The magnetic field in and around earth. The intensity of the magnetic field at the earth's surface is approximately 31 000 nT (0.31 gauss) at the equator and 62 000 nT (0.62 gauss) at the north pole. Its short-term disturbances are the geomagnetic activities.
Geomagnetic storm: A worldwide disturbance of the earth's magnetic field, distinct from regular diurnal variations. A storm occurs when the Ap > 29, a minor storm when 29 < Ap < 50, a major storm when 50 <= Ap < 100 and a severe storm when Ap >= 100.
10 MeV = 10 million eV. The eV (electron volt) is a very tiny amount of energy corresponding to about 0.16 billionth of a billionth of a Joule. For comparison, a flying mosquito has a kinetic energy of
about a trillion eV (= 1000 billion eV).
ap index: A mean, 3-hourly "equivalent amplitude" of magnetic activity based on K index data from a planetary of 11 Northern and 2 Southern Hemisphere magnetic observatories between the geomagnetic latitudes of 46 and 63 degrees. ap values are given in units of 2 nT.
Bt: total magnetic field strength
Bz: the north-south direction of the interplanetary magnetic field
CH HSS: coronal hole high speed stream
CIR: co-rotating interaction region
geomagnetic storms: classification according to NOAA scale: http://tinyurl.com/lcepo4z
Kp index: A 3-hourly planetary index of geomagnetic activity calculated by the Institut fur Geophysik der Gottingen Universitat, Germany, from the K indices observed at 13 stations primarily in the Northern Hemisphere.
NOAA Space Weather Scales (for three event types: geomagnetic storms, radio blackouts and solar radiation storms: http://tinyurl.com/lcepo4z
pfu: proton flux unit. This is the number of particles registered per second, per square cm, and per steradian.
proton events classification according to NOAA scale R1-R5 of radio blackouts: http://tinyurl.com/lcepo4z
Reconnection: A plasma process by which differently directed field lines link up, allowing topological changes of the magnetic field to occur, determining patterns of plasma flow, and resulting in conversion of magnetic energy to kinetic and thermal energy of plasma. Reconnection is invoked to explain the energization and acceleration of the plasmas that are observed in coronal mass ejections, magnetic substorms, and elsewhere in the solar system.
solar radiation storms: classification according to NOAA scale: http://tinyurl.com/lcepo4z
Solar wind: The outward flow of solar particles and magnetic fields from sun. Typically at 1 AU, solar wind velocities are near 450 km/s and proton and electron densities are near 5 cm^-3. The total intensity of the interplanetary magnetic field is nominally 5 nT. The fast solar wind originates from coronal holes and the slow wind is assumed to originate from regions near the coronal neutral line.
Sector boundary: Area between sectors, which are large-scale features distinguished by the predominant direction of the interplanetary magnetic field, toward the sun (a negative sector), or away from the sun (a positive sector). The sector boundary separating fields of opposite polarity is normally narrow, passing the earth within minutes to hours as opposed to the week or so needed for passage of a typical sector.
Solar activity: Five terms are often used to describe the activity (see x-ray solar flare class).
Very low ---- x-ray events less than C-solar flare class.
Low ---- C-class x-ray events.
Moderate ---- isolated (one to 4) M-solar flare class x-ray events.
High ---- several (5 or more) M-class x-ray events, or isolated (one to 4) M5 or greater x-ray events.
Very high ---- several (5 or more) M5 or greater x-ray events.
X-ray solar flare class: Rank of a flare based on its x-ray energy output.
Class ----- Peak burst intensity (I) measured at the Earth in the 0.1-0.8 nm band (W m^-2)
B ----- I< 10^-6
C ----- 10^-6 <= I < 10^-5
M ----- 10^-5 <= I < 10^-4
X ----- I > = 10^-4
Time data, photos regarding the occurence of M-class or stronger solar flares, Kp5-level or greater geomagnetic storm activity, big or slow solar wind speed, etc.
Possibly about some quakes, volcano activity
06:00 - 12:00 UT: G1-level (Minor) geomagnetic storm (Kp = 5) due to elevated wind speeds from the CH HSS influence.
by 10:42 UT: from between 450 - 500 km/s the solar winds speed steadily rose to a peak of 733 km/s.
12:00 - 15:00 UT: G2-level (Moderate) geomagnetic storm (Kp = 6) due to elevated wind speeds from the CH HSS influence.
16:38 UT: solar wind with speeds over 700 km/s
16:38 UT: A sudden, fast subsided geomagnetic storm in progress (Kp reaching 6) as a result of a fast speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole is experienced.
17:10 UT: the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 19,551 pfu.
Solar wind speeds were elevated today ranging from around 550 - 750 km/s, reflecting the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Total magnetic field was in gradual decline from around 9 nT to near 5 nT. Phi was predominantly positive (away).
17:48 UT: an M5.7 quake occured at a distance of 35 km north-east of Calama, Chile; 637 km south of La Paz, Bolivia. See also: South America, Nazca Plate Region.
Fuego volcano, Guatemala seen from about 50 km southwest of Guatemala City, erupts. (Source: Yahoo): http://tinyurl.com/h6p35xd
Sunspot region number 2443 continued to rotate to and beyond the west limb.
from 03:00 UT to 12:30 UT: period of negative (towards) phi, which was positive (away) for most of the day.
for the first half of the day, the solar winds were consistent, between around 450 - 500 km/s
08:12 UT: M5.5 quake occured at a distance of 76 km north-west from Sabang, Indonesia; 840 km west-northwest of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. See also: the Sumatra Region.
13:12 UT: an M3.9-class solar flare occured. Its source: sunspot region number 2449.
beginning at 13:36 UT an associated coronal mass ejection (CME) of the M3,9-class solar flare was observed from the south-eastern limb. A Type II radio sweep, with an estimated shock velocity 957 km/s, and a type IV radio sweep were observed. An Earth-directed component is likely.with the event.
14:00 UT: an Earth directed component of a partial CME was recorded.
(Prediction: for 11 November Any Earth directed component of the partial CME can be expected to reach Earth on November 11 around 20:00 UT).
15:00 UT: the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 17,885 pfu
after 16:00 UT: the Bz component, which was predominantly southward through the period became with more frequent oscillation into a northward component
16:03 UT: M6.2 quake occured at a distance of 93 km east-south-east from Atka, Alaska, USA; 1548 km south-southeast of Anadyr', Russia; 2516 km west of Whitehorse, Canada.
at 19:26 UT: total magnetic field strength (Bt) began the period around 5 nT and gradually increased to a peak of 12 nT
by 23:14 UT: solar wind speeds were elevated, began slowly rising to a peak of 671 km/s;
The solar wind speed increased from ~500 to ~600 km/s under the influence of a northern hemisphere coronal hole. Total IMF strength increased from 5 nT, peaked at 13 nT.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit maintained at minor storm level.
21:00- 24:00 UT: the geomagnetic field was at minor storm level (KP = 5), due to the effects of coronal hole high speed stream,
between 00:25 - 02:40 UT: filament eruption.
Small-scale activity appears to be occurring around sunspot regions 2449 and 2450 which have a complex magnetic topology.
Sunspot region 2443 has moved over the Western hemisphere limb.
11:55 UT: greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit maintained at minor storm level; reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,280 pfu.
until around 17:00 UT: the phi angle was steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation; after it became variable.
The solar wind was between 450 and 500 km/s. It has gradually increased; this is associated with the waning effects of the 04 Nov CME triggered by the M3.7 flare and the approaching very wide, recurrent positive northern hemisphere coronal hole. IMF Bz has been mainly oriented southwards for at least 10 hrs of the day. The total magnetic field has slightly decreased from around 10 nT to around 5 nT, and the Bz component has been largely negative. The Bz was mainly around -5 nT.
From midnight to 09:00 UT solar wind speeds remained around 700 km/s, after began to decrease.
From 03:00 UT till noon Bz was mostly negative.
From 00:00 till 15:00 UT the planetary K index ranged G1-class (minor) geomagnetic storming (Kp = 5).
On the evening aurora sightings are likely from Southern Australian regions, possibly extending at times to Central regions (forcast from November 3).
03:26 UT: an impulsive M1.9-class flare was peaking, associated with a non Earth-directed coronal mass ejection and a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock speed 790 km/s and a 220 sfu Tn flare). This flare's source: sunspot region number 2245.
03:44 UT: M6.3 quake occured at a distance of 77 km west-north-west from Dili, East Timor; 83 km north of Atambua, Indonesia. See also: Java Region.
04:05 UT: solar wind with a maximum speed near 770 km/s was observed. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength was ending -
at noon - near 10 nT.
12:03 UT: M2.5-class solar flare occured. Its source: sunspot region number 2245. Nor this event had an Earth-directed component.
13:52 UT: M3.7-class solar flare. Its source: sunspot region number 2243.
A relatively quiet so far group of sunspots is rounding the northeast limb.
Elevated solar wind speeds are expected from the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
is under influence of the positive polarity high speed stream (HSS) of the equatorial coronal hole. Chance on a major (K = 6) storming episode in response to the continued effects from the HSS of the equatorial coronal hole.
From around midnight till 07:30 UT a gradual increase was observed from 300 to 400 km/s in solar wind speed, coinciding with particle densities up to 100/cm3 and increasing temperatures. The 4th Proton event so far this year. The source of this event was an eruption on the solar backside, slightly beyond the southwest solar limb as seen from Earth, on 29 October probably between 02:30 - 03:00 UT.
at 02:36 UT the complex coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event was first visible in LASCO/C2 coronagraphic imagery. It had no earth-directed component.
During the early hours, auroras were sighted in the USA in Michigan, Wisconsin, Montana, and even Ohio.
On the evening aurora sightings are likely from Southern Australian regions, possibly extending at times to Central regions.
05:30 UT: the total magnetic field strength (Bt) jumped from 4 nT to 22 nT, the north-south direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) dropped from -5 nT to -24 nT, solar wind speeds began to increase to near 700 km/s and have remained steady near 665 km/s. These enhancements appear to be a reflection of the anticipated co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of the expected coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Bt reached a peak of 37 nT while Bz saw a maximum southward deflection to -24 nT.
06:00-12:00 UT interval: minor geomagnetic storming has been observed (Kp = 5)
Around 07:30 UT solar wind speed jumped to 550 km/s.
Until about 08:00 UT Bz oscillated wildly between -25 and + 27 nT. This probably corresponds to the passing of the co-rotating interaction region.
Around 11:00 UT solar wind speed jumped again from 550 to 700 km/s, indicating the arrival of the high speed stream (HSS) from the equatorial coronal hole (CH). Solar wind density quickly decreased and Bz stayed mostly positive between 0 and +20 nT (declining). Minor to severe geomagnetic storming (K ranging from 5 to 7) is expected in response to the HSS of the CH.
around 15:00 UT a high-speed stream of solar wind has reached Earth and is buffeting our planet's magnetic field. So far, however, there have been no strong geomagnetic storms. Magnetic fields inside the solar wind stream are not well-connected to Earth's magnetic field, and that mismatch is mitigating the impact.
18:00-21:00 UT: minor geomagnetic storming (Kp = 5)
From 17:00 UT till midnight Bz was mostly negative.
From 18:30 UT to midnight solar wind speeds were increasing to over 700 km/s.
Today the Bz component of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) ranged between -25 to +27 nT and Bt was between 3-40 nT. If the IMF Bz turns strongly southward for prolonged periods, minor to severe geomagnetic storms could occur.
Sunspot region number 2244 is huge; from end to end it measures almost 200,000 km.
21:25 UT: M5.7 quake occured at a distance of 69 km west-north-west from Dili, East Timor; 81 km north of Atambua, Indonesia. See also: Java Region.
Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, USA (summit elevation: 1247 m): lava lake still present at Kīlauea's summit; the lava lake level is roughly 70 m below the Overlook crater rim. Continued eruption at Puʻu ʻŌʻō.
03:04 UT: an M 5.6 quake occured at a distance of 358 km south-east of Lambasa, Fiji, 396 km east of Suva, Fiji. See also: Fiji region.
08:15 UT: an M5.9 quake occured at 80km south-east of Atka, Alaska, the USA; 1549 km south-southeast of Anadyr', Russia; 2541 km west of Whitehorse, Canada.
at midday: a monster spot on the sun, sunspot region number 2443 has more than quadrupled in size since it first appeared on Oct. 29th. It now stretches more than 175,000 km from end to end, and has more than a dozen dark cores, many of which are as large as terrestrial continents - and a couple as large as Earth itself. The sunspot's magnetic field has simplified a little, but the spotty complex still has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. Any such explosions will be geoeffective as the sunspot turns squarely toward Earth in the days ahead.
Solar wind speeds could exceed 800 km/s and spark a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm.
90% chance of geomagnetic storms on Nov. 2nd-3rd when a fast-moving stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field.
21:17 UT. An impressive CME was observed originated from behind the west limb. It does not appear to have an Earth-directed component. A recurrent, large equatorial coronal hole is taking a geoeffective position on the solar disk. Its size is slightly smaller compared to the previous rotation.
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
At about 22:14 UT total magnetic field strength (Bt) reflected a pronounced jump from around 3 nT to 10 nT.
After 22:14 UT (within minutes) solar wind speed's increase in from around 320 km/s to about 410 km/s, as well as an increase in density.
Today the solar winds fluctuated between 300 and 360 km/s. They are expected to elevate at some time due to the anticipated arrival of high speed streams emanating from the recurrent coronal hole.
Sunspot region number 2443 positioned directly earth facing.
Forecast for November 3-4, 2015:
On the evening aurora sightings are likely from Southern Australian regions, possibly extending at times to Central regions.
15:16 UT: an M5.9 quake occured at 38 km south of San Pedro de Atacama, Chile; 748 km south of La Paz, Bolivia. See also: South America, Nazca Plate Region.
around 18:30 UT a sector boundary crossing was observed with the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field turning from towards to away from the Sun.
21:09 UT: an M5.5 quake occured at 46 km east of Taitung City, Taiwan, 130 km south of Hualian, Taiwan and 766 km east of Hong Kong, Hong Kong. See also: the Philippine Sea and vicinity.
SUN:: solar activity was low to moderate with sunspot region number 2443 which maintains its complex beta-gamma-delta configuration producing several high level C class flares. No Earth directed CME's were recorded. Growing sunspot AR2443 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.
Solar wind:speed was in the 330-380 km/s range. The magnetic field phi angle was stable in the negative sector. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled. Solar wind conditions are expected to increase afterwards with the expected arrival of a recurrent equatorial coronal hole high speed stream. In the previous rotation this coronal hole caused solar wind speeds of over 800 km/s and associated major geomagnetic storms.