Egyik 19

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 "Tudom, kik és miért lőttek le" - közli Fico Robert, szlovák miniszterelnök

- video -

(magyar szinkronnal, angol nyelvű felirattal)

(Forrás: YouTube / Hetek)

https://tinyurl.com/m45wpcye

(2024. VI. 8.-ig: 42 710 megtekintés.

Kulcsszavak:

Európai Unió    Irak    Kína    Magyarország    NATO    Oroszország    Szlovákia    Ukrajna    Visegrádi országok

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Ukraine
June 4, 2024  Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, is starting to get upset. On June 2, he gave an interview to the Guardian newspaper in which he said Trump risks becoming a 'loser president' if he cuts military aid to Ukraine. Moreover, if Trump imposes what Zelensky called a "bad peace deal" on Ukraine, it would mean the end of the United States as a 'global actor." According to Zelensky, the United States "will no longer be the leader of the world." This is what the former comedian says, who became the president of Ukraine due to a strange election in 2019. He doesn't have a lot of international geopolitical experience on his CV, but Zelenskyy has a go. Trump leads the polls in November. Zelensky is taking a risk, but he knows what the alternative is - Zelensky is trying to drag the United States into direct war with Russia. The Ukrainians actually attacked a massive radar installation (and possibly a second one) deep inside Russia that is part of the ballistic nuclear early warning network. A Ukrainian 'intelligence officer' bragged to Western media in a cavalier tone of someone who had no idea what he was talking about: 'Those radars were Russia's eyes, and we at least partially shut them down." This Ukrainian does not understand what this means. Attacking the early warning system of any nuclear power plant is highly destabilizing, as it can be interpreted as preparation for a nuclear strike. Then when the next administration takes over, there will be no chance of negotiation; those radars, Russia's eyes, will act against US forces. After November, the Biden administration doesn't care. But Ukraine would be a stupid war for America. It is stupid for America in the same way that most wars since the end of the Cold War have been stupid. These were wars of choice, not wars of necessity. And Zelensky drags America into the war - or Zelensky loses. Washington must tell the small bantam cockerel, big attitude, that he must learn to negotiate peace or he will end up in a stew pot. (Source: brusselssignal)

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Magyarország
(Kedd), 2024.01.30.  Berretta: - Másfél hónapja nyomást gyakorolnak Önre az európai partnerei, hogy fogadjon el egy 50 milliárd euro-s segélyezési tervet Ukrajna számára az európai költségvetésből. Csütörtökön mit fog javasolni?
- Semmi nem változott. Tehát a magyar álláspont továbbra is egyértelmű: ahogy telik az idő, továbbra is úgy gondoljuk, hogy az ukrajnai háborúnak nincs katonai megoldása. Sajnos a 26 másik fél még mindig úgy gondolja, hogy van katonai megoldás. Az ő javaslatuk a katonai megoldás irányába mutat, amit én nem támogatok. És a magyaroknak sem tetszik. Mi úgy gondoljuk, hogy az egyetlen megoldás a diplomáciai megoldás. Ez tűzszünetet és béketárgyalásokat jelent. Ebben az összefüggésben arra kérnek bennünket, hogy négy év alatt 50 milliárd euro-t adjunk Ukrajnának. Mivel számunkra nem tetszik a háború eszkalálódása, és nem gondoljuk, hogy a megoldás a csatatéren születik, nem tetszik nekünk ez a javaslat. Jogunk van nem egyetérteni, mert van egy költségvetésünk az Európai Unióban, ami három évvel ezelőtt lett elfogadva a többi országgal együtt, beleértve Magyarországot. Ez az európai költségvetés olyan alap, amelyet mások most meg akarnak változtatni. Úgy gondolom, hogy az Európai Unió minden tagjának joga van megvédeni a költségvetés azon változatát, ahogyan azt létrehozták. Ez egy nagyon is európai álláspont, mivel ezt az európai költségvetést 27 tagállam fogadta el. Az alapvető kérdés ebben az esetben a szuverenitás kérdése. Magyarország, mint szuverén állam ellenzi a költségvetésnek ezt a módosítását. Sajnos egy független országnak ezt a jogát a 26-ok nem fogadják el. Ezért próbálnak minket meggyőzni, majd ezután nyomást gyakorolni, majd zsarolni, hogy rákényszerítsenek, hogy csatlakozzunk hozzájuk. Nagyon nehéz egyedül maradni ebben a családban. Az Európai Unió vagy még inkább az európai egység támogatójaként osztom azt a nézetet, hogy az európai egység érték. Magyarország nem szívesen él a vétójogával, és szavaz mások ellen, mert megértjük, hogy az egység érték. Tehát ez a nagy kihívás, amivel mindannyian szembesülünk: hogyan kerüljünk ki ebből a helyzetből?
- Ön tett egy ajánlatot szombaton…
- Úgy döntöttünk, hogy egy kompromisszumos ajánlatot teszünk: rendben, nem értünk egyet a költségvetés módosításával. Nem értünk egyet azzal, hogy 50 milliárd euro-t kelljen adnunk, ami egy óriási összeg. Nem értünk egyet azzal, hogy ezt négy évre kellene biztosítanunk, és így tovább. De legyen, Magyarország kész részt venni a 27-ek megoldásában, ha garantálják, hogy minden évben döntünk arról, hogy továbbra is küldjük-e ezt a pénzt, vagy sem. És ennek az évenkénti döntésnek ugyanolyan jogalapja kell, hogy legyen, mint ma: egyhangúnak kell lennie. Sajnos ezt az álláspontot egyes országok úgy értik vagy értelmezik, mint egy eszközt arra, hogy minden évben megzsarolják őket.
- Önnek van egy bizonyos múltja ezen a téren…
- A mi álláspontunk az, hogy ez nem a vétóval való zsarolásáról szól, hanem az Európai Unió egységének helyreállításáról és fenntartásáról. Tehát ha valakit arra kényszerítünk, hogy részese legyen valaminek, amit nem szeret, és joga van ahhoz, hogy ne legyen részese, de rá nyomást gyakoroltak, őt kényszerítették bármilyen módon, hogy részese legyen, akkor tisztességes és észszerű, hogy minden évben lehetőséget adjunk neki arra, hogy részt vegyen a döntésben, hogy ez folytatódjon-e, vagy sem. Ez lenne a kompromisszum. Ez a mi álláspontunk.
- És hogyan fogadják jelenleg a javaslatát? Scholz kancellár például?
- Ha jól értem, a fogadtatás a Financial Times-ban jelent meg… Szóval nem éppen pozitív a visszhangja.
- A Financial Times hétfőn valóban közölt egy cikket, amelyben azt állították, hogy az unió vétó esetén úgy büntethetné a magyar gazdaságot, hogy megtagadná Magyarországtól az európai kifizetéseket, ami hatással lenne az Önök országába irányuló befektetésekre és a valutára. Hallott már ilyen tervről?
- Ez egyfajta zsarolási útmutató. Röviden összefoglalva: azt mondják, hogyha szuverén országként viselkedünk, akkor Magyarországot azonnal hatalmas pénzügyi blokád alá veszik, és összekötik az ukrán kérdést a jogállamisággal. A kettőnek semmi köze egymáshoz! Hogy akkor Magyarországon armageddon lenne. Ez áll a Financial Times által közzétett dokumentumban. A dokumentum hitelességében nem kételkedem. Brüsszelt ismerve képesek rá.
- Az Európai Tanács egyik magas rangú tisztviselője a közzététel után egyfajta cáfolatot adott ki, mondván, hogy ez egy Magyarország gazdasági helyzetéről szóló feljegyzés volt, amelyet a tanács főtitkárságának felelőssége mellett készítettek. Nem tudjuk pontosan, hogy miről van szó, de a tanács egyfajta korrekciót tesz közzé…
- Mindannyiunknak van némi tapasztalatunk a nemzetközi politikában. Nem az óvodából jöttünk ki. Ha a Financial Times közöl egy dokumentumot, amiben részletesen leírják a Magyarország elleni pénzügyi blokád és a velünk szembeni zsarolás forgatókönyvét, akkor biztosak lehetünk abban, hogy létezik ilyen. Megértem, hogy ezt a többieknek milyen nehéz elfogadni, hiszen az Európai Unió az elmúlt években egyre inkább imperialista irányba mozdult el, különösen az Egyesült Királyság kilépése után. Egyre kevésbé szuverén államok közösségéről van szó. Egyre többször, függetlenül attól, hogy milyen jogaid vannak a Szerződések alapján, milyen észszerű érvet hozol fel nekik, olyasmire próbálnak rákényszeríteni, amit nem akarsz. Még konkrétabban: Brüsszel az elmúlt években ideológiai háborút vív Magyarország ellen, és folyamatosan zsarolni próbál bennünket. Még a bizottság elnöke is nyilvánosan kijelentette a legutóbbi parlamenti ülésen, hogy Magyarország addig nem kapja meg a neki járó uniós forrásokat, amíg nem hajlandó változtatni a migrációval és a genderrel kapcsolatos álláspontján. Szóval mi ez, ha nem zsarolás? Mi, magyarok hosszú évek óta ilyen körülmények között élünk.
- A másik 26 tagállam azt állítja, hogy egy évente jóváhagyott éves terv nem teszi lehetővé Ukrajnának, hogy négy évre tervezze kiadásait. Ez elfogadható érv az Ön szemében?
- Ez egy olyan érv, amelyet komolyan kell venni, de nem fogadom el. Először is nem tudjuk, mi lesz a következő három-négy hónapban Ukrajnában. Hát még négy év múlva… Másodszor, senki sem tudja, hogy az amerikaiak részt vesznek-e a játékban, akár most, akár a novemberi amerikai választások után. Harmadszor: ki végezte el az összeadást, ki számolt? Miért pont 50 milliárd euro? Nem tudjuk pontosan, hogy ez az összeg minek felel meg. És végül a fő érv, legalábbis egy demokrata számára, hogy öt hónap múlva választások lesznek Európában. Teljesen figyelmen kívül hagynánk az európaiak véleményét, ha ma olyan döntést hoznánk, amely négy évre lekötné Európát, és ez egy óriási összegre vonatkozik. Mintha nem lenne jelentősége az emberek véleményének, bármi legyen is a júniusi európai parlamenti választás eredménye. Ha Európa jogállamiságon alapuló demokratikus közösségként kíván viselkedni, egyszerűen nem hozhatunk ilyen döntést. ***
- Azt tudja, hogy az ukránok számára sürgős…
- Megértem az ukránokat. Szeretnék egy hatalmas összeg garanciáját a lehető leghosszabb ideig. Értem, de ez nem európai érdek. Európában másként kell viselkednünk. Ennyi pénzre az európaiaknak is szükségük van. Európában egyre jobban szenvedünk a gazdaság gyenge teljesítményétől. Ez a pénz nagyon hasznos lenne az európai népeknek, a franciáknak, a németeknek, a magyaroknak, a lengyeleknek… Összességében úgy gondolom, hogy több érv van a mi megoldásunk mellett – évenkénti döntés, a fejlemények függvényében felülvizsgálva –, mint az ellen-oldalnak, akik 50 milliárd euro-t szeretnének egyszerre kiosztani Ukrajnának négy évre.
- Mit válaszol azoknak, akik azt gondolják, hogy legbelül Trump novemberi megválasztását várja, hogy az Ön nézőpontja győzedelmeskedjen? Nagy szövetséges lenne Ön számára…
- Térjünk vissza 2016-ba, az első kampányához, a választások előtt. Akkoriban mindenki azt mondta, hogy a választást Clinton nyeri, nem Trump. Akkoriban világosan megmondtam, hogy Trump-ra szükségünk van Európában. Mert amikor Trump azt mondja, hogy „Tegyük újra naggyá Amerikát” vagy „Amerika az első”, az legitimál minket abban, hogy „Tegyük újra naggyá Európát” és „Európa az első”. Tegyék Európát az első helyre, tegyék Franciaországot az első helyre, és tegyék Magyarországot az első helyre. Ez a normális hozzáállás a nemzetközi politikában, ha nemzeti érdeken alapuló megállapodásokat akarunk találni. Végül nem szabad elfelejtenünk, hogy Trump az Egyesült Államok egyik legsikeresebb külpolitikát folytató elnöke volt. Egyetlen háborút sem indított el. Az Ábrahám-megállapodások volt az egyetlen komoly esély arra, hogy békét, egyensúlyt és elfogadható életformát teremtsünk a nagyon nehéz közel-keleti régióban. Személyes meggyőződésem továbbra is az, hogyha 2022 februárjában Trumpn-ak hívják az amerikai elnököt, nem lett volna háború Európában. Ma nem látok rajta kívül senkit sem Európában, sem Amerikában, aki elég erős vezető lenne ahhoz, hogy megállítsa a háborút. A békének van neve: Trump.
- von der Leyen elnök az Európai Parlamentben egyértelművé tette, hogy mintegy 20 milliárd euro-t nem fizetnek ki Magyarországnak mindaddig, amíg bizonyos problémák fennállnak Magyarországon, mint például a gyermekvédelmi törvény az LMBTQ-személyekkel, a tudományos szabadságot ért csorbák, a csalás elleni küzdelem hiányosságai. Hogyan reagál erre az emlékeztetésre?
- Először is emlékeztetni kell arra, hogy a bizottság három hónappal ezelőtt egyértelműen kijelentette, hogy a magyar közbeszerzésekre vonatkozó szabályozással nincs semmilyen probléma. Ez egy jó szabályozás. Ebből a szempontból Magyarország az EU-tagállamok legjobb első harmadában található. A korrupció elleni küzdelem kudarca tehát már nem egy szilárd érv. Majd a bizottság kimondta, hogy a magyarországi igazságszolgáltatás rendben van. Ezért az Európai Unió legerősebben ellenőrzött és újraértékelt igazságszolgáltatási rendszerével rendelkezünk. Ennek a kifogásnak is vége. De mivel a bizottságot politikai szándék vezérli, mert ideológiai háborút folytat Magyarország ellen, von der Leyen elnöknek új sérelmeket kell kreálnia Magyarország megtámadására és zsarolására. Az új sérelem pedig a migrációra és a genderre vonatkozik. Ennek semmi köze a korrupcióhoz vagy az igazságszolgáltatás minőségéhez, Magyarország ebből a szempontból jól áll. Nyilvánvaló tehát, hogy nem a jogállamiság az igazi érv Magyarország ellen. Nem is beszélve a zsarolási kísérletről, amely azt mondja: ha Magyarország nem adja oda az 50 milliárd euro-t Ukrajnának, akkor megfosztjuk a tanácsi szavazati jogától. Ez egyértelműen tisztességtelen magatartás, mert egy ország jogának megvonásáról csak akkor lehet szavazni, ha probléma van a jogállamisággal. De Ukrajnának semmi köze a jogállamisághoz! Az európai intézmények nem veszik komolyan a jogállamiságot. Ez csak egy eszköz a szuverenitásukat megőrizni óhajtó és saját véleménnyel rendelkező országok zsarolására. Másrészt ez nem jó Magyarországnak, mert mint minden normális ember, mi is szeretjük, ha szeretnek minket. Szeretjük, ha emberként és országként tisztelnek bennünket, amit méltánytalanul megtagadnak Magyarországtól. Ennek ellenére továbbra is úgy gondolom, hogy az európai egység fontos.
- Beszélt Meloni asszonnyal erről a helyzetről?
- Folyamatosan beszélek mindenkivel.
- Támogatja ő Önt?
- Nem, egyedül vagyunk. Számunkra ez elvi kérdés, de a többi 26 ország hatalmi kérdést csinál belőle. Sajnos ez egy nehéz helyzet. Mint tudják, sok-sok éve vagyok az Európai Tanács tagja. Ezekben a bonyolult helyzetekben az a fontos, amit stratégiai nyugalomnak nevezünk: ne ugorj rá mindenre, ami mozog, ne reagálj azonnal, maradj nyugodt. Fontos, hogy az európaiak megértsék, hogy a tagállamok, ha nem értenek egyet olyan kérdésekben, mint a háború, a migráció, a gender, azonnal imperialista reakciót tapasztalnak Brüsszelből, és a zsarolás egy formájának vetik őket alá.
- Európa súlyos mezőgazdasági válságon megy keresztül. Magyarországot érintette az európai piac megnyitása az ukrán termékek előtt. Mit vár a bizottságtól, amelynek júniusig megoldást kell javasolnia?
- Ez a történet megmutatja, hogy a háborútól függetlenül milyen komoly probléma Ukrajna Európa számára. A háború csak rávilágít Ukrajna fontosságára, de a háború nélkül is jelentős kihívást jelent Európa számára Ukrajna, és meg kell értenie, hogy miként közeledjen az Európai Unióhoz. Nagyon óvatosnak kell lennünk, mert Ukrajna hatalmas ország. És Ukrajna közeledése az Európai Unióhoz vagy akár az Európai Unióhoz való csatlakozása katasztrofális hatással lesz, vagy katasztrofális hatással lehetne az európai gazdaságokra, különösen a mezőgazdasági szektorban. Tehát mi történik? Sokat szenvedünk itt Magyarországon, mert szomszéd ország vagyunk, ahogy Lengyelország is. Önök, Franciaországban, messze vannak. Önöket mi védjük, ha szabad így mondanom. A kontinens távol tartja Ukrajnát Önöktől, de előbb-utóbb Franciaországot is eléri az ukrán gazdaság Európai Unióra gyakorolt hatása. És Önök pontosan ugyanúgy szenvedni fognak, mint mi. Nagyon egységesnek kell lennünk, és világosan el kell magyaráznunk az ukránoknak, milyen lépéseket kell tenni annak érdekében, hogy közelítsük feléjük az Európai Uniót és a piacainkat. Az ukrán mezőgazdasági termelés jóval olcsóbb, mint a francia és a magyar gazdáké, és ez nem fenntartható. Nem tudunk versenyezni velük, és tönkretesszük mezőgazdasági közösségeinket. Ezt nem tehetjük meg; az ukránoknak ezt meg kell érteniük. A bizottságnak az európai érdekeket kell megvédenie az ukránokkal szemben, nem pedig az ukrán érdekeket az európai gazdákkal szemben.
(Forrás: miniszterelnok *)
* Miniszterelnöki Kabinetiroda

*** Kiemelés tőlem - J.

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European Parliament
Jan 25, 24  A forecast.     The 2024 European Parliament elections will see a major shift to the right in many countries, with populist radical right parties gaining votes and seats across the EU, and centre-left and green parties losing votes and seats.     We collected the most recent opinion polls in every EU member state and applied a statistical model of the performance of national parties in previous European Parliament elections, building on a model we developed and used for the 2009, 2014, and 2019 elections.        The results show that the two main political groups in the parliament – the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) – will likely continue to lose seats which is resulting in an increasing fragmentation of European party systems, at both the national and European levels.     We expect the EPP to remain the largest group in the parliament, and therefore maintain most agenda-setting power, including over the choice of the next commission president. Our model predicts significant seat losses for the EPP in Germany, Italy, Romania, and Ireland, but significant gains in Spain.     We forecast that the S&D will lose a lot of seats in Germany, and the Netherlands, and will gain most seats in Poland.     The “grand coalition” of the EPP and the S&D is set to lose seats, holding 42 per cent of the total, compared to its current 45 per cent.     We predict that the centrist Renew Europe (RE) group and the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) will also lose seats, falling from 101 to 86 and 71 to 61 respectively. We expect RE to lose most seats in France and Spain, and to make most gains in the Czech Republic and Italy and the G/EFA to lose most seats in Germany, France, and Italy.     Even with the RE group, the “super grand coalition” of the three centrist groups will only hold 54 per cent of the seats, compared to its current 60 per cent - not enough for these three groups to guarantee a winning majority when they vote together.     Almost half the seats will be held by MEPs outside the “super grand coalition” of the three centrist groups.     The Left group should increase their representation from 38 to 44 seats - it will make most gains in Germany, France, and Ireland. In addition, if the Five Star Movement in Italy, which we predict will win 13 seats, decided not to sit with the non-attached (NI) MEPs, it may choose to join either the G/EFA or the Left, which would bolster the number of MEPs sitting to the left of the S&D.     The left coalition – of the S&D, the G/EFA, and the Left – will lose seats, with 33 per cent of the total, compared to the current 35 per cent. And, even if the left coalition can secure the support of RE – which they have done on environmental and social rights issues during the current term – it would hold only 45 per cent of the seats, compared to 50 per cent in the current parliament.     The main winners in the elections will be the populist right. The major winner will be the radical right Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which we expect to gain 40 seats and, with almost 100 MEPs, to emerge as the third largest group in the new parliament.     A centre-right coalition – of the EPP, RE, and the ECR – will likely lose some seats, holding 48 per cent instead of the current 49 per cent. A “populist right coalition” – made up of the EPP, the ECR, and ID – will increase their share of the seats from 43 per cent to 49 per cent.     The majority of the non-attached MEPs are from extreme right parties, meaning that with their support, majority coalitions could form to the right of RE for the first time in the history of the European Parliament. The “pivotal MEP” in the next parliament is likely to be in the EPP group, rather than in the centrist RE (or previously Liberal) group for the first time.     Anti-European populists are likely to top the polls in nine member states (Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia) and come second or third in a further nine countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden). These results will be particularly significant in several member states which will hold national parliament elections soon after the European Parliament election.     We also predict that the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group will gain 18 seats. Our model predicts that the ECR will lose seats in Poland, and gain most seats in Romania and Spain, in addition to Italy. We expect the ECR to pick up a lot of seats in Italy, as a result of Brothers of Italy (FdI) emerging as one of the largest delegations in the European Parliament (with 27 seats). With the expected fall of Forza Italia to only 7 seats, though, the EPP may approach Brothers of Italy to join their group. And, if Fidesz in Hungary (which we expect to win 14 seats) decides to join the ECR rather than to sit with the non-attached MEPs, the ECR could overtake RE and ID and become the third largest group.     It predicts that ID will lose many seats in Italy, with the decline of Lega, but these losses will be offset by significant gains in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Bulgaria, and Austria.     We expect the ECR and ID groups together to account for 25 per cent of MEPs, and have more seats combined than the EPP or the S&D for the first time.     The “EU-critics” on the radical right and radical left will increase dramatically to hold 37 per cent of the seats, compared to 30 per cent in the current parliament. Populist voices, particularly on the radical right, are likely to be louder after the 2024 elections than at any point since the European Parliament was first directly elected in 1979.     A populist right coalition of Christian democrats, conservatives, and radical right MEPs could emerge with a majority for the first time. This ‘sharp right turn’ will affect the foreign policy choices that the EU can make, particularly on environmental issues, where the new majority is likely to oppose ambitious EU action to tackle climate change.         There is uncertainty regarding which political groups some parties will eventually join. There are two types of uncertain parties: (1) those that are not currently represented in the parliament and are not currently members of a European political party (which would automatically determine their group membership); and (2) those that currently have MEPs but might join a different political group in the next parliament. We have already mentioned the three largest parties in this list: Fidesz from Hungary, Brothers of Italy and the Five Star Movement from Italy. Beyond these, there are 25 other parties whose group membership remains uncertain. Together, we predict that these 28 parties will win 122 seats in June 2024, meaning that the eventual sizes of the groups might be somewhat different from those in our forecast. Most of the uncertain parties are those that will sit to the right of the EPP, in either the ECR, ID, or as non-attached MEPs. The likely “sharp right turn” is unlikely to change as a result of changes to these parties’ current or expected group membership. The sizes of the potential coalitions between the political groups in the chamber will benefit the right.         Different coalitions have tended to dominate in different policy areas in 2019-2024:   A centrist grand coalition (EPP + S&D, usually also with RE) typically won on budgets, budgetary control, culture and education, economic and monetary affairs, foreign affairs, internal market and consumer protection, legal affairs, and transport and tourism;   A centre + left coalition (S&D + RE+ G/EFA + the Left) usually won on civil liberties and justice and home affairs, development, employment and social affairs, environment, and women’s rights and gender equality;   A centre + right coalition (EPP + RE + ECR, and sometimes ID) usually won on agriculture and rural development, fisheries, industry and research, and international trade.   These coalitions and winning patterns are likely to continue, at least at the start of the next parliamentary term.          EU support for Ukraine - the majority in the next European Parliament is likely to back a continuation of the type of financial, logistical, and military aid that Western states have been approving for Kyiv since February 2022. However, there will be a larger number of MEPs (particularly in ID and among the non-attached MEPs) who are more sympathetic towards Russia. Support for Ukraine in the rest of the parliament might also soften as national parties start to respond to the changing opinions of their voters, expressed by their votes in the European Parliament elections.         Our analysis suggests two significant shifts in coalition patterns.     Firstly, the smaller size of the centrist grand coalition, even with RE support, is likely to mean that it will no longer be as dominant on some policy issues. In particular on economic and monetary affairs and internal market and consumer protection – where the grand coalition has won votes in the current parliament by smaller margins – we could see a significant shift to the right, as the EPP looks to partners to its right rather than to the S&D. Given the Euroscepticism of the ECR and ID, and some national parties in the EPP, we could therefore see majorities in the next parliament in support of more economic, fiscal, and regulatory freedom for member states. This bloc would be likely to vote against proposals from the commission to enforce common rules and instead side with the growing group of national governments – such as those in Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden – which are pushing for less interference from Brussels in national economic, fiscal, and regulatory policies.     Secondly, the smaller number of MEPs on the left relative to the right means that in several policy areas in which the left has tended to win by small margins, a right-wing majority will now be more likely to win than a left-wing majority. This is likely to be particularly true in two areas – civil liberties and justice and home affairs, and environment – where narrow centre-left majorities may be replaced by a new populist right winning coalition (of EPP + ECR + ID + most non-attached MEPs). On civil liberties and justice and home affairs, this could have major implications for EU migration and asylum policies, where there is likely to be a majority in the European Parliament that supports very restrictive immigration policies and will seek to push the commission to reform the EU’s asylum policy framework to allow more discretion for member states and to limit any sharing of refugee allocations.     This new winning majority on civil liberties and justice and home affairs could also have implications for the EU’s efforts to enforce the rule of law. In the current parliament there has been a narrow majority in favour of the EU imposing sanctions (such as withholding budget payments) on member states in which the rule of law is backsliding – in particular in Hungary and Poland. But after June 2024 it is likely to be harder for the centrist and centre-left MEPs (in RE, S&D, G/EFA, the Left, and parts of EPP) to hold the line against the 'continued erosion of democracy, rule of law, and civil liberties' in Hungary and any other member state that might head in that direction.     The biggest policy implications of the 2024 European Parliament elections are likely to concern environmental policy. In the current parliament, a centre-left coalition (of S&D, RE, G/EFA, and the Left) has tended to win on environmental policy issues, but many of these votes have been won by very small margins. The significant shift to the right in the new parliament will mean that an ‘anti-climate policy action’ coalition is likely to dominate. This would significantly undermine the EU’s Green Deal framework and the adoption and enforcement of common policies to meet the EU’s net zero targets. Perhaps the best illustration of this is what would have happened if the key vote on the EU’s nature restoration law was held after the 2024 elections. The law forces member states to restore at least 20 per cent of the EU’s land and seas by 2030, with binding targets to restore at least 30 per cent of degraded habitats by 2030, rising to 60 per cent by 2040 and 90 per cent by 2050. The key vote was on 12 July 2023, on a motion by the EPP to reject the commission’s proposal outright. The proposal to reject failed by only 12 votes (312 in favour, 324 against), and the parliament then went on to accept the commission’s proposal, with a series of votes against amendments from the groups on the right to water down the proposed actions. The dramatic increase in the number of MEPs to the right of the EPP is likely to seriously limit the EU’s actions to tackle the climate crisis.         The European Parliament elections will not only have implications for politics and policy at the EU level, they will also have an impact on domestic politics in many countries. The European Parliament elections are essentially 27 national elections, and the national debates that take place in the run-up to the June 2024 elections will affect the positions that the heads of state or government feel able to take in the months and years that follow the elections. If political parties campaign on a platform to block certain EU decisions, or the way the citizens in a country have voted in the European Parliament elections is perceived to demand a tougher mandate on immigration, a “no” to further EU enlargement, or a vote against the EU’s Green Deal agenda, this will influence the national governments’ approaches to EU policymaking after the 2024 elections.     The 2024 European Parliament election in Austria will come just a few months before the next national election, which is set for autumn 2024. If the two mainstream parties – the centre-right People’s Party of Austria (ÖVP) and the centre-left Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) – continue to haemorrhage support, the radical right Freedom Party (FPÖ) could convert the success of the anti-system change vote into a national electoral victory.     Bulgaria has experienced five parliamentary elections since the beginning of 2021. This level of instability has contributed to the rapid acceleration of the anti-system vote, which the far-right and pro-Russia party, Revival, has greatly benefitted from: it won 14 per cent in the last election in 2023, making it the third largest party. If Revival wins three seats in the European Parliament election, as we predict, it will enter the European Parliament for the first time, gaining institutional legitimacy as Bulgaria’s mainstream parties continue to lose their own legitimacy - after holding its fifth national election in two years, Bulgaria is still nowhere near forming a stable government.     In France, the latest government led by President Macron is currently hovering at a 30 per cent approval rating. It will be French voters’ first opportunity to express this disapproval electorally and the first test for the French left after the break-up of the New Ecological and Social People’s Union (NUPES). There is every chance that Le Pen’s radical right National Rally (RN) will win the election. This would set the tone for the 2027 presidential election and could establish Le Pen as the potential next French president.     In Germany, the European Parliament election is likely to see the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) become the second largest German party in the European Parliament, behind a re-emergent Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU). The election will also be the first test for the new anti-immigrant radical left Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). The next German parliamentary elections will be held in autumn 2025. The continued polarisation of German politics will therefore be a major concern for the centrist parties, and the CDU/CSU will be under pressure to say whether they would be willing to enter a coalition with the AfD.     In Italy, the European Parliament election will be the first electoral test for the new government led by prime minister Giorgia Meloni, as well as the new leaders of Forza Italia (led by deputy prime minister Tajani) and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) led by Schlein. A decisive victory for Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, at the expense of its two coalition partners (Forza Italia and the League), would establish Brothers of Italy as the dominant party on the right in Italy. With voters on the left split between PD, the Five Star Movement, and the centrist parties, it remains to be seen whether these elections can establish a path forward for the left in Italy.     In the Netherlands, it is far from certain whether a government will be in place by the time of the European Parliament election or whether the country will be heading towards another national election. Wilders’s (PVV) is set to emerge as the largest Dutch party in the European Parliament, while Omzigt’s New Social Contract (NSC) will win MEPs for the first time. A decisive victory for these two parties could encourage them to form a coalition together. The combined Green-Left (PvdA-Groen Links) list may raise questions about the viability of this alliance going forward.     In Poland, the European Parliament election will be an opportunity to see whether Polish voters have sustainably turned away from the populist right Law and Justice party (PiS). We expect PiS to top the poll in Poland in June 2024 with 31 per cent of the votes and the centrist European Coalition (KE) alliance to come second with 24 per cent of the votes, closing the gap between it and PiS even further. The new centrist Third Way (TD) should win MEPs for the first time, further consolidating its position as a key ally of KE in a post-PiS Poland. The radical right is expected taking votes from PiS.     In Spain, the European Parliament election will be a referendum on prime minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Party (PSOE) government and the deal Sánchez made with the Catalan nationalists to win the premiership after the July 2023 national election. We expect a significant backlash against Sánchez and his deal, with the centre-right People’s Party (PP) emerging as the clear winner and with the radical right Vox winning 10 per cent of the votes. The new Sumar alliance of the radical left and the greens is set to lose votes.     Sweden is likely seeing a further consolidation of support for Andersson’s centre-left Swedish Social Democratic Party (SAP), following its re-emergence as the largest party after the September 2022 national election. The radical right Sweden Democrats (SD) look set to come second in the poll, mainly at the expense of the centre-right Moderata, which is likely to be punished for tacitly supporting Andersson’s minority government.         While the parliament is not the most significant EU institution when it comes to foreign policy, the way in which the political groups align after the elections, and the impact that these elections have on national debates in member states, will have significant implications for the European Commission’s and Council’s ability to make foreign policy choices, most notably in implementing the next phase of the European Green Deal. The implications of this vote are far reaching for the geopolitical direction of the European Council and European Commission from 2024 onwards. The next European Parliament can be expected to block legislation necessary to implement the politically difficult next phase of the Green Deal – impacting the EU’s climate sovereignty – and push for a harder line on key issues for other areas of EU sovereignty including migration, enlargement, and support for Ukraine.          National governments will feel constrained by the way these elections shape domestic debates, affecting the positions they can take in the European Council. This is likely to bolster the growing axis of governments around the European Council table that are attempting to limit the EU’s influence from within – those of Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, Sweden, and likely a PVV-led government in the Netherlands.         These findings should also be set against the expectation that whether or not Trump wins the US presidential election in autumn 2024 – and the polls currently suggest there is a real possibility he will. Europe will have a less globally engaged United States to rely on. This may increase the inclination of anti-establishment and Eurosceptic parties to reject strategic interdependence and a broad range of international partnerships in defence of European interests and values, instead seeking to pursue a more cautious approach to foreign policy decisions.

Note:
Forecast by political group and member state:

Hungary:

Total: 21 (MPPs):    EPP: 0;    S&D: 4;    ID: 0;    RE: 1;    ECR: 0;    G/EFA: 0;    Left: 0;    NI: 16".

Forecast vote share by member state, 2024:

Party     Forecast vote share;     Forecast MEPs;     Difference Expected;     EP group
Fidesz       43.9%                                   14                                    1                     NI
DK            13.1%                                     4                                    0                  S&D
MHM           6.2%                                     2                                    2                     NI
MM             5.8%                                     1                                  −1                     RE
MKKP          5.0%                                     0                                    0                     0
MSZP          4.6%                                     0                                  −1                     0
LMP            3.8%                                     0                                    0                      0
Jobbik         3.5%                                     0                                  −1                     0
PM              2.3%                                     0                                    0                     0

(Parties:    Fidesz-Magyar Polgári Szövetség;    Demokratikus Koalició;    Mi Hazánk Mozgalom;    Momentum Mozgalom;    Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt;    Magyar Szocialista Párt;    Lehet Más a Politika;    Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom;    Párbeszéd - A Zöldek Pártja).

(Source: ecfr *)
* European Council on Foreign Relations (Berlin, Germany)

..

.

Europe

Germany
12/31/2023  Krisenmodus, the state of German foreign policy. "In 2024, Germany's foreign policy will work in crisis mode'. 'Berlin must find ways to deal with two wars, an increasingly aggressive China, and a world order in transition'. The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas - which is classified as a terrorist organization by Germany, the European Union, the US and other governments - is only the latest major crisis, albeit currently the most dramatic. The conflict could spread, with potentially devastating consequences. Germany is involved in discussions about how the Middle East should look after the end of the war. Like the EU and the US government, Germany remains committed to the idea of a two-state solution - a Palestinian state alongside the Israeli state. In an exclusive interview with DW in November, Foreign Minister Baerbock lamented the violence carried out by Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank against Palestinians. "The Israeli prime minister must condemn this settler violence, it must be prosecuted, and this is also in the interests of Israel's security,' she said. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has challenged German and European diplomats. Germany, along with other Western countries, has provided extensive military assistance, but still, almost two years later, Ukraine has made little progress in recapturing Russian-occupied territories. The willingness to provide military assistance to Ukraine is now eroding even in the United States, by far its most important ally. Kiesewetter, a Bundestag member with the center-right opposition Christian Democrats (CDU), believes that all talk of negotiating a solution is dangerous and that a military victory in Ukraine is possible. 'It is the West that has hampered the liberation campaign because too little has been supplied too late," he recently wrote. The strategy, he said, must be: 'Supply everything [in arms] as quickly as possible.' As the West grows weary of war, politicians are now under pressure to think about ending the war at the negotiating table. Political scientist Varwick from the University of Halle believes this is inevitable anyway. "After a cease-fire, I think come difficult diplomatic negotiations over territorial changes in Ukraine, and over Ukraine's neutrality - all of which should be on the table," Varwick told. Much has changed in relations between China and Germany since Angela Merkel was chancellor from 2005 to 2021. In contrast to Merkel's 'delicate handling of the Chinese government' in the interest of trade policy, the strategy paper issued this summer by the current governing center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) called China a "partner, competitor and systemic rival" for Germany and the EU. But recently, Berlin has increasingly emphasized the rivalry. The German government is concerned about China's saber-rattling toward Taiwan, which China regards as a secessionist province, and about China's close relationship with Russia despite its war on Ukraine. Yet China has been Germany's most important trading partner since 2016. This is why the German government's China strategy does not focus on disentangling the two economies, as this would cause too much damage in Germany, but rather on efforts to reduce its one-sided economic dependencies on China. The limits of a foreign policy based on values, as advocated by Baerbock, are particularly evident in the case of China. In April, the then-Chinese Foreign Minister Qin responded to Baerbock's plea for greater respect of human rights: 'What China needs least of all is a schoolmaster from the West." 'In a world in which the liberal West is coming under pressure, enemies are easy to make if you constantly insist on values,' wrote journalist Freidel on November 30. "That doesn't mean that values are dispensable. It just means that they shouldn't be constantly bandied about." Freidel said Germany should 'rather formulate interests." Hoff of the German Council on Foreign Relations, takes a more positive view of the German government's foreign policy. "If we completely ignore values, as we did with Russia, then this will have catastrophic consequences, and we are seeing this in Ukraine,' he told. The war in Ukraine has taught the German government a lesson: In the global search for allies willing to support sanctions against Russia, numerous developing and emerging countries have turned their backs - intent on continuing trade with Moscow. Countries that are normally aligned with the West, such as India and Brazil, "are finding new leeway in this changing world order by exercising their freedom not to take sides," said Hoff. Germany, Europe's strongest and the world's fourth-largest economy, is expected to play a more active role on the global stage, not least by the US and the EU. This does not seem to be very popular with most Germans, according to a survey conducted by the nonprofit Körber Foundation in September. Germany should be more restrained when it comes to international crises, 54% of respondents said. Only 38% wanted to see greater involvement - the lowest figure since the surveys began in 2017, when it stood at 52%. A whopping 71% of respondents were against Germany taking a leading military role in Europe. Germans want one thing above all else: Respite from the turbulence of world politics. (dw)

European Council
December 31, 2023  Bulgaria, Romania, both EU members since 2007, get official green light for partial entry into Schengen area, which comprises 27 countries and grants free movement to more than 400 million EU citizens. EU member countries reached agreement yesterday on removing air and maritime internal border controls with Bulgaria and Romania as of March 31. “A further decision should be taken by the Council to establish a date for the lifting of checks at internal land borders,” the Council of the EU said. Austria had opposed the inclusion of Romania and Bulgaria in the Schengen zone due to concerns over illegal immigration. But in mid-December, Austrian Interior Minister Karner announced a softening of Vienna’s stance, offering passport-free travel by plane from those countries in exchange for tighter border security measures. The Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU hammered out the final agreement late yesterday, just before the government in Madrid passes the baton to Belgium. “A decision by the Council on this matter is expected to be taken within a reasonable time frame,” the European Commission said in a statement. (Source: politico)

Russia
31-Dec-2023  What will happen in Ukraine in 2024? Israel's war with Hamas has captured the attention of the world's media over the past two months, but in Ukraine a near two-year long conflict is continuing with no end in sight. Russia labeled it a special operation aimed at ridding Nazism from Ukraine and reclaiming land it lost following the disbandment of the Soviet Union. It was expected that Ukraine would be quickly overwhelmed by the firepower of Russia's military, but with help from Western countries, Ukraine has showed resolve. Ukraine has received huge financial backing from the West, particularly from the United States. After weathering Russia's early attack, support from Western allies in the form of military and financial aid saw Ukraine fight back. The U.S. has pledged €43.9 billion ($55.9 billion) to Ukraine between February 2022 and October 2023. Ukraine had also received €5.6 billion ($7.1 billion) from the EU over the same time period. But that level of support is putting pressure on the purse strings of Western countries. There are fears if aid dries up, Ukraine will fold to the military might of Russia. Now, with a third year of fighting fast approaching, Russia and Ukraine's conflict has ground to a standstill, but looks set to continue well into 2024 and beyond. As it stands, Russia currently occupies roughly 15 percent of Ukraine's territory, having formally annexed four regions: Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk in September 2022. Ukraine's counter-offensive has stalled and Russia has struggled to make any further advancements. For Ukraine's soldiers on the frontline, there is little sign of an end to the fighting, with the conflict set to continue for many months and even years to come. "Russia wins by not losing," Shea, a former NATO official and now professor of strategy and security at the University of Exeter, said. He believes Russia is committed to a lengthy battle that could go on for years. "Putin is clearly in for the long haul. He made that clear during his press conference. He said that the initial Russian war aims, which is to demilitarize the Nazi for Ukraine have not changed. So that suggests that Putin is not prepared at this stage, at least, to go for a more limited victory in terms of simply hanging onto the 17 percent of Ukraine that Russia has occupied and annexed. He wants the whole lot, including the downfall of the Zelenskyy regime." "The problem, of course, is that we now have this potential Ukraine fatigue from both America and the EU simultaneously," says Shea. "Hungary has blocked €50bn ($55bn; £43bn) in EU aid for Ukraine. America could say, 'look the EU is doing less' and (if they reduce aid), the EU could say 'America isn't in the fight anymore, why should we care about this more than them?'" Earlier this week, the White House approved another tranche of US military aid to Ukraine worth some $250m. Zelenskyy has ruled out talks with Moscow until it withdraws from territories it has occupied since February 2022. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov restated Russia's complaint that Ukraine was unwilling to hold peace talks to end the 22-month-old conflict in Ukraine, which Moscow calls a 'special military operation'. "His representatives think only in categories of war and resort to totally aggressive rhetoric. There is no consideration of holding peace talks... Draw your own conclusions," Lavrov told Tass. Finances could play a key role in Russia's military ambitions in Ukraine in 2024, too, Shea explained. "Russia, believe it or not, is now spending as a proportion of its GDP more on defense than the Soviet Union did. Soviet Union 14 percent, Russia now 20 percent." All of this defense spending over the long run is going to cause a lot of inflation, reduce Russian living standards, he added. (Source: cgtn *)
* China Global Television Network

Sunday, 31 Dec 2023  Fighting between Russia and Ukraine has intensified over the past week amid speculations that the war has reached a stalemate. Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out a “terrorist attack” yesterday on civilians in the city of Belgorod, including using controversial cluster munitions in strikes that killed at least 22 people and wounded dozens more. In an emergency meeting at the UN Security Council, demanded by Russia, envoy Nebenzya claimed Kyiv targeted a sports centre, an ice rink and a university. “[It was a] deliberate, indiscriminate attack against a civilian target,” Nebenzya said yesterday. Moscow said the attack would “not go unpunished”. At least 40 people were killed on Friday in one of Russia’s biggest attacks on Ukraine since its invasion nearly two years ago. Nebenzya defended the attacks saying Moscow had targeted only military infrastructure and that Ukraine’s air defence systems were responsible for civilian casualties. While support for Ukraine remains robust among Western countries, further military assistance has met growing pushback by conservative political forces in the US and Europe. The United States, Ukraine’s biggest single-country donor, has sent more than $40bn in aid since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. But right-wing congressional Republicans have expressed increasing scepticism towards approving more funds for Ukraine. Congress could continue to hold up the money. The impasse over US aid to Kyiv is mirrored in the European Union, where Hungary is blocking a 50 billion euro ($55bn) aid package. The bloc is due to revisit the issue in January. Difficulties in securing the funds in Washington and Brussels have raised concerns in Kyiv that Western backers are experiencing “fatigue” with the drawn-out battle, as fighting on the front line becomes bogged down. Zelenskyy has noted that Kyiv’s “foreign policy will be active' with many international activities in January. In a new wave of drone and missile attacks in days, Russia says it has targeted Ukrainian military sites in the capital Kyiv and Kharkiv, in retaliation for a deadly attack a day earlier on the city of Belgorod. Today the Russian defence ministry said it had struck “decision-making centres and military installations” in the northeastern city of Kharkhiv, after Kyiv said that residential buildings, a hotel and cafes had been hit. Russia launched ‘most massive attack’ since start of Ukraine war. In the first wave of overnight attacks, at least six missiles hit Kharkiv, Ukraine’s National Police said today. Most drones were aimed at Ukraine’s first line of defence as well as at civilian, military and infrastructure in the Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia regions, the Ukrainian Air Force said, adding that it destroyed 21 out of 49 attack drones. Closer to midnight, as part of a wider bombardment of Ukraine that also targeted Kyiv, several waves of Russian drones hit residential buildings in Kharkiv’s centre, spouting fires, Terekhov, Mayor of Kharkiv said. In his New Year’s Eve address today, President Putin said Russia would “never back down' praising his country’s military personnel. “We have repeatedly proved that we are able to solve the most difficult tasks and will never retreat, because there is no force that can separate us,” Putin said. “To all those who are on duty, on the front line of the fight for truth and justice," Putin said, “you are our heroes. Our hearts are with you. We are proud of you, we admire your courage.” (Source: aljazeera)
Photo: A view shows the Kharkiv Palace Hotel heavily damaged by a Russian missile strike.

2023. dec. 31.  Russia pounded Kharkiv in the hours leading into New Year's Eve, hitting residential buildings, hotels and medical facilities, Ukrainian officials said. Russia said the attacks were retaliation for Ukraine’s 'indiscriminate" attack on Belgorod. Video. (Source: reuters): http://tinyurl.com/5btckbtk
Note: 323 733 views between 31 December 2023 - 7 January 2024

Ukraine
Sunday, December 31, 2023  On Friday, Russia launched its biggest air assault since February 2022. Ukrainian officials said Russia killed at least 41 civilians, wounded at least 160, and left an unknown number buried in the rubble across Ukraine in a barrage that included 158 missile and drone attacks. The United Nations Security Council met Friday at the request of Ukraine and three dozen other U.N. member states. Security Council members condemned Russia's barrage. The Ukrainian news outlet RBC-Ukraine quoted unnamed sources as saying Ukrainian forces hit military targets in Belgorod in retaliation to the Friday's massive Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities. Russia's Defense Ministry said at least 21 people, including three children, were killed and at least 110 injured in yesterday's Ukrainian strikes on Belgorod. Russia requested a meeting yesterday of the U.N. Security Council on what it called Ukraine's indiscriminate attacks on Belgorod and alleged Ukraine had used cluster bombs. Yesterday, Russia said it downed 32 Ukrainian drones. In Moscow, officials said air defenses shot down drones over Moscow, Bryansk, Oryol and Kursk regions. The Defense Ministry reported a number of casualties, including a child. Russian missile and drone strikes continued yesterday. Ukraine reported shooting down Iranian-made Shahed drones in the Kherson, Khmelnytskyi and Mykolaiv regions. Ukraine was also fighting back a Russian drone attack yesterday in Kyiv. Missiles hit in Kharkiv and in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Chernihiv regions, killing three people. Two Russian missiles hit central Kharkiv yesterday, injuring at least 21 people, Ukrainian officials said, in the latest in a recent series of back-and-forth air assaults. Russia's attacks on Kharkiv came after Ukrainian airstrikes earlier yesterday hit the Russian city of Belgorod, which sits just over the border with Ukraine. The Kharkiv Palace hotel was damaged by a Russian missile attack in Kharkiv. Looking ahead to 2024, President Zelenskyy said in his daily address yesterday that Ukraine is "preparing to produce more weapons next year.' The British Defense Ministry said yesterday in its daily intelligence update on Ukraine that the daily number of Russian casualties in Ukraine, dead and wounded, has risen by almost 300% per day, compared with last year. The increase in the number of casualties was reported to the British ministry by Ukraine. On the last day of the year, Ukraine’s air force said it shot down 21 of 49 Russian drones. (Source: voanews *)
* Voice of America

Asia

China
31/12/2023  China’s 'reunification' with Taiwan is inevitable, President Xi said in his New Year’s address today, striking a stronger tone than he did last year with less than two weeks to go before the Chinese-claimed island elects a new leader. “The reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability,' Xi said, though the official English translation of his remarks published by the Xinhua news agency used a more simple phrase: “China will surely be reunified'. China has never renounced the use of force to bring it under Chinese control, though Xi made no mention of military threats in his speech carried on state television. “Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,' he added. The official English translation wrote “all Chinese' rather than “compatriots'. Last year, Xi said only that people on either side of the strait are 'members of one and the same family' and that he hoped people on both sides will work together to “jointly foster lasting prosperity of the Chinese nation'. The defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war with Mao’s communists who founded the People’s Republic of China. The Republic of China remains Taiwan’s formal name. The Jan. 13 presidential and parliamentary elections are happening at a time of fraught relations between Beijing and Taipei. China has been ramping up military pressure to assert its sovereignty claims over democratically governed Taiwan. Current Vice President Lai, the presidential candidate for Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Party (DPP) leading in opinion polls by varying margins says only Taiwan’s people can decide their future, as does Lai’s main opponent in the election, Hou, from Taiwan’s largest opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT traditionally favours close ties with China but strongly denies being pro-Beijing. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said Lai had “exposed his true face as a stubborn ‘worker for Taiwan independence’ and destroyer of peace across the Taiwan Strait' saying he is a dangerous separatist. 'His words were full of confrontational thinking,' spokesperson Chen said. Hou has also denounced Lai as an independence supporter. Since 2016 - when President Tsai took office - the DPP-led government has promoted separatism and is the 'criminal mastermind' in obstructing exchanges across the strait and 'damaging the interests of Taiwan’s people', Chen said. Lai said yesterday that the Republic of China and People’s Republic of China “are not subordinate to each other”, wording he and Tsai have used previously which has also riled Beijing. Tsai and Lai have repeatedly offered talks with China, but have been rebuffed. (Source: france24)

Gaza
31 December, 2023  Following Hamas' surprise October incursion, Israel launched a full-scale attack in Gaza, displacing nearly all its 2.3 million residents and killing at least 21,672 Palestinians, according to health authorities in Gaza, with more than 56,000 injured and thousands more feared dead under the rubble. The conflict has sparked concerns it could spread across the region, potentially involving Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen that have exchanged fire with Israel and its U.S. ally, or targeted merchant shipping. Israel cited progress in destroying Hamas infrastructure, including a tunnel complex in the basement of one of the houses of the Hamas leader for Gaza, Sinwar, in Gaza City. Troops also raided the Hamas military intelligence headquarters and an Islamic Jihad command centre in Khan Younis, and destroyed targets including a weapons foundry. Hamas and Islamic Jihad issued statements saying their fighters destroyed and damaged several Israeli tanks and troop carriers in attacks across Gaza yesterday. They also said they fired mortars against Israeli forces in Khan Younis and Al-Bureij as well as in northern Gaza. Israel says 172 of its military personnel have been killed in the Gaza fighting. Hamas media reported yesterday that Maali, a senior member of the group's armed wing, was killed in an Israeli strike in Gaza. It said Maali, originally from the West Bank, was freed during a 2011 prisoner swap and expelled to Gaza. The reports did not specify when he was killed. Residents and medics said yesterday's fighting was focused in al-Bureij, Nuseirat, Maghazi and Khan Younis in central and southern Gaza. Israeli military forces pressed ahead with an offensive that the prime minister reiterated will last "for many more months.' "The war is at its height," Netanyahu told yesterday. He added the Philadelphi Corridor buffer zone that runs along Gaza's border with Egypt must be in Israeli hands. "It must be shut," Netanyahu said. "It is clear that any other arrangement would not ensure the demilitarisation that we seek." Such a move by Israel would be a de facto reversal of its 2005 withdrawal from Gaza, placing the enclave under exclusive Israeli control after years being run by Hamas. Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas but its targeting and killing of tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza is increasingly being described as a genocide. (Source: newarab *)
* English version of a London-based pan-Arab news outlet owned by a Qatari media company.

Syria
Sunday - 31 December 2023  Israel is now seeking to weaken Iranian supply lines. Military developments are now escalating in Syria. Iran is stepping up its efforts to transfer weaponry. It is sending arms through Damascus Airport, which indicates an urgent and ongoing need for supplying its proxies, as using other routes could take longer. Damascus Airport is going in and out of service. The Israelis continue to target Damascus Airport to disrupt the supply of arms, and they will continue to escalate their targeting of influential Iranian leaders, constantly seeking bigger and more important targets, as seen in the attack on Mousavi in Damascus, as well as targeting Hezbollah's arms depots. All of that tells us Israel’s escalation cannot be separated from the war in Gaza. Israel’s escalating attacks on Syrian territory are not an extension of its consistent attacks, rather, they are part of the Israelis’ preparations for a new war on Lebanon, which could either be launched during its war on Gaza or immediately afterward. The name of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps official whom Israel recently assassinated in Syria, Mousavi, is the obvious headline of the story. The Iranians say he was tasked with managing IRGC supply lines. Israel's targeting of Mousavi, who has played prominent roles in Syria, is essentially aimed at disrupting Iranian supply lines sending equipment from Tehran to Lebanon, and thus to Hezbollah, and before it, other militias in Damascus and its surroundings. It is preparing to target Hezbollah, as well as other Iranian militias, to weaken them before the war in Lebanon breaks out. The pretexts are already available to the Israelis, who demand that Hezbollah militia men stay away from the Israeli border, as stipulated by UN Resolution 1701, and claim that they will ensure this happens either through negotiations or war. 'Israel’s motives are clear and easy to understand. The longer wars last, whether they are in Gaza or if one breaks out on the Lebanese borders, the better Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s chances of remaining in power. Netanyahu was dead politically, and he was awaiting imprisonment, the final nail in the coffin. However, the repercussions of the October 7th operation carried out by Hamas and the factions allied to it have extended his political life. He is now trying to emerge from this crisis as a national hero, after having been a corrupt politician'. Thus, we see tense and contradictory statements coming out of Iran as Israel escalates. Hezbollah, especially Nasrallah, remains silent. He has not said a word because he knows what is coming and that if a war erupts, it will be different from those that preceded it. If this war is waged, it would be a war of survival for both Netanyahu and Nasrallah. Netanyahu wants to escape his inevitable fate of imprisonment, and Nasrallah is trying to preserve what remains of Iran's prestige and its influence in Syria. (Source: aawsat *)
* Asharq Al-Awsat - Arabic international newspaper headquartered in London.

Red Sea
Sunday, December 31, 2023  Attacks on shipping vessels claimed by the Houthi rebels have increased since Israel declared war on militant group Hamas on Oct. 7. Yesterday, the U.S. shot down two anti-ship ballistic missiles that were fired by Houthi rebels toward he Maersk Hangzhao container ship on the Red Sea, CENTCOM said today. The Maersk Hangzhao said they were struck by a missile earlier yesterday, according to CENTCOM. Early today morning U.S. helicopters from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier and the Gravely responded to the distress call issued by the container ship Maersk Hangzhao - the second distress call the ship issued in less than 24 hours due to "being under attack by four Iranian-backed Houthi small boats." The boats, which originated from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, fired at the Maersk Hangzhao and attempted to board the vessel after getting within 20 meters of the container ship. A contract-embarked security team on the ship returned fire, the central command said. Following the another attack on the merchant ship as tensions continue to rise in the region, the U.S. Navy helicopters were starting to give out warnings to the attackers, when the Houthi-controlled small boat crews opened fire on the helicopters with crew-served weapons and small arms. "The U.S. Navy helicopters returned fire in self-defense," CENTCOM said. The United States sunk three of the four small boats and killed the crews, CENTCOM said. The fourth boat fled the area. No U.S. forces were injured and there was no damage to U.S. equipment. "This is the 23rd illegal attack by the Houthis on international shipping since Nov. 19," CENTCOM said.
(Source: thestate *)
* The State - American daily newspaper published in Columbia, South Carolina.

North America

United States
December 31, 2023  Republicans have a great chance to retake the Senate in 2024. There are 34 Senate races in 2024. Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents occupy 23 of the seats, eight of which are rated competitive or vulnerable by Inside Elections, a nonpartisan publication that analyzes House and Senate races. Republicans are only defending 11 seats, all of them in states won by Trump in 2020. Of those, only the Texas seat held by Sen. Cruz is rated competitive. “The Senate majority is firmly in play, and Republicans have a great opportunity to win control of the Senate,” said Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections. “But we’ve seen Republicans throw away opportunities before.'    In Arizona, former local TV news anchor Lake, a Republican is still contesting the results of her 2022 loss for governor.    In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Brown is defending the seat he has held since 2007. Ohio passed an Amendment for Abortion Rights on November 7, 2023. The amendment will take effect in 30 days, per Ohio law. Upon its enactment, it would prohibit limits on abortion before fetal viability. Any prohibitions on abortion after fetal viability – generally accepted as between 22-24 weeks gestation but would be determined by an individual’s doctor – would not apply should the pregnant person’s health or life be at risk. Gov. DeWine – who signed the six-week abortion ban into law – has long opposed abortion access. Secretary of State LaRose, who is also running for U.S. Senate, was among the most vocal opponents of the abortion amendment, even before it was placed on the ballot.    In West Virginia, a state that Trump won by almost 39 percentage points in 2020, when last month centrist Democratic Sen. Manchin decided not to run for re-election, Democrats’ hopes of keeping their 51-49 Senate majority took a hit. Trump has endorsed Republican Gov. Justice in West Virginia’s Republican primary. Justice is dominating polling against Republican Rep. Mooney. The winner of the GOP primary is expected to cruise to victory in the November general election. With West Virginia seen as off the table, the battle for the Senate is centered on Montana, where Democratic Sen. Tester is running for a fourth term, and Ohio.    Trump won Montana by 16 percentage points and Ohio by 8 percentage points in 2020. "Those races might not even matter. If Republicans successfully defend all their current seats and win Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, as expected, and if the party’s nominee also wins the White House, Republicans will control the Senate in 2024, thanks to the new vice president’s tiebreaking vote, without picking up any other seats". (Source: wsj)

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Orbán Viktor nemzetközi sajtótájékoztatója

Budapest, 2023. XII. 21.

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(Forrás: infostart):

http://tinyurl.com/yc6s8k78

Kulcsszavak:

alkotmány    Argentína    Atlanti Óceán    Bulgária    Csehország    Dubaj   Első világháború    Egyesült Államok    Európa    Európai Bizottság    Európai Bíróság    Európai Parlament    Európai Tanács    Európai Unió    Felvidék    Finland    Franciaország    Horvátország    Izrael    Kárpátalja    kommunista    Krím    Lengyelország    Magyarország    Második világháború    NATO    Németország    Parlament    Románia    Russia    Schengeni övezet    Sweden    Szerbia    Szlovákia    Szovjetunió    Turkey    Ukrajna    ünnep    Visegrádi országok    video

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Europe

Hungary
December 1, 2023  'The oligarchization of the economy, in my opinion, is much broader than most Hungarians realise." Hungary is not following a state capitalism model. It is not the state itself that owns most strategic assets, but businessmen close to the party in power, Fidesz. This is closer to the Putin playbook, creating a class of oligarchs that controls the commanding heights of the economy (banks, telecom interests, utilities, highway concessions, waste management, etc.) right down to an enormous network of small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Public assets, such as universities, have been rolled into foundations which are controlled, once again, by parties close to and dependent on Fidesz, for the very long-term. From the perspective of Fidesz: Should Fidesz lose power, under the oligarch model, presumably most oligarchs would remain loyal to Fidesz and could continue to provide a significant economic hinterland to Fidesz, from campaign financing to jobs and contracts to loyalists. These companies could withhold service and create disruption in the economy, bringing into question the economic competence of a successor government, thereby exercising a profoundly anti-democratic effect. What happens if an oligarch goes rogue? In 2015 Orbán decided to permit direct enrichment of oligarchs, rather than just filling Fidesz coffers. Simicska switched his allegiance to Jobbik, a far right political party at the time, which frontally attacked Fidesz ('We work, you steal!' was their main slogan). A resolution was reached in 2017, a few months before elections, when a buyout of Simicska’s assets by former gas equipment service man, Mészáros, being Orbán’s strawman, was arranged, including the purchase of construction company Közgép, and key media assets, for HUF 45 billion (over $300 million). An example of potentially losing oligarch assets via succession was the death of world-famous movie mogul Vajna. Normally, a simple estate procedure takes a year or more in Hungary. Vajna’s casinos were transferred to an investor group close to Garancsi, another businessman close to Fidesz, with unusual speed. Interests close to the government are negotiating for the purchase of Budapest Airport, a strategic asset worth a few billion euros. Rumour has it that French Vinci will co-invest and manage the asset. Interests close to the government have recently purchased a majority interest in Auchan, a supermarket chain, and at least one other international supermarket chain is bracing for an 'irresistible offer'. The creation of Magyar Bank Holding (MBH) from the merger of three nationalised banks (Budapest Bank, Takarékbank, and MKB Bank) to create an oligarch super-bank, offers the potential of accelerating this process of oligarchization, providing cheap and easy financing for oligarchs to buy and leverage assets. 4iG, a technology holding firm close to Fidesz, recently raised over EUR 400 million from MKB, with a state guarantee to boot, to buy Vodafone Hungary. So where does this all lead? Productivity growth of Hungarian companies (0.8% per year) is less than half of the European average (2%) over the past decade. Many SME owners are not willing to grow their businesses beyond a certain point for fear of becoming a target for oligarchs. "There comes a point when confidence of investors, domestic and foreign, may diminish or evaporate', Nemethy, "the CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors Ltd and a former official at the World Bank' wrote. (Source: intellinews)

Germany
2023. dec. 1.  A report conducted by the German Centre for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM) before the October attack found that since 2017, between 700 and 1,000 cases of Islamaphobic crimes have been reported to the police, with many others believed to go unreported. It also found that one in two people in the country agree with anti-Muslim statements. Germany has 5.5 million Muslim citizens – one of the biggest communities in Europe. Muslims in Germany feel increasingly alienated by the public discourse after Hamas-Israel conflict. In the second half of October, the number of anti-Muslim incidents has increased to three a day on average, including ten attacks on mosques, with a high number of undetected cases, according to CLAIM, a government-supported non-profit. Representatives of the Muslim community in Germany are concerned about increased marginalisation and a rise in Islamophobic incidents amidst a heated debate around anti-Semitism. 'The blanket suspicion towards Muslims, the de-facto marginalisation of Muslim interests and the voice of Muslims has created a serious [crisis of confidence] that we will have to deal with for years,' Mazyek, chair of the General Council of Muslims in Germany (ZMD), told on 27 November. He described an atmosphere of intimidation, with a spike in attacks on women wearing a hijab and Muslim students being singled out and challenged on their views by teachers. Last week, at the most recent Islam Conference (DIK), a forum initiated by the Interior Ministry to bring Muslim communities, the state, and civil society together, the theme was switched from Islamaphobia to anti-Semitism while the country’s largest Muslim organisation, ZMD, was not invited for unspecified reasons. Interior Minister Faeser mostly called out Muslim anti-Semitism in her speech and left shortly after – due to what a ministry spokesperson called time pressures. Still, Muslims in Germany, including their religious leaders, face pressure from civil society to address anti-Semitism coming from within their ranks. “In this situation, Islamic organisations should primarily address Muslims and, in my view, very little is coming from them. […] Public statements are nice but they don’t achieve anything,” Schuster, the president of the General Council of German Jews, told. 'Currently, Islamist anti-Semitism is evident in Germany and puts Jews in danger. However, we should not believe that right-wing anti-Semitism has suddenly disappeared,' Schuster said. 'In parallel with a surge in anti-Semitic incidents, Muslims in Germany have also seen a surge in hatred directed at them. It’s important to distinguish between private Muslim citizens and Islamic organisations,' Kaddor, a leading Green MP and influential advocate for Muslim causes told. Media and political leaders have highlighted recent anti-Semitic incidents, including crowds that appeared to be celebrating the Hamas attack in migrant-dominated quarters of Berlin, and caliphate flags shown at pro-Palestinian protests.  A public debate shaped in part by Germany’s historical guilt for the Holocaust has left little room to embrace Palestinian grief too, some observers say. The German government insisted on 27 November that it continues to back the two-state solution to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but stated that Israel’s protection was more pressing. (Source: euractiv)

Russia
Dec 1 2023  Four blasts rocked the ten-mile tunnel in the Severomuyskiy mountains as a train passed through last night. A source claimed Ukraine's SBU intelligence service was behind the attack in Russia's far east. 'There was an explosion on the Baikal-Amur mainline, in the Severomuyskiy tunnel. Currently, this route, which Russia uses for military supplies, is paralysed,' a Kyiv security source told. The tunnel attack could hamper trade with China. A 41-wagon goods train - including three tankers filled with aviation fuel - was reportedly blown up yesterday. And it will also limit the movement of Russian troops and military supplies from eastern Russia, where many of Putin’s conscripts hail from. Russian media reported a fire in the Severomuyskiy tunnel, but did not elaborate on what had caused it. They said specialist fire trains raced to the scene and no one had been hurt. 'The railway workers are unsuccessfully trying to minimise the consequences of the SBU special operation,' the source in Kyiv claimed. The blasts came only hours after a Ukrainian cyber attack saw a message from President Zelensky broadcast on TVs across occupied Crimea. Together with his spy chief Lt Gen Budanov, they declared: 'Crimea is ours.' The pair vowed to expel Russian forces and return annexed Crimea to Ukraine. 'The daring hack also saw the message 'Putin is a d***head' displayed on Crimean TVs'. Budanov's wife, along with intelligence officials, were poisoned with arsenic and mercury this week. Budanov and his senior officers are responsible for an increasing amount of daring attacks on Putin's home turf and have also taken responsibility for targeting key Russian war officials and Kremlin propagandists. Meanwhile, the Russian ruler revealed his dream as he demanded women serve Russia by having eight or more kids. "Large families must become the norm," Putin said in a TV address. “Thank God many of our people have a tradition of a strong multi-generational family, raising four, five and more children. “Let us remember how in Russian families many of our grandmothers and great grandmothers had seven, eight, or even more children. “Let's preserve and revive these wonderful traditions. “Having many children, a large family, should become a norm, a way of life for all the peoples of Russia," Putin said. The leader is now scrambling to reverse a plummeting birth rate and mass exodus - even plotting to trade prison sentences for pregnancies and limiting access to abortions. (Source: the-sun *)
* The U.S.Sun

Russia
01/12/2023  President Putin issued a decree today that would boost troop numbers 15 percent. 'The increase in the full-time strength of the army is due to growing threats to our country linked with the special military operation and the continuing expansion of NATO," the army said, adding that some 170,000 soldiers would join the force as a response to the "aggressive activity of the NATO bloc'. Russia said today its troops were advancing in every section of the Ukrainian front. The front lines have barely shifted in 2023 but fighting has remained intense. In recent days, improving weather conditions - following powerful storms across southern Ukraine and Russia earlier this week - have enabled Russia's forces to intensify their assaults and use drones again, Ukrainian officials said. The latest major flashpoint is the nearly encircled industrial town of Avdiivka. Part of the Donetsk region, the city - which was once home to around 30,000 people - has been on the front line since 2014. In a briefing with Russia's top military brass, Shoigu said his men were "effectively and firmly inflicting fire damage on the Ukrainian armed forces, significantly reducing their combat capabilities'. His ministry announced on November 29 it had taken control of Khromove, a small village on the outskirts of Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk region. Other territorial gains have proved elusive. Russian forces launched more than two dozen Iranian-designed attack drones and two missiles on the south and east of the country overnight, Ukraine said. The air force said it downed 18 of the drones and one missile over southern regions. Ukraine also said today it had orchestrated attacks on a Russian railway line in Siberia. 'Another fuel train has exploded on the Baikal-Amur railway,' a source in Ukrainian law enforcement agencies told, referring to the SBU security services. Moscow confirmed that earlier this week a train crew had spotted smoke in a fuel tank and called firefighters to the scene. Russia's defence ministry said it had destroyed a Ukrainian naval drone off the western coast of Crimea. (Source: france24)

December 1, 2023  Russian investigators said today a dual Russian-Italian national had been detained for planting bombs on railway tracks as part of a sabotage campaign orchestrated by Ukrainian military intelligence. After his arrest, the man, born in 1988 and a resident of Ryazan, confessed to planting home-made bombs that derailed a freight train in central Russia on Nov. 11. Investigators accuse him of launching a drone attack against a military airfield in the Ryazan region in July and derailing a freight train using an explosive device last month. "During questioning, the detainee confessed and said that in February 2023 he was recruited by an employee of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine,' the Investigative Committee said. The detained man admitted undergoing 'sabotage training in Latvia with the direct participation of the Latvian special services,' the Committee said. A freight train was derailed on Nov. 11 near the town of Rybnoe, about 177 km south-east of Moscow. (Source: reuters)

Ukraine
2023. dec. 1.  President Zelenskyy called for faster construction of fortifications in key sectors under pressure from Russian forces, particularly in eastern Ukraine, the focal point of Moscow’s advances. 'In all major sectors where reinforcement is needed, there should be a boost and an acceleration in the construction of structures,' Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on 30 November. 'This of course means the greatest attention to the Avdiivka, Maryinka and other sectors in Donetsk region. In Kharkiv region, this means the Kupiansk sector and the Kupiansk-Lyman line.' Zelenskyy issued his appeal after touring Ukrainian positions in the northeast, one of several areas where Russian forces have been trying to make recent headway and recapture areas taken back by Ukrainian troops a year ago. Russia has boosted attacks in several areas. These include Kupiansk near Kharkiv, retaken by Ukraine in a drive through the northeast a year ago. Ukrainian troops have made only incremental gains in the east and south. Russian forces have focused attention since mid-October on the devastated town of Avdiivka, known for its vast coking plant and its position as a gateway to the Russian-held regional centre of Donetsk, 20 km to the east. 'The plant is under our control. The enemy is suffering significant losses there,' military spokesperson Shtupun told, noting Russian artillery and air attacks inside and around the town. Russian forces have also been pressing near contested villages surrounding the equally shattered town of Bakhmut, captured by Russian forces in May after months of fighting.  Russia’s Defence Ministry on November 29 announced the capture of village Khromove. Unofficial Ukrainian accounts dispute that claim. Ukrainian military analyst Hrabskyi said the Russians sought to capitalise on their capture of Bakhmut to advance on at least three cities to the west. “It is crucial for the enemy to develop things in tactical terms with an eye to possibly advancing on Kostyantynivka, as well as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk,” Hrabskyi told. (Source: euractiv)

Asia

China
Dec 01, 2023  China is set to impose export controls on certain graphite products, potentially having a significant impact in the United States on both electric vehicle manufacturing and some military applications. In 2018, the U.S. Government underscored the criticality of graphite by including it on a list of 35 essential minerals, highlighting its vulnerability to supply chain disruptions and its importance in manufacturing processes crucial to the economy or national security. The restrictions, set to take effect from December 1, were announced on October 20 by China's General Administration of Customs and Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM). Analysts Benson and Denamiel, writing for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), highlighted the particular significance of these restrictions: "While the August controls were aimed at the chips sector, China's graphite controls have more bite in electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturing since the material is used as a key input for anodes, the negatively charged portion of the EV battery." In 2022, China was the top graphite-producing country in the world, as it produced an estimated 850,000 metric tons of graphite, a crystalline form of carbon. Shu, a spokeswoman for the MOFCOM, said that such export controls are an international norm and, to date, the ministry hasn't received any exemption applications from companies. The latest decision comes after China announced further export control restrictions on rare earths last month without naming the minerals covered by the restrictions. China's top spy agency, the Ministry of State Security (MSS), framed the context of these controls in broader terms in a WeChat post: "Just as human life is inseparable from vitamins, critical minerals are also called the 'vitamins' of strategic industries and are related to national development and national security". The MSS further criticized Western nations for their approach to securing critical minerals: "Some Western countries seek their own selfish interests and have established various 'small circles' such as the International Alliance on Energy and Critical Minerals, the Mineral Security Partnership, and the Sustainable Critical Minerals Alliance, and built 'small courtyards and high walls' to obtain critical mineral resources by any means, seriously hindering the process of globalization." The United States is heavily involved in the three critical mineral alliances mentioned. (Source: newsweek)

Gaza
1 December 2023  Explosions have been heard and smoke was seen rising in several parts of Gaza, after combat in the region resumed. Gaza City, Rafah and Khan Younis were among the places hit. A pause in fighting between Hamas and Israel lasted seven days, during which time 110 hostages held by Hamas and 240 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel were released. (Source: bbc)

1 Dec (2023)  Restart in hostilities. Deadline to extend ceasefire has passed. Israel says it has resumed fighting with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Hamas did not agree to release further hostages, which violated the terms of the truce. Hamas believes that Israel violated the truce agreement by not allowing fuel into the north of the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, Hamas was unwilling to release Israeli men held in Gaza on the same terms as the women and child hostages. In Gaza, 137 people who were kidnapped in the Hamas attacks on 7 October remain hostage – 20 women and 117 men, including Israeli military personnel. The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza says 32 people have been killed in three hours. It says more than 14,800 people have been killed, including about 6,000 children, since Israel began its campaign against Hamas in Gaza. The Israeli military appears to have dropped leaflets warning residents of Khan Younis in southern Gaza to head further south for their safety in nearby Rafah - close to the Egyptian border. This evening, a source close to the ceasefire talks in Qatar says negotiations about hostages have collapsed. Another truce does not, at the moment, seem likely. The Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) says Israel has blocked humanitarian aid from reaching the Gaza Strip "until further notice". The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza says 178 people have been killed in Israeli strikes, since the end of the truce this morning. "Most of whom are children and women,' the ministry says in a statement. It adds that there were also 589 injuries recorded during the day. Today the World Health Organization (WHO) was hoping to coordinate emergency medical teams to support Gaza’s few hospitals which are still functioning, but it says this is now unlikely. In al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City, which the WHO visited during the week-long truce, the team reported patients with 'the most horrific injuries' lying on floors 'running with blood', while the bodies of those who had been killed were lined up in the car park outside. Fighting, and the scarcity of water, electricity and fuel, has collapsed Gaza’s healthcare system. Israel said its warplanes attacked 200 targets throughout Gaza today. Late in the evening, reports from Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, spoke of some of the heaviest bombardment yet. (Source: bbc)

Israel
1 December 2023   Israel this morning relaunched its brutal offensive with full force, firing a barrage of missiles and sending warplanes screaming over Gaza as a week-long ceasefire expired today. According to a WSJ report, Israel has already started the preparation for targeted killings abroad. The Israeli officials told WSJ: 'The question now for Israeli leaders isn't about whether to try to kill Hamas leaders elsewhere in the world, but where - and how.' In November, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a press conference: 'I have instructed the Mossad to act against the heads of Hamas wherever they are'. During the same conference Israel Minister of Defence Gallant said the Hamas leaders were 'marked for death.' Hamas group's members are known to hide across the Middle East. Hamas terror chief Haniyeh was spotted cheering for joy from the safety of his Qatar office during the October 7 terror attacks. Former Mossad director Halevy reportedly described the plan as 'far-fetched'. 'Pursuing Hamas on a worldwide scale and trying to systematically remove all its leaders from this world is a desire to exact revenge, not a desire to achieve a strategic aim,' he said. Le Figaro reported that Qatar received assurances from Israel that Mossad will not eliminate terrorists on their soil. Despite the fresh violence, Qatari and Egyptian mediators are still negotiating a new extension of the seven-day truce. (Source: dailymail)
Some comments:
- "Extra judicial killings are murder."
- "Excellent, start in London."
- "Eliminate the threats for the future generations".

Taiwan
Dec 1, 2023  Beijing has sponsored cut-price trips to China for hundreds of Taiwanese politicians ahead of key elections on the island, according to Taiwan sources and documents, unnerving officials with a broad campaign that one called "election interference". President Tsai and other Taiwan officials have warned that China might try to sway voters toward candidates seeking closer ties with Beijing in the elections, which could define the island's relations with China. Beijing, which claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own and has ramped up military and political pressure to force the island to accept its sovereignty, frames the Jan. 13 presidential and legislative elections as a choice between "peace and war', calling the ruling party dangerous separatists and urging Taiwanese to make the 'right choice'. Taiwanese law forbids election campaigns from receiving money from "external hostile forces", including China. Beijing was targeting politicians crucial to the island's administrative systems who play key roles in shaping public opinion. Taiwan's Mainland minister, Chiu said it was 'self-evident" Beijing was trying to sway Taiwan elections through means including free trips for politicians. 'They have already made it clear that a so-called 'right choice' has to be made, meaning choosing candidates that the Chinese Communist Party prefers,' he told. Across Taiwan security agencies are looking into more than 400 visits to China in the past month, most led by local opinion leaders such as borough chiefs and village heads. People taking these trips typically pay their own airfare, but other expenses are offered by Chinese authorities. The agencies believe the trips, with discounted accommodations, transportation and meals, were subsidised by units under China's Taiwan Affairs Office. More than 20 borough chiefs from a district of the capital Taipei joined a China-sponsored trip to Shanghai with their families in September, while more than 10 people from an association for local politicians in neighbouring New Taipei City joined a trip this week, according to two security reports. "Certain borough chiefs have become the window of contacts in Taiwan for some Chinese units." In the investigation in the southern city of Kaohsiung, prosecutors said they believed the five trips from there were fully funded by China's Taiwan Affairs Office. So far this year, more than 1,000 borough chiefs or village heads joined such trips, more than last time, the official said, adding China was targeting electoral districts where support was strong for candidates campaigning for closer China ties. Building criminal cases against trip-takers is challenging, security officials said, because it can be hard to establish a money trail to Chinese state agencies behind the tours, which often come much below the going market rate, and to establish what was said during meetings with Chinese officials. Taiwan suspended group tours to China via travel agencies after the COVID-19 pandemic, but there are no restrictions on individuals visiting. (Source: indiatoday)

South America

Venezuela
Fri, December 1, 2023  A century-old territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana is threatening to escalate into a shooting war. Venezuelans going to the polls Sunday will be asked to answer in a five-part referendum an unusually provocative question: Should their government be given a blank check to invade neighboring Guyana, and wrest away three-quarters of its oil-rich territory? Venezuela claims ownership of about 61,600 square miles of Guyana, tracing its possession to the time both countries were European colonies. Although Venezuela has unceasingly contested an 1899 ruling made by international arbitrators that established the current borders between the two countries, it had allowed the issue to remain on the back burner for decades. The new area would be called Guayana Esequiba, a new Venezuelan state encompassing 74% of English-speaking Guyana’s current landmass. The resolution to put the question to Venezuelan voters was approved in September by the Maduro-controlled National Assembly, which said it is intended to “allow the Venezuelan people to express their views on a significant territorial dispute.” The regime has already launched an aggressive propaganda campaign over the news outlets it controls, with TV and radio stations every few minutes broadcasting jingles promoting one constant message: “The Essequibo is ours.” An overwhelming yes vote is expected, given that even Maduro’s opponents have either refrained from criticizing the referendum or have actually supported it. A yes vote on the referendum may provoke public demand that Maduro act to take over the disputed territory. Many Guyanese see the threat as real and fear the loss of their citizenship. The Essequibo area has more than 230,000 resident, a third of Guyanese population. Experts say an armed conflict with Guyana would lead to greater international isolation for Maduro, given that Guyana is a member of CARICOM, the 15-member Caribbean trade bloc whose support has been essential for Caracas in international forums such as the U.N. and the Organization of American States. In a press release last month the group said Venezuelan threats to stop Guyana from developing Essequibo’s natural resources is “contrary to international law.” Is meant Maduro‘s gambit to force Guyana to the negotiating table and give Venezuela a piece of the Essequibo? This week Brazil - a close ally of both nations that shares its border with both - sent top foreign advisor Amorin to mediate while announcing that it was increasing its military presence along its northern border amid fears that the long-standing dispute could turn into a war. Brazil cannot afford to allow that to happen, especially the forced aspect. Some of the country’s neighbors base their own borders on the same 1899 arbitration decision. Brazil has a border with every South American country with the exception of Chile and Ecuador, and some of those countries are not happy with their borders with Brazil. The border dispute is currently before the United Nations’ International Court of Justice. Guyana has asked the court to rule the 1899 decision valid and binding. In November, Guyana again went before the court, this time asking it to halt parts of Venezuela’s five-part referendum. The country hopes to have a decision from the court on Friday about the referendum. (Source: yahoo)

Globalization

December 1, 2023  Competing visions summed up the most divisive issue facing world leaders at this year's U.N. climate summit in Dubai, in the oil-producing United Arab Emirates. U.N. Secretary General Guterres urged world leaders at the COP28 climate summit to plan for a future without fossil fuels, saying there was no other way to curb global warming. Speaking a day after COP28 president al-Jaber proposed embracing the continued use of fossil fuels, Guterres said: "We cannot save a burning planet with a fire hose of fossil fuels." "The 1.5-degree limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels. Not reduce. Not abate," he said. "Unless we rapidly repair and restore nature's economy, based on harmony and balance, which is our ultimate sustainer, our own economy and survivability will be imperilled," said King Charles III of Britain, who has spent most of his adult life campaigning on the environment. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to admonish wealthy countries for their role in releasing the most climate-warming emissions since the Industrial Revolution. "Over the past century, a small section of humanity has indiscriminately exploited nature. However, entire humanity is paying the price for this, especially people living in the global south,' Modi said. Heine, a former Marshall Islands president, whose country faces inundation from climate-driven sea level rise, resigned from the main COP28 advisory board today in objection to the UAE's support of continued use of fossil fuels. The United Nations today published its first draft for what could serve as a template for a final agreement from the COP28 summit, which ends Dec. 12. The draft's central problem is of whether, and to what extent, fossil fuels should play a role in the future. One of the options involves including commitments to phase down or phase out the use of fossil fuels, to quit coal energy and to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. Also on the table for discussion is whether to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, which totaled some $7 trillion last year, and whether to include provisions for carbon capture and removal technology. The summit also clinched an early victory by adopting a new fund to help poor nations cope with climate disasters. Delegations and technical committees set to work today on the mammoth task of assessing their progress in meeting global climate targets, specifically the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to within 2 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial temperatures. Scientists say that a global temperature rise beyond this threshold will unleash catastrophic and irreversible impacts worldwide. (Source: reuters)

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Europe

Bulgaria
30 November 2023  In Bulgaria local elections were held on 29 October. The investigative journalism site Bivol revealed suspicious links between the elected centrist mayor of Varna, Kotsev, and some offshore transactions. Bivol's journalists claim that Kotsev was investigated by prosecutors before being granted the protection of mayoral candidate status. Kotsev was one of the few mayors from the pro-European PP-DB coalition to outperform the ruling GERB in major cities. (Source: voxeurop)

Romania
30 November 2023  Prelude to electoral 2024. With European and local elections dominating the agenda across the region, the media have already stepped up their efforts to expose the misuse of public resources, corruption and manipulation. For example, to interview Romanian President Iohannis, whose ten-year term ends in November 2024, the daily Libertatea sent one of its reporters to Cabo Verde, where Iohannis and his entourage, including his wife, had stopped on a tour designed to 'put Romania back on the African radar.' After examining one of the president's rented business jets and researching the presidential travel policies of other European countries, the investigative journalists from Recorder concluded that 'Romania turns out to be the only country in the EU where the president travels with private planes and then keeps the costs secret.' (Source: voxeurop)

The Netherlands
2023. nov. 30.  A week after Dutch leader Wilders sparked a political earthquake in the Netherlands and further afield with a stunning election victory, his task of building a coalition has become even more difficult. Wilders needs the backing of 76 MPs in the 150-seat parliament for a working majority. His Party for Freedom has 37 seats and his preferred coalition is with the BBB farmers party (seven seats), the all-new pro-reform New Social Party (20 seats) and the current ruling party, the centre-right VVD (24 seats). Wilders suffered a setback to his goal of forming a governing coalition yesterday. The VVD has already ruled out participation, saying it would support a centre-right coalition from the opposition benches. Wilders’ anti-Islam, anti-immigrant, and anti-EU manifesto also calls for a halt in weapons supplies to Ukraine. A key potential partner, the Dutch New Social Contract (NSC) and its list leader Omtzigt said on November 29, it did not see a way of working with the PVV unless it clarified the 'extreme parts' of its manifesto, which 'contains views which in our judgement go against the constitution… here we draw a hard line,” said a letter from Omtzigt to the scout charged with overseeing the negotiations. The manifesto calls for a ban on mosques, headscarves and the Koran, as well as a referendum on a Nexit - the Netherlands leaving the European Union. “All in all, the NSC faction does not now see any basis to start talks with the PVV about a majority or a minority government.' Wilders moderated his tone during the election campaign and has stressed since election night that he wants to be prime minister “for all Dutch” regardless of race or religion. “We notice that Mr Wilders has said he wants to put the relevant parts of his manifesto ‘in the freezer’. What is the status of the PVV manifesto now?” asked the NSC. (Source: euractiv)

European Parliament
2023. nov. 30.  Just a few months before the EU elections, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) remains the main political power in the EU, set to win 175 seats, three fewer than they currently hold, according to a new projection about EU Parliament’s seats by Europe Elects seen before its publication later today. The socialist S&D would remain at 141. The polls suggest that liberal Renew group, which currently holds 101 seats and is expected to decline to 89. Based on the projected numbers, a pro-EU grand coalition between the EPP, S&D and the Liberals seems to be a likely scenario. Just after summer, tensions between the EU centre-right and centre-left escalated following public disagreements on several policy files, such as a vote on the EU Nature Restoration Law and the Air Pollution Directive. The two parties exchanged harsh accusations regarding their stance toward EU-driven green policies in general and that the EPP eyed a coalition with far-right forces. Since late September, things seem to have calmed down - EPP boss Bakolas ruled out any collaboration between the EPP and the ECR or ID. “I think the EPP, the Socialists, ALDE [liberals], and the Greens are political elements within the EU that have guaranteed our Union is moving forward in the right direction,' Bakolas said. The Greens are collapsing electorally, set to decline from 72 to 52 seats. European far-right political forces have reached a record high: if EU elections were to be held today, anti-EU far-right political parties, which have united under the umbrella of the “Identity and Democracy” (ID) group in the EU Parliament, would win 87 out of 705 seats ( they currently hold 60 seats). According to the survey, ID’s significant electoral boost is expected to take over the conservative European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR) and become the fourth largest power in the EU House. The most recent gains for the ID group were partially driven by the victory of Wilders’ PVV in the Dutch elections last week, according to Europe Elects. ID consists of parties such as Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN), which leads polls in France; Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which ranks second in the German election, as well as Salvini’s Lega, which already is a coalition partner in Italy. A similar situation exists for Austria’s FPÖ, which steadily tops the polls in Vienna. Following the Dutch elections, Le Pen spoke out at EU institutions, saying they need a complete overhaul, clarifying that Europe should not fall apart and France should keep the Euro currency. “In total, about 23% of the seats would go to the two groups of the radical right in the EU Parliament, as per the current projection", Europe Elects commented. This does not include right parties that are not affiliated with the two groups, like the Hungarian Fidesz, which sits with the ideologically diverse Non-Inscrits (NI) in the EU Parliament. According to Europe Elects, far-right political forces in Europe have gradually changed their rhetoric, and instead of pushing for an exit from the EU, they now prioritise the need to change the EU in their public speeches. This element could help them break the tradition and mobilise voters ahead of the elections. (Source: euractiv)

2023. nov. 30.  'Pfizergate' affair lead EU lawmaker Rivasi, the Green MEP who pushed for the SMS exchanges between the European Commission President and Pfizer CEO to be made public, died on 29 November at the age of 70 of a heart attack while on her way to the European Parliament in Brussels. (Source: euractiv)

Europol
30 Nov 2023  Between 13 and 18 November 2023, law enforcement authorities across Europe joined forces to target firearms trafficking, drug trafficking, migrant smuggling and trafficking in human beings, and high-risk criminal networks during coordinated EMPACT Joint Action Days South East Europe. The intelligence-led approach saw police, customs, immigration agencies and border control agencies join forces. Spain coordinated the operational activities, while Europol coordinated the exchange of operational information between the parties involved. Police, gendarmerie, border guards, customs authorities and national units involved in combating organised crime across Europe cooperated, intensified checks at the EU’s external borders and special operations in the countries involved in these days. The operation was coordinated from an international coordination centre set up in Skopje, North Macedonia, where officers representing these authorities were present to facilitate international cooperation and respond to operational needs on the ground. The intelligence-led approach and cross-border operational coordination involved joint efforts by 22 488 officers from the participating authorities. Europol coordinated the exchange of operational information and supported the operational coordination. Europol also deployed experts on the ground to provide real-time analytical support to field operatives. The Netherlands deployed two teams with special scanning equipment to border crossing points in Greece and Montenegro. Frontex deployed experts and equipment to the external borders. Officers checked '288 774 entities' - 215 273 persons, 67 277 vehicles and 5 225 postal packages/parcels were checked - leading to the detection of 2 229 illegal entries. 2 229 illegal entries were detected and 566 arrests (218 related to migrant smuggling, 186 related to drug trafficking, 69 related to firearms trafficking, 89 related to other crimes). 114 forged documents were identified. Seizures included 310 weapons (84 automatic weapons, 65 pistols, 59 rifles, 22 grenade launchers, 16 revolvers, 7 carbine, 6 shotguns, 4 converted weapons, 2 air guns, other, 42 other); 20 206 pieces of ammunition; almost a tonne of drugs including 626 kg of cocaine, almost 300 kg cannabis, heroin and marijuana plants. The information exchange led to the opening of 121 new cases against criminal networks. Cyber patrolling was set up during the operational phase, between 13 and 18 November 2023. It focused on monitoring and investigative activities on different websites, forums and marketplaces on the clear and dark web as well as on messaging applications and social media networks. The operational activities were aimed at detecting the illicit trafficking of firearms and collecting further information on the identified targets. The online investigations also focused on re-enactment activities that could assist the operational actions on the ground. These investigations were conducted in native languages by officers from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine. The officers carried out these activities in a synchronised manner. Investigators identified 120 targets (accounts and/or individuals) related to the trafficking of firearms, 94 of which were on a messaging application, 11 on marketplaces and 10 on other clear websites and 5 on the dark web. Overall participants in all joint action days: 26 countries across Europe, supported by Europol, Eurojust, Frontex, INTERPOL and a number of international structures. EU Member States: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden; Non-EU countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Türkiye, Ukraine and United Kingdom. EU agencies: Europol, Eurojust and Frontex. International and institutional partners: EUBAM, IPA/2019 (EU co-funded projects: “EU Support to Strengthen the Fight against Migrant Smuggling and Trafficking in Human Beings in the Western Balkans” and “Countering serious crime in the Western Balkans), INTERPOL, PCC SEE (Police Cooperation Convention for Southeast Europe Secretariat), SEESAC (South Eastern and Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons), SELEC (Southeast European Law Enforcement Center), UNDP and UNODC. (Source: europol)

European Union
30.11.2023  Day of Remembrance for all Victims of Chemical Warfare. The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) is the world’s most successful disarmament treaty that has eradicated an entire category of weapons of mass destruction. "In July this year, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) verified the destruction of the world’s last declared chemical weapons stock". Despite the progress made, the re-emergence of chemical weapons remains one of the most serious threats to international peace and security. The use of chemical weapons is a violation of international law, which can amount to the most serious of international crimes - war crimes and crimes against humanity. The European Union supports national and international efforts towards full accountability for those responsible, regardless of their position. The EU continues its active participation in the Partnership Against Impunity for the Use of Chemical Weapons. No one should use chemical weapons, anywhere, at any time or under any circumstances. Every year, on 30 November, the European Union commemorates those who have died and suffered as a result of the use of chemical weapons, and pledges to continue to fight against impunity. In Syria, the EU has imposed restrictive measures on an entity and persons responsible for development and use of chemical weapons, in particular for the attacks that took place in August 2013 in Ghouta - in which the Syrian regime killed more than 1,400 people - March 2017 in Ltamenah and 2018 in Douma. They have caused thousands of victims, including children. The EU has imposed restrictive measures on persons and entities in Russia linked to the Salisbury attack in 2018 and the poisoning of Mr Navalny in 2020. Chemical weapons have also been used in Russia, the United Kingdom, Malaysia and Iraq. (Source: eeas)

Kosovo
November 30, 2023  Kosovo's police engaged in clashes with veterans of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) who were protesting outside a hotel in Pristina where the president of the Kosovo Specialist Chambers, Trendafilova, was lodged. Members of Kosovo’s leftist Social Democratic Party (PSD) attempted to access Sirius hotel in Pristina where Trendafilova was meeting with NGO representatives. The Kosovo Specialist Chambers & Specialist Prosecutor’s Office was set up in 2015 in The Hague to probe and prosecute war crimes committed by former KLA members who fought for independence from Serbia, during the conflict in 1998-99. The institution is working under Kosovo's jurisdiction. The protest saw KLA veterans expressing their opposition to the war crime court. Protesters voiced concerns about the lack of transparency within the court, highlighting its closed trial sessions and the absence of information regarding the sources of evidence. Key figures such as Kosovo's former president Thaci, ex-parliament speaker Veseli, and former MP Selimi, who were all leaders of the KLA, are presently facing trial in The Hague. Activating smoke bombs and launching pyrotechnic devices, the veterans clashed with the police, resulting in the use of tear gas by the police. The clash also led to the detention of several activists from the PSD, heightening the tensions on the streets of Pristina. As the situation escalated, journalists covering the protest were caught in the crossfire. The Kosovo police's use of tear gas created breathing problems for some reporters on the scene. The Association of Journalists of Kosovo expressed deep concern over the police actions, condemning the use of force against journalists and calling for respect for their professional duties. (Source: intellinews)

Moldova
30 November 2023  Moldova held local elections on 5 November, with the liberal PAS securing the majority of mayoralties (32.51%). A few days before the elections, however, Moldova's Commission for Emergency Situations barred the candidates of the "Chance" party from running, accusing the party of being financed with Russian money by fugitive MP Șor. The investigative newspaper Ziarul de Gardă – which recently accused Chicu, leader of the centrist PDCM, of sexist and hate speech after he called the paper's reporters "mediatic escorts' belonging to a 'mediatic brothel' – conducted impromptu interviews with voters from Orhei, a town that has traditionally voted for the Chance party. Ziarul de Gardă wanted to find out who would get the support of the people by removing their favourite from the race. However, the people of Orhei confessed that they had been manipulated. “It was a gathering, they gave us small papers. We have agents who inform us,' an elderly lady said. The winning candidate in Orhei was Cociu, who was supported by the leader of the "Chance" party, Lungu. (Source: voxeurop)

Russia
30 November (2023)  In a report, "The Russian Understanding of Soldier Morale: Essentials of Key Ideas from the 1990s to 2022", Gustafsson Kurki, senior researcher in FOI’s Defence Analysis Division looks into how Russian military analysts themselves reason about, and use, the concept of soldier morale. He created a model to explain the Russian view, analysing multiple Russian texts on the topic. Their concept of soldier morale revolves heavily around religious spirituality, which is used to legitimise the armed forces and Putin’s power. Associating morale with the Orthodox Church is desired. The model consists of three parts: Russian spirituality, emotionality-based communality and coercion. In the military-analytical texts, the Russian view of spirituality is strongly linked to religiosity and churchliness. Russian spirituality corresponds to the concept of duchovnost, which is a far more important quality in Russian soldiers than the possession of high-tech weapons, according to some Russian military analysts. When they write about duchovnost, they are more often referring to a Christian belief in God, Gustafsson Kurki says. “The texts refer to religion as the highest value that motivates soldiers to fight, and that spirituality and soldier morale are two sides of the same coin". “They are trying to legitimise the armed forces and Putin’s power by associating the Orthodox Church with themselves. Almost every Russian thinks duchovnost is important. By connecting it to the armed forces, it becomes more difficult for any critics to speak out. The second part of the model deals with emotionality-based communality. In military-analytical texts, soldier morale is not considered an individual matter, but as something possessed by a military collective – that is, companies, battalions, or the entire army. The collective is emphasised over the individual. This is also expressed in how coercive power and the military order are seen, which is as a sacred instruction that must be fulfilled at all costs. Soldiers who receive orders must show a willingness to sacrifice and blindly obey the order, while officers are described as emanating willpower and initiative in a completely different way,” says Gustafsson Kurki. Third, and the aspect of Russian thinking about soldier morale that most overlaps with Western thinking is coercive power. All military organisations are based on the state’s monopoly on violence and, by extension, its coercive power. Individuals may be ordered to do things that sometimes involve killing, or that result in their own deaths. “Basically, it is the same phenomenon that exists in all defence and armed forces. What distinguishes the Russian view of soldier morale from the Western one is the explicit role of spirituality, belief in God and religion.” The texts studied by Pär Gustafsson Kurki are philosophically oriented and half of the texts come from the Ministry of Defence’s own scientific journal. “The writers often have military ranks, so what is expressed comes from the military establishment, from people loyal to the regime.” Gustafsson Kurki conducted a short empirical study for the report to see if the alleged significance of duchovnost had practical implications. The Russian Armed Forces has invested in chaplains to some degree, but their number is modest in relation to the need, according him. “They still make a big deal out of the investments and bang the drum in the media, so it has more of an ideological point than a clear role in military efficiency. One sign of this is that Russia has previously managed to fight wars and achieve political goals without an elaborate system of chaplains, for example in the Second Chechen War.” In practice, factors such as discipline, functioning logistics and access to supplies and ammunition have been more important for Russia’s military success than the alleged importance of spirituality, Gustafsson Kurki says. He believes that by emphasising duchovnost, there is a risk that the Russians will be deluded about their own capabilities. 'They risk falling for their own propaganda. A contributing factor in their continued fight in Ukraine may be that they believe they have a spiritual quality that makes them destined to win, despite already shooting off much of their best materiel in the war.” 'If you wanted to reform how morale is viewed, you would also need to reform the rest of society. This is quite unlikely to happen, since the current regime is so invested in maintaining power. This model will probably be relevant for a long time to come.” (Source: foi *)
* the Swedish Defence Research Agency

Serbia
30 November 2023  A round of elections is fast approaching in Serbia this December. The upcoming vote is both local and parliamentary. The elections will also gauge Serbia's opinion of the current leadership led by President Vučić. After CRTA opinion polls institute claimed that for the first time more citizens gave Vucić a negative rating than a positive one, the Danas newspaper spoke to political analyst Mladenović. He explained that Vučić's electoral support is likely to decline due to a normal phenomenon that occurs after times of crisis. 'Speaking to the same newspaper, actress Bojković, who joined the ProGlas petition (signed by over 140,000 citizens) to encourage people to vote, fears that Serbia could face civil war if people don't vote in large numbers'. (Source: voxeurop)

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Asia

China
Thursday, November 30, 2023  China‘s high-altitude balloon program is linked to the military’s hypersonic missile program and a new command for both systems is prepared to conduct 'merciless' attacks in a future conflict with the United States, according to a Chinese defense research report by a group of researchers at the National University of Defense Technology. It states that the military set up a new command for both hypersonic missiles and the high-altitude balloons - like the suspected surveillance balloon shot down in February off the South Carolina coast by an Air Force jet fighter after traversing much of the continental U.S. 'Hypersonic weapons can attack rocket launch sites, [destroying] the enemy’s ability to fire anti-satellite missiles on our civilian satellite networks,' the report said. 'These attacks must be precise, overwhelming and merciless. This could change the pace of battles and bring a major impact to how a war would end.' The report, “Near Space Operations Command,” made public during a Beijing conference on command and control in October, said the new operations command will direct hypersonic missiles against heavily protected targets, including communications equipment and hubs in the heartland of an adversary. The same command also operates “a large number” of spy balloons, solar-powered unmanned aerial vehicles and other support equipment, the report said. China‘s high-altitude balloons are under the control of the People’s Liberation Army, according to defense officials and likely operated by the Strategic Support Force, a separate military branch in charge of military spying, cyberattacks, and electronic and psychological warfare. The balloons and autonomous systems operate at low speeds and can stay at high altitudes for weeks or months and provide surveillance and communications relay points. China is a world leader in hypersonic missiles, which can be armed with either nuclear or conventional warheads, according to a recent annual report by the congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. The China defense report describes hypersonic missiles as effective weapons that can strike targets minutes after launch and can maneuver to avoid anti-missile defenses. Its first operational hypersonic is the DF-17 missile topped with a hypersonic glide vehicle. The DF-41 has a hypersonic last stage that traveled nearly 25,000 miles in space before hitting a surface target in a 2021 test. China also is developing the Starry Sky-2, a hypersonic missile with warheads capable of penetrating current missile defenses. Beijing military planners could also use the new missiles to target civilian infrastructure such as launch pads for SpaceX rockets in the United States, the China defense technology report said. However, the missiles can pose challenges for political and international relations, the Chinese authors acknowledged. The near space combat force is in the early stages of rapid development, but it contains units that are not fully operational and lack standardized combat operations, the report said. “It is necessary to adjust the hierarchy of command and control powers, selection of command methods, implementation of executive orders and support for command communication.” The authors recommend that commanders acquire a deeper understanding of world affairs, national policies and strategic guidelines. During a conflict, senior PLA leaders should be able to delegate some authority to near space commanders that would improve decision-making and action time. 'The command headquarters and control stations of the near-space force will be the key targets of enemy reconnaissance and strikes,' the report said. 'The competition around the destruction and anti-destruction of these targets will be extremely intense.' According to the report, the near space command would take full control of hypersonic weapons from other PLA branches, such as the Rocket Force, in conducting rapid strikes on strategic enemy targets. The report, posted on the Chinese research database CNKI.net, was first disclosed by the South China Morning Post. A review of the database reveals that China has published hundreds of reports on near space, including its use for weapons. Beijing analysts define the near space domain as the zone 12 miles to 62 miles above the Earth’s surface, below what is officially and legally considered outer space. The air in that middle zone is considered too thin for aircraft and too dense to support orbiting satellites. 'Near space' is a new zone of conflict that will determine the outcome of future wars, according to Chinese strategists, but the legality of the concept is not sharply contested. 'Near space has become a new battleground in modern warfare,' the Liberation Army Daily, a state-run newspaper affiliated with the People’s Liberation Army, wrote in a recent editorial. Listner, founder and principal of Space Law and Policy Solutions, said China stepped up promoting its narrative of near space during the spy balloon incident, which sent bilateral relations with Washington plummeting. “Legally, there is no such creature as ‘near-space,’” he said, calling the Chinese argument “very dangerous.” “The stratospheric region above a sovereign nation is still sovereign airspace. But it appears the PRC is initiating a lawfare operation to create a legal ambiguity to justify not only balloon flights, but hypersonic weapons as well,' he said. Garretson, a space expert with the American Foreign Policy Council, said China is seeking to redefine near space, a concept that in the past was used to describe sovereign airspace where flight by propeller and fixed-wing aircraft was difficult. Previously, the domain was still considered sovereign territory and not unrestricted space that any nation could enter. “It has been a common legal understanding that until you are in outer space, you are in sovereign airspace,” Mr. Garretson said. “This is yet another example of China‘s all-domain press to redefine rules and definitions to their advantage - a way to condition the world to their relentless and imperial encroachment, and to justify acts of aggression such as their balloon incursion of multiple nations’ sovereign airspace,' he said. A report by the U.S. military’s Indo-Pacific Command’s joint operational law team argues that Beijing has been promoting the term “near space” in multiple publications in a bid to 'foment a gray zone in which to execute unlawful surveillance under a false veneer of legitimacy.' Gray zone is a military term used to describe low-level warfare. “There is no ‘near space’ in international law – only airspace and outer space, and [high-altitude balloons] fly in airspace,” the U.S. legal analysis said. The latest Chinese report on the new near space command, however, suggests the spy balloon program, which so far has been detected operating over 40 nations, is gathering information for use by hypersonic missiles, which travel at speeds greater than five times the speed of sound and can maneuver while skimming just below outer space. People’s Liberation Army surveillance balloons traveling in the stratosphere can gather valuable intelligence on wind, temperature and other conditions that would aid hypersonic missile attacks. (Source: washingtontimes)

Gaza
(30 November 2023)  Satellite images show almost 98,000 buildings may be damaged in Gaza, reveal the extent of destruction across the north of the Strip, before the start of the temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The satellite images were taken last Thursday, 23 November, just before the suspension of hostilities came into force, following weeks of Israeli air strikes and on-the-ground fighting. A whole series of craters are visible in what was once a residential area. Some of the buildings on the beach front, which boasted Gaza's first five-star hotel, the Al-Mashtal, as well as huts and restaurants, appear to have been partially destroyed. (Source: bbc)
Note: Maps (Source: bbc): https://tinyurl.com/y2t4t2p5

29 Nov (2023)  Who are the armed militant groups in Gaza? Living and operating amongst Gaza’s 2.3 million people are thought to be up to 11 different armed factions, mostly Islamist, ranging from the largest and most powerful, Hamas, down to small, armed gangs. When Hamas launched its cross-border raid into southern Israel on 7 October, its uniformed gunmen were accompanied by others from those gangs and even unaffiliated individuals. Hence the recent delays in releases. Hamas needs to bring the remaining Israeli hostages under its control so it can bargain for further extensions in the temporary truce. The main groups are as follows:    Hamas. Founded in 1987 and ruling Gaza since 2007, it had an estimated 20,000 to 30,000 fighters in its armed wing - the Izz Al-Din Al-Qassam Brigades. It's funded and supported by Iran. Hamas’s charter remains dedicated to the destruction of the state of Israel.    Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). Founded in 1981 by Palestinian students living in Egypt. A close ally of Iran. Vows to destroy Israel. Believed to have between 1,000 and 8,000 fighters under the brand "Al-Quds Brigades".     Al-Nasser Salah Al-Deen Brigades. Third largest faction, an ally of Hamas and PIJ. Contributes to the Gaza police force. Reported to have participated in joint attacks with Hamas including the kidnapping of Israeli soldier Shalit in 2006.     Mujahideen Brigades. The armed wing of the Palestinian Mujahideen Movement. Operates in both Gaza and West Bank. Also reported to have ties to Iran. In 2023 its spokesman warned that the issues of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons and confrontations over Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque were "a ticking time bomb'. (Source: bbc)

November 30, 2023  Israel and Hamas struck a last-minute agreement on Thursday (Nov 30) to extend their ceasefire for a seventh day. The truce was due to expire at 0500 GMT. It has allowed much needed humanitarian aid into Gaza after much of the coastal territory of 2.3 million people was reduced to wasteland by seven weeks of Israeli bombardment in retaliation for a deadly rampage by Hamas militants on Oct 7. Israel has sworn to annihilate Hamas, which rules Gaza, in response to the Oct 7 rampage by the militant group, when Israel says gunmen killed 1,200 people and took 240 hostages. Palestinian health authorities deemed reliable by the UN say more than 15,000 Gazans have been confirmed killed, around 40 per cent of them children. A further 6,500 are missing, many feared still buried under rubble. Israel, which has demanded Hamas release at least 10 hostages per day to keep the ceasefire going, said it received a list at the last minute of those who would go free on Thursday, allowing it to call off plans to resume fighting at dawn. Hamas, which freed 16 hostages on Wednesday while Israel released 30 Palestinian prisoners, also said the truce would continue for a seventh day. So far militants have released 97 hostages during the truce: 70 Israeli women and children, each freed in return for three Palestinian women and teenage detainees, plus 27 foreign hostages freed under parallel agreements with their governments. With fewer Israeli women and children left in captivity, extending the truce could require setting new terms for the release of Israeli men, including soldiers. Hamas had earlier said Israel had refused its offer to hand over seven women and children plus the bodies of three others. It said on Wednesday the youngest hostage, 10-month-old Bibas, had been killed along with his four-year-old brother and their mother in Israeli bombardment, a claim Israel said it was checking. The conditions of the ceasefire, including the halt of hostilities and the entry of humanitarian aid, remain the same, according to Qatar which has been a key mediator between the warring sides, along with Egypt and the US. Israel rejects a permanent ceasefire as benefitting Hamas, a position backed by Washington. Once the truce is over, Israel is expected to extend its ground campaign into the south. Two-thirds of Gazans are homeless, most of them sheltering in the south after Israel ordered the complete evacuation of the northern half of the tiny coastal strip. UN Secretary-General Guterres said on Wednesday the Gaza Strip was in the midst of an "epic humanitarian catastrophe", and he and others called for a full ceasefire to replace the temporary truce. Shortly after the agreement a deadly shooting in Jerusalem was a potent reminder of the potential for violence to spread. Israeli police said two Palestinian attackers opened fire at a bus stop during morning rush hour at the entrance to Jerusalem, killing at least three people. "Two terrorists arrived at the scene in a vehicle armed with firearms, these terrorists opened fire towards civilians at the bus station and were subsequently neutralised by security forces and a nearby civilian," the police said. Jordan will host a conference attended by the main UN, regional and international relief agencies on Thursday to coordinate aid to Gaza. (Source: asiaone)

Israel
Nov. 30, 2023  Failure of analysis and imagination. Israeli officials obtained Hamas’s battle plan for the Oct. 7 attack more than a year before it happened, documents, emails and interviews show. The approximately 40-page document, which Israeli authorities code-named 'Jericho Wall,' outlined, point by point, exactly the kind of devastating invasion that led to the deaths of about 1,200 people. It was among several versions of attack plans collected over the years. A 2016 Defense Ministry memorandum says: 'Hamas intends to move the next confrontation into Israeli territory.' Such an attack would most likely involve hostage-taking and 'occupying an Israeli community (and perhaps even a number of communities),' the memo reads. In September 2016, the defense minister’s office compiled a top-secret memorandum based on a much earlier iteration of a Hamas attack plan. The memorandum, which was signed by the defense minister at the time, Lieberman, said that an invasion and hostage-taking would 'lead to severe damage to the consciousness and morale of the citizens of Israel.' The memo said Hamas had purchased sophisticated weapons, GPS jammers and drones. It also said Hamas had increased its fighting force to 27,000 people - having added 6,000 to its ranks in a two-year period. Hamas had hoped to reach 40,000 by 2020, the memo determined. Hamas followed the 'Jericho Wal' blueprint with shocking precision. The document - which begins with a quote from the Quran: 'Surprise them through the gate. If you do, you will certainly prevail' - detailed barrage of rockets at the outset of the attack, to distract Israeli soldiers and send them hurrying into bunkers, drones to knock out the security cameras and automated machine guns along the border, and gunmen to pour into Israel en masse in paragliders, on motorcycles and on foot - all of which happened. Hamas fighters would break through 60 points in the wall, storming across the border into Israel. The plan also included details about the location and size of Israeli military forces, communication hubs and other sensitive information. One of the most important objectives outlined in the document was to overrun the Israeli military base in Re’im, which is home to the Gaza division responsible for protecting the region. Hamas carried out that objective Oct. 7, rampaging through Re’im and overrunning parts of the base. The translated document did not set a date for the attack, but described a methodical assault designed to overwhelm the fortifications around the Gaza Strip, take over Israeli cities and storm key military bases, including a division headquarters. All militaries write plans that they never use, and Israeli officials assessed that, even if Hamas invaded, it might muster a force of a few dozen, not the hundreds who ultimately attacked. The document circulated widely among Israeli military and intelligence leaders, but Israeli military and intelligence officials dismissed the plan as aspirational, considering it too difficult for Hamas to carry out. That belief was so ingrained in the Israeli government, officials said, that they disregarded growing evidence to the contrary. Last year, shortly after the document was obtained, officials in the Israeli military’s Gaza division said Hamas’ intentions were unclear. 'It is not yet possible to determine whether the plan has been fully accepted and how it will be manifested,' read a military assessment. The military’s Gaza division drafted its own intelligence assessment of this latest invasion plan. Hamas had 'decided to plan a new raid, unprecedented in its scope,' analysts wrote in the assessment. It said that Hamas intended to carry out a deception operation followed by a 'large-scale maneuver' with the aim of overwhelming the division. The Gaza division referred to the plan as a “compass.' In other words, the division determined that Hamas knew where it wanted to go but had not arrived there yet. On July 6, three months before the attacks, a veteran analyst with Unit 8200, Israel’s signals intelligence agency, warned that Hamas had conducted an intense, daylong training exercise that appeared similar to what was outlined in the blueprint. “I utterly refute that the scenario is imaginary,” the analyst wrote in the email exchanges. The Hamas training exercise, she said, fully matched 'the content of Jericho Wall.” But a colonel in the Gaza division brushed off her concerns, according to encrypted emails viewed. The colonel applauded the analysis but said the exercise was part of a 'totally imaginative' scenario, not an indication of Hamas’ ability to pull it off.' 'In short, let’s wait patiently,' the colonel wrote. The back-and-forth continued, with some colleagues supporting the analyst’s original conclusion. “It is a plan designed to start a war,” she added. The veteran Unit 8200 analyst wrote to a group of other intelligence experts that dozens of Hamas commandos had recently conducted training exercises, with senior Hamas commanders observing. The training included a dry run of shooting down Israeli aircraft and taking over a kibbutz and a military training base, killing all the cadets. During the exercise, Hamas fighters used the same phrase from the Quran that appeared at the top of the Jericho Wall attack plan, she wrote in the email exchanges viewed. The analyst warned that the drill closely followed the Jericho Wall plan, and that Hamas was building the capacity to carry it out. While ominous, none of the emails predicted that war was imminent. Nor did the analyst challenge the conventional wisdom among Israeli intelligence officials that Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, was not interested in war with Israel. But she correctly assessed that Hamas’ capabilities had drastically improved - the gap between the possible and the aspirational had narrowed significantly. The Israeli military was unprepared as terrorists streamed out of the Gaza Strip. The Jericho Wall document lays bare a yearslong cascade of missteps that culminated in what officials now regard as the worst Israeli intelligence failure since the surprise attack that led to the Arab-Israeli war of 1973. Israeli security officials have already acknowledged that they failed to protect the country. Israel had also misread Hamas’ actions - the group had negotiated for permits to allow Palestinians to work in Israel, which Israeli officials took as a sign that Hamas was not looking for a war. The government is expected to assemble a commission to study the events leading up to the attacks. (Source: seattletimes)

Red Sea
Thursday 30/11/2023  The Carney destroyer, a US Navy warship in the Red Sea shot down an Iran-produced drone launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. “Although its intentions are not known, the UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) was heading toward the warship,” the US Central Command, part of the US Department of Defence, said yesterday, adding that at the time the Carney was escorting two ships, one of which was carrying military equipment 'to the region'. An Israeli container shipping line said on Sunday, November 26, it expected longer sailing times for its vessels. Insurance industry sources said they expected war risk premiums to rise in the area, especially for Israel-linked shipping. (Source: thearabweekly)

Taiwan
November 30, 2023  At the meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents in California this month, the Chinese leader was telling his U.S. counterpart that reunification was "unstoppable." Self-ruled Taiwan is holding its presidential election in January, and this is under scrutiny including by policymakers in Beijing and Washington, as it could determine Taipei's ties with an increasingly bellicose Beijing. China is not likely to consider a major invasion of Taiwan for now grappling with domestic economic, financial and political challenges, the island's president Tsai said yesterday, although Beijing is attempting to sway the outcome in its favor. "I think the Chinese leadership at this juncture is overwhelmed by its internal challenges," Tsai told the 2023 DealBook Summit in New York. Tsai is not able to run in the upcoming election, as she will have completed the maximum of two terms in office. Asked if the United States' attempt to boost its chip manufacturing capabilities could make Washington's ties with Taipei less valuable in the long run, Tsai added that the island's current semiconductor industry cannot be replaced by anywhere else. (Source: voanews)

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