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Hungary
Friday, April 1, 2022 Only weeks ago, Hungary’s prime minister was proclaiming that Sunday’s parliamentary election would determine whether his country could be defended from the “gender madness” overtaking the West. As war rages in neighboring Ukraine, Viktor Orbán’s strategy for winning a fourth consecutive term has shifted away. Orbán - cautiously balancing his Western alliances and economic ties with Russia - describes an existential choice the peace and security embodied by him and his Fidesz party, or the threat of war and chaos. “If we want peace, we must vote for Fidesz,” Orbán said at a campaign rally in March 29. “If we want to risk our peace, we can vote for the left.” Orbán - the longest serving head of government in the European Union - will on Sunday face a serious challenge to his power. Opinion polls forecast a close race, with a small lead for Fidesz. United for Hungary, a diverse coalition of six opposition parties, has put aside ideological differences to create a front against Orbán and his political and economic system, which they say is rife with corruption, graft and a pervasive erosion of democratic freedoms. The coalition has nominated Márki-Zay, a 49-year-old economist and mayor of a small Hungarian city to face Orbán as its candidate for prime minister. Speaking at a rally in the capital Budapest in March 29, Márki-Zay, a self-described Christian, said Orbán had created a “single-party state” and the election is about Hungary’s future as a Western-style democracy. “We strongly belong to the West, belong to NATO, and belong to the EU,” he said. Orbán, 58, has long been accused by critics in the EU, his policies have made Hungary the subject of European court proceedings. The EU withhold billions in funding over concerns that his government was flouting the rule of law. Orbán - who for more than a decade nurtured close political and economic ties with Russia under President Putin, giving him a reputation as the Kremlin’s closest ally in the EU - has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And declared his country’s neutrality in the conflict. “Hungarian policy is neither Ukrainian-friendly nor Russian-friendly: it’s Hungarian-friendly,” Orbán said in a radio interview on March 27. He has voted for most EU sanctions against Russia. He allowed the deployment of NATO troops into Hungary. Orbán’s government has refused to supply Ukraine with weapons or allow their transit across the Hungarian-Ukrainian border. It has antagonized President Zelenskyy. The opposition parties have tried to show to the Hungarian population what the cost of 'Russian friendship' is by pointing out Orbán’s policies. As election day approaches, Márki-Zay continues to make campaign stops around the country, bringing United For Hungary’s message to voters in the face of what he calls a media blackout on the opposition. Hungary’s government is arguing against sanctioning Russian energy imports - such a move would destroy the country’s economy. It has used both party and state resources to campaign on the claim that the opposition coalition, if it wins on Sunday, would deploy weapons and soldiers into the conflict in Ukraine and draw Hungary into war. Recent polling shows that the vote is likely to be the closest in recent years, though Fidesz maintains a slim lead in most measurements. A survey by Zavecz Research conducted between March 23 and 25 showed support for Orbán’s government at 44% compared to 42% for the opposition. The poll’s margin of error was 3.5%. (Source: AP)
01/04/2022 - 09:26 After a campaign dominated by Russia's invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, Hungarians will vote in a general election on Sunday, April 3. Polls are giving the edge to incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. His Fidesz party will face a united opposition coalition. All options are on the table. The mobilisation in the last few days will be key in turning out the estimated half a million undecided voters in the country of 9.7 million. Today Orbán, 58, will hold a final rally in the town of Székesfehervár. His rival from the opposition coalition Márki-Zay will hold his last event in the capital tomorrow. Orbán will doubtless use the opportunity to drive home his message that he represents "peace and security", in contrast to the "dangerous" opposition. Hungary has neutral stance on the war. Traditional ally Poland's view is that Russian gas imports could be phased out by the end of the year. There was no feasible way to make Hungary less dependent on them. While going along with support for Kiev at an EU level, Orbán's government has refused to let weapons for Ukraine cross its territory. It's basic question: whether Hungary should be involved or remain out. This message has been much more effective than the opposition's criticism of the government. President Zelensky singled Orbán out for criticism. In return the Hungarian government has accused Ukraine of attempting to interfere in April 3's election. Orbán is the seasoned doyen of European politics. Hungary has enjoyed economic and social success over the past 12 years. Fidesz's propaganda machinery is far more effective than the opposition's capability to reach voters. The campaign has seen the government cap energy prices and promise voters various financial sweeteners. The opposition says Fidesz's economic management has left the country ill-equipped to combat galloping inflation. It is eating up these measures. As for Márki-Zay, 49, he is a mere figurehead who has no party and no MPs. He gained prominence by defeating Fidesz to become mayor of Hódmezővásárhely. He says the country must choose the path "of Europe, not of the East'. He has had the tough task of leading a coalition of parties ranging from the right-wing through to liberals, greens and social democrats, united by the goal of removing Orbán. The election will be held at the same time as a referendum on LGBT issues. The polling will for the first time be monitored by a team of more than 200 international observers who will monitor the fairness of the vote. (Source: France24)
European Union
April 1, 2022 9:46 am The EU-China ‘April Fool’s Day’ summit. Thanks to Putin’s war and a frozen investment deal, the EU’s summit with China will be among the toughest. Diplomats preparing for the summit say they expect the two EU leaders to spell out "very clearly" to Xi that the Russian aggression is "central" to the future of EU-China relations. The big question is how closely the Chinese will stick to Russian President Putin in his assault on Ukraine. Xi has called Putin his "best friend" and EU leaders say they have 'very reliable evidence' that Beijing has considered sending military support to Putin's troops in Ukraine. China has also taken to blaming NATO for the crisis and has supported the Kremlin's desire to rewrite the future security architecture of Europe - much against the wishes of the EU and NATO. China may have hoped to focus more on cooperation in the summit, such as climate change. But these issues of potential common ground will all take a back seat now. Officials say von der Leyen and Michel will tell Xi "how much the population in China cherish the economic fruits with the West and have a yearning for luxury products made in Europe' - which is clearly a warning of what might follow should he 'breach the current balance position and over-support Putin.' Beijing has made clear that while it doesn't want the war to go on, it's not going to ditch the guys who started it. In a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in March 30, his Chinese counterpart Wang said the two countries "have withstood the new test of evolving international landscape, remained on the right course and shown resilient development momentum." Brussels hit a hard pause on an EU-China investment deal last May, stuffing the product of seven years of negotiations in the freezer amid tit-for-tat sanctions related to China's crackdown against its Muslim minority in Xinjiang. As long as members of the European Parliament are under sanctions, this is not moving an inch. No progress is expected at the summit. Beijing has imposed a trade embargo on Lithuania, after the Baltic nation and Taiwan deepened their diplomatic and trade ties. China sees this as a breach of the "One China" policy. The EU, which has sole competence over trade issues, took action on behalf of Lithuania against China at the World Trade Organization. Diplomats said this week that China’s adherence to International Labor Organization standards are still a sticking point. Health is definitely on the menu - but don't expect any serious debate on the origins of COVID-19. China last year reacted with outrage to a World Health Organization plan to audit labs, accusing the probe of "arrogance toward science.' Western leaders are calling for new international health rules that would require countries to be more transparent about an outbreak. In late February, Russia objected to such a proposal from the U.S., on sovereignty grounds. (Source: Politico)
Europol
(April 1, 2022) In view of protecting the European Union and Ukrainian refugees from criminal threats, Europol has deployed operational teams to the frontline countries neighbouring Ukraine within the framework of the Agency’s response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Europol now has operational teams in Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Moldova, with an upcoming deployment planned to Hungary, coming at the request of these countries, These teams, comprised of Europol specialists and guest officers, support the national authorities with secondary security checks and investigations at the European external borders to identify criminals and terrorists trying to enter the EU in the refugee flow and exploit the situation. These operational teams are also gathering information in the field, which is used to develop criminal threat assessments at the European level and to support investigations. Europol has already carried out such a service at the request of EU Member States in the migration hotspots in the Mediterranean as of 2016. This complements Europol’s active engagement with Ukrainian law enforcement through the Ukrainian liaison officer present at Europol’s headquarters in the Netherlands. All this intelligence gathering activity is allowing Europol to anticipate developments and coordinate operational activities with EU Member States to respond to the activities of criminal groups seeking to take advantage the war in Ukraine. (Source: Europol)
Ukraine
April 1, 2022 8:45 PM GMT+2 At least 31 people have been confirmed killed as a result of March 30's rocket strike on the regional administration building in southern city of Mykolaiv, local emergency services said in an online post today. Rescue workers had to pull victims from the rubble after the attack blasted a hole through the side of the building. (Source: Reuters)
April 1, 2022 10:07 AM GMT+2 Russian forces are withdrawing from the northern Chernihiv region but have not yet left entirely, the local governor said in a video address today, adding that Ukrainian forces were entering and securing settlements previously held by Russian troops. Russian troops "are still on our land,' Governor Chaus said. Russia said in March 30 it would scale down operations in the Chernihiv and Kiev regions. (Source: Reuters)
Apr 1, 2022 at 9:19 am ET Zelensky fires two generals for being ‘traitors’. 'I do not have time to deal with all the traitors. But gradually they will all be punished,' Mr. Zelensky said in an overnight address. A southern-region security chief lost his general’s rank. Kryvoruchko had led Ukraine’s security service office in the Kherson region, where Russia seized the capital earlier in the war with little military opposition. Mr. Zelensky also stripped the rank from Brig. Gen. Naumov, the former head of internal security at the Security Service of Ukraine, who is believed to have fled the country shortly before the war began. Mr. Zelensky, in the address, cheered battlefield successes as Ukraine’s military retakes ground from retreating Russian forces. But he also urged caution. 'We know that they are moving away from the areas where we are beating them to focus on others that are very important. On those where it can be difficult for us,” he said. (Source: TheWallStreetJournal)
April 1, 2022 Irpin is a town in the pine forests on Kyiv's northwestern edge. It was becoming the closest Moscow's forces got to the centre of the capital some 20 kilometres away. Shelling has blasted huge chunks out of modern, pastel-coloured apartment blocks. It is now back under Ukrainian control, as Russian troops pull back from outside Kyiv. The deserted town centre is free of shelling for the first time in a month. Rescue workers are still retrieving the dead from Irpin and placing them in body bags, before taking them to the blown-up bridge that links the town with Kyiv. In Irpin - authorities say - at least 200 were killed. The last survivors in the ruins of Irpin have just one word to describe the Russians who have retreated after the battle of the war: 'Fascists!' (Source: msn / AFP)
China
01:35, 01-Apr-2022 EU and Chinese leaders are preparing for a key summit today aimed at easing tensions and finding common ground over the conflict in Ukraine. The EU is pushing China to put pressure on Russia's President Putin to end what it describes as a 'senseless war'. Brussels is also looking to get assurances from Beijing that it will not undermine western sanctions against Russia. There's little expectation of a breakthrough. The Chinese and Russian foreign ministers met this week to enhance their relationship, and reiterate their "unlimited cooperation". Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang said: 'There is no limit to China-Russia cooperation, no limit to our efforts to achieve peace, safeguard security and oppose hegemony. China-Russia relations are non-aligned, non-confrontational and not targeted at any third party.' Beijing has previously criticised Western sanctions in principle. It also comes after a difficult year in Sino-European relations. The EU has sanctioned Chinese officials accused of mass detentions of muslim Uygurs, a claim Beijing denies. In return, China then sanctioned European politicians - accusing them of harming Chinese sovereignty. The European Parliament then refused to ratify a major trade deal between the two economic blocs. The EU describes China both as a partner, and a "systemic rival." This week, the EU's top diplomat Borrell, said: 'It's not in our interest to lean Russia towards China, in order to create a great alliance.' There is expected to be no joint statement after the summit, and no 'deliverables,' but both sides agree there is much to resolve. (Source: CGTN)
United States
April 1, 2022 Are Russian forces in Ukraine being led from Moscow? U.S. military experts observing the war in Ukraine believe that the invading Russian forces lack a central war commander in the country, leading them to rely on government officials in Moscow for orders. If true, this centralized approach to decision-making - a hallmark of Russian strategy in Ukraine that has significantly hindered the invading force - could help explain why the Russian military has failed to make any significant strategic gains in the country after a month of fighting. No clear Russian commander had emerged in Ukraine, leading the United States and NATO to believe that day-to-day decision-making in the war was being made by high-level officials in Moscow, including Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov. Earlier in the week, Biden administration officials announced that they believed Putin was receiving incomplete or misleading information from his generals on the conduct of the war, adding that the Russian leader has felt increasingly frustrated by members of his inner circle, including Shoigu, who he believes have failed to tell him the truth about the situation in Ukraine. The Kremlin denied the White House report yesterday, describing it as a “complete misunderstanding” of Putin’s relationship with his subordinates. However, the experts warned that these officials could not fully understand the realities on the ground in Ukraine from Moscow, which is 500 miles east of the fighting. U.S. experts have also highlighted the role of Russia’s logistical difficulties and its seeming inability to conduct combined arms operations between sea, air, and land units in its battlefield setbacks. These failures have been costly for the Russian military, which has lost 40,000 killed, injured, or captured troops, according to a NATO estimate. Moreover, the Russian military has lost at least seven Russian generals. Observers in the United States and elsewhere have speculated that a lack of initiative or clear instructions among Russian mid-level officers leads generals to forward positions in attempts to solve problems, exposing them to enemy fire. Although Russia has in recent days suggested that it would scale back the invasion and withdraw troops from northern and southern Ukraine to focus on the country’s east, it has also sought to reinforce the initial invasion forces with mercenaries from outside Russia, including as many as 40,000 Syrian nationals. Moscow has also reportedly hired mercenaries from the Wagner Group, a private Russian military company closely linked to the Kremlin, to supplement its conscript-based army. (Source: TheNationalInterest)
April 1, 2022 In March 30, Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, said the United States believed that about 1,000 mercenaries from the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor, are focused on the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, where Russia has installed two separatist enclaves. Mr. Kirby added that Wagner was believed to recruit from Arab countries, including Syria and Libya. Syria’s long-running war drew in foreign powers such as Iran, Turkey, Russia and the United States, all of which worked with Syrian military groups on the ground to advance their interests. Russia and Turkey together dispatched about 10,000 Syrian fighters to bolster their preferred sides in the conflict in Libya, and Turkey sent about 2,000 Syrians to Azerbaijan during last year’s war in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Using mercenaries is not considered a war crime under the Geneva Conventions, but there is a separate United Nations treaty that criminalizes it. Ukraine is a signatory to that treaty, but Russia is not. “They are taking advantage of the poor socioeconomic situation that these people find themselves in,' said MacLeod, the chair of the United Nations Working Group on the use of mercenaries. The war in Ukraine has caused interest to spike, and recruiters have launched registration drives across Syria. A recruiter in southern Syria said the Russians want as many as 16,000 Syrians to fight in Ukraine. Applicants must be between 20 and 45 years old and weigh between 110 and 200 pounds. Those with military experience get priority. All recruits must be vetted by the Syrian security services. The promise of earning is $1,000-$2,000 a month. The roughly 300 soldiers already in Russia are from the 25th Division of the Syrian Army, known as the Tiger Forces, which are seen as elite and work closely with Russian officers. The Russians have offered them $1,200 a month for six months with a $3,000 bonus when they return to Syria. Their families are promised $2,800, plus $600 a month for one year, if their loved ones are killed in combat. In Syria, those soldiers earn about $100 a month, while soldiers from less elite units earn less than $50 per month. A commander of a militia made up of fighters from Syria and neighboring countries that received Russian support during the Syrian war said his group had sent another contingent of 85 men to Russia. They included Lebanese, Iraqis and Syrians, he said, adding that more were on the way. “The Russians helped us when needed it, and now it’s time to give back part of what they offered us,” the commander said. (Source: msn / TheWashingtonPost)
April 1, 2022 In his address to NATO on March 24, president Zelensky begged Europe for 'One percent of all your planes. One percent of all your tanks.' He made the plea again a few days later in a public statement and will likely continue to do so. Zelensky’s 1% solution for tanks and aircraft: a bold but unworkable idea. The long times - months or years - required to set up training programs, maintenance facilities, and supply pipelines for this equipment make such an approach unworkable as a mechanism for affecting the outcome of the current conflict. For example, an M-1 tank, the type now in the U.S. inventory, has four initial entry jobs (called military occupational specialties) with training times ranging from 13 weeks to 34 weeks. The U.S. military divides maintenance into three levels: organizational, intermediate, and depot. Intermediate-level maintenance would be done by specialized facilities on a base. Depots are specialized industrial facilities to completely rebuild equipment periodically over its lifetime to prevent the widespread wearing out of parts and to provide the latest upgrades. For US M-1 tanks, this facility is at the Aniston Army Depot in Alabama. That sprawling industrial facility disassembles M-1 tanks and rebuilds them with new parts. And supply pipeline is required. An M-1 tank has thousands of individual components. Each of the dozen or so organizational and intermediate-level maintenance organizations would need to stock a few hundred parts while the single depot would need to stock them all. Examples of systems that are either easy to use or that the Ukrainians already operate are anti-tank like Javelin or NLOS and shoulder-fired anti-aircraft weapons like Stinger. It takes only a few days to train troops on the basics of using them (although it takes several weeks to fully train personnel on all the intricacies of the systems and the tactics for employment). A variety of other systems fall into this category, like night vision goggles and some communications equipment. The Ukrainians already operate typically older Soviet systems - for example MiG-29s - that some of the eastern NATO allies still have in their inventories and would like to swap out for more modern NATO systems. NATO is also apparently looking for S-300s, a medium-range anti-aircraft system that Ukrainians use. In theory, NATO could provide systems like T-72 tanks, which are available on the world market, and potentially other equipment as well. NATO and the United States are also, apparently, thinking about providing anti-ship missiles to help Ukraine deal with the Russian Black Sea fleet, which is threatening its southern coast. The missiles come in self-contained canisters, but the launch platform, likely a truck of some sort, and the sensors for spotting a target need specialized training and maintenance. The realities of modern military equipment have thus driven NATO and the United States to their current policies. They might provide a few additional capabilities, but the options are limited. (Source: CenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies)
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