, said Tymoshenko. In the Russian border city of Belgorod, a logistics hub for its war effort, Moscow said Ukrainian helicopters struck a fuel depot, causing a huge fire which destroyed several oil tanks. Ukraine denied responsibility for the incident. Kremlin spokesman Peskov said the incident could jeopardise Ukrainian-Russian peace talks, which resumed today by video link. Russia will strengthen its western borders, Peskov said later. A Russian threat to cut off gas supplies to Europe unless buyers paid with roubles by yesterday was averted for now, with Moscow saying it would not halt supplies until new payments are due later in April. United Nations aid chief Griffiths will travel to Moscow today and then to Kyiv as the U.N. pursues a humanitarian ceasefire in Ukraine, U.N. Secretary-General Guterres told. (Source: Reuters)
Saturday 2 April 2022, 9:14am In the northern city of Chernihiv surgeon says Russian pledge to cut back military activity in the region is false. Russia said it would reduce “military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv," after talks in March 28. There has continued to be heavy shelling in cities. "They're nearby, they destroy our city, they destroy the electric, they destroy water, they destroy our supermarkets,' Bondarenko said. "We don't have electricity, we don't have water. We have a little gas. Once or twice in a day our government sends us a little water in cars," he said. It was "perfect" if they had water for five minutes or light from a diesel generator that meant they were also able to recharge the phone. He said they had bandages and some antibiotics at the hospital he worked at, where they were treating badly injured patients wounded by the shelling. Explosions sounded in the background and he moved to a place of safety. (Source: ITV)
April 2, 2022 As talks between the nations resumed yesterday, some Russian forces continued pulling away from around Kyiv. They are likely resupplying, Ukrainian and Western officials have said. President Zelenskyy said Russia is leaving a treacherous landscape in its wake as the invading forces retreat. 'They are mining the whole territory, they are mining homes, mining equipment, even the bodies of people who were killed," Zelenskyy said in a video late yesterday. He urged residents to wait to resume their normal lives until land mines could be cleared and the danger of more shelling has passed. Ukrainian troops retaking territory in the north carefully navigated streets. They attached cables to the dead bodies of civilians to pull them off the street, fearing they were boobytrapped, and placed red rags on remnants of unexploded ordnance. (Source: TheAssociatedPress)
April 2, 2022 European Parliament President Metsola yesterday visited Kyiv to express the European Union’s support for the Ukrainian people and condemn the Russian attack. She travelled on the invitation of the Chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament, Stefanchuk. Metsola made three promises to the Members of the Ukrainian Rada. She said Europe would not let this aggression unchallenged, those responsible will be held accountable. 'We need more and harder sanctions,' she added. She also confirmed the support of the European Parliament to Ukraine’s aspiration to become a candidate for EU accession. And she promised that “we will take care of the Ukrainian families that have been forced to flee until the day they can safely return to their homes”. She added the EU would create the Ukraine Solidarity Trust Fund and organise an International Donors Conference to help rebuild Ukraine. Metsola met President Zelenskyy, Prime Minister Shmyhal, Chairman of the Rada Stefanchuk, and representatives of the political groups of the Rada, among others. (Source: EUNeighboursEast)
United Kingdom
16:29, 2 APR 2022 Russian ambassador Kelin has warned that the arrival of British weapons will make the conflict in Ukraine 'even bloodier' and stressed that British arms convoys will be 'legitimate targets' as soon as the high-precision weapons cross the Ukrainian border. They exacerbate the situation, Kelin has told TASS news agency, after the UK's Defence Secretary, Wallace, announced the successful deployment of British-made Starstreak anti-air systems in Ukraine. Britain will soon be sending smart weapons similar to the Switchblade “kamikaze” drones sent to the Ukrainians by the US. The UK has so far given Ukraine weapons and other equipment worth over £100 million according to documents published by Chancellor Sunak on March 23. Mr Wallace appeared to tell two Russian hoax callers last week that Britain had sent over 4, ,000 missiles to Ukraine and supplies were running low at home. Responding to the apparent gaffe, Mr Wallace said: "Things must be going so badly for the Kremlin that they are now resorting to pranks and video fakes." As well as weaponry, medical supplies are also being sent to Ukraine. South Central Ambulance Service (SCAS) said the supplies could maintain a field hospital for up to a fortnight. (Source: DailyStar)
United States
April 2, 2022 The Biden administration intends to work with allies to provide Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine to help its defense in the eastern Donbas region. It would mark the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine in February that the U.S. has worked to transfer tanks to Ukraine. Unnamed officials said the T-72 tanks would be delivered within 'days, not weeks.' The tanks would allow Ukraine forces to conduct long-range artillery strikes on Russian targets in Donbas, which borders Russia. The move was requested by President Zelenskyy, who held an hourlong phone call with President Biden his week. The U.S. would act as an intermediary. Zelenskyy last week singled out tanks as equipment needed by his country. The transfer of tanks to the heavily contested Donbas region comes as Russia has appeared to have shifted its military focus away from the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. (Source: USAToday)
April 2, 2022 The United States has provided more than $1.6 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion of its neighbor. The U.S. Defense Department has announced it is allotting $300 million in "security assistance' for Ukraine to bolster the country's defense capabilities. Pentagon press secretary Kirby said yesterday that the gear in the new package includes laser-guided rocket systems, unmanned aircraft, armored vehicles, night-vision devices, ammunition and medical supplies. The U.S. also continues to work with its allies and partners to identify and provide to the Ukrainians additional capabilities, he said. (Source: RFERL)
Globalization
Sat 2 Apr 2022 08.26 BST How war in Ukraine is affecting food supply in Africa and the Middle East? Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could mean less bread on the table in Egypt, Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere in the Arab world, where millions already struggle to survive. Prices of basics such as oil and wheat are shooting up and shortages are showing on supermarket shelves in Lebanon, Somalia, Egypt. Lebanon already mired in economic crisis and battling inflation before the war broke out in Ukraine, now finds itself grappling with even higher price rises for wheat and cooking oil. The fears around wheat imports - more than 60% of which came last year from Ukraine - are particularly acute because Lebanon’s reserves are limited. The huge explosion that tore through Beirut’s port in August 2020 and killed more than 200 people also destroyed the main grain silos. The country is thought to have enough wheat to last only about six weeks. The government has said it is trying to secure fresh imports from India, the US and Kazakhstan – all of which would entail grain travelling much longer distances on increasingly expensive shipping routes. Shortages are already starting to show on supermarket shelves. Some bakeries are rationing bread. “From 24 February to 21 March we have seen a general increase of 14% on food prices,” says Hoxha, country director for Care International. “For bread, for example, it’s 27%. For white sugar it’s 72%. For sunflower oil it’s 83%.” Fears are also mounting over the cost of fuel, essential to the supply of electricity and water. Lebanon’s 1.5 million Syrian refugees live in abject poverty and are dependent on food aid. The decision of some countries to bar exports has exacerbated the problem. Last week the Lebanese prime minister, Najib Mikati, asked Algeria to exempt it from a ban on sugar exports imposed in mid-March. Hoxha says Care tried to buy vegetable oil from Turkey but had been unable to do so. “This will be one of the most difficult Ramadans that Lebanon has faced,” says Hoxha. The worst drought for four decades; hunger so widespread that famine could develop within months; a resurgence in violence by jihadi terrorists seeking to overthrow the fragile government: even before 24 February, Somalia had more than enough on its plate. Now, the country is having to contend with the skyrocketing price of staple goods. Before February 24, food prices had already been increasing because of the drought, with livestock dying or decreasing in quality, and harvests of cereals such as sorghum well below long-term averages. “A week ago, the 20-litre jerrycan of cooking oil was $25, today it’s about $50. A litre of gasoline was $0.64 and today it runs about $1.80 – it’s crazy,” Osman, a trader, told this week. The drought gripping the country has been building since October 2020. The UN has warned that Somalia could be tipped into famine this year if the rains expected in the next few weeks aren’t plentiful enough. In 2011, the last time Somalia saw famine, almost 260,000 people are believed to have died. In Somalia about 1.4 million children under five are thought to be acutely malnourished and more than 4 million people are reliant on emergency food aid. While it does not depend as heavily as some countries on wheat imports, Somalia has many other reasons to fear the ripple effect of the war in Ukraine. Wilton, a spokesperson for the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP), says most of the agency’s food assistance in Somalia was done through cash transfers, which were highly vulnerable to market fluctuations. WFP in Somalia is “just about” to receive the last shipment of food – a delivery of yellow split peas – that left the port of Odesa before it was forced to shut, Wilton adds. “After that, we currently don’t have any visibility on further expected shipments. So yes, there is a real concern that scarcity of some of these commodities coming into Somalia and the region could drive prices up.” The bread is so central to the Egyptian way of life that it is known as aish – literally, “life”. For decades, tens of millions of Egyptians have been able to pop to their local bakery and pick up subsidised flatbread for just a few pennies. Soon, however, that fixed price could rise, as the government seeks to respond to the rise in wheat costs. Consumers are already seeing big increases in the cost of non-subsidised goods. Egypt is the world’s top importer of wheat. Last year, Egypt imported more than 70% of its wheat from either Russia or Ukraine. The first challenge for the state is to seek alternative suppliers away from the Black Sea. This week, France’s agriculture minister said his country would “stand by” Egypt “to make sure it gets the wheat that it needs in the coming months”. Wheat from France has in the past been considered too moist. Other big exporters such as Australia or Canada bring with them significant extra costs in terms of transportation, in a time of high fuel prices. Last month, the minister of supply, Moselhy, implored Egyptians not to worry, saying that the country’s stocks were sufficient for at least four months and that there was “a political will and vision to maintain wheat reserves”. The local harvest, he added, was expected to bring in 1m tonnes more than anticipated. However, with the average price per tonne of imported wheat about $100 more expensive now than last year, many also expect the government to act on the subsidised loafs. The programme had already been a target before the Ukraine invasion; last year President Sisi declared: “It’s not realistic that I sell 20 loaves for the same price as a cigarette … This must stop.” Now such a move seems inevitable. But in a country where about a third of the population live below the poverty line, it remains to be seen if the government is prepared for the social ramifications. “When prices jump, and poor people cannot feed their families, they will be on the streets,” warns Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, last weekend. (Source: TheGuardian)
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