Egyik 19

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Europe

France
(16 February 2025)  A group of European leaders - including the UK's Keir Starmer, Nato secretary-general Rutte, Germany's chancellor Olaf Scholz and the European Commission's der Leyen - will meet in Paris. French President Macron will hold an informal meeting in the afternoon on Ukraine and European security. Ahead of the summit, writing in the UK's Daily Telegraph newspaper, Sir Keir said the UK was prepared to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by ’putting our own troops on the ground if necessary’. (Source: BBC News – United Kingdom)

European Union
February 16, 2025  Trump's special enwoy for Ukraine and Russia, Kellogg says EU might not have place in Russia peace talks. "What we don't want to do is get into a large group discussion," he said in Munich. French President Macron convened some European leaders to an emergency meeting in Paris. (Source: Fox News - U.S.)

Ukraine
16/02/2025  Rejected deal with US over rare minerals - document 'too focused on US interests'. (Source: Euronews - Headquarters Lyon, France)

Sunday, 16 February 2025  The Trump administration has indicated it is interested in accessing critical minerals to reduce dependence on China. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

United Kingdom
(16 February 2025)  Responsibility comes with potentially putting British servicemen and women in harm's way. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

North America

United States
(16 February 2025)  The White House's Middle East envoy Witkoff confirmed he was travelling to Saudi Arabia today evening for the first face-to-face talks between the US and Russia towards ending the conflict. Witkoff, a billionaire real estate developer and friend of Trump, was in Moscow this week. US President Trump revealed today that Witkoff had met with Putin already, earlier in the week, "for a very extended period, like about three hours". Witkoff said US officials were speaking separately with Ukrainian officials and that Ukraine was "part of the talks". He indicated that previous negotiations had failed due to the involvement of too many parties. Trump told reporters in Palm Beach, Florida, today that he expected Zelensky to be involved in the talks, though he did not say how. He also said he would allow European nations ’to buy US weapons for Ukraine’. When he believed any peace negotiations could bear fruit and end the fighting? Trump said only that "we're working to get it done" and laid the blame for the war on the previous administration's Ukraine policies. The US special envoy to Ukraine Kellogg had said Kyiv would be involved in this week's talks in Saudi Arabia, but no delegation would be present. Rubio downplayed the Saudi Arabia talks, saying one meeting would not solve the war and that a formal negotiating process - that would mediate between Ukraine, Russia and third parties - had not yet been set up. (Source: BBC News – United Kingdom)

16.02.2025  Zelenskyy's rejection of US access to half of Ukraine's mineral resources "short-sighted," White House National Security Council spokesman Hughes said. The deal would allow American taxpayers to recover funds sent to Kyiv while also benefiting Ukraine’s economy. President Trump did not rule out that he would want to "return" all the money spent by the American government in this country, specifically, an equivalent in the form of Ukrainian rare earth metals worth $500 billion. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Feb 16, 2025  US federal agencies started mass layoffs - this week, over 9,500 employees have been laid off. (Source: NewsBytes - India)

Sunday 16 February 2025  The agency overseeing the US nuclear stockpile let some staff go - 325 essential nuclear security workers - but now they want them back. (Source: Sky News – United Kingdom)

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Europe

Croatia
February 15, 2025, Saturday  A boycott of major retail chains in Croatia has led to an estimated loss of 80 million euros, according to protesters. The movement began after a call from the Croatian consumer initiative "Halo Inspector" on January 24, urging people to stop shopping at large supermarkets to protest against rising food prices. The appeal quickly gained traction through social media, with many Croatian citizens joining the protest. The prices of everyday items in Croatia have soared, with food inflation reaching 5.4% in January alone, a significant increase from 4.5% in December. This has led to widespread frustration, as inflation rates have been on the rise for months. Croatians have pointed out that prices are significantly cheaper abroad, with a recent study confirming that food spending in Croatia is disproportionately high when compared to the rest of Europe.    In Bulgaria, a political party in power has proposed a bill to limit the prices of basic food items, citing concerns over foreign companies profiting off citizens while sending revenue abroad.    Romania has also seen calls for a boycott, with the populist presidential candidate Georgescu urging citizens to reject foreign suppliers. This movement has led to some results, such as Carrefour reducing prices on 1,500 products by up to 25%.    Serbia,    Bosnia and Herzegovina,    North Macedonia, and     Montenegro have also heard calls for boycotts, with Prime Minister Spajic of Montenegro expressing personal support for the protests. (Source: Novinite – Bulgaria)

France
15.02.2025  Europe must be ready to face challenges, ’make sacrifices for its own security’, French foreign minister Barrot said reporters on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.today. The minister recalled that Europe had lived for decades in a certain form of recklessness regarding its own security that was in a way, implicitly outsourced to its American partners, its dependence on technological matters, as well as the energy prices and climate change. It is time to act now that Europe is in the quest for ways to recover its strategic autonomy. He recalled that President of the EU Commission der Leyen presented 'the roadmap for competitiveness' two weeks ago. Barrot further said the new US administration, ’which entered office three, maybe three-and-a-half weeks ago, is still forming its opinion on the crisis in Ukraine'. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

Germany
(Saturday), 15.02.2025 The three-day annual Munich Security Conference kicked off Friday in Munich, hosting more than 50 heads of state and government and 150 government ministers from around the world. High-level discussions about the war in Ukraine and statements on possible peace negotiations as well as the US vice president's remarks about Europe dominated day one. Today, the conference continued with an address by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz set to be followed by President Zelenskyy. European Council President Costa, Czech President Pavel, Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen, and Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson will take part in a discussion on European support for Ukraine. NATO Secretary-General Rutte will also speak on a panel about NATO, the US, and transatlantic security. Another panel discussion will bring together the foreign ministers of Germany, Poland, France, and the UK. Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan will speak at a panel on Prospects for Syria's transition along with his Syrian counterpart Al-Shaibani and Saudi counterpart Saud. The heads of international organizations such as the World Food Program and the International Organization for Migration will also speak at the annual gathering. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

Feb 15, 2025 During an interview with German Radio (Deutschlandfunk), Heusgen, the head of the Munich Security Conference, claimed he believes that “today the American Vice President will announce that a large part of the American troops will be withdrawn from Europe.” Heusgen’s comments follow recent media reports that US President Trump plans to cut his country’s troop presence in Europe by about 20%, or 20,000 troops, as part of a review of Washington's commitment to protecting Europe. (Source: MEHR News Agency - Iran)

European Commission
February 15 2025  Europe and the military-industrial complex. It is always the case that money can be found for defence spending, war and any other act of destruction for humankind. As the FT noted yesterday: The EU plans to temporarily ease its fiscal rules to allow countries to spend more on defence, as the bloc has come under pressure from the US to invest more in its own security. ’I can announce that I will propose to activate the escape clause for defence investments,’ European Commission president der Leyen said at the Munich Security Conference yesterday. ’This will allow member states to substantially increase their defence expenditure’, she added. Could the EU permit increased spending to relieve poverty? No. Apparently, that was impossible. But can we relax spending rules for defence? Apparently, that's no problem. Money creation is always a political choice, and as a matter of fact, modern monetary theory precisely describes the process involved. As US President Eisenhower said in 1961 when leaving the White House: "In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist". Wise words. We need to tread with care right now. (Source: Tax Research LLP. – Ely, United Kingdom)
by Murphy, a part-time Professor of Accounting Practice at Sheffield University Management School.

Russia
15 February 2025  Russia’s spy services have a shadowy new unit taking aim at the West with covert attacks across Europe and elsewhere, Western intelligence officials say. The Department of Special Tasks - its Russian acronym: SSD - is based in the headquarters of Russian military intelligence, a complex on the outskirts of Moscow known as the aquarium. Its operations, which haven’t been previously reported, ’have included attempted killings, sabotage and a plot to put incendiary devices on planes’. The new department is ’believed’ to be behind a host of recent attacks against the West, including the attempted killing of the chief executive of a German arms maker and a plot to put incendiary devices on planes used by shipping giant Deutsche Post AG (DHL). These are, as usual, completely unsubstantiated accusations, said Kremlin spokesman Peskov. The SSD has taken over some powers from the FSB, the country’s largest intelligence service, and absorbed Unit 29155, which Western intelligence and law-enforcement officials say was behind the 2018 poisoning of a Russian double agent, Skripal, in the U.K. The SSD has at least three broad tasks: carrying out killings and sabotage overseas, infiltrating Western companies and universities, and recruiting and training foreign agents. The department has been seeking to recruit agents from Ukraine, developing nations and countries seen as friendly to Russia, such as Serbia. The department also runs an elite special operations center, known as Senezh, where Russia trains some of its special forces. Col. Gen. Averyanov and his deputy, Lt. Gen. Kasianenko oversee the operations of the SSD. Averyanov, a veteran of Russia’s Chechen wars, is wanted by Czech police for his suspected role in an operation to blow up an ammunition depot in 2014. President Putin awarded him Russia’s highest honor, the Hero of Russia medal, following his involvement in the occupation and annexation of Crimea. Western intelligence officials said they ’believe’ his deputy, Kasianenko, coordinated the operation to poison Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, in the U.K. Russia denied involvement in the poisoning. Kasianenko’s role includes overseeing covert operations in Europe and the takeover of the Wagner paramilitary operations in Africa after the killing of its founder, Prigozhin, in 2023. He was born in 1975 in Kazakhstan. Known internally by his initials KIS, Kasianenko joined Russia’s military intelligence, (GRU), after serving in Russia’s air force. A Persian speaker who once operated in Tehran under the guise of a diplomatic posting, Kasianenko was recently involved in facilitating a transfer of skills and technology from Russia to Iran, according to European intelligence officials. He was earlier identified by Grozev, an investigative journalist, in a report for the online news outlet the Insider. He said he originally identified GRU operatives from a scene in a recent documentary about the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan, “Hollywoodgate.” Grozev was then able to obtain phone records of one of the operatives, which showed that he had been interacting with Kasianenko. In May last year, operatives from the SSD set fire to a factory in Berlin owned by Diehl, a company that supplies weapons systems to Ukraine. Around the same time, U.S. intelligence told Germany that it had uncovered a plan to assassinate leaders of Europe’s armaments industry, including Papperger, the chief executive of Rheinmetall, the biggest supplier of artillery ammunition to Ukraine and which is also building a tank factory in the war-torn country. There have been attacks elsewhere in Europe as well. In June, French authorities arrested a dual Ukrainian-Russian national after a makeshift bomb exploded in his hotel room. French authorities indicted him on terrorism-related charges, saying he had planned to bomb a home improvement store. Hostile activities by the SSD peaked last summer, but have subsided recently, according to U.S. and European officials. ’The lull in activity could be aimed at creating diplomatic space for Moscow to negotiate with the new U.S. administration, according to the two European intelligence chiefs’. In May, Ukraine’s security service said 'it had foiled a plot by Russia to set several supermarkets and a cafe on fire'. Ukraine said the plan had been coordinated by Maj. Sizov. Western intelligence officials said Sizov, who is an officer in Senezh, 'coordinated another operation days later to set a mall in the Polish capital of Warsaw ablaze. He has since been sanctioned by the EU for his role in the plots. In July, 'similar incendiary devices that were sent via DHL, ignited in transit hubs in Leipzig, Germany, and Birmingham, England. A connecting flight was late, and the device went off while at the airport'. Security officials said the incendiary devices ’appeared to be part of a test run for putting similar devices on planes bound for North America’. Warnings were quietly sent in August to major shipping companies, airlines and airports. The details of the plot, were first reported by the WSJ. The then national security adviser Sullivan and Central Intelligence Agency chief Burns called Russian leaders in August and asked them to stop the attack. Sullivan called Ushakov, an aide to Putin and a former ambassador to the U.S. Burns called his counterpart, Naryshkin, as well as Russia’s most senior security official, Shoigu. The calls were first reported by the New York Times. Both Shoigu and Ushakov, who are among a handful of officials with regular access to Putin, denied any knowledge of the DHL plot. ’The SSD operates under broad orders from Putin, but the commanders might not seek approval for specific operations’, Western and Russian officials said. The department has been particularly focused on Germany because Russia sees the country as a weak link in NATO, due to its dependence on Russian energy, growing anxiety about nuclear escalation and sympathy for Russia among some politicians and voters. In December, the European Union sanctioned a unit of the department, without identifying the SSD by name, for orchestrating ’coups, assassinations, bombings, and cyberattacks’ in Europe and elsewhere. The U.S. indicted members of the SSD on similar charges in December. The State Department is offering a reward of up to $10 million for any information about five members accused of cyberattacks on Ukraine. Some lawmakers and security officials have called for the West to step up covert efforts in response to Russia’s operations. The U.S. should enhance and leverage its own clandestine activities, including in and around Russia, to deter further aggression from the Kremlin, said Thompson, a former CIA paramilitary officer. That was echoed by Sen. Cotton (R., Ark.), the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, who said in a recent hearing that the CIA needs to become bolder and more innovative in covert action. ’Appathurai, the NATO official, warned that the U.S. and its allies needed to adopt a wartime mindset across society in response’. (Source: The Wall Street Journal - U.S.)
by Pancevski

Ukraine
(15 February 2025)  Ukraine end game. Ukraine's future is the focus of the Munich Security Conference (MSC), just days after a phone call between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in which they agreed to begin negotiations to end the Ukraine war. Describing the call earlier this week as "great", Trump said there was a "good possibility of ending that horrible, very bloody war". Moscow currently controls around a fifth of Ukraine's territory, mainly in the south and east. Until recently, Ukraine's western allies stood by Zelensky's position that all of Ukraine, including Crimea, should be returned. But the new US Defence Secretary Hegseth poured cold water on those hopes, saying at a summit in February that achieving pre-2014 borders was an "unrealistic objective". "Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering," he said. For Kyiv, Russia's full-scale invasion is proof that only Nato membership can guarantee its security. Russia has consistently opposed the idea of Ukraine becoming a member, fearing it would bring Nato forces too close to its borders. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was telling Zelensky that the country is on 'an irreversible path' to membership. The US defence secretary downplayed the likelihood of Nato membership for Ukraine in any peace settlement. "The United States does not believe that Nato membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement," Hegseth said. Zelensky has said previous discussions with US President Trump are ’definitely not enough to form a plan’ for peace. Hegseth claimed Trump was the "one man in the world" capable of bringing both sides together and insisted US attempts to negotiate peace were certainly not a betrayal of the Ukrainian soldiers fighting invading Russian forces. Hesgeth has warned there would be no US troops on the ground Ukraine in any future security arrangement. The US vice-president said sending troops to Ukraine is 'still on the table' should Russia fail to negotiate a peace deal in good faith. "The president is not going into this with blinders on," Vance told the WSJ. UK defence sources quoted in the Times newspaper claim that the US could provide some form of air defence - possibly Patriot missiles - to a peacekeeping force in Ukraine in return for access to minerals. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

(Saturday), 15.02.2025  The Trump administration proposed that the US receive a 50% ownership stake in Ukraine’s rare earth minerals as compensation for the military and financial aid provided to Kyiv to fight off the Russian war. Under the proposal, Ukraine would transfer partial control of its valuable mineral resources to Washington rather than make financial repayments. The plan also includes the possibility of deploying American troops to safeguard these assets, contingent on a diplomatic resolution with Russia. Treasury Secretary Bessent reportedly handed Zelenskyy a draft contract outlining the proposed agreement during a meeting in Kyiv on Wednesday. Zelenskyy did not sign the agreement during the meeting, instead saying that he needed additional time to study it and consult with others. Ukraine is sitting on massive reserves of critical rare earth minerals. In addition to having one of the largest confirmed reserves of lithium, Ukraine boasts semiconductor-grade neon gas that is critical for chip production, beryllium, uranium, zirconium, apatite, iron ore and manganese. It holds about 5% of the world’s total of mineral resources, according to a 2024 World Economic Forum report. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Asia

Gaza
February 15, 2025  Hamas frees 3 more hostages. About 70 hostages remain in Hamas custody, about half are believed to be dead. (Source: Fox News - U.S.)

North America

United States
(February 15, 2025)  The campaign by President Trump and his adviser Musk to radically cut back the US bureaucracy has spread, firing more than 9,500 workers who handled everything from managing federal lands to caring for military veterans. About 1,200 to 2,000 workers at the Department of Energy were laid off, including 325 from the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), which oversees the nuclear stockpile, America’s nuclear weapons. NNSA is a semi-autonomous arm of the US Energy Department responsible for producing and dismantling nuclear weapons , providing the Navy with nuclear reactors for submarines and responding to radiological emergencies, among other duties. The agency also plays a role a key role in counter-terrorism, transporting nuclear weapons around the country and responding to nuclear incidents around the world. It began rescinding the terminations yesterday morning. Among those let go were NNSA personnel stationed at nuclear weapons manufacturing plants who inspect nuclear weapons and supervise the contractors who manufacture them. Employees at NNSA headquarters who draft specifications and directives for contractors producing nuclear weapons were also involved. Mass firings resulted in scenes of uncertainty and disarray at the civilian agency that manages the country's nuclear weapons arsenal over the past two days. The agency has begun to re-examine the terminations after realising the implications. (Source: TRT World – Turkey)

NATO

15.02.2025  At the Munich Security Conference in Germany, the NATO secretary general today called on European countries to make concrete proposals and ideas rather than complaining about being excluded from potential talks on Ukraine. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

Oceania

Cook Islands
February 15, 2025  China and the Cook Islands yesterday signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement. The Cook Islands has a free association agreement with New Zealand. The Cook Islands and China would look to deepen cooperation in areas such as deep-sea mining. Kiribati? (Source: VoA News - U.S.)

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Germany
14.02.2025  US Vice President Vance met with Weidel, the leader of Germany’s ’far-right’ Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, during his trip to Germany. Vance also held meetings with leaders of major German political parties as part of his visit. Earlier in the day, he met with German President Steinmeier. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

European Union
February 14, 2025  DeepSeek: A problem or an opportunity for Europe? On January 20, 2025, Chinese AI company DeepSeek released its R1 reasoning model. White House AI Czar Sacks said there is “substantial evidence” that DeepSeek distilled knowledge out of OpenAI’s models. European regulators have greeted DeepSeek’s rise with concern, even as leading European AI companies have expressed excitement. /Source: The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) - Headquarters in Washington D.C., U.S./
by Caroli,  a senior fellow of the Wadhwani AI Center at the CSIS in Washington, D.C.

Ukraine
(Friday), 14 February 2025  'Trump does not have a plan to end the war in Ukraine', Zelensky warned yesterday. The leader led a backlash against the White House alongside Sir Keir Starmer over concessions the US President made as part of a proposed Ukraine-Russia peace deal. His comments came after it emerged that on Wednesday Mr Trump had spoken to Russian president Putin for an hour and a half about the conflict. 'Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, warned the US against looking for a ‘dirty deal’ to end the conflict'. (Source: Daily Mail - United Kingdom)

Feb 14, 2025  Early this morning, Ukrainian sources released footage that according to them show a Russian attack drone targeting the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. /Photo, video/ (Source: BulgarianMilitary)
by Nikolov

North America

United States
(14 February 2025)  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first visit to Washington under Trump's second term was a working visit. India enjoys a trade surplus with the US, its top trading partner. India cut average tariffs from 13% to 11% in its federal budget in a bid to pre-empt Trump's tariff moves. 75% of the US exports to India attract import taxes of less than 5%. India has little reason to fear reciprocal tariffs. The new $500bn trade goal aims to more than double the $190bn trade between the two countries in 2023. Modi and Trump committed to negotiating the first phase of a trade agreement by autumn 2025. Talks will focus on market access, tariff reductions and supply chain integration across goods and services. What is this trade agreement? It doesn't necessarily mean a free trade deal - if that were the case, it would have been stated explicitly. It could simply involve tariff reductions on select products of mutual interest. "For instance the US sanctions on Russian shadow fleet are soon going to kick in, so India can easily pivot to the US for more oil", Kishore, principal economist at the Singapore-based consultancy firm, Asia Decoded, says. Trump said at the joint press conference that the US would hopefully become India's number one supplier of oil and gas. With delays and cost overruns affecting some of India's arms deals with Russia, Delhi's defence ties with the US look set to deepen. While Russia remains India's top source, its share has dropped from 62% to 34% (2017-2023) as India shifts toward US procurement. India's defence trade with the US has surged from near zero to $20 billion, making the US its third-largest arms supplier. Trump said the US would increase military equipment sales to India "by many billions of dollars starting this year". Modi met Tesla CEO Musk to discuss AI and emerging tech. It's unclear if they addressed Musk's stalled plans for Starlink's India launch or Tesla's market entry. India is courting Tesla to set up a car factory, cutting EV import taxes for automakers committing $500m and local production within three years. Tesla has yet to confirm its plans. In a rare move, Modi joined Trump at a press conference, answering two questions. Indian billionaire Adani, with close ties with Modi, was charged with fraud in the US last November over an alleged $250m bribery scheme. Modi said he hadn't discussed the issue with Trump. On immigration, he stated India was ready to take back verified illegal Indian migrants. (Source: BBC News - United Kingdom)

February 14, 2025  Kennedy Jr. was sworn yesterday as President Trump’s health secretary after a close Senate vote, putting the prominent vaccine skeptic in control of $1.7 trillion in federal spending, vaccine recommendations and food safety as well as health insurance programs for roughly half the country. (Source: AP News - U.S.)

Friday 14 February 2025  'Lasting peace' between Russia and Ukraine says US vice president Vance. The US wants to avoid seeing Eastern Europe "in conflict just a few years down the line" said the US vice president Vance during talks with Zelenskyy in Munich. /Video/ (Source: Sky News – United Kingdom)

Friday 14 February 2025  At the Munich Security Conference in Germany, today US vice president Vance has taken aim at United Kingdom and Europe over what he claimed was "backsliding" free speech and democracy. "When I look at Europe today, it's sometimes not so clear what happened to some of the Cold War's winners," he said, targeting perceived infringes on free speech. "Perhaps most concerningly, I look to our very dear friends, the United Kingdom, where the backslide away from conscience rights has placed the basic liberties of religious Britons, in particular, in the crosshairs," he added: Mr Vance criticised the country for the conviction of 51-year-old Smith-Connor, who was given a conditional discharge for breaching a safe zone around an abortion clinic in Bournemouth. "After British law enforcement spotted him and demanded to know what he was praying for, Adam replied simply, it was on behalf of the unborn son he and his former girlfriend had aborted years before," Mr Vance said. He then went on to talk about "safe access zones" in Scotland - a 200m wide area (150m in England) outside abortion clinics to stop anti-abortion campaigners leafleting, holding vigils, or showing graphic images to people near the sites. "In Britain, and across Europe, free speech I fear is in retreat," he said. In Washington, „there is a new sheriff in town” and „under Trump's leadership we may disagree with your views but we will fight to defend your right to offer it in the public square, agree or disagree," Mr Vance said to muted applause. As he listed values he believes Europe is diverging away from the US over, he raised immigration. He then switched his focus to the car attack in Munich yesterday, in which 36 people were injured. "I can't bring it up again without thinking about the terrible victims who had a beautiful winter day in Munich ruined," he said. "Our thoughts and prayers are with them and will remain with them. But why did this happen in the first place?" "No voter on this continent went to the ballot box to open the floodgates to millions of unvetted immigrants. "But you know what they did vote for in England? They voted for Brexit and, agree or disagree, they voted for it. "And more and more all over Europe, they're voting for political leaders who promised to put an end to out-of-control migration." Mr Vance also spoke about an annulled election in Romania, and issues in Sweden, Germany and Brussels. His speech was „the latest wake-up call for the UK and European nations in terms of security and the Trump administration's new foreign policy aims”. It highlighted the divergence between the new US administration and their ’allies’. /Photo, videos/ (Sky News – United Kingdom)

(14 February 2025)  US Vice-President Vance criticised European leaders over free speech and democracy at the Munich Security Conference: "I worry about the threat from within". /Video/ (Source: BBC -United Kingdom)

February 14, 2025 In adress to Munich Securita Conference, Vice president Vance, largely critical of Europe’s ’Soviet’-style censorship activities, insisted the gathered leaders should listen more to their voters and abandon censorship, after Germany accused Musk of trying to interfere in its national elections. "Trust me, I say this with all humor," he said. "If American democracy can survive ten years of Thunberg scolding, you guys can survive a few months of Musk", he quipped. Thunberg, the 22-year-old Swedish environmental crusader, stole the spotlight among liberals over her climate concerns before she even turned 18. ’How long do you think you can continue to ignore the climate crisis, the global aspect of equity and historic emissions without being held accountable?’ Thunberg asked U.S. lawmakers before the House Oversight Subcommittee on the Environment. "Don't invite us here to just tell us how inspiring we are without actually doing anything about it," she said at age 16.  Musk has gone toe-to-toe with Europe over censorship, and the European Commission recently ramped up its probe into whether Musk's X had breached EU rules on content moderation. Musk has called the commission "undemocractic" and called on the European Union to hold referendums to vote on policies that apply to all of its nations. Musk has also riled European officials with his support for the ’far-right’ Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany's elections, and for endorsing Britain's right-wing Reform party. /Photo, video/ (Source: Fox News – U.S.)

14.02.2025  US Vice President Vance has warned that the US could impose sanctions and possibly take military action if Russian President Putin refuses to negotiate a peace deal with Kyiv. Speaking to The Wall Street Journal yesterday, Vance said all options remain on the table, including the potential deployment of US troops to Ukraine, if Moscow fails to engage in talks in good faith. “There are economic tools of leverage, there are of course military tools of leverage” that Washington could use, Vance told the WSJ. The remarks follow President Trump’s announcement that he has begun negotiations with Putin to end the war in Ukraine. He’s going to say: "Everything is on the table, let’s make a deal", Vance said. Vance's remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Hegseth said Ukraine would likely not recover its territory lost since 2014, would not join NATO through negotiations, and that US priorities were shifting away from European and Ukrainian security. /Photo/  (Source: Anadolu Agency)

February 14, 2025  It is still unclear what kind of peace deal in Ukraine the Trump administration intends to reach with Russia. 'The Europeans should have no doubt as to what will be expected of them afterwards. 'The Trump administration is signaling that European allies need to take the lead in securing Ukraine. National Security Advisor Waltz recently warned: our underlying principle is that ’the Europeans have to own this conflict going forward’. President Trump is going to end it, and 'then in terms of security guarantees, that is squarely going to be with the Europeans. Clearly, they have to step up and take more responsibility for their own defense and the maintenance of peace on the continent. If they don’t, "the partnership will fray irreparably, and their aspirations to be taken seriously in the emerging multipolar world order will be revealed as empty'. 'The Trump administration cannot afford to see the Europeans fail. It must ensure that any cease-fire in Ukraine stays intact and that Russia does not use it simply to pause before resuming its war of aggression. ’This requires that the United States continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine and signal that it will backstop European efforts to secure peace’. ’Only through such credible assurances will Russian President Putin accept and respect a cease-fire. The goal for Ukraine should be to keep the Russians out, the Europeans in, and the Americans on call'. How is this to be done? ’First, the Europeans must provide the Trump administration with a clear and realistically resourced plan for how they can, together, support Ukraine’s national defense forces in an equitable way for the foreseeable future’. ’Ukraine can provide the core of its own defense requirements with the manpower it has for approximately $20–40 billion a year.’ ’This requires, among other things, continued Western arms supplies, intelligence support, and training’. ’The Europeans need to help backstop Ukraine’s security with their own forces’. ’The Europeans need to put skin in the game something that only the presence of a sizable military deployment of about twenty thousand or more troops on Ukrainian soil can do’. ’One option would be to invoke the Berlin-plus formula designed to facilitate the European Union (EU) to draw on NATO assets to support its own Common Security and Defense Policy missions abroad’. ’Going this route would support the EU’s offer that Ukraine become a member of the Union and also signal its intent to be taken seriously as a geopolitical actor’. This has been used on at least two prior occasions for peacekeeping operations in the Balkans. ’Such an approach could also allow the United Kingdom, no longer part of the EU but one of Europe’s top three military powers, to participate and contribute’. If this option is too difficult because it will require the unanimous support of all EU members - something that cannot be assumed - then the Europeans can organize a coalition of the willing as 'the next best solution'. 'There’s precedent' for such a coalition; the British-led multinational Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) established in 2018 draws on NATO assets to respond to threats in northern Europe and the Baltic region. But, instead of the JEF’s relatively small rapid reaction force of around ten thousand troops, ’an EU-led coalition would require something more robust, involving contributions from Bulgaria, France, Germany, Poland, Romania, and the UK’. The key idea is this: ’whatever foreign troops are in Ukraine under a future armistice must be capable of fighting in place’ to defend themselves against a possible future Russian attack until reinforcements could arrive. If Ukraine does its part and builds a viable self-defense force, the European capability will function primarily as a backup and will not be in acute danger of being overrun ’in the opening days of a hypothetical war’. It should have time to consolidate its disparate elements 'within Ukraine and organize a serious defense in conjunction with Kyiv’. ’Doing so would not require the two hundred thousand European troops that President Zelenskyy has proposed—but would require perhaps twenty thousand’. 'For example', modern brigade combat teams - the key fighting units of Western militaries today - typically consist of 3,500 troops, plus two to three times as many uniformed individuals in support and several thousand more personnel to provide airpower capabilities. The Trump administration must convey to the Europeans that it stands behind their commitment to Ukraine’s defense - materially and politically - and thus provide the other key element of a serious deterrence strategy against Russia. ’The future U.S. military posture in Europe needs to move a bit further east than it was before 2022’, with response forces in Poland and perhaps the Baltic states as well. ’The right ballpark figure is perhaps another ten thousand U.S. troops' in Poland or points east, above and beyond the five thousand troops deployed there in 2021. 'Moreover, the United States should not a priori rule out deploying forces inside Ukraine', something that U.S. Vice President Vance has recently indicated is not off the table. Waltz’s démarche to NATO allies is right - up to a point. The Europeans do need to do more, but two immensely costly world wars in the last century should remind Waltz that this is not the time for the United States to risk a third by hastily disengaging from Ukraine once the guns fall silent. (Source: The Council on Foreign Relations - based in New York City, with an additional office in Washington, D.C. It publishes the bi-monthly journal Foreign Affairs. CFR meetings discuss international issues. It also runs the Rockefeller Studies Program, which publishes research on foreign policy issue, makes recommendations to the diplomatic community and presidential administration).
by Stares, the General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he directs the Center on Preventive Action; O’Hanlon, who holds the Phil H. Knight chair in defense and strategy at the Brookings Institution.

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Asia

Gaza
13.02.2025  How does the Gaza redevelopment plan tie into maritime politics? What seems like a humanitarian policy for Gaza may be a stepping stone towards a battle for the control of a maritime trade route. Gaza’s reconstruction is a strategic cover leading to a contestation in maritime control. Critics assume that the “Riviera of Middle East” project is about the US vying for domination of the Suez Canal or potentially a covert policy that takes a step towards the Ben Gurion Canal project initiated by Israel to divert maritime trade in its favour. This route is also expected to pass through the Gaza Strip. This redevelopment and reconstruction project can be used to justify US and Israeli military assets being stationed in the Gaza Strip to secure the region and naturally give them direct access to the Ben Gurion Canal route. If Gaza is cleared, this plan removes the political and logistical obstacles; the initiators of this project may go as far as altering the demographics and infrastructure to pave the way for the canal. Propping up the Ben Gurion Canal as a competitor to the Suez Canal would prove to be a scintillating phenomenon in the geopolitics of the Middle East. This redevelopment plan for Gaza, leading to the creation of the Ben Gurion Canal, will alter trade and maritime patterns away from the Suez. The Suez Canal handles almost 12% of global trade, connecting Europe, Asia, and the Americas, being a critical choke point for Gulf oil exports to Europe and North America. China’s Belt and Road Initiative relies on this particular route. For Egypt, the Suez Canal is a strong national asset, which reliably generates 9-10 billion dollars annually. Hypothetically, if the US’s underlying strategic objectives are to control the canal for its geopolitical interests, it may need to draft some serious strategic manoeuvring and agreements with President Sisi. Already the US provides Egypt military aid worth around 1.3 billion dollars annually. A new deal could increase the aid in exchange for operational oversight of Suez, or even broker IMF-backed debt relief if Egypt grants that sort of influence over Suez. But let’s say diplomatic overtures fail to convince Egypt, then certainly, the US could potentially disrupt the Suez’s revenue model by backing the Israel-led Ben Gurion Canal project. If Gaza’s reconstruction leads to the successful build-up of the Ben Gurion Canal, it will shrink Egypt’s dominance in maritime logistics. China has noteworthy investments in Egypt’s Suez Economic Zone, with over 140 Chinese companies operating and contributing about 1.6 billion dollars in investments, along with the investments in Egypt’s Ain Sokhna Port. Today 60% of China’s exports to Europe pass through the Suez. Any shift in the control of Suez will impact China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments. If the US manages to exert dominion over the Suez or promotes the Ben Gurion Canal, China could face higher transit fees, more US-controlled inspections, and potential trade slowdowns during geopolitical conflicts. For China, the hyper-dominance of Washington on the Suez Canal will likely hamper its BRI projects in the region, even including those with Africa. US-backed Ben Gurion alternative would divert trade dynamics away from the usual routes. If the US gains influence over both Gaza and Suez, it dominates the global trade flows. We can expect the Chinese to respond by negotiating with Israel or deepening its strategic ties with Egypt and Iran. Several instances from Cold War era confrontations: In 1956 the UK, Israel, and France attacked Egypt to take back control of the Suez, leading to a US-Soviet intervention. Today China could come through as a counterbalance. In the 1970s and 1980s, the US sought control in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean to secure oil routes - in response the Soviets expanded their naval presence throughout Yemen and India to counterbalance. Today if the US aims to dominate Suez, China would potentially strike a deal with Israel. If the US tries to sway maritime controls through Ben Gurion, China, would expand its naval presence in the Red Sea and Egypt. Will Egypt’s decision-making determine the balance of power between the US and China? If the Ben Gurion dream is achieved, it will become a turning point in global trade patterns. (Source: Valdai Discussion Club - Russia / Reuters - United Kingdom)
by Aatif, a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project

North America

United States
Feb. 13, 2025  Trump says Saudi Arabia may host talks with Putin on Ukraine. “We expect that he’ll come here, and I’ll go there and we’re going to meet also probably in Saudi Arabia the first time,” Mr. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. (Source: The New York Times - U.S.)

February 13, 2025, Thursday  Trump confirmed that he and Putin discussed the war and agreed that their administrations would begin negotiations “immediately.” Meanwhile, the Kremlin stated that Putin emphasized the need to address what Russia sees as the fundamental causes of the conflict and expressed agreement with Trump that a long-term resolution could be reached through diplomacy. During his phone call with Zelensky, Trump reportedly shared details of his conversation with Putin. When asked at a press conference whether he considered Ukraine an equal participant in peace talks, Trump reiterated that Ukraine must seek peace. When pressed about whether he supported territorial concessions by Ukraine, he noted that Zelensky would "have to do what he has to do" and commented on the Ukrainian leader’s declining approval ratings. The Kremlin has firmly rejected any proposals for territorial exchanges. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev dismissed the idea as nonsense. Kremlin spokesman Peskov stated that Russia would never discuss the exchange of its territory. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria; 'Ukrainska Pravda - Ukraine; ISW; WSJ' = U.S.)

Thu February 13, 2025  Scores of firings have begun at federal agencies, with terminations of probationary employees underway at the Department of Education and the Small Business Administration. Until now, federal employees across all government agencies had only been placed on paid administrative leave. The move came the same day as a federal judge allowed the administration’s deferred resignation program to proceed. About 77,000 employees have accepted the offer, which generally allows them to leave their jobs but be paid through the end of September. A form letter sent to Department of Education employees, informing them of their termination stated: “The Agency finds, based on your performance, that you have not demonstrated that your further employment at the Agency would be in the public interest.” On Friday and Monday, probationary employees across the Small Business Administration had received an unsigned draft notice of employment termination, according to internal agency emails. Notices of termination were then sent to probationary employees the next day, according to the union representing the employees. Probationary employee firings were also expected at the US Energy Department today evening. There are around 2,000 probationary employees at DOE. The Energy Department’s acting general counsel had a today meeting with heads of department offices and asked offices to compile lists of “mission-critical” probationary employees who could potentially be exempt from the layoffs. But those lists hadn’t been finalized as of today afternoon. Probationary employees are defined as federal employees who have been with the department for less than a year. A recent Office of Personnel Management memo also stated federal employees working for less than two years could also be considered probationary. On January 20, the acting head of OPM sent a memo to all agencies ordering them to compile a list of all their probationary workers and send it to the office. Agencies should focus on those who have been underperforming,  the advisory shows. The firings are part of the administration’s multipronged effort to slash the size of the federal workforce. Trump began the planning process for widespread layoffs on Tuesday, when he signed an executive order telling agency leaders to start preparations for reductions in force, or RIFs. The president is also hoping to push federal staffers who work fully remotely or telework on certain days by requiring them to return to the office full-time. Plus, he has targeted federal employees involved in diversity, equity, inclusion and accessibility initiatives and at the Education Department, the US Agency for International Development and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. (Source: CNN – U.S.)

February 13th, 2025   Musk, apparently disgruntled by a Reuters article arguing DOGE cuts were politically motivated, asked followers to find out how much federal money the organization had received. DOGE’s agency head  Musk boosted a post on X claiming the contract showed the “news agency received millions for social engineering.” Today Trump posted on Truth Social: DOGE: Looks like Radical Left Reuters was paid $9,000,000 by the Department of Defense to study “large scale social deception.” GIVE BACK THE MONEY, NOW! Issued by the Department of Defense through the Air Force Research Laboratory and DARPA, the contract is described on the government’s USA Spending website as being in relation to Active Social Engineering Defense (ASED), Large Scale Social Deception (LSD). ’The ASED program aims to create scalable systems capable of detecting, analyzing, and mitigating threats to bolster cybersecurity’. ’The contract in question, issued in 2018 during the first Trump administration, was actually awarded to Thomson Reuters Special Services for cybersecurity research’, ’ which operates separately from Reuters News and specializes in fraud detection and risk management’. Trump made it closer to the truth in saying that the contract was to study it. ’In a statement, Rubley, CEO of Thomson Reuters Special Services, said the following: Thomson Reuters Special Services (TRSS), LLC is a separate U.S. legal entity governed by an independent Board of Directors, that operates independently from Reuters News. Recent public discourse has conflated these entities and has inaccurately represented the nature of the business between TRSS and the Department of Defense’. ’Thomson Reuters commercial agreements, including Reuters News commercial agreements, have no influence over or impact on Reuters editorial coverage’. (Source: Mediaite – U.S.)

February 13, 2025  Hundreds of world leaders and delegates are set to attend the Munich Security Conference this weekend - with conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and simmering tensions in the Indo-Pacific, on the agenda. All eyes will be on the approach of the U.S. delegation under the new administration of President Trump. /Video/ (Source: VoA - U.S.)

NATO

13/02/2025, Thursday  In a joint news conference with NATO chief Rutte in Brussels, Hegseth recalled US President Trump's call, and said: 'The president has said 2% is not enough, and we are going to argue that up to 5% is the necessary investment from NATO countries to ensure we are able to meet the threats of the future.' Rutte, for his part, backed Hegseth's remarks, saying: 'We have to ramp up defense spending because we know we cannot protect ourselves four or five years from now if we do not.' He also said all allies agreed that there must be peace in Ukraine, that it must be durable, and that Ukraine must be in a position of strength. (Source: Yeni Safak - Turkey)

13/02/2025  Hegseth rules out Ukraine's NATO entry. Pantagon chief: Unrealistic to return to 2014 borders. Trump and Putin had essentially started bilateral peace talks. Pretty 'stunned', German and French foreign ministers said that Europeans 'cannot be ignored in this process'. It is the US that calls the shots. (Reports from NATO headquarters in Brussels). /Video/ (Source: France24)

13.02.2025  Ukraine 'must be closely involved' in everything happening about Ukraine, the NATO chief Rutte said at the doorstep of the defense ministers meeting in Brussels today. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

13.02.2025  While the US remains committed to NATO, Europe must take greater responsibility for its own defense as the US shifts focus to Indo-Pacific threats, US Defense Secretary Hegseth emphasized at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels, yesterday.'There are no plans right now in the making to cut anything,' he said later, during a media availability in Stuttgart, while urging NATO allies 'to boost defense spending to 5% of GDP'. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Global

February 13, 2025 To avoid escalation, neutral countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America should play peacekeeper in Ukraine, providing troops - rather than the EU. An EU deployment lacks credibility. The consistent unwillingness, aside from rhetorical flourishes from Macron, to send troops to Ukraine during an ongoing conflict suggests that should fighting resume between Russia and Ukraine, the EU will lack the will to commit. A pan-European force would remain indistinguishable from a NATO one for the Russians. Combined with the bellicose rhetoric of some Western leaders, including supporting direct strikes inside of Russia, such a deployment would be seen as NATO expansion by stealth. On Feb. 12. U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth confirmed the Trump administration’s opposition to Ukraine’s membership in NATO and instead called for “capable European and non-European troops” to provide security guarantees - without U.S. troop involvement. The wide number of peace initiatives and proposals - coming from countries such as Indonesia, Mexico, and the African delegation that visited Kyiv and Moscow  -  suggests that there is a real willingness by these nonaligned states to play a significant role. The ever-expanding BRICS+ group, alongside members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, now have a genuine opportunity to help define a new era of international security. The African Union, meanwhile, has gained decades of experience by conducting its own peacekeeping missions. Even Persian Gulf countries could send military and political officers to help defuse tensions as they have been able to cultivate trust with both Russia and Ukraine by organizing several rounds of prisoner exchanges. An effective force does not have to be large since its goal should not be to be able to fight one of the parties but rather to simply keep the peace. A cease-fire has to be agreed to before peacekeepers arrive. Additionally, a clear demarcation of the front line needs to be made before their arrival. A withdrawal by both sides from the front will also reduce the risk of accidental clashes. There remains a wide scope for participation. Chile, for example, has offered to assist with demining. Some European countries may be able to play a role. Hungary and Slovakia, may even be welcomed given their stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. More likely, however, is that the EU can help finance a peacekeeping force. The EU should embrace this as an opportunity to create space between its troops and Russia’s. Rather than trying to monopolize the structures of international security, Europe would be better off embracing the global south as an integral part of the solution to stabilizing its own backyard. (Source: Foreign Policy - U.S.)
By Habtom, a former guest researcher at the Swedish Defense University and a doctoral candidate on contemporary European military and diplomatic history at the University of Cambridge.

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Austria
13/02/2025  The leader of the ’far-right’ Freedom Party (FPÖ), Kickl, has called for "quick new elections" after coalition talks with his party and the centre-right People's Party (ÖVP) collapsed yesterday. Both parties are unable to agree which would have control of the country's interior ministry. Kickl came first in elections held in September with 28% of the vote. Austria's other parties banded together in order to keep him and his party out of power. When those talks failed, Kickl was invited to hold coalition talks with the ÖVP. Austria's President der Bellen is set to hold talks with the leaders of all parties over today and tomorrow, to explore options for what a new government could look like. In a statement yesterday, he said there would be four possible options for Austria: fresh elections, a minority government, a government of non-elected experts or a new coalition comprised of several parties. Political scientist Filzmaier called the breakdown of negotiations a "bizarre spectacle on the open stage." (Source: Euronews - headquarters Lyon, France)

France
February 13, 2025  Twelve people were injured after man throws grenade into a bar in Grenoble in the Olympic Village neighborhood, after 8 pm yesterday. At least two people were left in critical condition after the grenade exploded. Investigators are looking at a possible connection to drug trafficking and believed it was an act of extreme violence, possibly linked to 'a settling of scores.' (Source: Le Monde „with AFP” = France)

Germany
(13 February 2025)  A 24-year-old Afghan asylum seeker drove a car into a rally during a strike by public sector workers in Munich today, injuring at least 30 people. The driver of the Mini Cooper accelerated before hitting the crowd. Something must change in Germany, Bavaria state premier Söder told. (Source: BBC News – United Kingdom)

Russia
2/13/2025  U.S. President Trump was offering unprecedented concessions to Russia in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine yesterday - seemingly without getting anything in return. Before the formal peace talks with Russian President Putin even started, Trump and members of his administration dismissed the idea that Ukraine could reclaim its territories that Russia currently occupies, slammed the door shut for Kyiv’s hope of NATO membership, and refused to acknowledge Ukraine as an equal member in the peace process. Kremlin’s talking heads are surprised and amazed that the leader of ’the mightiest nation in the world is treating war criminal Putin as his equal’. Russian state TV and radio stations were full of elated propagandists, who grinned ear to ear. During yesterday’s broadcast of the state TV program 60 Minutes, host Skabeeva described the events as unthinkable and unimaginable. She asked Antonov, the network’s correspondent in Europe, who said that the era of American dominance had ended and surmised that Europe wouldn’t be able to compete with the volume of military assistance America used to provide. Throughout his commentary, Skabeeva couldn’t hide her glee. Co-host of 60 Minutes  Popov marveled at the fact that Trump is destroying Western alliances and ’sawing” Europe into pieces’. „The president of the United States called the president of Russia. That alone is already a major success!,” Director General of Mosfilm Shakhnazarov said, during yesterday’s broadcast of The Evening With Solovyov,  Shakhnazarov explained. “It’s as if Julius Caesar himself telephoned a barbarian, a chieftain of some German tribe.” Solovyov rejoiced about an assertion by Defense Secretary Hegseth that the United States intended to disregard NATO’s Article 5 in the event Europe militarily engaged with Russia. Political scientist Mikheyev said: ’In this situation, we should make it clear for the Europeans: now we can really strike Brussels, London or Paris, because we can forget about Article 5. You can forget the notion that Americans would step in on your behalf.” Solovyov chimed in to add, ’I like the way you think.’ During today’s radio show, Full Contact, Solovyov approvingly read commentary by the network’s correspondent in the U.S., Bogdanov, who wrote, “During negotiations, the victors are the ones dictating conditions.” (Source: MSN / The Daily Beast = U.S.)

Ukraine
February 13, 2025  With President Trump again in office, changes in the position of the United States in terms of its support for Ukraine are possible, and the pressure on the Ukrainian leadership to accede to demands that it surrender land to the Russians will be intensified. Russia currently controls around 17.3 percent of Ukrainian territory. Putin has made clear that he seeks vast areas in Ukraine beyond the current front lines. He now lays claim to all of four regions in southern and eastern Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts) in addition to Crimea. In recent extensive remarks on the possibility of resolving the conflict, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov made it absolutely clear that Russia requires the Ukrainians to surrender “Crimea, Donbass, and Novorossiya,” which not coincidentally includes these four oblasts. The war has severely degraded Ukraine’s industrial capacity and supporting infrastructure. Restoring Ukraine’s economy is the most crucial element in ensuring the country’s very existence as a viable and secure state going forward. How Ukraine’s economic landscape has been and will be changed? Four of the most economically important regions at the outbreak of the 2022 war (Kyiv city and Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Kyiv oblasts) have been among the most heavily attacked by Russian ground, air, and naval forces. The latest estimates available from the World Bank’s Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA3) showed that as of December 2023 the total damage was $486 billion, a figure that has certainly grown significantly since. After suffering a 30 percent decline in 2022, ’the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development estimate that the Ukrainian economy will actually grow in the low single digits in 2024 and 2025’. Exports, reorienting away from Russia and towards the European Union, have suffered major declines since March 2022. Seizure of key industrial plants and resource extraction sites that are place-bound are especially problematic. The closure of the coking coal mine at Pokrovsk and threats against the large lithium mine at Shevchenko, both in the Donetsk region, have negative effects on industries elsewhere in the country that depend on those inputs and on exports of the products thereof. Significant shifts in the spatial distribution of the Ukrainian economy towards central and western regions of the country, which was already underway before 2022, is a key element in the sustainment and even, in some cases, growth of production and provision of services nationally. Foreign direct investment likewise has been directed towards regions further removed from the war zone in the western and central regions. Regions in the central and western parts of the country have increased their share of national exports, another indication that the economy is moving westward. Certainly other key issues will be involved in peace talks, ’such as NATO membership’ and other security guarantees, repatriation of civilians and prisoners of war, and reparations. In November 2022 the U.N. General Assembly voted to hold Russia responsible for paying reparations to Ukraine for war damage. Requiring Moscow to actually pay from its assets abroad for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy will be very difficult over the near term and is likely a non-starter. Planning and executing economic development projects in the most favorably situated areas with a view to maximizing and securing future growth will, over the longer term, be Ukraine’s ultimate weapon in achieving its rightful place as a free and democratic country. (Source: War on the Rocks – U.S.)
by Clem, emeritus professor of geography and senior fellow in the Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs at Florida International University; Herron, the Eberly Family distinguished professor of political science at West Virginia University; Hoheneder, a doctoral student in earth sciences at the University of New Hampshire; Pelchar, a doctoral student in political science and history at West Virginia University.

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Europe

Hungary
12/2/2025  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met Weidel, the co-leader of the ’far-right’ Alternative for Germany party in Budapest today. They discussed EU policy, Ukraine and hold a joint press conference. Orbán has hitherto been careful to keep his distance from the AfD, with officials saying he did not want to antagonise mainstream German parties for whom the AfD is anathema. /Photo/ (Source: MSN - U.S. / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Germany
12.02.2025  ’As climate change progresses, the number of people who are being forced to leave their homes and cross borders due to environmental change is increasing. ’At the same time, they lack safe, orderly and regular migration pathways. 'Regional free movement can expand the leeway for those who are particularly affected by climate change. The African regional organisations ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) and IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) have both concluded agreements that could guarantee such free movement of persons. ’In order to take advantage of these agreements in terms of climate mobility, German and European development and migration policy should do more to implement regional free movement’. "Both agreements allow member states to suspend free movement under certain conditions and to refuse entry to certain groups of people – for example in the event of a serious threat to internal security or if migrants are not financially self-sufficient".  'Countries could make use of these exemptions, in particular if the consequences of climate change lead to large-scale refugee and migration movements. 'Although both agreements prohibit mass expulsions, people moving across borders under the free movement of persons within ECOWAS and IGAD are not fundamentally protected from refoulement to areas that are becoming increasingly uninhabitable due to the effects of climate change. 'Free movement agreements can facilitate the mobility of some individuals and groups in the context of climate change, but in no way replace refugee policy instruments such as resettlement programmes or humanitarian visas". "African countries are becoming increasingly sceptical about opening borders and immigration. 'Although the protocols on the free movement of persons have been ratified, there are repeated expulsions of migrants from the region, refusals at internal borders and arbitrary border closures within ECOWAS". 'In a situation in which European policy in Africa is increasingly being contested, and at the same time the influence of Russia and China on the continent is growing, it is all the more important to keep an eye on the interests of regional organisations as part of a partnership policy and not to disrupt well-functioning regional cooperation". (Source: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik; SWP - the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Headquarters in Berlin, Germany)
by Dr Korte, who was an Associate in the Global Issues Research Division at SWP until December 2024; Landmesser, a Research Assistant in the Global Issues Research Division.
Written as part of the research project 'Strategic Refugee and Migration Policy, funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development'.

Romania
(12.02.2025)  Iohannis stepped down as president today. It was an ignominious end to a failed presidency. He leaves office as the most unpopular Romanian president of the post-communist era. The hallmarks of his presidency were silence, absence from the public eye and - on those rare occasions when he did actually say something - statements that often seemed inappropriate and were sometimes hair-raising. Iohannis' resignation will not eliminate the causes of the country's current difficult political situation. In a result that shocked the nation, the first round of the presidential election last November was won by outsider Georgescu, a far-right, pro-Russian conspiracy theorist who has called for the dismantling and break-up of Ukraine and glorified the Christian Orthodox Romanian fascists of the interwar years. But Iohannis' most serious legacy will be the fact that during his presidency, right-wing, pro-Russian forces in Romania grew stronger than they have ever been in the past 35 years. ’The establishment’ in Romania is a high-handed political class that has set up a clientalistic system that reaches into even the smallest public structures at all levels and whose most prominent figures are often embroiled in corruption scandals. Johannis won his first term as president in late 2014. He quickly gave the impression that he was not the right man for the job. He turned out to be a passive president. Low points in his first term included the stripping of Tőkés of an order of merit - Tőkés is an ethnic Hungarian pastor whose anti-communist resistance triggered the uprising against Ceausescu in 1989 - and the dismissal of the former anti-corruption public prosecutor Kövesi, who is now European Chief Prosecutor. Although himself a member of one of Romania's German minorities, Johannis stirred up negative feelings towards Romania's Hungarian minority during an address to the nation in spring 2020, accused it of separatism, disparaged the Hungarian language and accused the Social Democrats, who were in the opposition at the time, of supporting the alleged Hungarian plan for the secession of Transylvania. It reminded many of the darkest period of Romanian nationalism. He was back in the headlines for the expensive renovation of the presidential palace and his official residences as well as for making expensive trips in a luxury jet - all things that did not go down well in a country that is one of the poorest in the EU. Extreme right-wing parties, who are calling for Romania to leave the EU and NATO, are now stronger than they have ever been in the post-communist era. Together, three 'far-right parties now account for over 35% of lawmakers in parliament after last year's general election. His slogan in the 2014 presidential election was "President of a job well done," which in Romanian was a nod to the image of the thorough, reliable German who does quality work. Romanian journalist and writer Popescu has since paraphrased this slogan, referring to Iohannis as the "President of a disaster well done." (Source: DW – Germany)
by Verseck, editor, writer and reporter

Ukraine
12.02.2025  Zelenskyy met the new US Treasury Secretary Bessent in Kyiv today. The hedge fund manager was pursuing access to Ukrainian resources like rare earths, as Trump tries to leverage US support for Ukraine into future financial gains for the wealthy. Bessent and Zelenskyy presented a draft agreement regarding the mining of the valuable materials by US investors. ’We will do everything to ensure that our teams can get down to work, agree on something very quickly and sign the document,’ Zelensky said after the meeting. ’We are talking about the joint development of deposits,’ he emphasized. (Source: DW – Germany)

United Kingdom
February 12, 2025,  „We know that when conflict escalates in the Middle East, the Jewish community always suffers”, the government’s Independent Adviser on Antisemitism, Lord Mann, said. The Community Security Trust has recorded the second-highest number of anti-Jewish hate incidents in the UK for the calendar year of 2024 - 3,528 incidents. In 2023, the worst year on record, 4,296 incidents occurred, caused by antisemitic responses to the 7 October 2023 mass terror attack in Israel and the subsequent Middle East war. Those who are complicit in this antisemitism range from social media giants to the Islamist and far Left extremists who celebrated the Hamas terror attacks, CST’s chief executive, Gardner said. These hatreds are compounded by the stony silence with which Jewish concerns are met in far too many places of work, education and culture. It leaves Jews feeling ever more isolated and worried for the future.” The 2024 incident report (Source: Jewish News, a free weekly newspaper, that serves the Jewish communities of Greater London, United Kingdom)

Asia

Syria
12.02.2025  Since the fall of Assad, there has been an increase in targeted attacks on Syria’s Alawite population. This violence is an expression of a deeply entrenched stigmatisation, fuelled for decades by a narrative based on an ‘Alawite regime’. The vulnerability of the Alawite population, both in Syria and the Middle East historically is rooted in the rejection of reforms and divergent faiths by orthodox Sunni Islam. (Source: International Political Sociology, a quarterly journal, published by Oxford University Press, United Kingdom)
by Walo, who studied social sciences in Berlin, Ankara and Riga, with a focus on Syria and Turkey.

North America

United States
Feb 12, 2025  President Trump has fired Martin, the inspector general for the US Agency for International Development (USAID). In his executive order, Trump said US foreign aid organizations "are not aligned with American interests and in many cases antithetical to American values." (Source: NewsBytes – India)

Wednesday 12 February 2025 20:17 GMT Trump said he and Russian president Putin agreed by phone to begin negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine and will “work together, very closely”. The US president said today that the leaders are to meet in person and their respective teams will start talks “immediately”. “We each talked about the strengths of our respective nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together,” Mr Trump said in a social media post. “But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine.” Mr Trump also spoke at length with Zelensky. White House officials today declined to clarify if Ukraine would be a party to the US talks with Russia. US vice-president Vance, secretary of state Rubio and Mr Trump’s special Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired general Kellogg, will all be in Germany later this week for the annual Munich Security Conference, which Mr Zelensky will also attend. US defence secretary Hegseth ruled out Nato membership for Ukraine and suggested Kyiv should abandon hope of a return to its pre-2014 borders. Kremlin spokesman Peskov said the conversation between Mr Trump and Mr Putin covered a good deal of ground, including the Middle East and Iran in addition to Ukraine, which was the main focus. Mr Peskov said that Mr Trump called for a quick cessation of hostilities and a peaceful settlement and that Mr Putin “emphasized the need to remove the root causes of the conflict and agreed with Trump that a long-term settlement could be achieved through peace talks”. He added: “The Russian president invited the US president to visit Moscow and expressed readiness to host US officials in Russia for issues of mutual interest, naturally including Ukraine, the Ukrainian settlement.” (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

NATO

(12 February 2025  'Defence spending from Canada and European NATO allies jumped by 20% year-on-year in 2024, but considerably more money is needed before the end of the decade to deter a Russian attack', Rutte said today. Defence ministers from the 32-member organisation will gather in Brussels tomorrow for their first meeting since Trump's new administration was inaugurated, with support for Ukraine and defence spending topping the agenda. A White Paper on defence detailing the military capabilities the bloc needs and the various options to finance them is to be released on March 19, with decisions set for the June leader's summit, held a day after the NATO gathering. (Source: Euronews - a television news network, headquartered in Lyon, France)

'Global

(February 12, 2025)  'Corruption Perceptions Index' (Source: Transparency International - Headquarters Berlin, Germany)
Opinion: 'The index is meaningless nonsense, in which “corrupt” is just a synonym for poor'. (Bullough)

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Sajtótájékoztató Weidel-lel, az AfD elnökével

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Europe

Romania
February 11th, 2025 In November, Georgescu emerged from obscurity to win the first round of (the now cancelled) Romanian presidential elections. His connections to the Romanian state, to the parties that have dominated the Romanian political scene since 1989, and to neo-fascist movements have captured much of the attention. Analyses of his ideological roots - interwar fascism, mystical Orthodoxy and the national communism of the 20th century - as well as the massive support he enjoyed on social media have also contributed to building a complex image of him. According to a recent poll, he remains in pole position ahead of the reorganised elections in May, though it is unclear whether he will be allowed to run again. His dramatic rise in support, the popularity of Georgescu - this skilled political entrepreneur - rests on his ability to project three distinct types of authority: traditional, rational-legal and charismatic authority. That, together, project a complex vision. The first two avatars speak to the disappointment and fear of his audience. The last avatar cultivates hope through a vision of national salvation that requires the leadership of men of great valour who are “born not made”. Largely incompatible with one another, the three types of authority he projects have helped him attract different types of voter. His style paradoxically invites people to distance themselves from the sordid circus of other far-right leaders, while simultaneously maintaining – if not amplifying – their most dangerous ideas. The challenge for his opponents will be 'to pierce the veneer of propriety' that serves to legitimise his anti-democratic political project. (Source: The London School of Economics - England)
by Mihai, a Professor and Personal Chair of Political Theory at the University of Edinburgh; Ungureanu, the Serra Húnter Associate Professor of Political Philosophy at Pompeu Fabra University.

European Commission
11.02.2025  European Commission President der Leyen today met with US Vice President Vance in Paris, discussing cooperation on shared challenges, following the AI Action Summit in which they participated early today. At the beginning of the meeting, Vance called EU foreign policy chief Kallas, who also attended the talks. Vance and der Leyen also discussed cooperation on shared challenges, expressing their intention to prioritize economic areas of mutual interest, including energy. For her part, Kallas said that they discussed key issues like Russia’s war on Ukraine, strengthening European defense, and China’s actions. The meeting came as trade tensions soared between the US and the EU after the White House slapped additional tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. (Source: Anadolu Agency, Turkey)

European Parliament
11 February 2025  In a statement, 'to uphold' Ukraine’s right to self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter, the EP Conference of Presidents calls for 'continued and enhanced military support' to Ukraine, including the provision of defence equipment, training, and strategic assistance necessary. (Source: European Parliament - Meeting place: Strasbourg, France)

February 11, 2025  A 'former' Fidesz cadre, Magyar, 43, made a Facebook post a week after the clemency scandal erupted in early February. The scandal involved a presidential pardon granted to the former deputy director of a children’s home, who had covered up the sexual abuse of minors by his superior. As discontent grew, the first Hungarian female president and who had co-signed the pardon, Justice Minister Varga, ex-wife of Magyar, was sacrificed. Magyar quickly capitalised it, as an insider within the Fidesz ecosystem with 'his resignation from all state-affiliated positions in protest against the government’s corruption and moral shortcomings, particularly in relation to the clemency scandal,' announcing the creation of a new political movement, named Tisza Party. The party was rapidly gaining support, mobilised disillusioned voters, leading up to the June European Parliament elections, overtaking older opposition parties like DK, Momentum and Jobbik. The formation received more votes than all other opposition parties combined, securing seven mandates in the European Parliament and ten seats in the Budapest Assembly. The party leader faces the 'daunting task" of building a nationwide party infrastructure and fielding 106 strong candidates for the upcoming parliamentary elections. Critics question whether he can sustain his momentum and whether his movement will remain a one-man show or evolve into a structured political party. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Berlin, Germany)

Russia
February 11, 2025  Russian tourists are increasingly booking trips to Europe, with a sharp rise in hotel reservations for Spain, France and Italy, according to leading online travel aggregators. Overall, outbound tourism from Russia was up by a fourth in 2024 as more than 29mn trips abroad were made last year, including 11.5mn for tourism – a 25% increase on trips made in 2023. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Berlin, Germany)

Serbia
11 February 2025  As daily protests of students and citizens against him continue, the President of Serbia, Vucic, today called his supporters for another anti-protest rally for the day of country’s statehood, Saturday (February 15). (Source: DTT-net, a Brussels-based news agency on Western Balkan affairs)

Asia

China
February 11, 2025  China has introduced new rules on publishing People's Liberation Army (PLA)-related content online as authorities seek to tighten control over sensitive military information. The guidelines were jointly announced over the weekend by 10 government departments, including China's internet regulator, top spy agency, and the President Xi chaired Central Military Commission. (Source: Miami Herald / Newsweek = U.S.)

Iran
February 11, 2025  Trump, on February 4, 2025, reiterated his position that Iran must not have nuclear weapons. In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and Iranian Vice President for Strategic Affairs Zarif, the former foreign minister and leader of the nuclear talks with the Obama administration, banded together to again bring up the lie about Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei's nonexistent fatwa that allegedly guarantees that Iran cannot produce or obtain nuclear weapons. /Source: Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) *, an American press monitoring organization. Headquarters Washington D.C., U.S.)
* critics describe it as a strongly pro-Israel advocacy group

Jordan
Feb 11, 2025  Jordan’s King Abdullah II, said he would need to wait for other Arab leaders, including  Crown Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia and President Sisi of Egypt, before responding directly. President Sisi and other Arab leaders will meet in Cairo on February 27, ostensibly to propose an alternative to Trump’s plan to forcibly remove Palestinians from Gaza, which would be a war crime. Jordan is in a difficult position, given the country’s reliance on U.S. support, which makes up about 10 percent of its national budget. Egypt similarly relies on U.S. assistance. Trump’s cut to foreign assistance includes the $1.45 billion the U.S. sends to Jordan annually (the only countries to which he did not cut assistance were Israel and Egypt). Jordan simply does not have enough resources to take in additional refugees. It has remained a bastion of relative stability despite regional upheaval, due largely to the U.S. and Europe helping pay for Jordan to host refugees. Despite this support, Jordan’s debt is already 90 percent of its GDP. Twenty-two percent of Jordan’s population are unemployed. Jordan’s population is already approximately half Palestinian, due to previous Israeli expulsions of Palestinians in 1948 and 1967. If hundreds of thousands of new Palestinian refugees were forced into Jordan, the fragile status quo would likely collapse. Given the success of the Muslim Brotherhood in September’s parliamentary election, the government most likely to replace it would not be interested in signing another peace treaty with Israel, or be willing to host U.S. troops. When forced to accept political suicide in order to support Trump’s regional agenda, countries like Jordan will increasingly seek other partners. Jordan already does a lot for the U.S. At Washington’s urging, Jordan has maintained a peace treaty with Israel for the past 30 years, despite its deep unpopularity among the Jordanian population. Jordan hosts 15 different U.S. military installations and almost 4000 American troops. (Source: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, an American think tank, located in Washington D.C., U.S.)
by Sheline, PhD, a Research Fellow in the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. She previously served as a Foreign Affairs Officer at the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor’s Office of Near Eastern Affairs, before resigning in March 2024 in protest over the Biden administration’s unconditional support for Israeli military operations in Gaza.

North America

United States
Feb 11, 2025  The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) unanimously elected Soloveichik as its Vice Chair following former Vice Chair Ueland’s departure from the Commission for a federal role.  (Source: USCIRF *, an independent, bipartisan federal government entity established by the U.S. Congress to monitor, analyze, and report on religious freedom abroad).
* USCIRF makes foreign policy recommendations to the President, the Secretary of State, and Congress.

(11 February 2025)  United States President Trump today signed an executive order directing the justice department to pause prosecutions of Americans accused of bribing foreign officials to secure business deals. The law made companies that operate in the US less competitive, the White House said. (Source: Scroll – India)

Tue, 11 Feb, 2025  US President Trump has removed the exceptions and exemptions from his 2018 tariffs on steel, meaning that all steel imports will be taxed at a minimum of 25%. Trump also hiked his 2018 aluminium tariffs to 25% from 10%. His orders go into effect on March 4. “It’s time for our great industries to come back to America,” he said. The tariffs would hit allies as the four biggest sources of steel imports are Canada, Brazil, Mexico and South Korea. (Source: Irish Examiner - Republic of Ireland / Associated Press - U.S.) 

Feb. 11, 2025  "One of the things we can do right away is take 2,000 children that are either cancer children or in very ill state to Jordan as quickly as possible," Abdullah, 63, told the president. President called offer "beautiful gesture". /Source: United Press International (UPI), an American international news agency. Headquarters Boca Raton, Florida, U.S./

11 February, 2025  Trump threatens to cut US-allied Arab country Jordan aid if it refuses to resettle Palestinians as King Abdullah visits Washington today. (Source: The New Arab - a London-based news outlet owned by a Qatari company)

February 11, 2025  US President Trump has left open the possibility that Ukraine "may be Russian someday," and called for trading US aid for Kiev's natural resources, such as rare minerals. "They may make a deal, they may not make a deal. They may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday," Trump said in an interview with Fox News yesterday. (Source: TRT World – Turkey)

Tuesday 11 February 2025  Secretary of State Rubio has appointed Beattie to be the acting undersecretary for public diplomacy and public affairs, a senior role that represents American foreign policy to the world. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

(Tuesday, 11 February 2025)  US President Trump said yesterday that Hamas should release all hostages held by the militant group in Gaza by midday Saturday or he would propose cancelling the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and "let hell break out." (Source: Sunday World – Republic of Ireland)

February 11, 2025  Ethnic cleansing of Gaza and American genetics (Source: Middle East Monitor *, located in London, United Kingdom, financed by the State of Qatar)
* labelled by some commentators as pro-Islamist, pro-Muslim Brotherhood, and pro-Hamas

United Nations

11th February 2025  'Israel has become an institutional obsession of the UN, for both staff and members. During the past decade, the UN General Assembly has adopted 140 resolutions that were highly critical of the Jewish state – that’s double the number of resolutions critical of all the other countries in the world put together. There is little that is implicit or unconscious about the UN’s anti-Israel bias. It is endemic and all-consuming. This is an institution that is rotting from within". (Source: Spiked *, a British Internet magazine. Headquarters London, United Kingdom)
by O’Hallorann, an Irish author, journalist, and broadcaster
* roots in the left‐wing; the majority of sources identify it as right-libertarian

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Europe

Romania
10/02/2025 - 14:32  Outgoing president Iohannis resigned today. His mandate was extended in December after the Constitutional Court cancelled last year's presidential race, plunged the state into institutional chaos, accusing Russia of having interfered in the campaign when little-known ’far-right’ NATO critic Georgescu won the first round of a presidential election and Romania's top court voided the entire election. Accusations of Russian interference were denied by Moscow. With the two rounds of the election set to be re-run on May 4 and May 18, Romania's top court had said Iohannis, whose second and last term expired on December 21, would stay on until his successor was elected. In January, three far-right opposition parties, which control around 35% of parliament seats, filed a motion to impeach the deeply unpopular Iohannis. Senate speaker Bolojan, head of the Liberal Party, a member of the ruling coalition, will take over as interim president with limited powers until the election. The three ’hard-right’ groupings, whose support has risen since Georgescu's surprise win, had used their campaign against Iohannis as a reason to stage protests and seize the political agenda. (Source: France24 / Reuters - United Kingdom)

10.02.2025  President Iohannis announced his resignation today. The move came after opposition’s motion filed in parliament to impeach him. Iohannis’ second and last term expired on Dec. 21, but he was to stay until a successor is elected. The two-round election will now be held on May 4. In December, Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the presidential run-off scheduled for Dec. 8. 'Far-right' Georgescu had won the first round on Nov. 24. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

European Commission
(10 February 2025)  The European Union will conduct a review of its multi-billion euro external aid. The EU and its member states are collectively the biggest donor for international aid in the world, providing nearly €96 billion in 2023, while the US spent nearly $72 billion (€69,852 billion) in foreign support. The Commission will outline ideas in the coming weeks to improve its next seven-year budget from 2028 to 2034 and intends to present its next long-term budget proposal in July. The EU’s trillion-euro-long-term budget will become more difficult this time around as €30 billion in debt from the pandemic recovery fund needs to be paid back annually and a majority of member states also want massive funding for defence. (Source: Luxembourg Times)

European Union
Monday 10/02/2025  Leaders of 'far-right' parties in the European Parliament’s third-largest voting bloc, Patriots for Europe, praised Trump’s return to power at a gathering in Madrid on February 8 held under the slogan “Make Europe Great Again.” Patriots consists of 86 MEPs from 14 countries. Some of the EU’s most influential parties in the camp of nationalist conservatives, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Alternative for Germany and Poland’s Law and Justice, have refused to join. The event featured Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Italian deputy premier Salvini, as well as the leaders of France’s National Rally (RN), Le Pen and the Netherlands’ PVV party Wilders. “The Trump tornado has changed the world in just a few weeks … yesterday we were heretics, today we’re mainstream,” Orbán told around 2,000 supporters, most of whom waved Spanish flags. All the speakers railed against immigration and most called for a new “Reconquista,” a reference to the Medieval re-conquest of Muslim-controlled parts of the Iberian Peninsula by Christian kingdoms. A video message by Venezuelan opposition leader Machado, excoriating what he called “leftists” was interrupted by a topless activist from feminist group Femen before she was ejected. Other themes included frequent right-wing targets such as “wokism,” migrant rescue NGOs, European Commission’s der Leyen and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, whose names were met with loud jeers. Madrid was chosen as venue for their first official summit so that Patriots’ president Abascal, who leads Spain’s Vox party, could host. Vox has steadily gained ground in several polls over the past months. According to the Centre for Sociological Studies (CIS), it garners the strongest support among young men, members of the military and law enforcement. (Source: The Arab Weekly, a publication by Al Arab Publishing House in London. It is printed in three editions: In the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates and The United States.

Kaliningrad
February 10, 2025  The Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea has become an energy island after the Baltics States cut themselves off from the Soviet-era BRELL power grid on February 8 and has become vulnerable to sanctions thanks to its dependence on Lithuanian gas transit. It must generate all its electricity independently, Lithuania is no longer supplying or transferring power. Lithuania continues to transit natural gas to Kaliningrad. In 2023, Lithuania transited 2.3bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas to the exclave. Amongst the measures Russia took to improve Kaliningrad’s energy security were to double its gas-fired power capacity, constructing an €780mn gas storage facility with a capacity of approximately 800mn cubic metres, and acquiring the Marshal Vasilevsky tanker, a $300mn LNG terminal ship. The LNG terminal could supply Kaliningrad’s full gas demand of up to 3.7 bcm per year. LNG is about four and half-times more expensive than the piped gas the enclave currently receives via Lithuania. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Germany)

Russia
10.02.2025  Europe’s position in the modern world is now fundamentally changing. The most important factor in these changes is the relationship between Europeans and their senior partners in America. These relations have become the most important factor in the development of Europe and its position in international politics throughout the 20th century. Now they have become central and determine the nature of the processes and changes taking place there.   The central element of the unequal partnership between the US and Europe is security. The role of the US in relation to the states of Europe has always been limited to two issues. First, containing the restoration of European great power and militarism. Second, using Europe as a territorial base for its confrontation with Russia.    Discussions about the "American security umbrella" are nothing more than a myth - a simplified view for propaganda purposes. The concept of the "American security umbrella" over Europe means artificially limiting the scope of one's intellectual search. There is no “umbrella,” but rather a US protectorate over Europe, established without enthusiasm, but with the support of a segment of the European elite, and leading this region to further degradation. The largest European countries – Great Britain, Germany and France - have gone through a slow but inevitable erosion of their role in world politics in one way or another, to accomplish even the most ill-contrived goals of the USA. Their economic benefits from such a humiliated position are becoming increasingly insignificant. Europe could very well ensure its security and development, but it cannot do so, since it is constantly forced to pursue a suicidal foreign policy.   The very concept of a “security umbrella” is absurd. Since we are far from thinking that a threat to Europe could come from North African countries, China, or the Middle East, 'the only enemy is Russia'. However, it is linked to the United States by a relationship of strategic deterrence, based on the direct and immediate threat of causing unacceptable damage to each other’s territory and population. It is strange to think that the US could ever put its own survival at risk in order to protect Europeans from a massive attack by, say, Russia. Even those who voluntarily transferred a significant part of their sovereign rights to the Americans, as happened with Germany, Italy, Britain or Turkey in the case of the deployment of US nuclear weapons there, these countries sacrificed their sovereignty, but it cannot be said that they received anything convincing in exchange in terms of ensuring their own security, which shows us the degree to which the survival strategy of Berlin, Rome, Ankara or London is subordinated to the interests of the US. Europe, including Turkey, is important for the US as a territory from which they can develop their hostile policy towards Russian interests. But nothing more. Major powers are, in principle, relatively calm about changes in the balance of power between their weaker partners. For them, this is not a factor that directly influences the solution of the most important foreign policy tasks of the state. Such categories as the "security umbrella" can only operate in cases where there is a potential clash with a much weaker adversary that is not capable of seriously threatening the main territory of a great power. This is how Russia's allied relations with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) countries work. If the actions of the ally country are not absurd, then the major power will, of course, come to its aid, as happened at the time of the threat of the collapse of statehood in Kazakhstan in January 2022. Due to the fact that the existence of such a category as the "security umbrella" in the Russia-USA-Europe triangle is impossible even at a theoretical level, the only thing that Europeans get in return is an illusory confidence in the impunity of their own irresponsible behaviour. For now, even the largest European countries behave like the former Soviet Baltic republics. But it is completely unknown what will happen when the strategic interests of the United States no longer require such a serious territorial presence in the western part of Eurasia.    Considering that the rivalry between the United States and China has every chance of becoming a central element of international politics in the coming decades, we are far from thinking that Europe itself is capable of maintaining a state of cold war with Russia. For now, the key factors restraining the normalisation of Europe's behaviour are American pressure and the crisis state of its own elites. Reducing pressure from the United States, which consistently forces Europe to be hostile to Russia, may lead to a fairly rapid change not only in the rhetoric, but also in the practice of European foreign policy. The issue with the elites will be somewhat more complicated: we see what many politicians are like at the national level and, especially, by observing their nominees to the institutions of the European Union. Negative selection, based on incompetence and corrupt relationships with American companies, has produced a generation of politicians who have nothing to do with the interests of their countries. If Europe's only objective foreign policy function – the space for deploying American forces and resources in the event of a conflict with Russia – is reduced, new politicians with a new worldview and professional qualities will be in demand. (Source: The Valdai Discussion Club, a Moscow-based think tank and discussion forum - Russia / Reuters - United Kingdom)
by Bordachev

Europe
(10 February 2025)  European gas prices hit two-year high as supply fears intensify. Gas consumption in Europe is expected to rise by 17% this month from a year ago, driven by residential and commercial demand. Inventories are only 49% full compared with 67% at the same time last year. Northwest Europe is bracing for freezing temperatures in the coming days, which could further boost heating demand. Inventories will be 37% full by the end of winter, is forecasted. Benchmark futures rose as much as 5.4% today to €58.75 a megawatt-hour. That’s the highest since February 2023, after contracts posted four consecutive weeks of gains. Norway’s upcoming summer maintenance season may also cap supplies at a time when the market is already tight. Traders' rushing to snap up protection against surging European gas prices is signalling they expect further disruptions to supplies. (Source: Luxembourg Times / Bloomberg)

North America

United States
February 10, 2025, Monday  Trump adviser advocates for European responsibility in Ukraine’s post-war security. National security adviser Waltz pointed out that President Trump plans to address the Russo-Ukrainian conflict in Europe next week, with the US Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Vice President, and Special Envoy scheduled to discuss plans for peace. Waltz also highlighted that the US is seeking to recover the costs of its military aid to Ukraine, proposing partnerships with Ukraine on natural resources, including rare earths and energy, to offset those expenditures. This partnership would involve Ukraine leveraging its natural resources, oil, and gas, in return for support from the US. Waltz added that the priority was to get all sides to the negotiating table, stating that Russia's economy is struggling and that global leaders, including those from China, India, and the Middle East, are eager to help end the war.US Vice President Vance is scheduled to meet President Zelensky during the Munich Security Conference, which takes place from February 14 to 16. The Munich conference will serve as a platform for discussions on future US strategies for ending the war. Meanwhile, Kellogg, Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, is expected to attend the conference and engage with US allies. Sources have indicated that the Trump administration may present a new plan to resolve the conflict, although Kellogg has denied that a definitive peace plan will be unveiled during the event. (Source: Novinite, a Bulgarian English-language news provider based in Sofia / ’NBC News - U.S.; Ukrainska Pravda - Ukraine; ISW - U.S.; CBS News - U.S.”)

Global

9 February 2025  Transnational repression is a set of physical and digital tactics used by governments to stifle dissent among political exiles or diaspora communities in other countries. Governments perpetrated 160 total incidents of physical transnational repression across 34 countries in 2024, including assassinations, abductions, assaults, detentions, and unlawful deportations. The governments of Uganda, Cambodia, Russia, Iran, and China were the top perpetrators of transnational repression in 2024. Seventy-three incidents from 2024 were mass events involving the simultaneous targeting of three or more people. The largest such incident occurred in Kenya, where 36 Ugandan activists were abducted and returned to Uganda, and charged with “receiving terrorist training” for participating in a civil society workshop. Two other mass incidents took place in Thailand. In February, three Cambodian activists were detained for planning protests in advance of Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet’s first visit to Thailand. In a separate incident in November, six Cambodian activists were deported from Thailand and now face charges of treason in Cambodia for posting comments critical of the country’s authorities on Facebook. Authorities in Turkey and Russia also targeted groups of people with renditions and attempted unlawful deportations. The Chinese Communist Party remains the world’s leading perpetrator of transnational repression and is responsible for 272 recorded physical incidents since 2014. In March, individuals working for the Ministry of State Security tried to kidnap a Chinese dissident and force him onto an international flight at Paris’s Charles de Gaulle Airport. The government of Tajikistan is now among the most aggressive in pursuing dissidents abroad and was responsible for 9 incidents in 2024, and 92 since 2014. In November 2024, German authorities deported Ergashev, an opposition activist who participated in several peaceful protests against the Tajikistani government and has sought asylum in Germany since 2011. He was taken into custody upon landing in Dushanbe and remains in prison. In similar cases, people have been sentenced to decades in prison after being returned to Tajikistan. /Source: International Freedom of Expression Exchange (IFEX) - a global network, based in Toronto, Ontario, Canada/

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Europe

Vatican
Sunday 09 February 2025  Pope Francis reappeared in public for the first time since he was diagnosed with bronchitis on Thursday to celebrate an outdoor Jubilee Mass for the armed forces, police and security personnel from around the world. The Pontiff told that armed force can only be used for legitimate defense and must always respect international law. However, after a few words, he handed off his homily to an aide to read, saying he was having difficulty with his breath. “I would like to recall the teaching of the Church in this regard: The Second Vatican Council says that those who exercise their profession in the ranks of the army in the service of their homeland should consider themselves as servants of the security and freedom of their people,” Francis said in his final prayer. “This armed service must be exercised only for legitimate defense, never to impose dominion over other nations, and always observing international conventions regarding conflicts,” he added. The pontiff launched a new appeal for peace, citing conflicts around the world, including Ukraine, the Middle East, Myanmar and Sudan. “Let the weapons be silenced everywhere and let the cry of the people asking for peace be heard,” Francis said. /Photo/ (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

Asia

China
9 Feb 2025  China has imposed retaliatory tariffs on the US, hitting about $14bn worth of goods. China’s embassy in Washington said the tariffs came into effect at 12.01am Beijing time on Monday (11.01am on Sunday in Washington DC). Beijing last week also announced an antitrust probe into Google, whose search engine is blocked in China, and Illumina, a US biotechnology company. And it blacklisted the holding company of US clothing brands Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger. China underlined its control of the rare earths supply chain by restricting exports to the US of five critical metals used in defence-related industries, solar panels, electric vehicle batteries and other green energy products. China produces about 60 per cent of the world’s rare earths and accounts for 90 per cent of processing in the industry. Trump has accused China, along with Mexico and Canada, of failing to curb the flow of the deadly opioid fentanyl into the US. Beijing has taken some measures to stem the flow of ingredients for fentanyl -  known as precursor chemicals - since a summit in San Francisco in late 2023 involving the then US president Biden and Xi. But the Trump administration accuses Beijing of subsidising Chinese companies that make the precursors. Trump has also instructed the US Trade Representative to investigate Chinese compliance with the first phase of the trade deal he sealed with China in 2020 during his first term in the White House, under which Beijing agreed to buy more American products. The USTR is due to report the findings from the probe on April 1. (Source: Financial Times - headquarters London, England)

North America

February 9, 2025   "If you think the big defense contractors have too much power and too much influence, wait until you dig into the USAID contractors and the subcontractors and the subcontractors and the local contractors," Trump security advisor Waltz said. "The president wants action and that's what he's getting." "Many of these senior aid officials have their own agenda, have gone their own direction, and these programs - many of which are no longer authorized by Congress -  just seemed to continue in perpetuity. So, we can talk the entire time about USAID." "I have a lot of experience about it on the ground, but in these first two weeks, we've had major foreign leaders. We have the Mexicans putting thousands of their troops on the border. The Canadians putting their assets on the border. Panama moving away from Belt and Road. Colombia first refusing to take deportation and then now taking it -  and we can go on and on, with the successes of the hostages that the previous administration couldn't get out. President Trump says, 'There's all hell to pay,' and now we have, not only hostages from Hamas reuniting from their family, from Venezuela and from the Taliban, too. So, we've had an amazing two weeks. We can get into the details of foreign assistance, but it badly needs reformed." /Video/ (Source: YouTube / NBC = U.S.)
283 views

(Sunday), Feb 9, 2025  US President Trump said he expects Musk to find billions of dollars of fraud and abuse at the Pentagon during an audit that the billionaire will lead. "I'm going to tell him very soon, like maybe in 24 hours, to go check the Department of Education. Then I'm going to go, go to the military. Let's check the military," Trump said in an interview with Fox News' aired today morning. "We're going to find billions, hundreds of millions of dollars of fraud and abuse," Trump said of the largest federal department. In December, then-President Biden signed a bill authorising USD 895 billion in defence spending for the fiscal year ending September 30. Leaders from across the political spectrum have long criticised waste and inefficiency at the Pentagon. Musk, who the White House says is a special government employee, has been tasked by Trump to lead an effort to slash the size of the US federal workforce. As part of that initiative, Musk aides have sought access to confidential information in computer systems at various government agencies. National Security Adviser Waltz suggested in a separate interview today that the Pentagon's shipbuilding processes could be an area of particular interest for the Department of Government Efficiency, and he characterised the Pentagon in general as full of unnecessary bloat. "Everything there seems to cost too much, take too long and deliver too little to the soldiers... We do need business leaders to go in there and absolutely reform the Pentagon's acquisition process," Waltz said. (Source: India Today)

Feb 09, 2025  Musk has alleged massive fraud in the United States Treasury's entitlement payments - over $100 billion per year is paid to people without a Social Security Number or temporary ID number. He further alleged Treasury insiders estimated half of these payments, or roughly $50 billion/year, could be "unequivocal and obvious fraud." "Nobody in treasury management cared enough before," Musk posted on X. The working-level people in treasury have wanted to do this for many years but have been stopped by prior management, he added. US District Judge Engelmayer temporarily barred the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) from accessing sensitive Treasury data. A lawsuit from 19 Democratic state attorneys general claim granting DOGE full access to the Treasury's payment systems violates federal laws protecting sensitive information. Musk emphasized an agreement between DOGE and the Treasury to enhance financial oversight by mandating payment categorization codes for audits. He said many transactions currently don't have such coding, making audits difficult. Musk also urged for mandatory documentation of payment rationales in Treasury records. On the security side, he pushed for stricter enforcement of the "Do-Not-Pay" list to prevent fraudulent payments and said it should be updated weekly/daily. (Source: NewsBytes – India)

United States
(February 9, 2025)  Trump says he has spoken to Putin by phone about ending  the war in Ukraine. (Source: RNZ - New Zealand / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Oceania

Cook Islands
(Sunday, February 9, 2025)  New Zealand's Foreign Minister's office says Cook Islands prime minister Mark Brown headed to Beijing today without "properly consulting" New Zealand about agreements he plans to sign with China. The Cook Islands operates in free association with New Zealand. It means the island nation conducts its own affairs, but Aotearoa needs to assist when it comes to foreign affairs, disasters, and defence. There had always been natural tensions between Aotearoa and the Cook Islands over free association independence. New Zealand is asking for more consultation over what is in the China deal. Foreign Minister Peters said neither New Zealand nor the Cook Island people knew what was in the agreement. Today, a spokesperson from the Foreign Minister's office said the lack of consultation in particular was a matter of significant concern to the New Zealand government. "Cook Islanders are treasured members of the New Zealand family. The Deputy Prime Minister will continue to defend and protect the interests of Cook Islanders, in the context of New Zealand protecting the security and prosperity of all New Zealand citizens and of the Realm of New Zealand." (Source: RNZ - New Zealand)

Samoa
09 February 2025  Miss Samoa Ieremia-Allan as the new Queen of the Pacific. Samoa triumphs with ninth Miss Pacific title at the 38th Miss Pacific Islands pageant, held in Honiara, Solomon Islands. /Photo/ (Source: Samoa Observer)

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Europe

Russia
February 08, 2025  Putin has dismissed the head of Roscosmos, after serving for two-and-half years. Borisov, who was put in charge of the space agency in July 2022, has been replaced by the former deputy transportation minister, Bakanov, who led the state-backed Gonets satellite communications system between 2011 and 2019. Russian space expert Yegorov told that Borisov had stopped the collapse of the country's space sector which had been hit hard by sanctions. Telegram channel Cheka OGPU, which is linked to Russian security agencies and often reports government insider sources, said that Putin had been angered at the problems. In August 2023, Borisov presided over the failure of Luna 25, the first moon mission in modern Russian history. In September (21), 2024, satellite imagery appeared to show a launch failure of an RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia. The missile is central to Putin's plans to modernize Moscow's nuclear arsenal. Business news outlet RBC reported how the change in Roscosmos's leadership comes amid uncertainty over the construction of the National Space Center in Moscow - Bakanov will audit the agency and that his main priority will be developing Russia's Sphere satellite program. (Source: Miami Herald / Newsweek = U.S.)

United Kingdom
8 February 2025  China wants to turn 20,000 sq metres of land at the historic Royal Mint Court which it bought in 2018 into a ‘mega-embassy’ in the heart of the capital, right near the Tower of London. If China builds its embassy on the site, it would become the largest embassy in Europe - but it still hasn’t secured permission from the UK to go ahead. Protesters spilled across the pedestrian crossings on Tower Bridge Road holding signs that said "CCP is watching you, Stop the mega embassy" and "Space for free speech". The rally, organised by local residents and attended by groups of Uyghurs, Tibetans, Chinese dissidents and Hong Kongers, started today morning and quickly attracted thousands of protesters. (Source: LBC - United Kingdom)

8 February 2025  There are serious questions about how to handle a US president who is ’openly hostile to the postwar international order’, dismissive of international institutions, and openly says the EU is worse than China, and Nato is a scam. ’The US has been the guarantor of our security’, the protective shield concealing European frailties and inadequacies. The moment has now arrived where Europe must look after itself. ’The most controversial policy’ of Trump’s second term may turn out to be his proposed mass expulsion of 10.5 million undocumented migrants.    But the policies which will impact most on the UK and Europe are likely to be around tariffs, Ukraine, Nato and the Middle East.   Tariffs are Trump’s preferred instrument of coercion and were always bound to be deployed early on. Next, Trump will take action against the EU because “they treat us very unfairly”. This is already prompting retaliatory tariffs, threatening a trade war which damages everyone. The likelihood is that this will result in reduced global economic growth, job losses, higher inflation and disrupted supply chains. Can the UK avoid this tariff carnage? Trump has said “the UK is out of line” but “Starmer has been very nice” and something “can be worked out”. Unlike Germany, with its huge surplus, our trade is in rough balance with the US and we buy billions of dollars of US military equipment, from F-35s to Apache helicopters. So, damage the UK economy and there’ll be less money to spend on defence. Even if the UK manages to escape tariffs, trade wars with others will hurt our economy significantly. The threat of US tariffs will hang over us for the next four years. When Trump says “we can work something out”, he means there will be a price to pay; perhaps the UK opening its markets to US agricultural exports – a disaster-in-waiting for British farmers.   On Ukraine, Trump has unsurprisingly stepped back from his claims of an instant ceasefire. But it’s hard to see why Putin should do any deal that doesn’t amount to Ukrainian capitulation. He must think that Russia is now winning this war. ’It is hard to see Zelensky accepting a deal that gives territory over to Russia and stops them from joining Nato’. If a ceasefire is within grasp, ’Trump will expect Europe, not the US, to provide any security guarantees needed to get Ukraine over the line’. Regardless, all scenarios look exceptionally difficult for the Europeans.    As for Nato, Trump has criticised Nato allies for falling short of their commitments on defence spending. Trump can take a victory lap in the first Nato summit of his second term: 23 of Nato’s 32 members are now at two per cent of GDP. But to think that this is problem solved is to misread Trump. It’s not just about the money: Trump fundamentally disagrees with the Article 5 commitment to collective defence – something Moscow will have noticed.    Finally, the Middle East. It’s a mixed picture. Trump’s pre-inauguration urging of Benjamin Netanyahu to commit to an immediate Gaza ceasefire was pivotal – without it, the fighting might still be happening. But to now suggest that Gazans should be forced to leave the territory is seriously destabilising and risks more extremism and conflict.    The certainties of the postwar decades have gone. 'The United States is not the ally it was'. Europe must be able to do more for itself. (Source: Politics Home - based in London, United Kingdom. It is the sister outlet of The House magazine, published weekly when Parliament is sitting)
by Lord Darroch, crossbench peer and former UK ambassador to the US

Africa

South Africa
Saturday, February 8, 2025  Groups representing some of South Africa’s white minority responded today to a plan by President Trump to offer them refugee status and resettlement in the United States by saying: thanks, but no thanks. The Trump administration accused the South African government of allowing violent attacks on white Afrikaner farmers and introducing a land expropriation law that enables it to “seize ethnic minority Afrikaners’ agricultural property without compensation.” Together, whites make up around 7% of South Africa’s population of 62 million. “Our members work here, and want to stay here, and they are going to stay here,” said Hermann, chief executive of the Afrikaner trade union Solidarity, which says it represents around 2 million people. “We are committed to build a future here. We are not going anywhere.” Solidarity, AfriForum and others are strongly opposed to the new land expropriation law, saying it will target land owned by whites who have worked to develop that land for years. They also say an equally contentious language law that’s recently been passed seeks to remove or limit their Afrikaans language in schools, while they have often criticized South Africa’s affirmative action policies in business that promote the interests of Blacks as racist laws. “This government is allowing a certain section of the population to be targeted,' said AfriForum’s Kriel, who thanked Trump for raising the case of Afrikaners. (Source: The Washington Times / The Associated Press = U.S.)

Central America

Panama
08.02.2025  China protests: the Central American nation announced its formal withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative. Panama's withdrawal from the BRI was officially confirmed by President Mulino. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

North America

Canada
Feb 08, 2025  A meeting was convened as Canada braces for the potential impact of Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on all Canadian imports. “I suggest that not only does the Trump administration know how many critical minerals we have but that may be even why they keep talking about absorbing us and making us the 51st state,” outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reportedly told attendees. “They’re very aware of our resources, of what we have and they very much want to be able to benefit from those,” he added. Canada holds significant reserves of essential minerals crucial for the green energy sector, including lithium, graphite, nickel, copper, and cobalt. Trump first proposed the idea of absorbing Canada at a dinner with Trudeau in December. A January Ipsos poll shows that the majority of Canadians (80%) oppose their country becoming part of the US and would never vote ‘yes’. (Source: Hindustan Times - India)

United States
8 February 2025  Defense Secretary Hegseth yesterday criticized past celebrations of diversity within the U.S. military and pledged a more stringent approach to NATO burden-sharing and accountability for the war in Afghanistan. “I think the single dumbest phrase in military history is ‘our diversity is our strength,’” Hegseth said during a speech to Pentagon staff, addressing an audience of several hundred in the Pentagon auditorium. “Under my watch, we will treat everyone with fairness.” Hegseth has moved swiftly to dismantle diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives at the Defense Department, arguing that such programs are divisive. He cited the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel as events that, in his view, have eroded perceptions of American strength. “Over the last couple of years, we’ve seen events that created the perception - reality or perception, but I would argue more perception - of American weakness,” Hegseth said. “Chaos happens when the perception of American strength is not complete. ’And so we aim to reestablish that deterrence.’ Hegseth said he would travel next week to a NATO meeting in Brussels, where he planned to urge allied nations to increase military spending and expand their industrial bases. He also pledged an inquiry into the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. “We are going to look back at what happened in Afghanistan and hold people accountable - not to be retrospective, not for retribution, but to understand what went wrong and why there was no accountability for it,” he said. Hegseth suggested that the Trump administration would seek to restore deterrence by focusing on securing the U.S.-Mexico border. He also pledged that “at a bare minimum,” the Pentagon would pass a full financial audit by the end of a second Trump term in early 2029. Since taking office, Hegseth has also eliminated commemorations of heritage months, including Black History Month and Women’s History Month, issuing guidance that such observances “erode camaraderie and threaten mission execution.” DEI programs were intended to promote opportunities for women, racial minorities, and other historically underrepresented groups. Conservatives have criticized such initiatives, contending they prioritize identity over merit. (Source: Amu TV, a satellite television channel with the primary mission to inform Afghan society. Headquarters: Virginia, U.S.)

08.02.2025 US  President Trump cuts US aid to South Africa citing land seizures, International Court of Justice case against Israel. The order also includes a provision for assisting "Afrikaner refugees escaping government-sponsored race-based discrimination." The US allocated nearly $440 million in aid to South Africa in 2023, according to government data. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

February 08, 2025  The United States yesterday announced the approval of the sale of more than $7.4 billion in bombs, missiles and related equipment to Israel, which has used American-made weapons to devastating effect during the war in Gaza. (Source: Voice of America - U.S.)

Feb 8, 2025  United States President Trump has announced that he is revoking former President Biden’s access to intelligence briefings. “He set this precedent in 2021, when he instructed the Intelligence Community (IC) to stop the 45th President of the United States (ME!) from accessing details on National Security, a courtesy provided to former Presidents,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. Trump also suggested that Biden could not be trusted with sensitive information after special counsel Hur’s report on his predecessor’s handling of classified information described the Democrat’s memory as 'fuzzy' and having “significant limitations”. (Source: MEHR News Agency - Iran)

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Europe

Poland
7 February 2025  On February 5, during an interview with internet channel Kanał Zero, Poland’s President Duda, an ally of the opposition Conservatives (PiS), has said he was concerned that European Union institutions may interfere in the country’s May presidential election based on the experience of events in Romania. Brussels “does not like Conservatives ruling in Poland”, he said, adding that the current centre-left government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk might overrule the result of the election should the PiS win. Events in Romania “have worried me a lot and I have many doubts” about them, the President said. In December 2024, Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the first round of the election the previous month that had been unexpectedly won by a ’right-wing’ candidate Georgescu. The court claimed it did so based on 'evidence' of Russian interference. Duda claimed Brussels interfered in Romania’s recent presidential election. ’Prominent members of the European Commission have admitted they interfered in the Romanian case’. The President may have been referring to the remarks made by ex-commissioner Breton who had said in a media interview that the cancellation of the Romania ballot was done with involvement of Brussels. Duda asked whether “today’s elections in individual countries can only be won by those accepted in Brussels?' adding: “I have this impression and I don’t like it very much.” The President argued that the European Commission had form in interfering in Polish elections, too. He cited the fact that the body blocked EU pandemic funding for the former PiS government and unblocked them immediately on the election of the centre-left government led by Tusk in 2023. Duda called the actions of the commission with regard to Poland political manipulation, involving “blocking funds because the government was not liked by the EC”. He said that was because of its different approach to many issues such as environmental protection, migration and the rule of law. Poland’s head of state also said he feared interference of the Romanian variety should the Polish result go against the present government’s main candidate, Warsaw mayor Trzaskowski. He claimed he feared the way the government was refusing to recognise the Supervisory Chamber of the Supreme Court, charged with certifying the election result, could be the precursor of a decision by parliament to refuse to recognise the outcome on the grounds that no “appropriate” judicial body had certified the poll. The first round of the Polish presidential election is due to take place on May 18, with the second round set for June 1. Duda’s second and final term as president expires in early August. (Source: Brussels Signal, published by Remedia Europe SRL, Brussels)

Russia
7 February 2025  The General Prosecutor's office today morning announced that the journalist-owned Barents Observer newspaper, media based in northern Norway is added to Russia's list of so-called 'undesirable organisations.' ’A significant part of the newspaper's materials have a clearly expressed anti-Russian character.’ ’The articles are aimed at stimulating protest motions among the population in north Russian regions, tighten anti-Russian sanctions [and] boosting NATO's military presence by our borders,’ the Russian state authority writes. The Barents Observer are ’discrediting the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation,’ the notice reads. The newspaper's journalists are propagating ’untraditional values,’ the General Prosecutor argues. It also underlines that the editorial staff of the Barents Observer includes Russian journalists in exile, among them people who are on Russia's so-called 'foreign agent' list and the list of ’extremists and terrorists.’ Yesterday the small Norwegian newspaper won a court case in the European Court of Human Rights against Russia's censorship agency Roskomnadzor. (Source: The Barents Observer, based in Kirkenes, Norway)

United Kingdom
2/7/2025  Security officials in the United Kingdom have demanded that Apple create a back door allowing them to retrieve all the content any Apple user worldwide has uploaded to the cloud. The British government’s undisclosed order, issued last month, requires blanket capability to view fully encrypted material, not merely assistance in cracking a specific account, and has no known precedent in major democracies. Its application would mark a significant defeat for tech companies in their decades-long battle to avoid being wielded as government tools against their users. The office of the Home Secretary has served Apple with a document called a technical capability notice, ordering it to provide access under the sweeping U.K. Investigatory Powers Act of 2016, which authorizes law enforcement to compel assistance from companies when needed to collect evidence. The law, known by critics as the Snoopers’ Charter, makes it a criminal offense to reveal that the government has even made such a demand. A consultant advising the United States on encryption matters deemed it shocking that the U.K. government was demanding Apple’s help to spy on non-British users without their governments’ knowledge. A former White House security adviser confirmed the existence of the British order. At issue is cloud storage that only the user, not Apple, can unlock. Apple started rolling out the option, which it calls Advanced Data Protection, in 2022. The service is an available security option for Apple users in the United States and elsewhere. (Source: MSN / The Washington Post = U.S.)

North America

United States
February 7, 2025  The decision by U.S. President Trump to freeze for 90 days the aid provided by Washington poses new challenges to rights groups in Russia and Belarus. The aid came directly from or via the partners of the U.S. Agency for International Development, ’as well as from other entities funded by the U.S. government’. 'Organizations could have done much more significant things if it weren’t for this situation', an activist with Center-T, a prominent Russian trans group, told. Center-T’s core staff moved abroad after the Russian Supreme Court designated what it called the LGBTQ+ movement as extremist, outlawing all LGBTQ+ activism. Center-T lost ’only a fraction’ of funding, because they ’almost didn’t have U.S. funding,’ its staffer said. Members of Russian and Belarusian rights groups and independent media organizations described varying effects of the action. Some said they don't know which of their partners are linked to U.S. aid and whether more will withdraw support. Many get funding elsewhere, like private donations. Some Russian organizations said they'll still operate but knew of others in bigger jeopardy. OVD-Info, a Russian rights group that tracks political arrests and offers legal aid, is largely funded by “private donations from a large number of people,” so the freeze “has little direct and immediate impact,” said OVD-Info spokesman Anisimov, but 'other groups that help it with certain activities' are affected. An editor of an independent Russian news outlet operating in exile cited ’crowdfunding’ as one reliable revenue sources. The outlet lost less than 10% of the budget in frozen grants. Kovcheg - Russian for “arc” - a group helping Russians fleeing abroad with shelter, legal and psychological support, training and other support, lost 30% of its budget, said its founder, Burakova. Kovcheg is more or less stable, thanks to crowdfunding and advertising, Burakova added. She formerly headed a legal aid group in St. Petersburg backed by exiled tycoon-turned-opposition-figure Khodorkovsky. Most Russian rights groups and independent news outlets have been designated as foreign agents by the Russian authorities - a label that turns potential donors away with its negative connotation. Russia has banned advertising with them. Others have also been labeled undesirable, a category that outlaws any dealings with groups so designated, exposing donors to prosecution. In light of the aid freeze, Khodorkovsky and Russian philanthropist Zimin this week offered $600,000 'to affected Russian and Ukrainian' projects. It's not clear how much U.S. aid Russian organizations were receiving. The U.S. Embassy in Moscow said it was unable to comment. Pro-democracy forces from Belarus were receiving about $30 million U.S. aid, for over half of all of their Western funding, they told. It comes from both USAID, either directly or through 'partners, entities like the U.S.-government funded National Endowment for Democracy'. Dozens of nongovernmental organizations and several independent media groups are on the brink of closure, they said. ’Opposition leaders recently prepared a report for Western governments’, outlining the effects of the freeze - Belarus and Russia will likely fill the void by strengthening state propaganda and authoritarian control in Belarus. Out of 30 Belarusian media groups working abroad, six said they lost funding completely and are on the brink of closing. ’According to the opposition's report, $1.7 million in U.S. aid is frozen' – more than half of all foreign aid to independent media forced to flee Belarus’ after President Lukashenko unleashed a widespread crackdown on dissent in 2020. Now, small independent newsrooms are laying off employees. Dozens of media projects will inevitably cease. Resuming later is almost impossible. A YouTube show, A Regular Morning, with videos regularly drawing over 100,000 views, said it was shutting down but asked for donations and said it would keep going through March. Rights groups also are affected. 60-80 groups face possible mass layoffs, ending programs or closing for good. Programs to support political prisoners will be drastically cut, Belarusian youth will lose access to alternative educational programs, and activists will lose their platforms. There are over 1,200 political prisoners in Belarus. Viasna is the country’s leading human rights group, whose imprisoned founder Bialiatski won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022. Thousands of activists, including some freed from prison, have moved abroad. ’Groups that received U.S. funding were helping them and their families”. Tsikhanouskaya, the exiled activist is urgently looking for ways to keep afloat the ’independent media and the civil society’ of Belarus, Viačorka, a senior aide to opposition leader told. There was no immediate response to a request for comment from the State Department’s European and Eurasian Bureau. (Source: ABC News – Australia /Associated Press – U.S.)

February 7, 2025  President Trump hosted Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba at the White House today and said the U.S. will have relations with North Korea, with Kim. (Source: Fox News – United States)

07 February, 2025  Trump sanctions the International Criminal Court (ICC) due to its issuing of arrest warrants for Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 'Illegitimate Israel, US investigations' - referring to ICC probes into alleged war crimes by US service members in Afghanistan and Israeli troops in Gaza. He ordered asset freezes and travel bans against ICC officials, employees and their family members, along with anyone deemed to have helped the court's investigations. Neither the United States nor Israel are members of the court. (Source: The New Arab - Headquartered London, United Kingdom, owned by a Qatari company)

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Europe

Russia
February 6, 2025  Russian musician Stroykin, 58, was accused of donating money to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He potentially faced 20 years in prison if convicted of supporting the Ukrainian army, which is considered a terrorist organisation in Russia. Stroykin reportedly threw himself out of a 10th story window in St.Petersburg moments after police raided his home. Russian Telegram channels with links to the Kremlin reported his death, and said that, during the police raid on his house, Stroykin ‘went into a spare room, hastily opened a window and committed an irreversible act’. (Source: Metro - United Kingdom)

Asia

China
Feb 06, 2025  Today China has named combative diplomat and ex-ambassador to France, Mr Lu, 60, as Special Representative for European Affairs. He was making frequent combative statements during his five-year tenure as Beijing's envoy to Paris, which ended in December. Mr Lu will promote dialogue and cooperation with Europe and "contribute to the stable and healthy development of China-EU relations", ministry spokesperson Guo told. During the Covid-19 pandemic, he publicly called French analyst Bondaz a "crazed hyena" and "little rascal", while his embassy published an article falsely claiming that French nursing home staff abandoned patients to die of the coronavirus. In 2022, Mr Lu suggested during a television interview that Taiwanese people would undergo re-education after China takes over the democratic self-ruled island, which Beijing claims as its own. His 2023 claim that ex-Soviet states had no effective status in international law, angered numerous European Union member states. So far, there has been no sign of Mr Lu being publicly disciplined by Beijing for his remarks. Mr Lu’s appointment comes when China-Europe relations are at an inflection point, after US President Trump slapped 10 per cent tariffs on China and threatened tariffs on Europe last week as part of his 'isolationist' agenda. China hawks such as European Commission President Der Leyen are showing signs of willingness to rethink the relationship between Beijing and Brussels, a bond that had badly deteriorated over trade tensions and China's ties with Russia. In response, China's foreign ministry yesterday said it is willing to work with Brussels to respond to global challenges after Dr Der Leyen said on Feb 4 at Davos that both sides should find solutions of mutual interest - a marked shift in tone on China. Previously China's embassy in Paris said that Mr Lu’s comments on ex-Soviet states were "an expression of personal views", while the foreign ministry later distanced itself by saying that China respects the sovereign status of all ex-Soviet countries. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore)

Israel
February 6, 2025  Israel’s defence minister ordered the army today to prepare a plan to allow the “voluntary departure” of residents from Gaza, Israeli media said. The instruction followed Trump’s announcement that the United States plans to take over Gaza, resettle the Palestinians living there and transform the territory into the “Riviera of the Middle East”. “Gaza residents should be allowed the freedom to leave and emigrate, as is the norm around the world,” Israel’s Channel 12 quoted Katz as saying. When asked who will take in the Palestinians, Israeli Defence Minister Katz said it should be countries who have opposed Israel’s military operations in Gaza. “Countries like Spain, Ireland, Norway, and others, which have levelled accusations and false claims against Israel over its actions in Gaza, are legally obligated to allow any Gaza resident to enter their territories,” he said. “Their hypocrisy will be exposed if they refuse to do so. There are countries like Canada, which has a structured immigration program, that have previously expressed a willingness to accept Gaza residents.” Since Jan. 25, Trump has repeatedly suggested that Palestinians in Gaza should be taken in by regional Arab nations such as Egypt and Jordan, an idea rejected by both the Arab states and Palestinian leaders. He has given no specifics of his proposal to take over Gaza. (Source: Business Recorder – Headquarters Karachi, Pakistan / Reuters - United ingdom)

February 06, 2025  Israel’s defence minister Katz says he has instructed the army to prepare plans for large numbers of Palestinians to leave the Gaza Strip in line with President Donald Trump’s proposal. The plan “will include options for exit at land crossings as well as special arrangements for exit by sea and air”. Mr Gatz did not say whether Palestinians would be able to one day return to Gaza. US officials later said the relocation would only be temporary. Palestinians fear Israel would never allow them to return. US Secretary of State Rubio, on his first foreign trip as secretary of state, described Mr Trump’s proposal as a “very generous” offer to help with debris removal and reconstruction of the enclave following 15 months of fighting between Israel and Hamas. “In the interim, obviously people are going to have to live somewhere while you’re rebuilding it,” Mr Rubio said. “The president has made it clear that they need to be temporarily relocated out of Gaza,” White House press secretary Leavitt said, calling it currently “an uninhabitable place for human beings” and saying it would be “evil to suggest that people should live in such dire conditions”. Their comments contradicted Mr Trump, who earlier in the week had said: “If we can get a beautiful area to resettle people, permanently, in nice homes where they can be happy and not be shot and not be killed and not be knifed to death like what’s happening in Gaza.” He added that he envisioned “long-term” US ownership of a redevelopment of the territory, which sits along the Mediterranean Sea. In a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Pentagon yesterday, Defence Secretary Hegseth said the military is “prepared to look at all options” for rebuilding Gaza. “We look forward to working with our allies, our counterparts, both diplomatically and militarily, to look at all options,” Mr Hegseth said. Mr Netanyahu also reiterated his praise for Trump: “It’s a remarkable idea and I think it should be really pursued. Examined, pursued and done, because I think it will create a different future for everyone.” (Source: Irish News / Associated Press - Ireland)

Kashmir
Feb 6, 2025  Hamas representatives get VIP welcome in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir /Video/ (Source: India Today)

West Bank
February 6, 2025  The Palestinian Health Ministry reported that at least 70 people have been killed by Israeli forces in the West Bank since the beginning of the year, including 10 children. The Israeli army’s ongoing assault on the occupied West Bank has displaced at least 26,000 Palestinians from their homes in the Jenin and Tulkarm refugee camps since last month. (Source: Days of Palestine - ?)

North America

United States
February 5, 2025 The Catholic Relief Services (CRS) lays off staff, bracing for massive cuts programs - as much as 50% this year - after reductions in U.S. foreign assistance ordered by the Trump administration. CRS is the top recipient of funds from the U.S. Agency for International Development, known as USAID, which supplies about half of the Catholic organization's $1.5 billion budget. CRS received $4.6 billion in funding from USAID over a nine-year period (2013-2022 fiscal years), primarily for disaster assistance. In fiscal year 2023, per a 2024 audit, $521 million - came from U.S. government grants and agreements. CRS reaches more than 200 million people in 121 countries on five continents, according to its website. "We anticipate that we will be a much smaller overall organization by the end of this fiscal year," Callahan, president and CEO of CRS wrote. CRS received $493 million in donated non-financial assets (e.g., agricultural commodities, bed nets, pharmaceuticals, non-food items) at no cost from the U.S. government along with other partners like United Nations World Food Program and The Global Fund. CRS received $284 million in private support through donations, foundations and other means. It has already received notifications that some projects for which it is subrecipient have already been terminated and that more are coming. "It is not a thoughtful or humane way to go about treating programs that help the poorest of the poor all over the world," said Colecchi, director of the Office of International Justice and Peace for the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops from 2004 to 2018. In fiscal year 2024, USAID received more than $44 billion, which accounted for 0.4% of the entire federal budget, according to USAspending.gov. Church and faith-based organizations received less than 6% of USAID funding for nonprofit organizations, with more than half of those funds going to Catholic Relief Services, according to the Congressional Research Service. "A blanket freeze, even for a short period of time, means staff will have to be let go, programs will get interrupted and supply chains will be disrupted," Colecchi added. Among the programs and services provided by CRS: water and sanitation, education, agriculture, health, microfinancing, climate change resilience, as well as justice and peace-building programs in addition to emergency and disaster assistance. CRS had 7,000 employees worldwide as of 2018 when it marked its 75th anniversary. (Source: National Catholic Reporter, a progressive national newspaper based in Kansas City, Missouri, U.S.. NCR 'operates outside the authority of the Catholic Church')

February 6, 2025  The government had been paying news media outlets to generate positive coverage of Democrats, President Trump said on his Truth Social site. White House press secretary, Leavitt, yesterday was saying that more than $8 million had gone to buying Politico subscriptions. “The DOGE team is working on canceling those payments now,” she said. “We are going line by line when it comes to the federal government’s books.” Musk, the head of the team seeking to cut government spending, said yesterday that the payments were “not an efficient use of taxpayer funds.” Mr. Musk was responding to a user who noted a $517,855 payment in 2020 from the Food and Drug Administration for Politico Pro subscriptions. “This wasteful expenditure will be deleted,” he added. Mr Trump questioned if The New York Times and other outlets had also received payments as Politico, a “left wing rag”.“ „Billions of dollars” from U.S.A.I.D. and other agencies had improperly gone to the “fake news media.” In his all-caps post today, Mr. Trump wrote that this could be the biggest scandal of them all. (Source: Dnyuz – Armenia (?) / New York Times – U.S.)

06 February, 2025  US Republican lawmakers in both the House and Senate have introduced bills to prohibit using the term "West Bank" in official US government documents, replacing it with "Judea and Samaria," to legitimise Israeli terminology in US politics. (Source: The New Arab - Headquarters London, United Kingdom. Owned by a Qatari company)

Feb 06, 2025  Yesterday United States Secretary of State Rubio has decided to skip the upcoming Group of 20 (G20) summit in South Africa. Rubio has publicly criticized South Africa for "expropriating private property" and promoting "solidarity, equality, & sustainability." He equated these concepts with diversity, equity, inclusion (DEI), and climate change initiatives. In a post on X , Rubio stated that his role is to "advance America's national interests," not waste taxpayer money or "coddle anti-Americanism." (Source: Newsbytes News Network - U.S.)

(Thursday), Feb. 6, 2025  'Last Thursday', Trump gathered his “whole confirmed team” of advisers and cabinet members focused on national security - from Vice President Vance to Treasury Secretary Bessent - in the Oval Office, where US envoy to Ukraine Kellogg said they discussed how to use all elements of national power to end the war. “We got the national security team talking about it - the president, vice president, national security adviser, secretaries of State [and] Treasury, National Security Council, working all together.” Sanctions enforcement on Russia are “only about a three” on a scale of one to 10 on how painful the economic pressure can be, Kellogg said. The US sanctions themselves - such as those targeting Russia’s lucrative energy sector - are nominally twice as high, but there is still room to ratchet them up. He lambasted former President Biden’s strategy of promising to provide Ukraine aid 'as long as it takes, as much as it takes' without cranking up the pressure on other elements of national power. “If you look at history, you’d never want to get into an attrition fight with the Russians, because that’s how they fight. They’re used to it. I mean, this is a country that was willing to lose - and did - 700,000 in the Battle of Stalingrad in six months, and they didn’t blink an eye.” “And so the pressure just can’t be military. You have to put economic pressure, you have to put diplomatic pressure, some type of military pressures and levers that you’re going to use underneath those to make sure [this goes] where we want it to go,” he explained. (Source: The New York Post - U.S.)

Oceania

Papua New Guinea
2025.02.06 Papua New Guinea farewells one of its founding fathers, former PM Sir Julius Chan (29 August 1939 – 30 January 2025)
/Photo/ (Source: BenarNews, an online news service affiliated with Radio Free Asia, which headquarters in Washington D.C., U.S.)

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Europe

Baltics
February 05 2025  Baltic states Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are to disconnect from the Russian power grid at 07:00 GMT on Feb. 8. After, the three countries will operate in so-called "isolated mode" for about 24 hours to test their frequency, or power levels. The states join the western European power grid via Poland. A total of 1.6 billion euros ($1.7 billion) has been invested in the synchronization project across the Baltic states and Poland. Sales of generators have shot up in Estonia as some consumers worry about power cuts. (Source: Hurriyet Daily News - Turkey)

Bulgaria
(5 February 2025)  Bulgaria’s President Radev criticised the bloc’s leaders for encouraging Kyiv’s counteroffensive against Russia. “Why, instead of building solid defense lines to preserve its potential and territory, was Ukraine encouraged by many leaders to launch a counteroffensive with the utopian assurance of defeating Russia?” asked Radev at a conference in the Bulgarian capital, calling for leaders to “take responsibility” for the outcome. The president is the most popular political figure in Bulgaria, which has been led by a series of unstable governments in recent years. Radev has repeatedly called for a quick ceasefire and opposed providing weaponry to Ukraine and won two consecutive elections since 2016. “Why have we been constantly convinced that the collapse of the Russian economy is in a matter of months?” he asked, pointing to Ukraine’s loss of manpower and Europe’s lagging competitiveness as reasons for pessimism. Europe should insist on a “visible place” at the negotiating table in potential peace talks over Ukraine. It is time for the bloc’s leaders to “switch off the autopilot and take control” into their own hands, said Radev, a US-trained former air force commander. (Source: Luxembourg Times / Bloomberg – U.S.)

France
5 February 2025  Support for the two-state solution. France reiterates its opposition to any forced displacement of Gaza’s Palestinian population, France will continue to express its opposition to settlement activity – which is contrary to international law – and to any hint of the unilateral annexation of the West Bank. (Source: Le ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères - France)

European Commission
5 February 2025  Around 70% of Europeans regularly shop online, including on non-EU e-commerce platforms. In 2024, around 4.6 billion low-value consignments (worth €150 or less) entered the EU market. Many of these products were non-compliant with EU laws, raising concerns over harmful products entering the EU, unfair competition for compliant EU sellers, and the environmental impact of mass shipping. The Commission has proposed actions for safe and sustainable e-commerce: Customs reform; Reinforcing measures for imported goods; Protecting consumers on online marketplaces; Using digital tools; Enhancing environmental measures: Raising awareness; Boosting international cooperation and trade. The new initiatives aim to balance consumer protection, fair competition, and sustainability, while fostering a safe and high-quality e-commerce market in the EU. Within a year, the Commission will evaluate the effectiveness of these actions and may propose further measures if necessary. (Source: European Commission - Headquarters Brussels, Belgium)

European Union
05/02/2025  The EU's military mobility budget funded 95 projects in 21 member states and the EU allocated the entire €1.7 billion budget for the 2021-27 period by the end of 2023. The Commission has identified four military mobility corridors across the EU. (Source: Euronews - Headquarters Lyon, France)

(5 February 2025)  The EU is planning to hit Silicon Valley with retaliatory measures if President Trump follows through on threats to impose tariffs on the bloc. (Source: Financial Times - headquarters London, England)

Georgia
05.02.2025  At a plenary session, Georgia’s parliament voted to strip 49 opposition MPs of their mandates. The parliament, which was originally supposed to have 150 members, is now reduced to 101. Georgian Parliament Speaker Papuashvili defended the decision as a fair, constitutional, and lawful response and claimed that opposition MPs in the previous parliament had not worked a single day in office. (Source: JAMnews - a project of Go Group, based in Tbilisi, Georgia. Its major donor is the European Endowment for Democracy which receives funding mainly from the European Commission).

Ukraine
05/02/2025  Russia's defence ministry said it had swapped 150 captured Ukrainian troops for the return of 150 Russians held by Kyiv. Its troops were undergoing medical checks in allied Belarus before returning to Russia, it said. (Source: France24 / AFP - France)

Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo
Feb 05, 2025  Rwanda-backed M23 rebels last week captured regional capital Goma. On January 27 morning hundreds of female inmates were attacked in their wing inside Goma’s Munzenze prison. The area for women was set on fire. (Source: Hindustan Times - India)

Egypt
February 5, 2025  Arab foreign ministers from Qatar, Jordan, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt issued a statement rejecting US President Trump's proposal to relocate Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan during a meeting of the Arab League in Cairo on February 3. The foreign ministers along with the Secretary-General of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) and the Secretary-General of the Arab League, met in Cairo, released a joint statement outlining key agreements as Isreali Prime Minister met with Trump in Washington. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Germany)

Asia

Syria
Wednesday, 5 February 2025  Turkish president Erdoğan and Syrian interim president Jolani met in Ankara. The central topic was the democratic autonomous administration of North-East Syria, which Erdoğan wants to see dismantled. Erdoğan has offered Jolani cooperation in the fight against terrorism. Turkey is occupying large areas near the Syrian-Turkish border together with jihadist militia. /Source: Firat News Agency (ANF) - a Kurdish news agency. Headquarters Amsterdam, Netherlands/

North America

United States
February 5, 2025  The Central Intelligence Agency offered buyouts to its entire workforce yesterday, citing an aim to bring the agency in line with U.S. President Trump's priorities. It is in line with a massive makeover of the U.S. government embarked on by the Trump administration, which has fired and sidelined hundreds of civil servants in first steps toward downsizing the bureaucracy and installing loyalists. Ratcliffe, a former member of the House of Representatives who served as Director of National Intelligence during Trump's first term, was confirmed by the U.S. Senate as director of the CIA days after Trump took office for his second term. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

February 5, 2025  Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met with US President Trump to discuss post-war Gaza real estate development. Trump announced plans for American control and redevelopment of the Gaza Strip, potentially changing the face of the region. “The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it too," Trump declared at the White House. “I do see a long-term ownership position, and I see it bringing great stability to that part of the Middle East, and maybe the entire Middle East,” Trump explained. “This was not a decision made lightly. Everybody I’ve spoken to loves the idea of the United States owning that piece of land, developing and creating thousands of jobs with something that will be magnificent.” The proposal includes American oversight of unexploded ordnance removal and reconstruction efforts. When questioned about potential US military deployment to fill any security vacuum, Trump left the possibility open. His vision for transforming the area into what he called a new “Riviera,” come as Israeli architecture firm Harey Zahav's "Golden Mountains" previously mockingly announced plans to redevelop the Gaza coastline, uploading pictures onto their social media in 2024. President Trump addressed the potential resettlement of Gaza's approximately 1.8mn residents, expressing his belief that Egypt and Jordan “won’t tell him no.” "I want to remove all the residents of Gaza," he stated. “It will happen.” “Look, the Gaza thing has not worked. It's never worked. And I feel very differently about Gaza than a lot of people. I think they should get a good, fresh, beautiful piece of land, and we get some people to put up the money to build it and make it nice and make it habitable and enjoyable,” Trump had previously stated regarding the living conditions of Gazans following the war with Israel. He added that they appear to have no feasible alternative living arrangement aside from relocation, adding: “What do they have? It is a big pile of rubble right now. I mean, have you seen the pictures of it? Have you been there? It's terrible to live. Who can live like that?” Trump then outlined his vision for a complete transformation of the territory, stating that he wants to “resettle people permanently in nice homes and where they can be happy and not be shot, not be killed.” “I don't think people should be going back to Gaza,” he continued, describing current living conditions as “hell.” While he later suggested that Palestinians could be among future residents, he claimed that this would not be a permanent arrangement. On the hot-button issue of West Bank annexation, the US president stated: “I'm not going to talk about that”. Still, he addressed the relatively small size of Israel, explaining: “It certainly is a small, it’s a small country in terms of land.” He then picked up a pen and displayed it to the journalists present, stating: “See this pen? This wonderful pen on my desk is the Middle East, and the top of the pen, that’s Israel.” (Source: bne IntelliNews - Germany)

Feb 5, 2025  Amid Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the US, President Trump has refuted reports suggesting that Washington is working in cahoots with the Jewish nation to 'blow Iran into smithereens'. Trump clarified that such speculation is "greatly exaggerated". "I would much prefer a Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement, which will let Iran peacefully grow and prosper," he said. Netanyahu visited the White House yesterday. Trump reiterated that he wants "Iran to be a great and successful country, but one that can't have a nuclear weapon". "Think of it like two kids fighting in the schoolyard. Sometimes you have to just let it go a little bit, we'll see what happens," the Republican had said last year. President Trump said yesterday that he’s given his advisers instructions to obliterate Iran if it assassinates him. (Source: India Today)

Earth

05 Feb 2025  Musk’s SpaceX’s Starship rocket in mid-January may have released significant amounts of harmful air-pollution into the Earth’s atmosphere. The rocket’s upper stage blew up at an altitude of around 90 miles and rained scorching fragments of metal across the Caribbean. This was SpaceX’s seventh test flight. The uncrewed test flight was destroyed less than ten minutes after its launch from Texas on January 16. It was intended to soar across the Gulf of Mexico on a near loop around the world. However, instead it plunged back to Earth through the atmosphere and may have generated 45 metric tons of metal oxides and 40 metric tons of nitrogen oxides. In particular, nitrogen oxides are known for their potential to damage Earth’s protective ozone layer. (Source: Daily Star - United Kingdom)

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Europe

Germany
04 Feb 2025     The US is the largest trading partner of Germany outside of Europe, and Germany has a trade surplus of €67 billion. Germany must prepare for a trade war with Trump and learn from Canada’s determined response. Simply fantasizing about a free trade agreement with the US, as CDU leader Merz does, will be far from sufficient as a reaction, it is currently pure wishful thinking. As the cases of Canada and Mexico show, even a free trade agreement does not protect against Trump’s overreach. The economic strain of a tariff war on Germany and all other EU economies will be enormous. This highlights the vulnerability of Germany’s export-driven economy, which suffers from weak domestic demand.    Germany and Europe should muster a robust response inspired by Canada. Prime Minister Trudeau has announced counter-tariffs of 25% on over $100 billion worth of US goods. Additionally, he has hinted at restrictions on the export of critical raw materials and oil essential for US production - ways that increase inflation and negatively impact pro-Trump states. After all, Trump has promised low inflation and a booming economy. He may be vulnerable to increasing inflation. Trump agreed to a 30 day freeze on the tariffs after Mexican president Sheinbaum and Trudeau both vowed to implement counter-tariffs. The EU Commission has already prepared a list of goods for counter-tariffs that would hit the US economy, particularly in Trump-friendly states. (Source: Global Public Policy Institute - based in Berlin and Geneva)
by Brenner

Sweden
February 4, 2025  About 10 people, including the gunman, are dead in a shooting at an adult education center called Campus Risbergska on the outskirts of the city of Orebro, located about 200 kilometers west of Stockholm. (Source: NPR / The Associated Press = U.S.)

European Union
2/4/2025  'Populist' parties across the EU have gained significantly in popularity over the last decade, with the rise in prominence of Germany's AfD party and France's National Rally - both of which, after undeniable electoral successes, now wield considerable influence over the respective policy directions of their national governments. Euroskepticism and anti-immigration sentiment was largely fueled by public dissatisfaction with the EU's response to undocumented migration to the continent. Forthcoming elections in Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic could see 'populist anti-EU' parties gain more ground this year, but 'anti-EU' governments will remain well short of the blocking minority needed in the European Council to seriously upset EU decision-making. "Where they are in government, they have tended to shift toward the political center, with the notable exception of Hungary. Much of the 'far right's' prospects will therefore depend on whether governments can find more effective ways to deal with the slow-burning migration crisis that is the strongest driver of populist support in the EU, analysts said. So-called strongman leaders of Europe - most of whom are allied with the likes of U.S. President Trump and Russia's Putin and often rejecting directives from the European Union - look increasingly weak, analysts say. The leaders of Hungary and Slovakia are often put in the same genre of nationalist, ’right-wing’ and strongman leadership. Forthcoming elections mean anti-EU populist leaders could face their biggest challenge yet. Trump's inauguration was expected to give a shot in the arm to nationalist-populist leaders and parties such as Hungary's Viktor Orbán, Slovakia's Robert Fico, Germany's right-wing AfD party and Le Pen and her National Rally party in France. But domestic pressures and economic challenges weigh on their popularity and power. European Union members  Hungary and Slovakia have pushed back against the bloc's initiatives reducing imports of Russian gas and oil. The nations have instead opted to maintain supplies 'amid fears of mounting energy costs at home'. Despite the opposition's withdrawal of a no-confidence motion earlier in January, last week Prime Minister Robert Fico saw his governing coalition lose its majority in parliament after four MPs withdrew their support. Fico faced some of the largest public protests since 1989 in opposition to his government's increasingly pro-Russian foreign policy. More demonstrations are planned this week. In the meantime, the latest opinion polls show that opposition Progressive Slovakia has overtaken SMER-SSD (Fico's 'left-wing populist' party). 'In Hungary, Fico's ally Orbán is under increasing domestic pressure this year, with the rapid increase in popularity of opposition leader Magyar and his Tisza Party. Various opinion polls since November have showed Tisza pulling ahead of Orbán's Fidesz party, with 35%-45% support among decided voters - about four to six percentage points ahead of Fidesz. If that trend continues, anti-EU populist Orbán could lose the 2026 election’. Orbán and Fidesz's media are emphasizing his international and diplomatic importance through his contacts with Trump, Russian President Putin, and Chinese President Xi, as well as his peace efforts in the Ukraine war and the great diplomatic achievements of Hungary's EU presidency. But Orbán is facing his most difficult year since first coming to power in 2010. This will further undermine his ability 'to hijack' - let alone drive - the EU's agenda as the bloc's preeminent populist leader. (Source: MSN / CNBC – Headquarters Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey = U.S.)

South Caucasus
February 4, 2025  The three countries of the South Caucasus - Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia - hold wildly different expectations and have dramatically divergent strategies to deal with the incoming Trump Administration. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Germany)
By Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center (RSC) in Yerevan, Armenia.

Ukraine
04/02/2025  A Russian ballistic missile killed five and injured more than 50 in the town of Izium in Kharkiv region. The missile also partially destroyed the city council building. (Source: France24 / Reuters - United Kingdom)

(4 February 2025)  Russian forces are closing in the industrial city of Pokrovsk – they are now less than 2km away. Very few residents – mostly elderly – remain, as they wait for Pokrovsk to fall. There are around 7,000 people still there. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

Tuesday 04 February 2025  Mapped. US president Trump has announced he wants Ukraine to pay for financial and military support by affording Washington access to the country’s vast but untapped rare earth minerals. He said yesterday he wants “equalisation” from Ukraine for the US’ “close to $300 billion” in support. Ukrainian mineral deposits are worth more than £12 trillion, including lithium and titanium, much of which is untapped. The Crimean peninsula also holds roughly £165 billion worth of minerals. More than 50 per cent of critical rare earth mineral resources are in regions annexed by Putin and partially occupied by his forces. The region of Dnipropetrovsk, which borders the largely occupied regions of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, and sits in the face of an advancing Russian army, contains an additional £2.8 trillion in mineral resources. In 2021 President Zelensky offered outside investors tax breaks and investment rights to help mine these minerals. He then placed the mining of these minerals into his victory plan, drawn up last year. The minerals are vital for electric vehicles, other clean energy efforts, as well as defence production. Foreign Policy found that Ukraine held “commercially relevant deposits of 117 of the 120 most-used industrial minerals across more than 8,700 surveyed deposits”. Included in that is half a million tonnes of lithium, none of which has been tapped. This makes Ukraine the largest lithium resource in Europe. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

Asia

China
2025.02.04  China imposed counter tariffs against multiple U.S. products today, while also launching an investigation into Google on suspicion of violating antitrust laws, as U.S. tariffs on China came into effect. China’s finance ministry said it was imposing additional tariffs of 15% on coal and liquified natural gas imports from the U.S. and 10% higher duties on American crude oil, farm equipment and certain cars, from Feb. 10. In a separate statement, the Chinese commerce ministry and customs officials announced export controls on a range of items related to certain critical minerals, including tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, molybdenum and ruthenium. The foreign ministry added fentanyl was “a U.S. problem,” saying that at the request of the United States, China was the first country in the world to officially regulate all fentanyl-related substances in 2019. (Source: Radio Free Asia - Headquarters Washington, D.C.)

North America

United States
Feb. 4, 2025  “The first flights from the United States to Guantanamo Bay with illegal migrants are under way,” White House press secretary Leavitt said. The administration has said it would expand operations there to hold up to 30,000. The base is now equipped to hold 120 migrants. Roughly 200 Marines were dispatched to Guantanamo in recent days. That number is expected to rise to 500 in the coming days. (Source: The Wall Street Journal - U.S.)

February 4, 2025  The Trump administration prioritizes stopping people from making the journey to the United States and has worked with regional countries to boost immigration enforcement on their borders as well as to accept deportees from the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said late yesterday that El Salvador's president has offered to accept and incarcerate deportees from the U.S. of any nationality, currently imprisoned in the U.S. President Bukele confirmed the offer in a social media post, saying El Salvador was willing to rehouse deportees and American prisoners in exchange for a fee in a two-year-old mega-prison (CECOT) he had built as potent symbol of his crackdown on criminal gangs. The massive facility sits on the edge of a jungle about 45 miles southeast of San Salvador. It has a capacity for 40,000 inmates but only about 15,000 currently estimated to be incarcerated there. The Trump administration had no current plans to try to deport American citizens. The agreement Rubio described for El Salvador to accept foreign nationals arrested in the United States for violating U.S. immigration laws is known as a "safe third country" agreement. Officials have suggested this might be an option for Venezuelan gang members convicted of crimes in the United States should Venezuela refuse to accept them. Panama has been more cooperative and has allowed flights of third-country deportees to land and sent migrants back before they reach the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio’s five-nation Central American tour of Costa Rica, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic continues after Panama and El Salvador. (Source: CBS News, Headquarters New York / AP = U.S.)

February 4, 2025  US President Trump has invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit the White House next week. A C-17 aircraft had departed for India with migrants aboard. The Pentagon has also started providing flights to deport more than 5,000 immigrants held by US authorities in El Paso, Texas, and San Diego, California. So far, military aircraft have flown migrants to Guatemala, Peru and Honduras. The military flights are a costly way to transport migrants. A military deportation flight to Guatemala last week likely cost at least $4,675 per migrant. (Source: Gulf Today - United Arab Emirates)

2025.02.04  Pause tariffs on Canada, Mexico. Trump imposed a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico over fentanyl smuggling and what Trump says is their failure to stop the flow of cross-border migrants. But Trump agreed yesterday to pause the tariffs on Canada and Mexico for a month as the two countries unveiled new plans to fend off drug trafficking on their borders with the U.S. After a call with Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Canada would implement a C$1.3 billion (US$893 million) border plan, including reinforcing it with new helicopters, technology and personnel to stop the flow of fentanyl. Nearly 10,000 front-line personnel will work on protecting the border and Canada will appoint a “Fentanyl Czar,” list cartels as terrorists, ensure “24/7 eyes” on the border and launch a Canada-U.S. Joint Strike Force to combat organized crime, fentanyl and money laundering. “Canada has agreed to ensure we have a secure Northern Border, and to finally end the deadly scourge of drugs like Fentanyl that have been pouring into our Country, killing hundreds of thousands of Americans, while destroying their families and communities all across our Country,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Separately, Trump announced that Mexican President Sheinbaum agreed to immediately deploy 10,000 soldiers to the border to stop the flow of fentanyl and illegal migrants into the U.S. We attempt to achieve a deal between our two countries, the U.S. president said. (Source: Radio Free Asia - Headquarters Washington, D.C.)

February 04, 2025  The  U.S. warship Preble, which is currently deployed in the Western Pacific Ocean, armed with a 60-kilowatt high-energy laser weapon - the High Energy Laser with Integrated Optical-dazzler and Surveillance (HELIOS), developed by U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin - was pictured firing its laser at a drone target. Preble is the only U.S. destroyer armed with a high-energy laser weapon. /Photo/ (Source: Miami Herald)

February 4, 2025  RFK Jr. made promises to win key Senator's vote. Sen. Cassidy said he received numerous pledges from Kennedy Jr. and the Trump administration to protect medicine and science - particularly regarding vaccines - that clinched his support for the HHS secretary nominee. Cassidy said Kennedy and the administration promised an "unprecedentedly close collaborative working relationship" that includes the two of them meeting or speaking "multiple times a month." They also said that Kennedy could appear before the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee - which Cassidy currently chairs - quarterly if requested. Most of the pledges revolved around vaccines, including that Kennedy will work within current approval and safety monitoring systems, and not establish parallel systems. He'll also maintain recommendations from CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) without changes, and statements that vaccines don't cause autism won't be removed from the CDC website. Kennedy will also not use "subversive techniques ... like sue-and-settle to change policies enacted by Congress without first going through Congress," Cassidy said. He also noted that Kennedy asked for his input on hiring decisions at HHS beyond Senate-confirmed positions. Both Kennedy and the administration "committed to a strong role of Congress," Cassidy said, in part through the meetings with the HELP Committee. The committee chair will also be able to choose a representative on any board or commission formed to review vaccine safety. In addition, HHS will provide a 30-day notice to the committee if it seeks to make changes to any federal vaccine safety monitoring programs, and the committee will be able to call a hearing on any potential changes to these programs, Cassidy said. "If Mr. Kennedy is confirmed, I will use my authority as chairman of the Senate committee with oversight of HHS to rebuff any attempt to remove the public's access to life-saving vaccines without iron-clad, causational scientific evidence that can be accepted and defended before the mainstream scientific community and before Congress," Cassidy said. "I will watch carefully for any effort to wrongfully sow public fear about vaccines between confusing references of coincidence and anecdote. But my support is built on assurances that this will not have to be a concern, and that he and I can work together to build an agenda to make America healthy again." During a press briefing today, Benjamin, MD, executive director of the American Public Health Association, said that he was skeptical that Cassidy and Congress would have much say in Kennedy's decisions. "Is he going to pick up the phone and call the senator every time he's about to make a controversial decision? I don't think so," Benjamin told reporters. "Even if he does, whose opinion weighs more?" he asked, referring to President Trump. (Source: ABC News - U.S.)

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United States
3 February 2025  Project 2025: a product of the Heritage Foundation, one of Washington's most prominent ’right-wing’ think tanks.     Heritage has been influential during Republican presidencies. It first produced policy plans for future Republican administrations in 1981, when Reagan was about to take office. It has produced similar documents in connection with subsequent presidential elections, including in 2016, when Trump first won the presidency. One year into Trump's first term, the think tank boasted that the White House had adopted nearly two-thirds of its proposals. Project 2025 is a 900-page policy "wish list", a set of proposals that would expand presidential power and ’impose an ultra-conservative social vision’. It lays out one vision of how Trump might govern over the next four years. It was unveiled in April 2023, but went largely unnoticed outside of policy circles until the heat of the presidential campaign, when Democratic opposition to the document ramped up. Democratic politicians launched a "Stop Project 2025 Task Force" and even set up a tip line to collect insider information on Heritage's activities. During his campaign, Trump repeatedly disavowed Project 2025, after a backlash over some of its more radical ideas. He began actively pushing away from the document in July 2024. The team that created the project was chock-full of former Trump advisers, including director Dans, who was chief of staff at the Office of Personnel Management while Trump was president. Dans later left the project. But Trump has nominated several of its authors to fill key government positions, and many of his initial executive orders closely follow proposals outlined in the document. Vought wrote a key chapter in the document and served as the Republican National Committee’s 2024 platform policy director. Vought, who served in Trump's first administration, was again nominated by the president to lead the Office of Budget Management, which administers the $6.75tn federal budget. Other Project 2025 authors nominated to government positions include Ratcliffe, Trump's pick to lead the CIA; Carr, chosen to oversee the Federal Communications Commission; Homan, Trump's "border czar"; Atkins, nominated to head the Securities and Exchange Commission; and trade advisor Navarro. More than 100 conservative organisations contributed to the document, Heritage says, including many that will now be hugely influential in Washington. Some of the proposals have already formed the basis for Trump's executive orders - although in a number of cases they are also mentioned in other policy documents, including the Republican platform and Trump's Agenda47 campaign manifesto.     The document itself sets out four main policy aims: restore the family as the centrepiece of American life; dismantle the administrative state; defend the nation's sovereignty and borders; and secure God-given individual rights to live freely.    Project 2025 proposes that the entire federal bureaucracy, including independent agencies such as the Department of Justice, be placed under direct presidential control - idea known as "unitary executive theory". In practice, that would streamline decision-making, allowing the president to directly implement policies in a number of areas. The proposals also call for eliminating job protections for thousands of government employees, who could then be replaced by political appointees. The document labels the FBI a "bloated, arrogant, increasingly lawless organization". It calls for drastic overhauls of the agency and several others, as well as the complete elimination of the Department of Education. Trump intends to take a sledgehammer to the federal government as it currently stands - a goal broadly in line with Project 2025 suggestions. Shortly after being sworn in, Trump moved to eliminate job protections for career civil servants, and freeze federal spending. Through Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency, the White House has moved to chop billions in federal spending. DOGE is not an official government department, but rather an outside team advising Trump with broad authority from the president.   The mentions of abortion in Project 2025 are about 200 of them. The document does not call for an outright nationwide abortion ban, and Trump says he would not sign such a law. He has generally said that abortion laws should mostly be left to individual states. It proposes withdrawing the abortion pill mifepristone from the market, and using existing but little-enforced laws to stop the drug being sent through the post. During confirmation hearings, Trump's nominee for health secretary, Kennedy Jr, said the president had ordered him to examine the safety record of mifepristone and left open the possibility of further regulation of the drug. Trump also issued an executive order designed to stop federal funds being used for abortion, a move that was outlined in detail in the Project 2025 document. The Project 2025 document proposes new data collection efforts on abortion and more generally suggests that the department of Health and Human Services should "maintain a biblically based, social science-reinforced definition of marriage and family".    Increased funding for a wall on the US-Mexico border - one of Trump's signature proposals in 2016 - is proposed in the document. But Trump's signature immigration policy - a pledge to deport millions of undocumented immigrants - is not spelled out in any detail in Project 2025, calling on Trump to "thoroughly enforce immigration laws". In the main chapter dealing with immigration, Project 2025 authors suggest dismantling the Department of Homeland Security and combining it with other immigration enforcement units in other agencies, creating a much larger and more powerful border policing operation.    Other proposals include eliminating visa categories for crime and human trafficking victims, increasing fees on immigrants and allowing fast-tracked applications for migrants who pay a premium. Mass deportations, visa changes or a longer, taller border wall was Trump's top pitch to voters. On this issue, his administration promises to go in a slightly different direction - and potentially much further - than the Project 2025 proposals.    Energy policy is a broad area of agreement between Trump and the Project 2025 proposals, summed up by one of the president's campaign slogans: "Drill, baby, drill". The new administration wants to ramp up fossil fuel production and has taken the US out of the Paris Agreement on climate change, which seeks to limit emissions and global warming. Project 2025 proposes slashing federal money for research and investment in renewable energy. It calls for the next president to "stop the war on oil and natural gas" - ideas that the Trump campaign has enthusiastically taken up. The document sets out two competing visions on tariffs: one suggesting boosting free trade and another pro-tariff position. Trump has clearly sided with the latter camp, announcing import taxes targeting Canada, Mexico and China. The economic advisers of Project 2025 suggest that a second Trump administration should slash corporate and income taxes, abolish the Federal Reserve and even consider a return to gold-backed currency. The president’s economic talk in the early days of his administration has been dominated by tariffs.    Almost immediately upon taking office, Trump moved to end diversity, equity and inclusion programs and decreed that government departments would recognise only two genders. Those moves are broadly in line with Project 2025, which took aim at diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and gender terminology as part of what it describes as a wider crackdown on "woke" ideology. The document also calls for greater school choice - essentially subidising religious and private schools with public funds - which was also the subject of an early Trump executive order. It calls for abolishing the Department of Education, another idea that Trump has signalled he supports. Project 2025 suggests banning pornography and shutting down tech and telecoms companies that allow access to adult material. Trump's views on the tech industry have regularly shifted, and don't appear to have much to do with sexual content. The new administration has drawn support from a number of top tech bosses.    The writing of Project 2025 was backed by a $22m budget from Heritage. It includes strategies for implementing policies, such as the creation of a database of conservative loyalists to fill government positions, and a programme to train those new workers. There are clear areas of agreement and overlapping personnel. Many of the themes of Project 2025 were independently being touted by the Trump campaign. It's very early in Trump's second term, and still unclear how far the president will be able to go in reshaping the vast US federal government. Many of the president's executive orders and other actions will continue to face political and legal challenges. (BBC - United Kingdom)

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Europe

Belgium
03/02/2025  Flemish conservative Bart De Wever, 54, the former mayor of Antwerp since 2013 was sworn today of office before King Philippe at the royal palace in Brussels as Belgium's new prime minister, after seven months of negotiations to reach a coalition deal that shifts the country to the right. De Wever has pledged to crack down on irregular migration. His N-VA party is part of the 'hard-right' ECR group in the European Parliament, which also includes lawmakers from the parties of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Czech leader Petr Fiala. The new government brings together three parties from Dutch-speaking Flanders: the N-VA, the centrist Christian-Democrats and the leftist Vooruit (Onward). And it includes two from French-speaking Wallonia: the centrist Les Engages and the centre-right Reformist Movement. Together, they hold an 81-seat majority in Belgium's 150-seat parliament. (Source: France24 / AFP = France)

Finland
03.02.2025  The Finnish Foreign Ministry said in a press release that it published an information package on its website for those planning or considering traveling to serve as volunteer fighters on the side of Kyiv. The package provides guidelines for various issues and circumstances, including being wounded, killed, or missing in action, or becoming a prisoner of war. “In my opinion, the authors of such ‘instructions’ were guided by nothing but hatred for their own citizens and disregard for their fate. Who in the Finnish government hates the Finns so much?” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Germany
3 February 2025  Job market shrinks, German unemployment hits almost 3 million. (Source: Brussel's Signal)

Poland
03.02.2025  Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose country holds the EU's rotating six-month presidency said during an informal summit of EU leaders in Brussels today that the EU must offer a 'firm and united' response to US President Trump’s tariff threats. He also said he would try to convince all European leaders 'against limiting or eliminating the spending of European money on American weapons'. This is not about 'sucking up to someone in Washington,' he said, but about 'finally taking security seriously as our top priority.' (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

3 February 2025  The Polish parliamentary committee investigating the purchase and use of Pegasus spyware by the former Conservative (PiS) government has voted to have former PiS justice minister Ziobro incarcerated for 30 days. The Constitutional Court had previously issued an injunction against further committee proceedings. The centre-left Tusk government’s opinion is that the Constitutional Court was improperly constituted and therefore its decisions were null and void. (Source: Brussel's Signal)

European Commission
03.02.2025     'The EU is Ukraine's largest overall donor. We have contributed over 134 billion euro, including close to 50 billion in military aid,' said High Representative/Vice-President Kallas in her opening speech at EU Ambassadors Conference 2025. 'I want us to find further financing solutions for Ukraine. We have clear understanding what we want to deliver: Ukraine’s defence for Europeans’ defence,' she added.   And: "Where we have common interests, there is a space for cooperation: Maintaining and strengthening our alliances with like-minded countries; Pursuing peace in the Middle East; And nurturing mutually beneficial partnerships; And with a team that pulls together, we can deliver on our priorities, grow our geopolitical role, and strengthen our greatest asset as the most predictable, reliable and credible partner in the world'. (Source: European External Action Service - Headquarters Brussels, Belgium)

European Union
(Monday), February 03, 2025  The European Union leaders gather today and are expected to discuss what military capabilities they need in the coming years, how they could be funded and how they might co-operate more through joint projects. Costa, the president of the European Council of EU leaders, has billed the one-day gathering as a "retreat" devoted to defence policy rather than a formal summit, aiming for an open discussion without any official declaration or decisions. The first session focuses on geopolitics and relations with the United States, meaning Trump's weekend move on tariffs. Trump will also be a major factor in the talks on defence. He has said Nato's European members should spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence - a figure no member of the alliance including the United States currently reaches. Trump's call for EU member Denmark to cede Greenland to the United States has also added strains to transatlantic ties. "Europe needs to assume greater responsibility for its own defence," Costa said in a letter to the leaders. "It needs to become more resilient, more efficient, more autonomous and a more reliable security and defence actor." The funding discussion will be especially tough, as many European countries have little room in their public finances for big spending hikes. The Baltic states and France, advocate joint EU borrowing to spend on defence. Germany and the Netherlands are staunchly opposed. European countries have ramped up defence spending in recent years. Last year, they spent an average of 1.9 per cent of GDP on defence - about 326 billion euros. That is a 30 per cent increase from 2021. Warsaw is leading the pack at more than 4.1 per cent. Italy and Spain spend much less - about 1.5 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively. The leaders of the EU's 27 nations will lunch with Nato Secretary General Rutte and dine with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. (Source: AsiaOne - Singapore / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Russia
Mon, Feb 3 2025  After U.S. President imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, provoking alarm among European allies, Putin warned on the Rossiya-1 state TV channel that Europe will quickly “stand at the feet of the master”, „all of them will wag their tails a little” and that Trump’s second administration would “restore order” in Europe. * European leaders are gathering today, with the threat of tariffs likely to be high on the agenda. The key theme of the meeting is strengthening their defense strategy. President Trump said tariffs on the European Union could follow pretty soon, but said there could be a deal with the U.K. which has a more balanced trading relationship with its trans-Atlantic ally. Trump has already warned European leaders that they need to be responsible for their own security, lambasting NATO allies for not meeting defense spend commitments and saying last month that he could ask them to spend even more on defense. “You know, there are many tensions there, so, of course, we have no desire to be associated with all this in any way or to evaluate it in any way,” Kremlin press secretary Peskov told in his daily press briefing. The European Commission yesterday was stating that it would ’respond firmly’ to any U.S. duties. Moscow has expressed hopes that its own relationship with the U.S. could improve under Trump. Putin and Trump have had cordial relations in the past, with both leaders expressing admiration for each other, previously. Russia stands to benefit from U.S. tariffs on its trading partners as they are likely to suffer a steep economic hit. The tariffs also sow disarray among erstwhile allies - partners who, like the U.S. under former President Biden, have looked to weaken Russia’s leadership and economy with punitive measures designed to stymy Moscow’s economic and geopolitical power. The U.S.′ allies in Europe ’fear’ the president will stop U.S. military funding for Ukraine and could push Kyiv into peace talks to end the war. Putin said last month that he hoped he and Trump could meet soon to discuss the war and energy prices. If Trump pulls U.S. funding for Ukraine, Europe will have to confront a decision whether to shoulder the financial burden of Ukraine alone. A number of leaders - particularly those in Eastern Europe who are seen to be on friendlier terms with the Kremlin - are already skeptical of more sanctions on Russia and funding for Ukraine. Criticizing his European counterparts yesterday, Putin said European leaders on the Continent lacked conviction in their beliefs. Praising former European leaders such as France’s De Gaulle, Chirac and Germany’s Schroeder, Putin said such leaders had their own opinion and the courage to fight for this opinion, to express it, to talk about it and to try to at least implement it in practical work. Today, there are practically no such people there, Putin said, RIA Novosti reported. (Source: CNBC – U.S.)
* "The comments were reported by state news agency RIA Novosti and translated by Google."

February 3, 2025  During a December 2022 meeting at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Former Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi proposed a plan for an offensive on Russia’s Belgorod, Major General Nazarov said. Nazarov served as Zaluzhnyi’s chief adviser and later as his consultant. The plan involved taking control of Belgorod city itself. (Source: Meduza - Headquarters Riga, Latvia)

Ukraine
February 3, 2025  The electricity front of Russia's war against Ukraine.   From 2011 to 2022, the successive disengagement from Russian energy structures and systems served to further increase tensions with Russia. By February 2022, Ukraine had only one remaining requirement for gaining membership in the European grid: to demonstrate that it could operate its domestic grid reliably in isolation for a week. This “de-linking” (from Russia, Belarus, and Poland) had been previously scheduled for Feb. 24. Since the full-scale invasion began the same day and Ukraine went ahead with de-linking despite the attack, Ukraine’s grid continued to operate in isolation until it was accepted permanently into the European electricity grid on March 16, 2022. The revenue and status Ukraine derived from those exports from March 2022 through August 2022 were significant factors in the Russian decision to increase shelling of the substations and power lines associated with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.   Russia is close to achieving a decisive edge on the energy front of the Russo–Ukrainian war, leaving Ukraine’s damaged electrical grid 70 percent reliant on three complexes of nuclear reactors. The national grid is connected by 103 substations, a vital part of the entire system. On Nov. 28, attacks against four substations forced a temporary shutdown of one of the four reactors at the Rivne complex. Russia compelled the closure of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant using similar means in September 2022, and Ukraine closed the facility. Russia declared that it had taken control of the shuttered plant on Oct. 5, 2022. It remains in Russian hands today. Since the closure of that facility on Sep. 12, 2022, Ukraine has become a net importer of electricity, regularly petitioning the European grid system for higher import volumes and more infrastructure.   The International Atomic Energy Agency became involved in the war on the second day of the invasion. As of Jan. 23, 2025, there had been 271 statements on the situation in Ukraine. Due to the fear of an accident with local and international implications, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States are likely to join with the International Atomic Energy Agency in insisting on shutting down any of Ukraine’s nuclear power plant complexes if they - or the grid to which they are connected - fail to meet international safety standards. The E.U. – Ukraine Association Agreement states, in Article 342, that Ukraine must cooperate with International Atomic Energy Agency principles and standards for nuclear safety. With the agency monitoring on the ground and releasing regular press statements, there will be little room for Ukraine to negotiate.   The best measure Ukraine can take to avoid grid collapse is to concentrate air defense systems on protecting the key substations.    After a year of near-constant attacks, the grid operator, Ukrenergo, had to suspend payments in November 2024 for electricity imports. Large urban areas rapidly become ungovernable without electricity. A loss of electricity puts water, sewage, and heat at risk, increasing the likelihood of large-scale population displacement. An estimated 6.8 million refugees have already left Ukraine, with an additional 4.0 million internally displaced. Germany is hosting over 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees and Poland is already hosting over 900.000. An additional nine European countries are hosting between 100,000 and 900,000 each. A second wave of refugees would strain the resources. A grid collapse, should it occur, would reflect the ongoing role played by energy in this war. Ukraine’s survival now turns not on megatons, but on megawatts. (Source: War on the Rocks - U.S.)
by Sabonis-Helf, a professor at Georgetown University

Africa

South Africa
Feb 03, 2025  In January, South African President Ramaphosa signed a bill allowing the government to provide 'nil' compensation for certain expropriated properties. On his Truth Social platform, United States President Trump has announced a halt on all future funding to South Africa. Trump accused the African nation of "confiscating land and treating certain classes of people very badly." He disclosed an investigation into these allegations is underway. In 2018, Trump had directed then-Secretary of State Pompeo to look into allegations of violence against white farmers in South Africa. (Source: NewsBytes - India)

Asia

Gaza
3 Feb 2025  Gaza authorities revise war death toll to more than 61,700 people. (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)

Japan
February 3, 2025  The Japan-NATO Conference on Strategic Communications - as one of the priority areas of cooperation countering disinformation - took place in Tokyo. Japan will further enhance the Japan-NATO cooperation. (Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan)

Syria
Feb. 3, 2025  On the outskirts of the city of Manbij, in the area of Syria controlled by the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army coalition which includes radical Islamic rebel factions, a car bomb detonated, killing agricultural workers, 14 women and one man. Another 15 were injured, some seriously. (Source: UPI - U.S.)

North America

United States
Feb 03, 2025  India asks whether global tax deal can work after US withdrawal last month. (Source: Straits Times - Singapore / Reuters - United Kingdom)

February 3, 2025, Monday  Groving scrutiny at the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Musk has publicly calling it a criminal organization. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)

NATO

03.02.2025   'Spending 2% of GDP on defense not enough to keep us safe': NATO chief reiterated, speaking at a joint news conference in Brussels today. 'And the US is also under threat now with the long-range missiles coming out of North Korea, maybe in the future' thanks to all the technology the Russians are delivering to Pyongyang - Rutte said. We are all working to end this war, said the British premier, adding that the allies 'must do all' that they can to support Ukraine's defense. And that's why, he said, this year the UK will give more military support to Ukraine than ever before. The pair's remarks came following an informal meeting of EU leaders to discuss European defense. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

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Europe

Poland
02.02.2025  On Jan. 27, a commemoration was held to mark the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz-Birkenau concentration camp, where multiple world leaders were in attendance, including Germany's chancellor and the French, Polish, and Ukrainian presidents. Russia has not been invited to take part in the annual events commemorating Auschwitz's liberation. The Auschwitz concentration camp, established by Nazi Germany in occupied Poland, was liberated by Soviet forces on Jan. 27, 1945. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Russia
02/01/2025  Russia said it captured the strategic hilltop city of Toretsk in Donetsk region. It unleashed another large barrage of missiles and drones against Ukraine yesterday. /Photo/ (Source: DW - Germany ; "Reuters - United Kingdom, AP - United States")

Ukraine
February 2, 2025  A Russian missile attack on Odesa severely damaged multiple historic sites, including the Bristol Hotel. A Chabad-affiliated Jewish educational center adjacent to the Bristol Hotel was also impacted. The university serves for Jewish students from across Ukraine - more than 100 students, many of whom are graduates of Chabad’s Or Avner schools or the Mishpacha orphanage in Odesa. The institution sustained structural damage significant enough to prompt the temporary closure of its facilities. The strike, which left at least seven people wounded, also impacted the Odesa Philharmonic Theater and several UNESCO-protected buildings in the city center. (Source: The Jerusalem Post - Israel)

Asia

Afghanistan
(February 2, 2025)  Iran has deported approximately 1.1 million Afghan migrants since the start of this Persian calendar year, but nearly half of them have since returned, according to Iran’s Interior Minister Momeni. Pakistan’s prime minister ordered the expulsion of Afghan refugees holding ACC (Afghan Citizen Card) and PoR (Proof of Registration) cards. He also warned that all Afghans awaiting resettlement to third countries must leave Islamabad and Rawalpindi by March 31. (Source: Amu Television, a satellite television channel. Headquarters Virginia, U.S.)

India
Feb 02, 2025  China, Mexico, and Canada are the top contributors of US trade deficit, with China at 30.2 per cent, Mexico at 19 per cent, and Canada at 14 per cent, while India, contributing just 3.2 per cent is the ninth-largest contributor. “We have big deficits with all three of them. And in one case, they’re sending massive amounts of fentanyl, killing hundreds of thousands of people a year with fentanyl. And in the other two cases, they’re making it possible for this poison to get in. We have about a $200 billion deficit with Canada… and a $250 billion trade deficit with Mexico,” Trump said. In its report on January 17, the Peterson Institute for International Economics warned that a 10 percent tariff imposed by the US on China, followed by a Chinese retaliation, would result in a $55 billion reduction in US GDP over four years, and a $128 billion loss for China. “Inflation would increase by 20 basis points in the US, and after an initial dip, by 30 basis points in China. The initial fall in inflation in China is caused by a temporary tightening of Chinese monetary policy aimed at offsetting the depreciation of the Chinese currency. Trade policies under US President-elect Trump could lead to a potential economic boom for India, driven by major trade diversions in global trade. (Source: Hindustan Times - India)

Southeast Asia (ASEAN)

02 February 2025  Southeast Asia’s development has been a product of its successful integration into the global economy, made possible with confidence in a well-functioning rules-based multilateral trading system. That system is under threat. Southeast Asian nations need to develop a joint and common response. Trade between China and ASEAN has more than doubled since 2010, making China ASEAN’s largest trading partner. China’s 2024 trade surplus was reaching a record US$992 billion. Southeast Asian domestic markets are about to be hit by a tsunami of cheap Chinese goods, unable to enter the United States. Without a decisive response, the risks for ASEAN are high. (Source: East Asia Forum, an international policy forum, based at the Australian National University's Crawford School of Public Policy).
by Pangestu, Professor of International Economics at the University of Indonesia; Armstrong, Professor of Economics at The Australian National University.

North America

United States
(2 February 2025)  Parts of the US, including the Pacific Northwest and Northeast US, are deeply reliant on electricity or gas flows from Canada. Energy imports from Canada, including oil and electricity, will be spared from the full 25% levy and will face a 10% tariff. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the country will impose 25% tariffs against C$155 billion (€103 billion) of US goods. Mexican President Sheinbaum pledged retaliatory tariffs. China vowed corresponding countermeasures, China’s Commerce Ministry pledged to file legal proceedings to the World Trade Organisation. Trump’s actions also closed a loophole that exempted parcels worth less than $800 from tariffs. (Source: Luxembourg Times)

 NATO

02/01/2025  'Germany has to increase defense spending, that will be necessary,' NATO Secretary General Rutte told Germany's Bild's Sunday papers. (Source: DW - Germany)

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Europe

Greece
February 1, 2025  Greece’s relations with Turkey has forced Athens to be on top of its defense spending (more than 3% of its GPD): Greek defense minister Dendias (Source: Fox News - U.S.)

Serbia
February 1, 2025  On Nov. 1 a huge concrete canopy at Novi Sad's main railway station collapsed, killing 15 people. The crash sparked a wide anti-corruption movement and months of student-led street protests. Students lead blockade of bridges over the River Danube in the city of Novi Sad today. President Vucic has accused students and other protesters of working for foreign intelligence services to oust him from power. (Source: France24 / AP - United States)

Ukraine
February 1, 2025  The United States wants Ukraine to hold elections, potentially by the end of the year, especially if Kyiv can agree a truce with Russia in the coming months, Kellogg, President Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia told in an interview. "Most democratic nations have elections in their time of war. I think it is important they do so," Kellogg said. "I think it is good for democracy. That's the beauty of a solid democracy, you have more than one person potentially running." Kellogg and other White House officials have discussed in recent days pushing Ukraine to agree to elections as part of an initial truce with Russia. Trump officials are also debating whether to push for an initial ceasefire before trying to broker a more permanent deal. If presidential elections were to take place in Ukraine, the winner could be responsible for negotiating a longer-term pact with Moscow. Zelenskiy's five-year term was supposed to end in 2024 but presidential and parliamentary polls cannot be held under martial law, which Ukraine imposed in February 2022. Putin has said publicly he does not think Zelenskiy is a legitimate leader in the absence of a renewed electoral mandate and that he does not have the legal right to sign binding documents related to a potential peace deal. According to the Russian leader, however, Zelenskiy could take part in negotiations in the meantime but must first revoke a 2022 decree he signed banning talks with Russia for as long as Putin is in charge. Ukrainian legislation explicitly prohibits presidential and parliamentary elections being held under martial law. A former Western official raised concerns that lifting martial law could allow mobilized soldiers to leave the military, trigger an exodus of hard currency and prompt large numbers of draft-age men to run for the border, it could also ignite political instability, because it would make Zelenskiy a lame duck, diluting his power and influence and fueling jockeying by potential challengers. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

North America

1 February 2025  US federal websites scrub vaccine information and LGBTQ references. (Source: BBC – United Kingdom)

United States
Feb 01, 2025  'This morning I ordered precision Military air strikes on the Senior isis Attack Planner and other terrorists he recruited and led in Somalia. These killers, who we found hiding in caves, threatened the United States and our Allies. The strikes destroyed the caves they live in, and killed many terrorists without, in any way, harming civilians'. (Source: Truth Social – a social media platform, U.S.)
by (President) Trump

February 1, 2025  Crashed US Army Black Hawk unit was "on a routine, annual re-training of night flights on a standard corridor for a continuity of government mission". (Source: MSN - U.S. / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Space

February 1, 2025  A recently discovered asteroid named 2024 YR4 has a 1.2 percent chance of impacting Earth on 22 December 2032, the European Space Agency and NASA have found. (Source: Radio New Zealand / CNN - U.S.)

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United States
January 31, 2025  President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico - the United States’ largest trading partners - on February 1. U.S. importers will pay a 25 percent tax on all goods from Canada and Mexico, as Trump tries to force both countries to curb migration and drug trafficking into the United States. Imports from China, meanwhile, will face 10 percent tariffs unless Beijing reins in the smuggling of fentanyl precursor chemicals to Canada and Mexico, where they are made into U.S.-bound fentanyl.    How could tariffs affect the United States? Nearly half of all U.S. imports - more than $1.3 trillion - come from Canada, China, and Mexico. The new tariffs could reduce overall U.S. imports by 15 percent. The tariffs will generate around $100 billion per year in extra federal tax revenue. They would also impose significant costs on the broader economy: disrupting supply chains, raising costs for businesses, eliminating hundreds of thousands of jobs, and ultimately driving up consumer prices. Certain sectors of the U.S. economy would be hit particularly hard, including the automotive, energy, and food sectors. Gas prices could surge as much as 50 cents per gallon in the Midwest, as Canada and Mexico supply more than 70 percent of crude oil imports to U.S. refineries. Also at risk are cars and other vehicles, as the United States imports nearly half its auto parts from its northern and southern neighbors. A 25 percent tariff on Canada and Mexico would raise production costs for U.S. automakers, adding up to $3,000 to the price of some of the roughly sixteen million cars sold in the United States each year. Grocery costs would rise, too, as Mexico is the United States’ biggest source of fresh produce, supplying more than 60 percent of U.S. vegetable imports and nearly half of all fruit and nut imports. Still, the United States is less reliant on trade than many other industrialized economies, including Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Imports and exports make up just a quarter of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), and the United States sources what it does import from a fairly broad set of nations.    Tariffs would hit Canada and Mexico much harder, as trade makes up about 70 percent of both economies’ GDP. The two countries are particularly dependent on trade with the United States. Asymmetries in the cost of tariffs at home give the U.S. significant leverage over its North American partners in negotiations.   More than 80 percent of Mexico’s exports - including cars, machinery, fruits, vegetables, and medical equipment - head north, accounting for 15 percent of total U.S. imports. This dependence is especially pronounced on Mexico’s northern border. There, industrial states Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Baja California account for nearly half of Mexico’s exports to the United States, sending more than $200 billion worth of computers, electronics, transportation equipment, and other products each year. A unilateral 25 percent tariff on these goods could slash Mexico’s GDP by some 16 percent, with Mexico’s auto industry bearing the brunt. Mexico sends nearly 80 percent of the cars it produces to the United States alone, amounting to some 2.5 million vehicles each year. Duties would also threaten Mexico’s energy sector; the United States is the recipient of roughly 60 percent of Mexico’s petroleum exports, most of which is crude oil bound for U.S. refineries. At the same time, Mexico is the top destination for U.S. refined oil exports, which meet over 70 percent of domestic demand. U.S. tariffs would make fuel more expensive, raising prices at the pump and straining Mexico’s broader economy.    Canada faces a similar challenge. The United States buys more than 70 percent of Canada’s exports, with these goods making up 14 percent of total U.S. imports. Under the new tariffs, Canada’s energy sector would take the biggest hit, as exporters send 80 percent of their oil south.     How could tariffs affect China? Over the past two decades, the country has steadily reduced the importance of trade to its economy as Beijing has ramped up domestic production. The country’s share of global trade has climbed roughly 4 percent since 2016, when President Trump first took office, even as the United States’ share has dipped. China is comparatively less dependent on the United States and less reliant on trade overall. In recent years, U.S.-China trade has declined, particularly in sectors hit by previous tariffs and export controls, such as auto parts, data servers, furniture, and semiconductors. China has instead ramped up trade with other partners including the European Union, Mexico, and Vietnam. Today, imports and exports account for only about 37 percent of China’s GDP, compared to more than 60 percent in the early 2000s. Combined, these factors would lessen the shock of an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese exports to the United States.    What could happen the day after? Each country’s currency could weaken further, lessening the bite of tariffs on imports and raising the effective price of U.S. exports to other nations. The roughly 30 percent depreciation of Mexico’s peso since April and the Canadian dollar’s 8 percent drop since September also lessens the potential impact. Markets could potentially drive the peso, as well as the Canadian dollar, further down if tariffs are put in place. A weakened yuan has already softened the blow for Chinese producers, helping their exports remain competitive around the world. Additionally, Canada, China, or Mexico could respond in kind, imposing tit-for-tat tariffs on the United States. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has already suggested that Mexico could retaliate with tariffs of its own, and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which underpins North American free trade, would likely allow it. This wouldn’t be the first time countries have reciprocated. In 2018, Mexico and Canada placed retaliatory tariffs on a combined more than $15 billion worth of U.S. goods - including steel, pork, yogurt, and tablecloths - after Trump imposed tariffs on their steel and aluminum. Likewise, the United States lost $20 billion in annual farm exports when China hit back against a slew of U.S. tariffs from 2018 to 2019. If either Canada or Mexico retaliates, U.S. fuel exporters would likely take the biggest hit alongside automakers and other advanced manufacturers, including pharmaceutical producers.     Retaliatory tariffs on the United States would predominantly affect manufacturing-heavy states. Mexico buys 70 percent of New Mexico’s exports, including billions of dollars in U.S. semiconductor chips and electrical components that later return to the United States in Mexican-made cars and appliances. Texas sends more than $20 billion in chips, auto parts, and electrical equipment to Mexico; overall, the state’s southbound exports account for 5 percent of its GDP. Tariffs would also dent Ohio’s $5 billion worth of auto and metal exports to Canada as well as Maine’s $320 million in northbound lumber and paper exports. (Source: Council on Foreign Relations – U.S.)
by O'Neil and Huesa

January 31, 2025  In the past, most but not all nuclear arms control agreements with Russia have been submitted as treaties to the Senate for its advice and consent. "The now Republican-controlled Senate would likely pair approval of any such agreement with additional funding and requirements to accelerate and expand the ongoing nuclear modernization program, which is already slated to cost almost $2 trillion over the next 30 years'. To gain Senate approval, a treaty would require 67 votes. It is not hard to see at least two dozen Democrats or so supporting a deal to cap - even at such a large increase of forces - nuclear weapons and fund what will be billed as a necessary expansion of the US deterrent forces. Is a bad agreement worse than no agreement at all? By any historical standard, an agreement that is not effectively verified and does not substantially limit the growth of US, Russian (or Chinese) nuclear forces has marginal value for the United States and its allies. One that enables a doubling of strategic forces is better described as performative arms control. A hollow agreement might feel good, but it would likely do little to reduce nuclear risks or address growing international pressure to take serious steps toward disarmament. Of course, these voices are likely to have little, if any, influence on the Trump administration, which now feels empowered and eager to destroy past norms and agreements. And such a nuclear deal might even bolster Trump’s self-promoted case that he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize, another one of Trump’s long-held wishes. But even if negotiated and approved, such a treaty would not bring stability or peace - and it would have to be heavily scrutinized. Yet without an agreement, the three largest nuclear powers will likely keep building up their arsenals. Weighing the benefits of a performative agreement versus no agreement at all is a choice the United States can and should seek to avoid. Trump has an opportunity to negotiate a deal that effectively reduces nuclear risks and improves US security. There remains hope that the president might put in the hard work required to achieve a treaty that caps US and Russian strategic weapons at current or lower levels -a level still far above what China possesses. If Washington and Moscow lock in current levels, it could take China as long as 20 years for them to catch up. This means Russia and the United States together would have almost 10,000 total weapons and China would have no more than 1500 for at least the next decade. And if China’s arsenal ever gets to a size that undermines the United States’s deterrent, whoever is president at the time would always have the possibility of withdrawing from a treaty that no longer serves US interests. Given how quickly the international security environment is changing, the new agreement could have an initial period of five years, with the option to extend for additional five-year periods, as needed. In the intervening years, circumstances and leaders will change. Creating some nuclear stability and predictability for a decade or more is a worthy achievement and should be seriously considered. "A new agreement at current or lower levels should and could include robust on-site verification that uses the lessons learned from over 50 years of inspections, as well as rely on advanced satellite and other sensor technology". All can be brought to bear in a way that protects secrets but provides the necessary transparency to make a deal worth having. Certainly, a bad nuclear deal with Russia can, in many ways, be worse than no deal at all. But in this case, President Trump has a chance to prove his negotiating prowess and produce a deal that benefits US security now and into the future without compromising the ability of the United States to deter both Russia and China, at the same time. If President Trump seizes that chance, he will deserve accolades. (Source: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a website and a bi-monthly, academic journal - U.S.)
by Wolfsthal, who directs the Global Risk program at the Federation of American Scientists, serves on the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and is a member of the US Department of State’s International Security Advisory Board.

Space

31 January 2025  Stranded NASA astronaut Williams has forgotten how to walk after spending 234 days in microgravity.  /Video/ (Source: Daily Mail – United Kingdom)

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 "Ki ölte meg Kennedyt, avagy miért titkolja az állam a „nép” elől az „államtitkokat”?

- video -

(Forrás: YouTube / Egy Bogár Naplója):

https://tinyurl.com/yc3mcam9

Kennedy gyilkosságról; 2001. IX. 11.-ről, a 2014. évi, kijevi mesterséges polgárháború kirobbantásáról, a globális Covid19 víruskísérletről

Trump Elnök Úr egyik fontos ígérete volt, hogy minden Kennedy gyilkossággal kapcsolatos titkot nyilvánosságra hoz. Vajon ki és minek alapján dönti el azt, hogy mi az, amit el kell titkolni a „nép” elől?  Nem a nép elől akar eltitkolni bármit az állam, hanem a nép érdekében a nép ellenségei elől.  Ám, ha már a Kennedy gyilkossággal kapcsolatban fény derülhet arra, hogy kik is a nép ellenségei, akkor nem kéne itt megállni! Legalább ennyi titok övezi 2001 szeptember 11-ét, vagy éppen a Covid19 járványt, amelyeknek hivatalos verzióját már akkor sem hitte el a többség, ma meg már gyakorlatilag senki sem.

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Kulcsszavak:

Afganisztán    Egyesült Államok    Északi Áramlat    Franciaország    globalizmus    Irak    Kína    Magyarország    Németország    Oroszország    Ukrajna    vírus    WHO

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Europe

Norway
30 January 2025  The two-party, center-left, minority government coalition that has ruled the Nordic country since the 2021 parliament elections has collapsed following the Center Party's rejection of three EU directives on clean energy. Center Party leader and Finance Minister Vedum says he can not accept the directives that are part of EU's fourth energy package. The regulations are aimed at making the continent, including Norway, more energy efficient. The Fourth Energy Package is also known as 'Clean Energy for all Europeans.' "I believe it is wrong to give away more power to Brussels," Vedum has repeatedly underlined over the last weeks. He argues that Norway should halt and reverse integration in European energy policies. The Center Party has scored low on polls over the past year and it is now believed to flag its anti-European policies ahead of the upcoming September 2025 elections. The Center Party has its core support among farmers and agrarians and is strongly opposed also to the European Economic Area (EEA) Agreement, the deal that was negotiated after Norway's 'no' in the 1994 referendum on EU membership. 'Politics in Oslo today increasingly appear dominated by politicians who question basic pillars in Norway's international cooperation". PM Støre will now form a new government with members only from his Labour Party. (Source: The Barents Observer - Norway)

Sweden
30 January 2025  Quran-burning activist Momika, an Iraqi refugee in Sweden after carrying out several Quran burnings, has been shot dead on the evening of January 29. (Source: Brussels Signal)

Ukraine
Jan. 30, 2025  A Russian drone blasted a hole in an apartment building in northeastern Sumy city during a nighttime attack, killing at least six people and wounding nine others. The battlefield fighting has been especially fierce in recent times in the eastern Donetsk region, which Russian forces partly occupy and appear bent on capturing completely in coming months. A Russian artillery strike on the Donetsk city of Kramatorsk wounded 13 people. In Odesa region, Russian drones damaged a hospital and two apartment buildings. (Source: Los Angeles Times - U.S.)

North America

United States
(Thursday), January 30, 2025  During his first week in office, Trump and the presidents of Russia and Ukraine continued to stake out their negotiating positions ahead of a widely anticipated U.S.-led push to end the conflict. Russian President Putin, said on Friday that he was “ready for negotiations” and suggested meeting with Trump in person, describing his relationship with the U.S. leader as “businesslike, pragmatic, and trustworthy.” Last week, at World Economic Forum in Davos President Zelensky berated European leaders for not investing more in the continent’s defense, later saying that it would take a 200,000-strong European peacekeeping force to deter Russia from attacking again in the wake of a settlement. Trump threatened to impose “high levels” of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on Russian imports if a deal isn’t reached soon. Experts say they see no sign that Putin is ready to climb down from his ultimate goal of permanently bending Ukraine to his will. Moscow’s war aims remain unchanged as the third anniversary of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine looms: It’s about Ukraine not in NATO and NATO not in Ukraine. The Russian Embassy in Washington, D.C., directed to an article originally published in December by the country’s former president, Medvedev, in which he wrote that “Ukraine today stands at a crossroads: to align with Russia or to vanish from the world map altogether” and that the country should “resist opposing themselves to the pan-Russian project, and drive out the demons of political Ukrainianism.” The Biden administration, which led the Western coalition in supporting Kyiv, has packed its bags. Russian forces are making gradual gains in eastern Ukraine. The Russian leader believes that he is very close to achieving his objective of forcing the capitulation of Kyiv. Putin is not opposed to talks with Trump, so long as they secure the same outcome. Trump’s threat of tariffs would have limited impact, Putin unlikely to be bowed by economic pressure. Moscow was exporting $2.8 billion worth of goods to the United States last year, down from almost $30 billion in 2021. Moscow has continued to find workarounds, including by turning to Iran, China, and North Korea to sell its energy and procure weapons. A surge in defense spending, which will account for some 40 percent of the state budget this year, has fueled economic growth, driving up wages - particularly among the working class - which has helped pacify the population. Trump’s lieutenants have floated ideas for how to end the war. In April 2024, retired Lt. Gen. Kellogg, sketched out the broad contours of a deal that would see Ukraine temporarily lose control of Russian-occupied territories in exchange for unspecified security guarantees from the United States, while Ukraine’s NATO membership would be taken off the table for an extended period. He since been tasked by Trump to serve as special envoy for Russia and Ukraine. Whether Putin would be willing to abandon his efforts to keep Ukraine out of NATO by force in exchange for a diplomatic agreement to put the question of the country’s membership in the alliance on ice will likely depend on the details of such an agreement. (Source: Foreign Policy - U.S.)
By Mackinnon

Jan. 30, 2025  Secretary of Defense Hegseth and NATO Secretary General Rutte held an introductory call yesterday to discuss their shared commitment to building a stronger, more lethal NATO Alliance. Both leaders stressed the importance of raising Allied defense spending and expanding defense industrial base capacity on both sides of the Atlantic. Secretary Hegseth emphasized that the United States is fully committed, under President Trump's leadership, to pursuing these objectives in the face of today's threats. Both leaders agreed to work closely together and to meet in person soon. (Source: U.S. Department of Defense)

January 30, 2025  Yesterday, United States President Trump ordered the construction of a 30,000-bed facility at the Guantánamo Bay Naval Base in Cuba to detain migrants, because “we don’t even trust the countries to hold them [and] we don't want them coming back.” It suggests an intention to hold people in limbo for a long time. Guantánamo is a remote, highly controlled overseas US military installation, which the US government has used to evade legal protections and public scrutiny. “The name Guantánamo is synonymous with shame and infamy as the site of torture where prisoners are still being held for years without charge or trial,” said Frelick, refugee and migrant rights director at Human Rights Watch. “When detention becomes prolonged and indefinite and untethered from proper oversight, it violates human rights and may amount to torture.” (Source: Human Rights Watch, a non-governmental organization. Headquartered in New York, U.S.)

30 January 2025  American Airlines Flight 5342 was approaching Washington's Reagan National Airport at around 9pm yesterday when the military chopper and plane collided in mid-air, before falling into the Potomac River. The plane held four crew members and 60 passengers, while the helicopter was carrying three soldiers on a 'training flight'. Conspiracy theorists have rushed to social media. Some allege the helicopter appeared to 'chase' the Bombardier plane as it approached for landing. Others have demanded to 'know who was on that passenger plane', suggesting that the incident was a 'targeted hit'. (Source: Daily Mail - United Kingdom)

Thursday, January 30, 2025  At least 28 bodies were pulled from the icy waters of the Potomac River after an American Airlines jet carrying 60 passengers and four crew members collided with an Army helicopter while landing at Ronald Reagan National Airport near Washington DC. (Source: Morning Star - United Kingdom)

Global

30 January 2025  The places that don’t celebrate New Year’s Day - Enkutatash; Losar; Lunar New Year; Nowruz; Nyepi; Songkran - on 1 January. (Source: Geographical - the magazine of the Royal Geographical Society, based in London, United Kingdom)

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