Egyik 19

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Europe

European Union
(15 May) 2024  "Demography of Europe" is an interactive publication released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In April 2020, a new European data collection on weekly death counts was launched. The main reason for this launch was to measure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparing the weekly deaths with the average for the same period from 2016 to 2019, the level of excess mortality, or the number of additional deaths, can be determined. In total there were around 1 964 000 additional deaths in the EU between March 2020 and February 2024, compared with the 2016-2019 average. From these additional deaths around 578 000 were in 2020, 658 000 in 2021, 515 000 in 2022, 206 000 in 2023, and 9 000 in January-February 2024. By the end of April 2023 – WHO chief declared end to COVID-19 as a global health emergency on 5 May 2023 – there were 1 789 000 additional deaths in the EU. National trends were quite varied across the EU. From March 2020 until February 2024, February 2023 and February 2024 were the only months when there was no excess mortality in the EU as a whole, when excess mortality fell to −1.0% and −1.2% due to around 4 000 and 5 000 fewer deaths, respectively, compared with February 2016-2019 average. Some of the mortality increase in July and August 2022 compared with the same months of the years 2020 and 2021 may be due to heatwaves that then affected parts of Europe. (Source: ec.europa *)
* Eurostat

North America

United States
05/15/24  Bird flu was first detected in dairy cows in March, though data from viral samples showed it had been circulating in cattle for at least four months prior. Some experts said there could have been widespread human exposure and asymptomatic spread among dairy workers. A federal order from the end of April requires mandatory testing of dairy cattle herds, but only if they are crossing state lines. CDC workers can’t conduct investigations without an invite from state or private landowners, and the agency doesn’t have the ability to require states to test within their own borders. Health and Human Services Secretary Becerra said the CDC is engaged in ongoing discussions with multiple states about setting up field investigation. “It’s critical that we are well-positioned to test, treat, prevent this virus from spreading,” Becerra told. Farmers have been reluctant to allow federal health officials onto their land to test potentially infected cattle amid uncertainty about how their businesses would be impacted. Farmworkers have also been reluctant to participate in screening, and experts said it’s likely due to a mix of fears over job loss, immigration status, language barriers and general distrust in public health systems. Exposure does not necessarily mean infection, but the more workers who are exposed to potentially infected cattle, the greater the risk. Each new infection in mammals provides the opportunity for the virus to mutate. Officials should be able to find workarounds, such as wastewater testing, Schultz-Cherry, an expert in animal influenza at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, said. “It is important for the public health officials at the state level, or the state veterinarians, or state ag officials, for us, to essentially communicate that it’s in the long-term best interest of the industry and all of us to make sure that we have as much information as possible,” Agriculture Secretary Vilsack told recently. “Producers obviously look at this circumstance and they see this as an animal health issue … so they may not fully appreciate and understand the approach that public health officials need to take in the circumstance,” Vilsack said. The agency is for the first time offering financial incentives for farms impacted by avian flu, including reimbursement for lost milk supply from infected cows. Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist and professor at the Vanderbilt University school of medicine, said dairy industry producers and workers don’t have the same relationship with public health as the poultry and egg industry does. “This is new for them; they’re more edgy and concerned,” Schaffner said. “All these diplomatic overtures and discussions are going on and are being led at the local level, because that’s where personnel are more comfortable. COVID developed a political veneer, and that impeded public health. That legacy still exists, and that may influence some of the caution in the dairy industry.” (Source: thehill *)
* Newspaper and digital media company based in Washington, D.C.

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Európa    Europe

Magyarország
2024.04.26.  Járványok mindig voltak és lesznek, de olyan mértékű pusztításokat nem végeztek, mint a középkorban – fogalmazott Hankó, a Magyar Gyógyszerész Kamara elnöke Covid-tanulságokat megvitató kerekasztal-beszélgetésen, a XXI. Század Intézetben tartott konferencián. Az infektológus megjegyezte, a karantén a pestis- vagy a kolerajárványok idején szinte az egyetlen védekezési eszköz volt a fertőzés terjedése ellen. Kötelező maszkhasználatot pedig több mint száz éve, a spanyolnátha idején már bevezettek, a Covid-járvány idején még erről is meg kellet győzni az embereket. „Az oltásszkepticizmussal hasonló a helyzet, pedig az egyik legsikeresebb népegészségügyi program Magyarországon a kötelező gyermekkori védőoltások protokollja mutatott rá az eseményen Szlávik infektológus, a Belvárosi Orvosi Centrum infektológus szakorvosa". A kanyaró ellen így értük el a 95 százalékos átoltottságot, amivel hazánkban a fertőzést sikerült kiiktatni. "Egészen biztosan lesz következő járvány, kérdés hogy az emberiség meg tudja-e akadályozni, hogy a koronavírushoz hasonló mértékű legyen” – fogalmazott. Szavai szerint a következő, egyelőre állatról emberre ritkán terjedő, kockázatosnak tartott vírus a madárinfluenza, ami ellen már megvan a lehetséges, nagy mennyiségben létrehozható védőoltás, ami abban az esetben jelent segítséget, ha a vírus emberről emberre is terjedne. „Egyelőre még itt nem tartunk, de már átlépett egy olyan határt, hogy bizonyos emlősöket megfertőz” – magyarázta. Hozzátette: a Sars-Covidnál a legnagyobb gondot az jelentette, hogy nem tudtunk olyan gyorsan hatalmas mennyiségben védőoltást kifejleszteni, mint ahogy szükség lett volna erre. A fekete himlő vagy a tbc terjedését is oltásokkal sikerült felszámolni, mégsem lehetett a koronavírus-járvány idején mindenkit meggyőzni az oltások hasznosságáról. A lakosság 60-70 százaléka kapott meg egy oltást, az idősek 70-80 százaléka legalább két oltást. A szakember szerint 80 százalék általános teljes oltottság elérése lett volna ideális. Ennek ellenére nem igaz, hogy a magyar emberek nagyobb arányban haltak meg, mint a szomszédos országokban. Nincsenek erre érvényes adatok – emelte ki. Hankó egyetlen magyar gyógyszerész házaspárról tud, akik áldozatul estek a fertőzésnek, annak ellenére, hogy a legszigorúbb korlátozások idején folyamatosan dolgoztak a patikusok. Mint mondta, nemcsak a hatósági korlátozások betartásával igyekeztek óvni kollégáikat, a szakmán belül központilag is hoztak bizonyos szabályokat. Az egyik, hogy a nagy forgalmú patikáknál a különböző műszakokban dolgozó gyógyszerészek nem találkoztak egymással, hogy ha az egyik csoportból valaki elkapta volna a fertőzést, a másik csoport tagjaira ne terjedjen át. Szlávik kedvezőtlenebb adatokról számolt be: a koronavírus áldozatainak 10 százalékát világszerte az egészségügyben dolgozók tették ki, mivel mind az orvosok, mind az ápolók a frontvonalban dolgoztak, már az oltóanyag megérkezése előtt is. „A járványügyi intézkedéseket lehet utólag kritizálni, csak nem szabad elfelejteni, hogy szükségállapotban a közegészségügynek félkatonai szervezetként kell működnie” – húzta alá. Hozzátette: infektológusként az oltások hasznosságát nem kérdőjelezte meg. Hankó is ezt támasztotta alá: 'amit a gyógyszerhatékonyság engedélyez, az megfelelő hatékonysággal bír'. A koronavírus-oltóanyag esetében ez a betegség súlyosabb lefolyásának megakadályozást jelenti, nem azt, hogy nem fertőződik meg az ember. Ő is elismerte, hogy vészhelyzetben gyors döntéseket kell hozni, de a szakmákkal intenzívebb párbeszédre lett volna szükség. A 2020-as időszakra visszaemlékezve elmondta, volt, hogy tollat sem lehetett biztosítani a recept aláírásához, vagy csak ablakon keresztül szolgálhatták ki a betegeket. Az intézkedések olyan gyorsan követték egymást, hogy az aktuális rendelet elolvasásával zárta a napot. Negyedévente írtuk át a protokollokat a koronavírus-járvány idején, mert az ismeretek változtak, születtek újabb és újabb kutatások – erősítette meg Szlávik, aki épp azt nevezte meg a járvány egyik pozitív hozadékának, hogy a közegészségügyi intézkedések gyorsabbá váltak. „A védekezéshez szükséges eszközök beszerzése mellett a tapasztalatok átadásának a gyorsasága is fontos volt, az első hatékonynak ítélt gyógyszereket rögtön beépítettük a kezelési gyakorlatba, csakúgy, mint az oltóanyagoknál” – mondta. Hankó szerint az ENSZ járványügyi paktuma üdvözlendő, de a lokális szempontokat nem szabad mellőzni, például, hogy adott helyzetben Magyarországon ezt hogyan lehetne alkalmazni. A konferencia korábbi felszólalóival egyetértett abban, hogy a kritikus anyagok gyártását, előállítását országhatáron belül meg kell oldani. Készül ezt illetően egy gyógyszerlista, amit szakmailag indokoltnak tart. (Forrás: index)

2024. április 25. Légúti figyelőszolgálat adatok - 2024. évi 16. hét: 2024. április 15 - 21.     A légúti figyelőszolgálat keretében kijelölt 24 kórház adatai alapján e héten 72 beteget vettek fel kórházba súlyos, akut légúti fertőzés (SARI) miatt, közülük 7-en részesültek intenzív/szubintenzív ellátásban. A 72 SARI beteg közül 7 betegnél RSV, 2-nél SARS-CoV-2 vírus okozott megbetegedést. Az RSV-pozitív betegek közül 5-en 2 évesek vagy annál fiatalabbak, a COVID-19 fertőzöttek közül egy 0 éves és egy 60 év feletti.     A figyelőszolgálatban résztvevő orvosok jelentései alapján végzett becslés szerint az országban 9 200-an fordultak orvoshoz influenzaszerű, 132 800-an pedig akut légúti fertőzés tüneteivel.   Influenzaszerű megbetegedés esetén a betegek közel 32%-a 0-14 éves gyermek, több mint 33% 15-34 éves fiatal felnőtt, több mint 24% a 35-59 évesek, közel 11% pedig a 60 éven felüliek korcsoportjába tartozik. Influenzás tünetekkel orvoshoz fordulás gyakorisága nyolc közigazgatási területen nőtt, hét közigazgatási területen csökkent, 5 közigazgatási területen nem változott az előző hét adataihoz viszonyítva. Laboratóriumi vizsgálattal igazolt, influenzavírus által okozott megbetegedéseket három vármegyében - Hevesben, Somogyban és Szabolcs-Szatmár-Beregben - diagnosztizáltak.   Akut légúti fertőzés esetén a betegek korcsoport szerinti megoszlása: közel 48%-uk 0-14 éves gyermek, több mint 25% 15-34 éves fiatal felnőtt, több mint 17% a 35-59 évesek, közel 10% a 60 éven felüliek korcsoportjába tartozó. Akut légúti megbetegedés halmozódásáról nem érkezett jelentés.     Légúti minta 140 betegtől érkezett a Nemzeti Népegészségügyi és Gyógyszerészeti Központ (NNGYK) Nemzeti Influenza Referencia Laboratóriumába.   A sentinel kórházak által beküldött 12 minta közül 4 betegnél RSV-t azonosítottak.   A sentinel orvosok által beküldött 102 minta közül 2 betegnél az influenza B, 4 betegnél az RSV, 8 betegnél a human metapneumovírus kóroki szerepét igazolták. Az influenza pozitivitási arány 2,0%, az RSV pozitivitási arány 3,9%, a HMPV pozitivitási arány 7,8%.     Hagyományos diagnosztikus célú vizsgálat keretében érkezett 26 légúti minta közül 1 influenza A(pdm09), 1 RSV, 1 adenovírus, 3 parainfluenza vírus, 1 rhinovírus, 1 bocavírus és 1 SARS-CoV-2 vírus pozitív. A 2023. év 40 – 2024. 16. hete között összesen 6 827 vizsgálati anyagot dolgoztak fel az NNGYK Nemzeti Influenza Referencia Laboratóriumban. Kilencszáznegyvenkilenc influenza A[759 influenza A(H1pdm09), 188 influenza A(H3), 2 influenza A(NT)], 75 influenza B, 356 RSV, 1 071 COVID-19 fertőzést igazoltak. Ötvenhét megbetegedést rhinovírus, 12-t parainfluenza, 8-at adenovírus, 167-et human metapneumovírus, 6-ot bocavírus okozott.     Az NNGYK - összevetve szennyvíz alapú vizsgálataival az Országos Mentőszolgálat sürgősségi ellátás adatait - egységesített felügyeleti rendszee keretében követi a szennyvízben az influenza és COVID-19 vírusterhelést és a sürgősségi ellátási igényt az Országos Mentőszolgálat oldaláról. Szennyvíz vizsgálatával olyan kórokozók is vizsgálhatók, amelyek nem képesek szennyvíz közvetítésével terjedni, mint például a SARS-CoV-2 vagy az influenza vírusok. A szennyvízvizsgálatok eredményei előre jelezhetnek irányzatokat az emberi megbetegedésekben, így hatékonyan kiegészíthetnek egyéb járványkövetési rendszereket. A koronavírus (SARS-CoV-2) örökítőanyag-terhelés emelkedését 1 héttel követi a mentőszolgálat hívásszámának növekedése. Az influenza szennyvízben mért vírusterhelésének emelkedését 2 héttel követi a sürgősségi ellátási igény növekedése.  Minden szennyvízmintában kimutatási határ alatti tartományban maradt az Influenza A vírusterhelése. Országos átlagterhelést tekintve pangás tapasztalható. Influenza esetszámok emelkedése a közeljövőben nem várható.  Országosan a szennyvíz SARS-CoV-2 örökítőanyag-terhelése e héten is alacsony értékű, pang, a minták többségénél a kimutatási határnál alacsonyabb. Minden helyszínen megrekedt áramlat jellemző. COVID-19 esetszámok emelkedése a közeljövőben nem várható. (Forrás: nnk *)
* "Nemzeti Népegészségügyi Központ"

2024. április 25.  Denevérvirológiai kutatás indul a Pécsi Tudományegyetemen, melynek Virológiai Nemzeti Laboratóriuma (VNL) az egyre ritkuló és szigorú természetvédelmi oltalom alatt álló denevérek vírusait kutató konzorciumhoz csatlakozott. Az „OneBAT” kutatási téma a Kulturális és Innovációs Minisztérium irányítása alá tartozó Nemzeti Kutatási Fejlesztési és Innovációs Alapból nyújtott, 126,6 millió forint vissza nem térítendő támogatásból valósul meg. A denevérek számos olyan vírust hordoznak, amelyek kiváló modellek lehetnek a különböző, állatról emberre terjedő vírusok elleni küzdelemben, fontos információkhoz juttathatva kutatókat járványok elleni felkészüléshez. A kutatás tizenhárom nemzetközi partner összefogásával valósul meg. A konzorcium célja az európai denevérekben előforduló vírusok vizsgálata, feltárni a természetes vírusgazdák, valamint az alkalmi gazdaszervezetek, a kórokozók és a környezet közötti összetett kölcsönhatásokat, amelyek meghatározzák a fertőző betegségek felbukkanását. A kutatási téma megvalósítása során olyan megújuló módszerek és eljárások kifejlesztése a cél, amelyekkel lehetővé válik az új fertőző betegségek gyors megismerése, az ellenük való védekezés kidolgozása. A kutatásba bevont állatok szerológiai és molekuláris biológiai vizsgálatára szolgáló gyors szabványok kifejlesztésén túl, Európa-szerte összhangba hozott hosszútávú betegség-környezettani felmérések is zajlanak. A OneBAT kutatás során vevőantennákat is telepítenek Magyarországon is, amelyek segítenek a repülő állatok viselkedésének, vonulásának vizsgálatában. (Forrás: portfolio)

Felvidék
2024. április 21. Hiány mutatkozik oltóanyagból. Kelet-Szlovákiában megjelent a sárgaság, már nem csak a falvakban, hanem a városokban, így Felsővízközön is. A higiénikusok a legtöbb esetet a város szélén található három lakóházban igazolták. A hepatitis A vírus széklettel ürül, és érintkezés útján terjed. Az esetek száma folyamatosan emelkedik. A helyiek elmondása szerint a járvány húsvétkor tört ki. Az év eleje óta 47 beteget regisztráltunk – mondta Senajová, járványügyi szakember. A betegség lappangási ideje ötven nap, így azok, akik kapcsolatba kerültek a fertőzöttekkel, közel két hónapig orvosi felügyelet alá kerülnek. Az orvosok az óvodás és iskolás korú gyermekek között azonosítják a legtöbb fertőzöttet. Fontos a személyes higiénia - nem szabad egy pohárból inni, és ugyanazt a szál cigarettát szívni – figyelmeztetett Senajová. (Forrás: ujszo)

Germany
(Friday), 26 April 2024  The spring festival, on the banks of the Neckar river, in Stuttgart, south-west Germany, opened last Saturday and runs for 23 days into next month, with a variety of rides, stalls, snack bars and marquees offering refreshments and entertainment. Last year it attracted 1.4 million visitors. Last weekend a norovirus outbreak has affected more than 800 people. They caught the vomiting bug in a marquee. The scale of infection has increased during the week. Visitors quickly complained of vomiting, nausea and diarrhoea. Rise in norovirus could put pressure on hospitals. By today afternoon, Stuttgart health officials said the number of people infected had reached 815. They believe it was not linked to food or drink served in the festival tent as marquee staff, as well as dishes and water used for washing them up have all tested negative. Officials said it was possible that some visitors may have passed the virus on through secondary infection. They are assuming the virus was passed from person to person, possibly through the air. There is no evidence of hygiene rules being broken. The main symptoms of norovirus are: Feeling sick (nausea); diarrhoea; being sick (vomiting). You may also have: A high temperature; a headache; aching arms and legs. (Source: bbc *)
* British Broadcasting Corporation

United Kingdom
25 April 2024  Two-million people across England and Scotland are still suffering from long Covid-19 symptoms, of whom 381,000 have had their day-to-day activities limited a lot, according to an official study published today. Data produced with the UK Health Security Agency, based on a sample of 139,000 participants show 3.3% of people surveyed between February 6 and March 7 reported having Covid-19 symptoms that had lasted more than four weeks since an initial infection and were not explained by another medical condition, Britain's Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. This was up slightly from the 2.9% of people who reported long Covid-19 in a similar ONS survey in March 2023 which covered the whole UK, although the ONS said the two surveys' methods were not exactly comparable. Of the people reporting long Covid-19 symptoms, 51% said they started more than two years ago, and 71% said they had lasted at least a year. People aged 45-54 were most likely to report long Covid-19 symptoms, at 5% of the age group, and women were 20% more likely to report symptoms than men. The data showed that 9.1% of people who were not working or looking for work reported long Covid-19 symptoms, nearly triple the rate among the population as a whole. In Britain labour force participation has fallen since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, troubling the government and employers. Britain recorded more than 230,000 Covid-19 deaths. A big factor has been an increase in the number of working-age people who are long-term sick, which has risen by around 700,000 since the pandemic. (Source: timeslive * / Reuters)
* from South Africa

Africa

Nigeria
April 28, 2024  Measles outbreak kills 42 children in Adamawa State, Northeast Nigeria. The outbreak of the disease was recorded in the Mubi North (23 deaths) and Gombi (19 deaths) local government areas. So far, there are over 200 infected children. There's also a suspected polio case in Gombi. A team of medical workers has been discharged to the affected communities to tackle the two outbreaks. When contacted, the state health commissioner, Tangwami confirmed the outbreak but said that "details, including mortalities will be given tomorrow at a press briefing to be addressed by the deputy governor". (Source: saharareporters *)
* Sahara Reporters, based in New York City

Asia

China
April 30, 2024  Chinese scientist Zhang who published first sequence of COVID virus in China in early January 2020 protests after being evicted from lab. Yesterday he wrote the post on Chinese social media platform Weibo that he and his team were suddenly notified they were being evicted from their lab, the latest in a series of setbacks, demotions and ousters. The post was later deleted. Source: (Source: apnews *)
* Associated Press, headquartered in New York City.

April 22, 2024  Secrecy clouds the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak. When Chinese authorities first started searching for the virus’ origins is unclear. WHO officials heard of an inspection of the Wuhan market on Dec. 25, 2019. According to a recording of a confidential WHO meeting, WHO’s top virus expert, Ben Embarek, told colleagues that Chinese officials that day were “looking at what was on sale in the market, whether all the vendors have licenses (and) if there was any illegal (wildlife) trade.” Ben Embarek said the probe was “not routine” and WHO would “try to figure out what happened.” Such a probe has never been publicly mentioned by Chinese authorities or WHO. Feuding officials and fear of blame ended meaningful Chinese and international efforts to trace the virus almost as soon as they began. The first publicly known search took place for the coronavirus on Dec. 31, 2019, when Chinese Center for Disease Control scientists visited the Wuhan market where many early COVID-19 cases surfaced. Early on, Chinese scientists were silenced and politicians took control. Zhang was the first scientist to publish a sequence of the COVID-19 virus. One day after he wrote a memo urging health authorities to act quickly, China’s top health official ordered his lab closed. “They used their official power against me and our colleagues,” Zhang wrote in an email provided by Holmes, an Australian virologist. The government opened investigations into top health officials. China CDC staff were encouraged to report colleagues who mishandled the outbreak to the Communist Party’s disciplinary bodies. As criticism of China grew, the Chinese government deflected blame. They declared their virus response a success and closed investigations into the officials with few job losses. There were no real reforms, because doing reforms means admitting fault. As WHO negotiated with China for a mission to investigate COVID-19 in early 2020, it was China’s Foreign Ministry, not scientists, that decided the terms. China refused a visa for WHO’s Ben Embarek, then the agency’s top animal virus expert. The itinerary dropped nearly all the items linked to an origins search, according to draft agendas. Taking charge of the WHO visit was Liang, an epidemiologist close to top Chinese officials who was widely seen as pushing the party line, not science-backed policies. Liang ordered the Wuhan market disinfected before samples could be collected and promoted a theory that COVID-19 originated from frozen food imported into China. On a train ride with Dr. Aylward, a senior adviser to WHO chief Tedros, Liang lobbied the U.N. agency to praise China’s response in its public report. The new section was so flattering that colleagues emailed Aylward to suggest he “dial it back a bit.” By the time WHO led another visit to Wuhan in January 2021, the origins hunt had become highly politicized. Liang, the Chinese official in charge of two earlier WHO visits, 'organized market workers to tell WHO experts no live wildlife was sold and cut recent photos of wildlife at the market from the report'. The WHO team concluded a lab leak was “extremely unlikely.” Months later, WHO chief said it was “premature” to dismiss the lab leak theory and pressed China to be more transparent, infuriating Chinese officials. China told WHO any future missions to find the origins of COVID-19 should be 'elsewhere'. 'Since then', global cooperation has ground to a halt. Chinese scientists are still under heavy pressure. Researchers who published papers on the coronavirus ran into trouble with Chinese authorities. Others were barred from travel abroad for conferences and WHO meetings. The head of the China CDC Institute of Viral Disease was forced to retire 'over the release of sensitive market data', according to a former China CDC official. “It has to do with the origins, so they’re still worried,” the official said. “If you try and get to the bottom of it, what if it turns out to be from China?”
(Source: apnews)
Note: Original article 'by Kang, a Pulitzer finalist for investigative reporting in China who covers Chinese politics, technology and society from Beijing' and 'Cheng, who reported from Geneva'.

North America

United States
Apr 29, 2024  A Florida dolphin was discovered with "highly pathogenic" avian influenza virus, also known as HPAIV, isolated virus detected in the dolphin's brain tissue, according to a study made by University of Florida researchers, detailed in a paper in the online journal Communications Biology. A global outbreak of bird flu started in 2020. The virus was first detected in North America in 2021. The dolphin was first found "in distress" in March 2022 after it became stuck in a Dixie County canal. It died shortly after a rescue team arrived. The samples were found in a postmortem exam which showed many severe health problems, including inflammation of the brain and leptomeninges disease. It's not known how the dolphin may have contracted the flu, said Webby, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza in Animals and Birds at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. The researchers also said that in 2022 there had also been harbor seals and gray seals dying from the virus. A small amount of those that died also had neurological symptoms. In the U.S., the disease has been particularly widespread in marine mammals in Maine. It has also been detected in seals in Puget Sound, Washington state. It has been spreading particularly quickly in South America. (Source: newsweek)

April 26, 2024  In an update published this week, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has found that about 1 in 5 samples of retail milk contain traces of highly contagious bird flu, though these findings may not be indicative of an infectious risk to consumers. "The agency continues to analyze this information; however, the initial results show about 1 in 5 of the retail samples tested are quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)-positive for [Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza] viral fragments, with a greater proportion of positive results coming from milk in areas with infected herds". The FDA noted that additional testing will be required to determine if intact pathogens are actually present in the milk and if consuming these products poses a risk of infection. "To date, the retail milk studies have shown no results that would change our assessment that the commercial milk supply is safe," the agency shared, citing the pasteurization process that retail milk undergoes as well as the diverting and destroying of milk from infected cows. The agency also reiterated its long-standing warning against drinking raw milk. (Source: thestate *)
* The State, USA

April 26, 2024 2:46 PM  Three women likely were infected with HIV after undergoing 'vampire facials' at an unlicensed New Mexico spa, the first known instance of the virus being transmitted through cosmetic injection services. According to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report released today, the investigation began in summer 2018 when a woman with no known HIV risk factors was diagnosed. HIV is transmitted via contact with bodily fluids from an infected person, which is why it is most often contracted through sex or the sharing of needles. The patient reported no injection drug use, recent blood transfusions, or recent sexual contact with anyone other than her current sexual partner, who received a negative HIV test result after the patient's diagnosis. However, the patient said she underwent a so-called 'vampire facial,' a cosmetic procedure that draws a client's blood, separates the platelets, and then reinjects the platelet-rich blood into their face through microneedles. Proponents of vampire facials say it helps plump sagging skin and reduces the appearance of acne scars or wrinkles. The American Academy of Dermatology (AAD) said there's little evidence to support it. The facials seem safe as long as blood is handled properly. Investigators compiled and cross-referenced names and telephone numbers from client consent forms, handwritten appointment records, and telephone contacts to create a list of potentially affected clients.. Investigators found five patients with confirmed spa-related HIV infections, including one who had tested positive for HIV two years before getting a vampire facial in 2018, and a sexual partner of the woman. The other three patients identified had no known social contact with one another, and the only thing they had in common was the procedure done at the spa. Two of the five patients had previously received a positive rapid HIV test result during routine evaluations for life insurance. In 2022, the spa's owner pleaded guilty to five felony counts of practicing medicine without a license and is now serving a 3 1/2-year prison sentence  Within months of the positive test, the Albuquerque salon was shut down. One patient was diagnosed after hospitalization with an AIDS-defining illness in fall 2021, and another after being hospitalized in spring 2023. The New Mexico Department of Health said it had "identified practices that could potentially spread blood-borne infections, such as HIV, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C to clients.' Investigators found a rack of unlabeled tubes containing blood and medical injectables, such as Botox and lidocaine, stored in the kitchen refrigerator along with food. Unwrapped syringes were found in drawers, on counters, and discarded in regular trash cans. There was no steam sterilizer, and equipment that was meant to be single use, like disposable electric desiccator tips, was being reused. The spa's owner operated without appropriate licenses at multiple locations and did not have an appointment scheduling system that stored client contact information. (Source: thestate *)
* The State, USA

(Thursday), 4/25/2024 'The virus reemerged in Europe in 2020'. It has since killed tens of millions of birds and more than 40,000 sea lions and seals in South America. World Health Organization chief scientist Farrar called this an 'animal pandemic' on April 18. The H5N1 bird flu virus is spreading through US cattle herds for the first time. The cow-to-cow transmission is the latest escalation in a global outbreak. Genetic fragments of the virus, discovered in grocery store milk on April 23, suggest the cattle outbreak is more widespread than officials believed. Experts told that drinking pasteurized milk is probably still safe. Pasteurization deactivates pathogens, probably including H5N1, according to the Food and Drug Administration. However, no studies have specifically tested whether pasteurizing milk deactivates H5N1. The FDA is testing that now. The mammal-to-mammal transmission has scientists worried the virus could mutate to spread between humans. There has been no known human-to-human transmission. Dr. Adams, a former surgeon general and the director of health equity at Purdue University, is getting deja vu. He fears the US is making the mistakes of 2020 all over again. "If it keeps spreading in animals, then it is eventually going to cause problems for humans, either because we don't have food because they've got to start exterminating flocks, or because it starts to make a jump in humans," Adams, who served under former President Trump and was on the administration's initial COVID-19 task force, told. "The more it replicates, the more chances it has to mutate." Though he agrees with the CDC's assessment that the current risk to humans is low, Adams fears the US is repeating many mistakes it made in the early days of COVID-19. Who is in charge of an animal pandemic in the US? The CDC? The US Department of Agriculture? The FDA? The answer is, sort of, all of them. So far, the USDA has only been testing cattle herds when an animal appears sick. That means asymptomatic spread could be flying under the radar. "An animal can't tell you, 'Hey, I feel a little under the weather today.' So they're literally waiting until an animal is collapsing or showing fatigue or showing severe symptoms,' Adams said. "We need a testing strategy that is proactive and allows true surveillance, and not reactive." The USDA took a step forward yesterday, ordering that all lactating dairy cows must be tested for H5N1 before they're moved across state lines and that all positive test results must be reported. New York Times columnist Tufekci reported that same day that, until now, the USDA has not been keeping track of positive test results in cattle. The decentralized responsibility could be behind the lack of widespread, clear public messaging so far. For example, Adams says he hasn't changed anything about his diet, since pasteurization and proper cooking procedures should kill any live virus present. But he isn't sure everyone is getting the message. He compared it to the development of COVID-19 vaccines, when people distrusted a process they didn't understand. "The public needs good consistent communication from the White House, from the USDA, helping reassure them what the process is to keep them safe," Adams said. 'The Biden administration, particularly the White House, has been incredibly quiet on this bird flu situation. Why? To me, it looks like they very much don't want to scare the public and spook the economy in an election year,' Adams said. Just like the lockdowns of COVID-19 were devastating for the restaurant and hospitality industries, a crackdown on avian flu can be devastating 'to the chicken industry'. "We're seeing the same tension between business interests and public health interests,' Adams said. Rather than consumers, the people most at risk are agricultural workers or anyone with close or prolonged exposure to chickens or cattle. It's those groups who need strong, targeted guidance right now, Adams said. What's more, many of the workers who handle chickens and cattle are undocumented immigrants. That can make them and their bosses hesitant to call in authorities over diseased animals. Many vulnerable groups were hesitant to report illness in the early COVID days, too, including migrant workers and people who didn't have sick leave from work. "My concern is we keep making the same mistakes over and over again,' Adams said. 'Because we keep focusing on the wrong things instead of focusing on the root causes." (Source: msn * / Business Insider)
* Microsoft

(Thursday), 4/25/2024  This strain of avian flu has been circulating for more than 20 years, but its leap into cows is of significant concern. While avian flu has infected humans - especially in Asia - the virus has yet to prove able to spread efficiently in people. But the more the virus jumps animal to animal, the greater the chance mutations will emerge that allow sustained person-to-person transmission, the required next step for a pandemic. As bird flu spreads in cows, fractured U.S. response has echoes of early covid. Federal agencies with competing interests are slowing the country’s ability to track and control an outbreak of highly virulent bird flu that for the first time is infecting cows in the United States. “This requires multiple agencies to coordinate and communicate internally, but most importantly externally, which doesn’t seem to be happening due to different cultures, priorities, legal responsibilities, scientific expertise, and agility,' said Jetelina, an epidemiologist who writes a weekly infectious-diseases newsletter and has closely tracked the avian flu outbreak. “Mix that in with the usual challenges of scientific uncertainty, complexity and, quite frankly global pressure, and you got yourself an utterly, unacceptable mess.' The response has echoes of the early days of 2020, when the coronavirus began its deadly march around the world. Today, some officials and experts express frustration that more livestock herds aren’t being tested for avian flu, and that when tests and epidemiological studies are conducted, results aren’t shared fast enough or with enough detail. They point, in particular, to a failure to provide more details publicly about how the H5N1 virus is spreading in cows and about the safety of the milk supply. They said the lack of clear and timely updates by some federal agencies responding to the outbreak recall similar communication missteps at the start of the coronavirus pandemic. They fear that the delays could allow the pathogen to move unchecked - and potentially acquire the genetic machinery needed to spread swiftly among people. One dairy worker in Texas has already fallen ill amid the outbreak, the second U.S. case ever of this type of bird flu. A senior administration official said there have been “no competing interests.” The White House’s Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy is coordinating the outbreak response with relevant agencies “that are working quickly and methodically.” The government is “committed to sharing results as soon as possible,” said the official. “This work is an urgent priority as we work to ensure the continued effectiveness of the federal-state milk safety system and reinforce [the Food and Drug Administration’s] current assessment that the commercial milk supply is safe,” the administration official said. Until yesterday, testing for H5N1 in dairy herds was voluntary and limited to cows with certain symptoms. The number of tests per farm was limited, too. That protocol provoked sharp criticism from public health experts. With growing evidence that the virus is more widespread than feared among cows, the U.S. Agriculture Department (USDA) announced yesterday that lactating dairy cows must be tested for bird flu before moving across state lines, starting Monday. Responsibility for monitoring and containing the outbreak is divided among three agencies. USDA leads the investigation into the virus in cows, the FDA oversees food safety, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is monitoring risks to people. For weeks, key federal agencies have expressed confidence in the safety of the commercial milk supply, including pasteurized products sold at grocery stores. But it was two weeks before the FDA responded directly to questions about whether the agency was testing milk on grocery store shelves for H5N1. On April 23, the agency confirmed that viral particles had been found “in some of the samples,” but it declined to provide details. Yesterday, an FDA official confirmed fragments were found in milk on shelves but declined to say how many samples the agency has tested, how many had virus fragments and where the milk originated. The testing does not indicate whether genetic traces of the virus are active or dead. Yesterday marked the first time since bird flu was detected in cows four weeks ago that CDC, FDA and USDA, along with other agencies, held a news briefing jointly. During the yesterday webinar, Prater, acting director of the FDA’s Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, said early results showed 1 of 5 samples had viral fragments, “maybe with some preponderance for areas with known [infected dairy] herds.” He did not say how many samples were tested, or from what parts of the country. Additional tests must be done to check whether the virus is infectious. Even with these results, the agency has seen nothing to change its assessment that the commercial milk supply remains safe, Prater said. Officials are seeking answers to other key questions: They want to know whether the virus is spreading among cows through mechanical means, such as milking equipment, as evidence suggests, or through the air, which would be more dangerous and lead to more sustained spread. They are also interested in knowing how long livestock will shed virus in their milk once they have recovered from an infection. And, crucially, they will seek to ascertain the risks for human exposure and whether protocols are in place at the state level if additional people test positive. “Given this is a novel outbreak, testing needs to be done widely and rapidly, investigators need to be on affected farms, and scientists and policymakers need to be bringing it all together to set a coordinated plan of action,” Inglesby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said last week. He was the White House testing czar during the Biden administration’s coronavirus response. “This is about protecting human health, protecting farmworkers that may be in harm’s way and preventing another pandemic from happening,” said Nuzzo, director of the Pandemic Center at the Brown University School of Public Health. Nearly three dozen livestock herds in eight states have been infected in the last month. The virus has also spread from dairy farms to poultry farms and infected barn cats. Epidemiologists fear that indicates cows can pass the virus to birds, and possibly other animals, broadening the potential for spread. Worobey, a University of Arizona virologist who led a team of scientists who analyzed 239 genetic sequences released Sunday by the USDA, said the evolutionary tree of the virus “resoundingly indicates that this outbreak had a single origin and that it had been circulating under our noses for months before it was noticed.” All of these outbreaks in at least eight different states traced back to a common ancestor that had been around probably since late 2023. The USDA was too slow in sharing critical genetic data initially, and when “a big dump” of 239 genetic sequences arrived Sunday, it was not comprehensive. “Like what samples they are coming from, when exactly they were collected … and where exactly they were collected,” said Rasmussen, a virologist and principal research scientist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada. Public health and veterinary experts say they also want more epidemiological data - including information on the movement of animals, their feed sources and how many workers are on-site - to understand how and where the virus is circulating. USDA officials may be constrained by their mission to promote new markets for farmers and protect animal health and welfare. They’ve got two missions that are, in this instance, pointing in different directions. “USDA’s top priority is containing this emerging animal health issue,” USDA spokeswoman Perry said. While H5N1 is typically fatal in poultry, the disease in infected cows has been relatively mild, and animals have recovered in a week to 10 days, according to agriculture officials. The agency has been testing sick and healthy cows in affected herds, and in recent days began testing in unaffected herds, she said last week. The biggest challenge so far has been identifying farms willing to share samples, said Sifford, the USDA’s chief veterinary officer. “Lots of farms aren’t raising their hands to be tested because they don’t want to be known as having an infected herd,” said Poulsen, director of the veterinary diagnostic lab at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The virus appears to be spreading in cows that are producing milk “and the place that those animals are most closely congregated, have the most contact, would be as they’re moving through the milking parlor,” Sifford said. “We are not seeing this virus moving outside the lactating herd.” The lack of more aggressive testing of livestock and transparent data-sharing has frustrated officials at the Department of Health and Human Services. State health officials have tested at least 23 people; only the dairy worker in Texas, who has since recovered, was confirmed positive. Ongoing surveillance of emergency department visits and flu testing results in regions with bird flu have not identified any unusual or concerning patterns, the CDC’s principal deputy director, Shah, said yesterday. The risk to the public from bird flu remains low. But milk producers are waiting for the USDA’s detailed guidance to know how many tests may need to be performed on milk cows, estimated to number about 8 million, Jonker, chief science officer for the National Milk Producers Federation said. At highest risk are farmworkers, who, like many in the agriculture sector, are undocumented or do not wish to interact with the government, Shah said. In an emergency call three weeks ago with state health and lab officials, Shah laid out a detailed list of operational questions state officials needed to answer to prepare for potential exposures in people. “What nurse and what epidemiologist have you trained up to do this? Do you have the [nasal] swabs ready? Do they know how to approach that conversation in a culturally competent and linguistically competent manner? … Is the lab ready to go?” (Source: msn * / The Washington Post)
* Microsoft

Wednesday, April 24, 2024  The bird flu outbreak in American dairy cattle may have begun in January, or even as early as December, a new analysis of genetic data suggests. Some farmers in Texas had been reporting sick cows since at least February. It has since reported cases in dozens of herds in eight states. The most likely source is feces or other secretions from a wild bird infected with the virus. The Department of Agriculture announced in late March that dairy cattle in Texas and Kansas had tested positive for the virus, called H5N1. It is highly lethal in birds, but so far has led to mostly mild symptoms in cattle and in one farmworker in Texas who became infected. Infected dairy cows seem to carry large amounts of virus in their milk, which turns thick and yellowish. Cows are not usually infected with this type of influenza, and federal officials spent weeks trying to identify the cause of the outbreak. Scientists have criticized federal agencies for withholding key information about the outbreaks, including genetic sequences of the virus from infected cows. On Sunday, the department published 239 genetic sequences, but it omitted some details regarding the locations from which they were obtained and the dates. Yesterday, federal health officials said they had discovered fragments of H5N1 in milk samples obtained at various sites across the nation. The fragments pose no threat to consumers, the officials said. The sequences all carried the same set of mutations that allow the virus to infect mammals - which would be unlikely had the virus jumped from birds to cows more than once, Dr. Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona said. But the Department of Agriculture has released little information on other aspects of the outbreak, including how long cows remain ill and how long it takes them to clear the virus from their bodies, said Dr. Bhadelia, director of the Boston University Center on Emerging Infectious Diseases. “If this really is something that’s been going on for this long, it seems quite plausible that it’s moved already out of the U.S.,” Dr. Worobey said. Canada imports cattle from the United States, he noted. Federal scientists are just beginning to analyze more samples from cows without symptoms to learn whether the outbreak may be more widespread than initially thought. But rather than research each potential pathogen, officials could have turned to a technique called metagenomic sequencing, in which samples can be tested for nearly all known pathogens at once. That technique is more expensive but would save valuable time in situations like this, Dr. Worobey said. (Source: dnyuz / The New York Times)

Globalizáció    Globalization

2024.04.28.  Az Egészségügyi Világszervezet (WHO) szeptemberben felülvizsgálja egyes országok kanyaró megbetegedéses helyzetét – mondta O’Connor, a WHO munkatársa az European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) globális kongresszusán Barcelonában április 27-én. Most az Egyesült Királyság is kanyarós vészhelyzettel néz szembe, mivel idén csaknem 900 esetet tartanak nyilván a 2023. évi 368 esethez képest. Tavaly West Midlands-ben járvány kezdődött, amely mára az ország minden régiójára átterjedt. Kanyarós megbetegedések többsége alacsony és alsó-közepes jövedelmű országokban fordult elő - a legmagasabb arányban Azerbajdzsánban, Kirgizisztánban és Jemenben. Világszerte 321 582 megbetegedés volt 2023-ban – ez 88%-os növekedés az előző évhez képest, amikor 171 153 esetet tartottak nyilván. A folyamat 2024-ben tovább erősödhet. (Forrás: index)

Saturday, 27 April 2024  Antibiotics saw “extensive overuse” globally among hospitalized COVID-19 patients during the pandemic without improving clinical outcomes, while also potentially increasing the already serious and growing threat of antimicrobial resistance from "superbugs", the UN World Health Organization (WHO) said today. Their ystematic prescription 'might create harm for people without bacterial infection, compared to those not receiving antibiotics,” WHO said. The findings were based on data from the WHO Global Clinical Platform for COVID-19, a database of anonymous clinical data from patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Data came from 450,000 patients in 65 countries from January 2020 to March 2023. Antibiotic use ranged from 33 per cent for patients in the Western Pacific Region to 83 per cent in the Eastern Mediterranean and the African Regions. Between 2020 and 2022, prescriptions decreased over time in Europe and the Americas, but they increased in Africa. Most antibiotics were given to critically ill COVID-19 patients at a global average of 81 per cent. Antibiotic use in mild or moderate infections showed considerable variation across regions, with highest use in Africa, at 79 per cent. The most frequently prescribed bacteria-busting antibiotics globally were those with higher potential for antimicrobial resistance (AMR) to antibiotics. When they are unnecessary, they offer no benefit while posing risks, and their use contributes to the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance, said Dr Bertagnolio, WHO Unit Head for Surveillance, Evidence and Laboratory Strengthening, Division for AMR. WHO noted that although just eight per cent of hospitalized coronavirus patients also had bacterial infections which can be treated with antibiotics, a staggering three in four were given them on a 'just in case' basis. The UN health agency report maintained that antibiotic use “did not improve clinical outcomes for patients with COVID-19”. “The advice was very clear from the start, that this was a virus. So it wasn’t that there was any guidance or any recommendation that that clinicians go in this direction, but perhaps because people were dealing with something completely new, they were looking for whatever they thought might be appropriate.” Antimicrobials - including antibiotics, antivirals, antifungals and antiparasitics - are medicines used to prevent and treat infections in humans, animals and plants. Microorganisms that develop antimicrobial resistance are sometimes referred to as “superbugs”. Antimicrobial resistance threatens the prevention and treatment of an ever-increasing range of infections caused by bacteria, parasites, viruses and fungi. It occurs when bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites change over time and no longer respond to medicines making infections harder to treat and increasing the risk of disease spread, severe illness and death. As a result, the medicines become ineffective and infections persist in the body, increasing the risk of spread to others. (Source: scoop *)
* Scoop, Australia

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South America

Argentina
April 9, 2024  The dengue virus has exploded across Latin America over the past muggy weeks of summer in the Southern Hemisphere. Argentina contends with its worst outbreak of dengue fever in recent memory. It means the Aedes aegypti mosquito has widened its range. Dengue infections in Argentina have soared to over 180,500 this season, including 129 deaths. That’s six times higher than last season’s count, which was already the worst on record. Recent drenching rains that flooded Buenos Aires have created ideal breeding conditions for mosquitoes. “Transmission never stopped in the previous season, because less cold winters are favorable for adult mosquitoes,” said Lloveras, a specialist at the Francisco Javier Muñiz Infectious Diseases Hospital in Buenos Aires. “The magnitude is really worrisome, because there is a lot of demand on our health system". Shelves of mosquito repellent are empty as residents hunt in vain and resort to DIY alternatives. The product for avoid the bite of the mosquito that transmits the disease is sold out in virtually all Buenos Aires stores and going for shocking, exorbitant prices online, even to Argentines accustomed to triple-digit inflation, in some cases as much as ten times the retail value. Since February, wholesalers have hiked prices and some Argentines have stockpiled repellent to resell when stories run out. Now most lotions and sprays online fetch between $20 and $40 - five or 10 times the original market price. Rampant hoarding and surging prices have stoked desperation. “That’s a day’s wage', said 53-year-old Contrares, a seller of Gaucho-themed knickknacks in northern Buenos Aires. "Who can afford that?" Contrares and other Argentines are resorting to homespun methods to keep bugs away. He sets egg cartons alight and tosses citronella incense sticks into tiny crackling fires. Other people's technique mixing coffee grounds with garlic cloves to fend off the flying insects. Buenos Aires’ municipal health minister, Quirós, hosted a dengue prevention workshop last week in a crowded shantytown where sanitation is poor and mosquitoes abound. Instagram videos show him instructing residents how to make repellent at home with heaps of herbs and boiled essential oil, both well beyond their purchasing power. And the final step? “Cover and let it rest for 40 days.' Political opponents of Libertarian President Milei’s have used the repellent crisis to criticize the government’s push to deregulate the economy and scrap price controls. In one widely shared video from a market in the town of El Talar outside the capital on April 4, shoppers are seen descending on an employee opening new boxes of bug spray, snatching up stock before he could place a single bottle on a shelf. On that day, as public outrage mounted and the repellent shortage evolved from nuisance to national news, the government - busy battling sky-high inflation and near-daily protests - was forced to intervene: Health Minister Russo has his first TV appearance since the dengue outbreak on the local Telefé channel. He said that authorities lifted import restrictions on foreign-made mosquito repellents to boost supply and announced they would ramp up production at local labs. When asked how Argentines should protect themselves in the meantime, he offered a warning that was instantly mocked on social media: “Be careful with shorts”. (Source: apnews *)
* Associated Press

World Health Organization

9 April 2024  More than 6000 people are getting newly infected with viral hepatitis each day. Every day, there are 3500 people dying globally due to hepatitis B and C infections. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) 2024 Global Hepatitis Report released at the World Hepatitis Summit, the viral hepatitis disease is the second leading infectious cause of death globally. New data from 187 countries show that the estimated number of deaths from viral hepatitis increased from 1.1 million in 2019 to 1.3 million in 2022, the same as tuberculosis, a top infectious killer. Updated WHO estimates indicate that 83% - 254 million people - live with hepatitis B and 50 million with hepatitis C in 2022. Half the burden of chronic hepatitis B and C infections is among people 30–54 years old, with 12% among children under 18 years of age. Men account for 58% of all cases. In 2022, there were 2.2 million new infections, down from 2.5 million in 2019. These include 1.2 million new hepatitis B infections and nearly 1 million new hepatitis C infections. Prevention measures such as immunization and safe injections, along with the expansion of hepatitis C treatment, have contributed to reducing the incidence. The report highlights that despite better tools for diagnosis and treatment, and decreasing product prices, testing and treatment coverage rates have stalled. Far too few people with hepatitis are being diagnosed and treated, said WHO Director-General Dr Ghebreyesus. Across all regions, only 13% of people living with chronic hepatitis B infection had been diagnosed and approximately 3% (7 million) had received antiviral therapy at the end of 2022. Regarding hepatitis C, 36% had been diagnosed and 20% (12.5 million) had received curative treatment. The burden of viral hepatitis varies regionally. The WHO African Region bears 63% of new hepatitis B infections, yet despite this burden, only 18% of newborns in the region receive the hepatitis B birth-dose vaccination. In the Western Pacific Region, which accounts for 47% of hepatitis B deaths, treatment coverage stands at 23% among people diagnosed, which is far too low to reduce mortality. Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, the Russian Federation and 'Viet Nam', collectively shoulder nearly two-thirds of the global burden of hepatitis B and C. These results fall well below the global targets to treat 80% of people living with chronic hepatitis B and hepatitis C by 2030. Despite the availability of affordable generic viral hepatitis medicines, many countries fail to procure them at lower prices. Pricing disparities persist both across and within WHO regions, with many countries paying above global benchmarks, even for off-patent drugs or when included in voluntary licensing agreements. For example, although tenofovir for treatment of hepatitis B is off patent and available at a global benchmark price of US$2.4 per month, only 7 of the 26 reporting countries paid prices at or below the benchmark. Similarly, a 12-week course of pangenotypic sofosbuvir/daclatasvir to treat hepatitis C is available at a global benchmark price of US$60, yet only 4 of 24 reporting countries paid prices at or below the benchmark. Only 60% of reporting countries offer viral hepatitis testing and treatment services free of charge, either entirely or partially, in the public sector. Financial protection is lower in the African Region, where only about one third of reporting countries provide these services free of charge. Funding for viral hepatitis both at a global level or within dedicated country health budgets, is not sufficient to meet the needs. This arises from a combination of factors, including limited awareness of cost-saving interventions and tools, as well as competing priorities in global health agendas. This report seeks to shed light on strategies for countries to address these inequities and access the tools at the most affordable prices available. 'The WHO elimination goal by 2030 should still be achievable, if swift actions are taken now'. They include:   Expanding access to testing and diagnostics;   Shifting from policies to implementation for equitable treatment;   Strengthening primary care prevention efforts;   Simplifying service delivery, optimizing product regulation and supply;   Developing investment cases in priority countries;   Mobilizing innovative financing;   Using improved data for action;   Engaging affected communities and civil society and advancing research for improved diagnostics and potential cures for hepatitis B. (Source: who)

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Magyarország
(Kedd), 2024.01.30.  Berretta: - Másfél hónapja nyomást gyakorolnak Önre az európai partnerei, hogy fogadjon el egy 50 milliárd euro-s segélyezési tervet Ukrajna számára az európai költségvetésből. Csütörtökön mit fog javasolni?
- Semmi nem változott. Tehát a magyar álláspont továbbra is egyértelmű: ahogy telik az idő, továbbra is úgy gondoljuk, hogy az ukrajnai háborúnak nincs katonai megoldása. Sajnos a 26 másik fél még mindig úgy gondolja, hogy van katonai megoldás. Az ő javaslatuk a katonai megoldás irányába mutat, amit én nem támogatok. És a magyaroknak sem tetszik. Mi úgy gondoljuk, hogy az egyetlen megoldás a diplomáciai megoldás. Ez tűzszünetet és béketárgyalásokat jelent. Ebben az összefüggésben arra kérnek bennünket, hogy négy év alatt 50 milliárd euro-t adjunk Ukrajnának. Mivel számunkra nem tetszik a háború eszkalálódása, és nem gondoljuk, hogy a megoldás a csatatéren születik, nem tetszik nekünk ez a javaslat. Jogunk van nem egyetérteni, mert van egy költségvetésünk az Európai Unióban, ami három évvel ezelőtt lett elfogadva a többi országgal együtt, beleértve Magyarországot. Ez az európai költségvetés olyan alap, amelyet mások most meg akarnak változtatni. Úgy gondolom, hogy az Európai Unió minden tagjának joga van megvédeni a költségvetés azon változatát, ahogyan azt létrehozták. Ez egy nagyon is európai álláspont, mivel ezt az európai költségvetést 27 tagállam fogadta el. Az alapvető kérdés ebben az esetben a szuverenitás kérdése. Magyarország, mint szuverén állam ellenzi a költségvetésnek ezt a módosítását. Sajnos egy független országnak ezt a jogát a 26-ok nem fogadják el. Ezért próbálnak minket meggyőzni, majd ezután nyomást gyakorolni, majd zsarolni, hogy rákényszerítsenek, hogy csatlakozzunk hozzájuk. Nagyon nehéz egyedül maradni ebben a családban. Az Európai Unió vagy még inkább az európai egység támogatójaként osztom azt a nézetet, hogy az európai egység érték. Magyarország nem szívesen él a vétójogával, és szavaz mások ellen, mert megértjük, hogy az egység érték. Tehát ez a nagy kihívás, amivel mindannyian szembesülünk: hogyan kerüljünk ki ebből a helyzetből?
- Ön tett egy ajánlatot szombaton…
- Úgy döntöttünk, hogy egy kompromisszumos ajánlatot teszünk: rendben, nem értünk egyet a költségvetés módosításával. Nem értünk egyet azzal, hogy 50 milliárd euro-t kelljen adnunk, ami egy óriási összeg. Nem értünk egyet azzal, hogy ezt négy évre kellene biztosítanunk, és így tovább. De legyen, Magyarország kész részt venni a 27-ek megoldásában, ha garantálják, hogy minden évben döntünk arról, hogy továbbra is küldjük-e ezt a pénzt, vagy sem. És ennek az évenkénti döntésnek ugyanolyan jogalapja kell, hogy legyen, mint ma: egyhangúnak kell lennie. Sajnos ezt az álláspontot egyes országok úgy értik vagy értelmezik, mint egy eszközt arra, hogy minden évben megzsarolják őket.
- Önnek van egy bizonyos múltja ezen a téren…
- A mi álláspontunk az, hogy ez nem a vétóval való zsarolásáról szól, hanem az Európai Unió egységének helyreállításáról és fenntartásáról. Tehát ha valakit arra kényszerítünk, hogy részese legyen valaminek, amit nem szeret, és joga van ahhoz, hogy ne legyen részese, de rá nyomást gyakoroltak, őt kényszerítették bármilyen módon, hogy részese legyen, akkor tisztességes és észszerű, hogy minden évben lehetőséget adjunk neki arra, hogy részt vegyen a döntésben, hogy ez folytatódjon-e, vagy sem. Ez lenne a kompromisszum. Ez a mi álláspontunk.
- És hogyan fogadják jelenleg a javaslatát? Scholz kancellár például?
- Ha jól értem, a fogadtatás a Financial Times-ban jelent meg… Szóval nem éppen pozitív a visszhangja.
- A Financial Times hétfőn valóban közölt egy cikket, amelyben azt állították, hogy az unió vétó esetén úgy büntethetné a magyar gazdaságot, hogy megtagadná Magyarországtól az európai kifizetéseket, ami hatással lenne az Önök országába irányuló befektetésekre és a valutára. Hallott már ilyen tervről?
- Ez egyfajta zsarolási útmutató. Röviden összefoglalva: azt mondják, hogyha szuverén országként viselkedünk, akkor Magyarországot azonnal hatalmas pénzügyi blokád alá veszik, és összekötik az ukrán kérdést a jogállamisággal. A kettőnek semmi köze egymáshoz! Hogy akkor Magyarországon armageddon lenne. Ez áll a Financial Times által közzétett dokumentumban. A dokumentum hitelességében nem kételkedem. Brüsszelt ismerve képesek rá.
- Az Európai Tanács egyik magas rangú tisztviselője a közzététel után egyfajta cáfolatot adott ki, mondván, hogy ez egy Magyarország gazdasági helyzetéről szóló feljegyzés volt, amelyet a tanács főtitkárságának felelőssége mellett készítettek. Nem tudjuk pontosan, hogy miről van szó, de a tanács egyfajta korrekciót tesz közzé…
- Mindannyiunknak van némi tapasztalatunk a nemzetközi politikában. Nem az óvodából jöttünk ki. Ha a Financial Times közöl egy dokumentumot, amiben részletesen leírják a Magyarország elleni pénzügyi blokád és a velünk szembeni zsarolás forgatókönyvét, akkor biztosak lehetünk abban, hogy létezik ilyen. Megértem, hogy ezt a többieknek milyen nehéz elfogadni, hiszen az Európai Unió az elmúlt években egyre inkább imperialista irányba mozdult el, különösen az Egyesült Királyság kilépése után. Egyre kevésbé szuverén államok közösségéről van szó. Egyre többször, függetlenül attól, hogy milyen jogaid vannak a Szerződések alapján, milyen észszerű érvet hozol fel nekik, olyasmire próbálnak rákényszeríteni, amit nem akarsz. Még konkrétabban: Brüsszel az elmúlt években ideológiai háborút vív Magyarország ellen, és folyamatosan zsarolni próbál bennünket. Még a bizottság elnöke is nyilvánosan kijelentette a legutóbbi parlamenti ülésen, hogy Magyarország addig nem kapja meg a neki járó uniós forrásokat, amíg nem hajlandó változtatni a migrációval és a genderrel kapcsolatos álláspontján. Szóval mi ez, ha nem zsarolás? Mi, magyarok hosszú évek óta ilyen körülmények között élünk.
- A másik 26 tagállam azt állítja, hogy egy évente jóváhagyott éves terv nem teszi lehetővé Ukrajnának, hogy négy évre tervezze kiadásait. Ez elfogadható érv az Ön szemében?
- Ez egy olyan érv, amelyet komolyan kell venni, de nem fogadom el. Először is nem tudjuk, mi lesz a következő három-négy hónapban Ukrajnában. Hát még négy év múlva… Másodszor, senki sem tudja, hogy az amerikaiak részt vesznek-e a játékban, akár most, akár a novemberi amerikai választások után. Harmadszor: ki végezte el az összeadást, ki számolt? Miért pont 50 milliárd euro? Nem tudjuk pontosan, hogy ez az összeg minek felel meg. És végül a fő érv, legalábbis egy demokrata számára, hogy öt hónap múlva választások lesznek Európában. Teljesen figyelmen kívül hagynánk az európaiak véleményét, ha ma olyan döntést hoznánk, amely négy évre lekötné Európát, és ez egy óriási összegre vonatkozik. Mintha nem lenne jelentősége az emberek véleményének, bármi legyen is a júniusi európai parlamenti választás eredménye. Ha Európa jogállamiságon alapuló demokratikus közösségként kíván viselkedni, egyszerűen nem hozhatunk ilyen döntést. ***
- Azt tudja, hogy az ukránok számára sürgős…
- Megértem az ukránokat. Szeretnék egy hatalmas összeg garanciáját a lehető leghosszabb ideig. Értem, de ez nem európai érdek. Európában másként kell viselkednünk. Ennyi pénzre az európaiaknak is szükségük van. Európában egyre jobban szenvedünk a gazdaság gyenge teljesítményétől. Ez a pénz nagyon hasznos lenne az európai népeknek, a franciáknak, a németeknek, a magyaroknak, a lengyeleknek… Összességében úgy gondolom, hogy több érv van a mi megoldásunk mellett – évenkénti döntés, a fejlemények függvényében felülvizsgálva –, mint az ellen-oldalnak, akik 50 milliárd euro-t szeretnének egyszerre kiosztani Ukrajnának négy évre.
- Mit válaszol azoknak, akik azt gondolják, hogy legbelül Trump novemberi megválasztását várja, hogy az Ön nézőpontja győzedelmeskedjen? Nagy szövetséges lenne Ön számára…
- Térjünk vissza 2016-ba, az első kampányához, a választások előtt. Akkoriban mindenki azt mondta, hogy a választást Clinton nyeri, nem Trump. Akkoriban világosan megmondtam, hogy Trump-ra szükségünk van Európában. Mert amikor Trump azt mondja, hogy „Tegyük újra naggyá Amerikát” vagy „Amerika az első”, az legitimál minket abban, hogy „Tegyük újra naggyá Európát” és „Európa az első”. Tegyék Európát az első helyre, tegyék Franciaországot az első helyre, és tegyék Magyarországot az első helyre. Ez a normális hozzáállás a nemzetközi politikában, ha nemzeti érdeken alapuló megállapodásokat akarunk találni. Végül nem szabad elfelejtenünk, hogy Trump az Egyesült Államok egyik legsikeresebb külpolitikát folytató elnöke volt. Egyetlen háborút sem indított el. Az Ábrahám-megállapodások volt az egyetlen komoly esély arra, hogy békét, egyensúlyt és elfogadható életformát teremtsünk a nagyon nehéz közel-keleti régióban. Személyes meggyőződésem továbbra is az, hogyha 2022 februárjában Trumpn-ak hívják az amerikai elnököt, nem lett volna háború Európában. Ma nem látok rajta kívül senkit sem Európában, sem Amerikában, aki elég erős vezető lenne ahhoz, hogy megállítsa a háborút. A békének van neve: Trump.
- von der Leyen elnök az Európai Parlamentben egyértelművé tette, hogy mintegy 20 milliárd euro-t nem fizetnek ki Magyarországnak mindaddig, amíg bizonyos problémák fennállnak Magyarországon, mint például a gyermekvédelmi törvény az LMBTQ-személyekkel, a tudományos szabadságot ért csorbák, a csalás elleni küzdelem hiányosságai. Hogyan reagál erre az emlékeztetésre?
- Először is emlékeztetni kell arra, hogy a bizottság három hónappal ezelőtt egyértelműen kijelentette, hogy a magyar közbeszerzésekre vonatkozó szabályozással nincs semmilyen probléma. Ez egy jó szabályozás. Ebből a szempontból Magyarország az EU-tagállamok legjobb első harmadában található. A korrupció elleni küzdelem kudarca tehát már nem egy szilárd érv. Majd a bizottság kimondta, hogy a magyarországi igazságszolgáltatás rendben van. Ezért az Európai Unió legerősebben ellenőrzött és újraértékelt igazságszolgáltatási rendszerével rendelkezünk. Ennek a kifogásnak is vége. De mivel a bizottságot politikai szándék vezérli, mert ideológiai háborút folytat Magyarország ellen, von der Leyen elnöknek új sérelmeket kell kreálnia Magyarország megtámadására és zsarolására. Az új sérelem pedig a migrációra és a genderre vonatkozik. Ennek semmi köze a korrupcióhoz vagy az igazságszolgáltatás minőségéhez, Magyarország ebből a szempontból jól áll. Nyilvánvaló tehát, hogy nem a jogállamiság az igazi érv Magyarország ellen. Nem is beszélve a zsarolási kísérletről, amely azt mondja: ha Magyarország nem adja oda az 50 milliárd euro-t Ukrajnának, akkor megfosztjuk a tanácsi szavazati jogától. Ez egyértelműen tisztességtelen magatartás, mert egy ország jogának megvonásáról csak akkor lehet szavazni, ha probléma van a jogállamisággal. De Ukrajnának semmi köze a jogállamisághoz! Az európai intézmények nem veszik komolyan a jogállamiságot. Ez csak egy eszköz a szuverenitásukat megőrizni óhajtó és saját véleménnyel rendelkező országok zsarolására. Másrészt ez nem jó Magyarországnak, mert mint minden normális ember, mi is szeretjük, ha szeretnek minket. Szeretjük, ha emberként és országként tisztelnek bennünket, amit méltánytalanul megtagadnak Magyarországtól. Ennek ellenére továbbra is úgy gondolom, hogy az európai egység fontos.
- Beszélt Meloni asszonnyal erről a helyzetről?
- Folyamatosan beszélek mindenkivel.
- Támogatja ő Önt?
- Nem, egyedül vagyunk. Számunkra ez elvi kérdés, de a többi 26 ország hatalmi kérdést csinál belőle. Sajnos ez egy nehéz helyzet. Mint tudják, sok-sok éve vagyok az Európai Tanács tagja. Ezekben a bonyolult helyzetekben az a fontos, amit stratégiai nyugalomnak nevezünk: ne ugorj rá mindenre, ami mozog, ne reagálj azonnal, maradj nyugodt. Fontos, hogy az európaiak megértsék, hogy a tagállamok, ha nem értenek egyet olyan kérdésekben, mint a háború, a migráció, a gender, azonnal imperialista reakciót tapasztalnak Brüsszelből, és a zsarolás egy formájának vetik őket alá.
- Európa súlyos mezőgazdasági válságon megy keresztül. Magyarországot érintette az európai piac megnyitása az ukrán termékek előtt. Mit vár a bizottságtól, amelynek júniusig megoldást kell javasolnia?
- Ez a történet megmutatja, hogy a háborútól függetlenül milyen komoly probléma Ukrajna Európa számára. A háború csak rávilágít Ukrajna fontosságára, de a háború nélkül is jelentős kihívást jelent Európa számára Ukrajna, és meg kell értenie, hogy miként közeledjen az Európai Unióhoz. Nagyon óvatosnak kell lennünk, mert Ukrajna hatalmas ország. És Ukrajna közeledése az Európai Unióhoz vagy akár az Európai Unióhoz való csatlakozása katasztrofális hatással lesz, vagy katasztrofális hatással lehetne az európai gazdaságokra, különösen a mezőgazdasági szektorban. Tehát mi történik? Sokat szenvedünk itt Magyarországon, mert szomszéd ország vagyunk, ahogy Lengyelország is. Önök, Franciaországban, messze vannak. Önöket mi védjük, ha szabad így mondanom. A kontinens távol tartja Ukrajnát Önöktől, de előbb-utóbb Franciaországot is eléri az ukrán gazdaság Európai Unióra gyakorolt hatása. És Önök pontosan ugyanúgy szenvedni fognak, mint mi. Nagyon egységesnek kell lennünk, és világosan el kell magyaráznunk az ukránoknak, milyen lépéseket kell tenni annak érdekében, hogy közelítsük feléjük az Európai Uniót és a piacainkat. Az ukrán mezőgazdasági termelés jóval olcsóbb, mint a francia és a magyar gazdáké, és ez nem fenntartható. Nem tudunk versenyezni velük, és tönkretesszük mezőgazdasági közösségeinket. Ezt nem tehetjük meg; az ukránoknak ezt meg kell érteniük. A bizottságnak az európai érdekeket kell megvédenie az ukránokkal szemben, nem pedig az ukrán érdekeket az európai gazdákkal szemben.
(Forrás: miniszterelnok *)
* Miniszterelnöki Kabinetiroda

*** Kiemelés tőlem - J.

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European Parliament
Jan 25, 24  A forecast.     The 2024 European Parliament elections will see a major shift to the right in many countries, with populist radical right parties gaining votes and seats across the EU, and centre-left and green parties losing votes and seats.     We collected the most recent opinion polls in every EU member state and applied a statistical model of the performance of national parties in previous European Parliament elections, building on a model we developed and used for the 2009, 2014, and 2019 elections.        The results show that the two main political groups in the parliament – the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) – will likely continue to lose seats which is resulting in an increasing fragmentation of European party systems, at both the national and European levels.     We expect the EPP to remain the largest group in the parliament, and therefore maintain most agenda-setting power, including over the choice of the next commission president. Our model predicts significant seat losses for the EPP in Germany, Italy, Romania, and Ireland, but significant gains in Spain.     We forecast that the S&D will lose a lot of seats in Germany, and the Netherlands, and will gain most seats in Poland.     The “grand coalition” of the EPP and the S&D is set to lose seats, holding 42 per cent of the total, compared to its current 45 per cent.     We predict that the centrist Renew Europe (RE) group and the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) will also lose seats, falling from 101 to 86 and 71 to 61 respectively. We expect RE to lose most seats in France and Spain, and to make most gains in the Czech Republic and Italy and the G/EFA to lose most seats in Germany, France, and Italy.     Even with the RE group, the “super grand coalition” of the three centrist groups will only hold 54 per cent of the seats, compared to its current 60 per cent - not enough for these three groups to guarantee a winning majority when they vote together.     Almost half the seats will be held by MEPs outside the “super grand coalition” of the three centrist groups.     The Left group should increase their representation from 38 to 44 seats - it will make most gains in Germany, France, and Ireland. In addition, if the Five Star Movement in Italy, which we predict will win 13 seats, decided not to sit with the non-attached (NI) MEPs, it may choose to join either the G/EFA or the Left, which would bolster the number of MEPs sitting to the left of the S&D.     The left coalition – of the S&D, the G/EFA, and the Left – will lose seats, with 33 per cent of the total, compared to the current 35 per cent. And, even if the left coalition can secure the support of RE – which they have done on environmental and social rights issues during the current term – it would hold only 45 per cent of the seats, compared to 50 per cent in the current parliament.     The main winners in the elections will be the populist right. The major winner will be the radical right Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which we expect to gain 40 seats and, with almost 100 MEPs, to emerge as the third largest group in the new parliament.     A centre-right coalition – of the EPP, RE, and the ECR – will likely lose some seats, holding 48 per cent instead of the current 49 per cent. A “populist right coalition” – made up of the EPP, the ECR, and ID – will increase their share of the seats from 43 per cent to 49 per cent.     The majority of the non-attached MEPs are from extreme right parties, meaning that with their support, majority coalitions could form to the right of RE for the first time in the history of the European Parliament. The “pivotal MEP” in the next parliament is likely to be in the EPP group, rather than in the centrist RE (or previously Liberal) group for the first time.     Anti-European populists are likely to top the polls in nine member states (Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia) and come second or third in a further nine countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden). These results will be particularly significant in several member states which will hold national parliament elections soon after the European Parliament election.     We also predict that the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group will gain 18 seats. Our model predicts that the ECR will lose seats in Poland, and gain most seats in Romania and Spain, in addition to Italy. We expect the ECR to pick up a lot of seats in Italy, as a result of Brothers of Italy (FdI) emerging as one of the largest delegations in the European Parliament (with 27 seats). With the expected fall of Forza Italia to only 7 seats, though, the EPP may approach Brothers of Italy to join their group. And, if Fidesz in Hungary (which we expect to win 14 seats) decides to join the ECR rather than to sit with the non-attached MEPs, the ECR could overtake RE and ID and become the third largest group.     It predicts that ID will lose many seats in Italy, with the decline of Lega, but these losses will be offset by significant gains in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Bulgaria, and Austria.     We expect the ECR and ID groups together to account for 25 per cent of MEPs, and have more seats combined than the EPP or the S&D for the first time.     The “EU-critics” on the radical right and radical left will increase dramatically to hold 37 per cent of the seats, compared to 30 per cent in the current parliament. Populist voices, particularly on the radical right, are likely to be louder after the 2024 elections than at any point since the European Parliament was first directly elected in 1979.     A populist right coalition of Christian democrats, conservatives, and radical right MEPs could emerge with a majority for the first time. This ‘sharp right turn’ will affect the foreign policy choices that the EU can make, particularly on environmental issues, where the new majority is likely to oppose ambitious EU action to tackle climate change.         There is uncertainty regarding which political groups some parties will eventually join. There are two types of uncertain parties: (1) those that are not currently represented in the parliament and are not currently members of a European political party (which would automatically determine their group membership); and (2) those that currently have MEPs but might join a different political group in the next parliament. We have already mentioned the three largest parties in this list: Fidesz from Hungary, Brothers of Italy and the Five Star Movement from Italy. Beyond these, there are 25 other parties whose group membership remains uncertain. Together, we predict that these 28 parties will win 122 seats in June 2024, meaning that the eventual sizes of the groups might be somewhat different from those in our forecast. Most of the uncertain parties are those that will sit to the right of the EPP, in either the ECR, ID, or as non-attached MEPs. The likely “sharp right turn” is unlikely to change as a result of changes to these parties’ current or expected group membership. The sizes of the potential coalitions between the political groups in the chamber will benefit the right.         Different coalitions have tended to dominate in different policy areas in 2019-2024:   A centrist grand coalition (EPP + S&D, usually also with RE) typically won on budgets, budgetary control, culture and education, economic and monetary affairs, foreign affairs, internal market and consumer protection, legal affairs, and transport and tourism;   A centre + left coalition (S&D + RE+ G/EFA + the Left) usually won on civil liberties and justice and home affairs, development, employment and social affairs, environment, and women’s rights and gender equality;   A centre + right coalition (EPP + RE + ECR, and sometimes ID) usually won on agriculture and rural development, fisheries, industry and research, and international trade.   These coalitions and winning patterns are likely to continue, at least at the start of the next parliamentary term.          EU support for Ukraine - the majority in the next European Parliament is likely to back a continuation of the type of financial, logistical, and military aid that Western states have been approving for Kyiv since February 2022. However, there will be a larger number of MEPs (particularly in ID and among the non-attached MEPs) who are more sympathetic towards Russia. Support for Ukraine in the rest of the parliament might also soften as national parties start to respond to the changing opinions of their voters, expressed by their votes in the European Parliament elections.         Our analysis suggests two significant shifts in coalition patterns.     Firstly, the smaller size of the centrist grand coalition, even with RE support, is likely to mean that it will no longer be as dominant on some policy issues. In particular on economic and monetary affairs and internal market and consumer protection – where the grand coalition has won votes in the current parliament by smaller margins – we could see a significant shift to the right, as the EPP looks to partners to its right rather than to the S&D. Given the Euroscepticism of the ECR and ID, and some national parties in the EPP, we could therefore see majorities in the next parliament in support of more economic, fiscal, and regulatory freedom for member states. This bloc would be likely to vote against proposals from the commission to enforce common rules and instead side with the growing group of national governments – such as those in Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden – which are pushing for less interference from Brussels in national economic, fiscal, and regulatory policies.     Secondly, the smaller number of MEPs on the left relative to the right means that in several policy areas in which the left has tended to win by small margins, a right-wing majority will now be more likely to win than a left-wing majority. This is likely to be particularly true in two areas – civil liberties and justice and home affairs, and environment – where narrow centre-left majorities may be replaced by a new populist right winning coalition (of EPP + ECR + ID + most non-attached MEPs). On civil liberties and justice and home affairs, this could have major implications for EU migration and asylum policies, where there is likely to be a majority in the European Parliament that supports very restrictive immigration policies and will seek to push the commission to reform the EU’s asylum policy framework to allow more discretion for member states and to limit any sharing of refugee allocations.     This new winning majority on civil liberties and justice and home affairs could also have implications for the EU’s efforts to enforce the rule of law. In the current parliament there has been a narrow majority in favour of the EU imposing sanctions (such as withholding budget payments) on member states in which the rule of law is backsliding – in particular in Hungary and Poland. But after June 2024 it is likely to be harder for the centrist and centre-left MEPs (in RE, S&D, G/EFA, the Left, and parts of EPP) to hold the line against the 'continued erosion of democracy, rule of law, and civil liberties' in Hungary and any other member state that might head in that direction.     The biggest policy implications of the 2024 European Parliament elections are likely to concern environmental policy. In the current parliament, a centre-left coalition (of S&D, RE, G/EFA, and the Left) has tended to win on environmental policy issues, but many of these votes have been won by very small margins. The significant shift to the right in the new parliament will mean that an ‘anti-climate policy action’ coalition is likely to dominate. This would significantly undermine the EU’s Green Deal framework and the adoption and enforcement of common policies to meet the EU’s net zero targets. Perhaps the best illustration of this is what would have happened if the key vote on the EU’s nature restoration law was held after the 2024 elections. The law forces member states to restore at least 20 per cent of the EU’s land and seas by 2030, with binding targets to restore at least 30 per cent of degraded habitats by 2030, rising to 60 per cent by 2040 and 90 per cent by 2050. The key vote was on 12 July 2023, on a motion by the EPP to reject the commission’s proposal outright. The proposal to reject failed by only 12 votes (312 in favour, 324 against), and the parliament then went on to accept the commission’s proposal, with a series of votes against amendments from the groups on the right to water down the proposed actions. The dramatic increase in the number of MEPs to the right of the EPP is likely to seriously limit the EU’s actions to tackle the climate crisis.         The European Parliament elections will not only have implications for politics and policy at the EU level, they will also have an impact on domestic politics in many countries. The European Parliament elections are essentially 27 national elections, and the national debates that take place in the run-up to the June 2024 elections will affect the positions that the heads of state or government feel able to take in the months and years that follow the elections. If political parties campaign on a platform to block certain EU decisions, or the way the citizens in a country have voted in the European Parliament elections is perceived to demand a tougher mandate on immigration, a “no” to further EU enlargement, or a vote against the EU’s Green Deal agenda, this will influence the national governments’ approaches to EU policymaking after the 2024 elections.     The 2024 European Parliament election in Austria will come just a few months before the next national election, which is set for autumn 2024. If the two mainstream parties – the centre-right People’s Party of Austria (ÖVP) and the centre-left Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) – continue to haemorrhage support, the radical right Freedom Party (FPÖ) could convert the success of the anti-system change vote into a national electoral victory.     Bulgaria has experienced five parliamentary elections since the beginning of 2021. This level of instability has contributed to the rapid acceleration of the anti-system vote, which the far-right and pro-Russia party, Revival, has greatly benefitted from: it won 14 per cent in the last election in 2023, making it the third largest party. If Revival wins three seats in the European Parliament election, as we predict, it will enter the European Parliament for the first time, gaining institutional legitimacy as Bulgaria’s mainstream parties continue to lose their own legitimacy - after holding its fifth national election in two years, Bulgaria is still nowhere near forming a stable government.     In France, the latest government led by President Macron is currently hovering at a 30 per cent approval rating. It will be French voters’ first opportunity to express this disapproval electorally and the first test for the French left after the break-up of the New Ecological and Social People’s Union (NUPES). There is every chance that Le Pen’s radical right National Rally (RN) will win the election. This would set the tone for the 2027 presidential election and could establish Le Pen as the potential next French president.     In Germany, the European Parliament election is likely to see the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) become the second largest German party in the European Parliament, behind a re-emergent Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU). The election will also be the first test for the new anti-immigrant radical left Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). The next German parliamentary elections will be held in autumn 2025. The continued polarisation of German politics will therefore be a major concern for the centrist parties, and the CDU/CSU will be under pressure to say whether they would be willing to enter a coalition with the AfD.     In Italy, the European Parliament election will be the first electoral test for the new government led by prime minister Giorgia Meloni, as well as the new leaders of Forza Italia (led by deputy prime minister Tajani) and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) led by Schlein. A decisive victory for Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, at the expense of its two coalition partners (Forza Italia and the League), would establish Brothers of Italy as the dominant party on the right in Italy. With voters on the left split between PD, the Five Star Movement, and the centrist parties, it remains to be seen whether these elections can establish a path forward for the left in Italy.     In the Netherlands, it is far from certain whether a government will be in place by the time of the European Parliament election or whether the country will be heading towards another national election. Wilders’s (PVV) is set to emerge as the largest Dutch party in the European Parliament, while Omzigt’s New Social Contract (NSC) will win MEPs for the first time. A decisive victory for these two parties could encourage them to form a coalition together. The combined Green-Left (PvdA-Groen Links) list may raise questions about the viability of this alliance going forward.     In Poland, the European Parliament election will be an opportunity to see whether Polish voters have sustainably turned away from the populist right Law and Justice party (PiS). We expect PiS to top the poll in Poland in June 2024 with 31 per cent of the votes and the centrist European Coalition (KE) alliance to come second with 24 per cent of the votes, closing the gap between it and PiS even further. The new centrist Third Way (TD) should win MEPs for the first time, further consolidating its position as a key ally of KE in a post-PiS Poland. The radical right is expected taking votes from PiS.     In Spain, the European Parliament election will be a referendum on prime minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Party (PSOE) government and the deal Sánchez made with the Catalan nationalists to win the premiership after the July 2023 national election. We expect a significant backlash against Sánchez and his deal, with the centre-right People’s Party (PP) emerging as the clear winner and with the radical right Vox winning 10 per cent of the votes. The new Sumar alliance of the radical left and the greens is set to lose votes.     Sweden is likely seeing a further consolidation of support for Andersson’s centre-left Swedish Social Democratic Party (SAP), following its re-emergence as the largest party after the September 2022 national election. The radical right Sweden Democrats (SD) look set to come second in the poll, mainly at the expense of the centre-right Moderata, which is likely to be punished for tacitly supporting Andersson’s minority government.         While the parliament is not the most significant EU institution when it comes to foreign policy, the way in which the political groups align after the elections, and the impact that these elections have on national debates in member states, will have significant implications for the European Commission’s and Council’s ability to make foreign policy choices, most notably in implementing the next phase of the European Green Deal. The implications of this vote are far reaching for the geopolitical direction of the European Council and European Commission from 2024 onwards. The next European Parliament can be expected to block legislation necessary to implement the politically difficult next phase of the Green Deal – impacting the EU’s climate sovereignty – and push for a harder line on key issues for other areas of EU sovereignty including migration, enlargement, and support for Ukraine.          National governments will feel constrained by the way these elections shape domestic debates, affecting the positions they can take in the European Council. This is likely to bolster the growing axis of governments around the European Council table that are attempting to limit the EU’s influence from within – those of Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, Sweden, and likely a PVV-led government in the Netherlands.         These findings should also be set against the expectation that whether or not Trump wins the US presidential election in autumn 2024 – and the polls currently suggest there is a real possibility he will. Europe will have a less globally engaged United States to rely on. This may increase the inclination of anti-establishment and Eurosceptic parties to reject strategic interdependence and a broad range of international partnerships in defence of European interests and values, instead seeking to pursue a more cautious approach to foreign policy decisions.

Note:
Forecast by political group and member state:

Hungary:

Total: 21 (MPPs):    EPP: 0;    S&D: 4;    ID: 0;    RE: 1;    ECR: 0;    G/EFA: 0;    Left: 0;    NI: 16".

Forecast vote share by member state, 2024:

Party     Forecast vote share;     Forecast MEPs;     Difference Expected;     EP group
Fidesz       43.9%                                   14                                    1                     NI
DK            13.1%                                     4                                    0                  S&D
MHM           6.2%                                     2                                    2                     NI
MM             5.8%                                     1                                  −1                     RE
MKKP          5.0%                                     0                                    0                     0
MSZP          4.6%                                     0                                  −1                     0
LMP            3.8%                                     0                                    0                      0
Jobbik         3.5%                                     0                                  −1                     0
PM              2.3%                                     0                                    0                     0

(Parties:    Fidesz-Magyar Polgári Szövetség;    Demokratikus Koalició;    Mi Hazánk Mozgalom;    Momentum Mozgalom;    Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt;    Magyar Szocialista Párt;    Lehet Más a Politika;    Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom;    Párbeszéd - A Zöldek Pártja).

(Source: ecfr *)
* European Council on Foreign Relations (Berlin, Germany)

..

.

Europe

Germany
12/31/2023  Krisenmodus, the state of German foreign policy. "In 2024, Germany's foreign policy will work in crisis mode'. 'Berlin must find ways to deal with two wars, an increasingly aggressive China, and a world order in transition'. The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas - which is classified as a terrorist organization by Germany, the European Union, the US and other governments - is only the latest major crisis, albeit currently the most dramatic. The conflict could spread, with potentially devastating consequences. Germany is involved in discussions about how the Middle East should look after the end of the war. Like the EU and the US government, Germany remains committed to the idea of a two-state solution - a Palestinian state alongside the Israeli state. In an exclusive interview with DW in November, Foreign Minister Baerbock lamented the violence carried out by Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank against Palestinians. "The Israeli prime minister must condemn this settler violence, it must be prosecuted, and this is also in the interests of Israel's security,' she said. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has challenged German and European diplomats. Germany, along with other Western countries, has provided extensive military assistance, but still, almost two years later, Ukraine has made little progress in recapturing Russian-occupied territories. The willingness to provide military assistance to Ukraine is now eroding even in the United States, by far its most important ally. Kiesewetter, a Bundestag member with the center-right opposition Christian Democrats (CDU), believes that all talk of negotiating a solution is dangerous and that a military victory in Ukraine is possible. 'It is the West that has hampered the liberation campaign because too little has been supplied too late," he recently wrote. The strategy, he said, must be: 'Supply everything [in arms] as quickly as possible.' As the West grows weary of war, politicians are now under pressure to think about ending the war at the negotiating table. Political scientist Varwick from the University of Halle believes this is inevitable anyway. "After a cease-fire, I think come difficult diplomatic negotiations over territorial changes in Ukraine, and over Ukraine's neutrality - all of which should be on the table," Varwick told. Much has changed in relations between China and Germany since Angela Merkel was chancellor from 2005 to 2021. In contrast to Merkel's 'delicate handling of the Chinese government' in the interest of trade policy, the strategy paper issued this summer by the current governing center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) called China a "partner, competitor and systemic rival" for Germany and the EU. But recently, Berlin has increasingly emphasized the rivalry. The German government is concerned about China's saber-rattling toward Taiwan, which China regards as a secessionist province, and about China's close relationship with Russia despite its war on Ukraine. Yet China has been Germany's most important trading partner since 2016. This is why the German government's China strategy does not focus on disentangling the two economies, as this would cause too much damage in Germany, but rather on efforts to reduce its one-sided economic dependencies on China. The limits of a foreign policy based on values, as advocated by Baerbock, are particularly evident in the case of China. In April, the then-Chinese Foreign Minister Qin responded to Baerbock's plea for greater respect of human rights: 'What China needs least of all is a schoolmaster from the West." 'In a world in which the liberal West is coming under pressure, enemies are easy to make if you constantly insist on values,' wrote journalist Freidel on November 30. "That doesn't mean that values are dispensable. It just means that they shouldn't be constantly bandied about." Freidel said Germany should 'rather formulate interests." Hoff of the German Council on Foreign Relations, takes a more positive view of the German government's foreign policy. "If we completely ignore values, as we did with Russia, then this will have catastrophic consequences, and we are seeing this in Ukraine,' he told. The war in Ukraine has taught the German government a lesson: In the global search for allies willing to support sanctions against Russia, numerous developing and emerging countries have turned their backs - intent on continuing trade with Moscow. Countries that are normally aligned with the West, such as India and Brazil, "are finding new leeway in this changing world order by exercising their freedom not to take sides," said Hoff. Germany, Europe's strongest and the world's fourth-largest economy, is expected to play a more active role on the global stage, not least by the US and the EU. This does not seem to be very popular with most Germans, according to a survey conducted by the nonprofit Körber Foundation in September. Germany should be more restrained when it comes to international crises, 54% of respondents said. Only 38% wanted to see greater involvement - the lowest figure since the surveys began in 2017, when it stood at 52%. A whopping 71% of respondents were against Germany taking a leading military role in Europe. Germans want one thing above all else: Respite from the turbulence of world politics. (dw)

European Council
December 31, 2023  Bulgaria, Romania, both EU members since 2007, get official green light for partial entry into Schengen area, which comprises 27 countries and grants free movement to more than 400 million EU citizens. EU member countries reached agreement yesterday on removing air and maritime internal border controls with Bulgaria and Romania as of March 31. “A further decision should be taken by the Council to establish a date for the lifting of checks at internal land borders,” the Council of the EU said. Austria had opposed the inclusion of Romania and Bulgaria in the Schengen zone due to concerns over illegal immigration. But in mid-December, Austrian Interior Minister Karner announced a softening of Vienna’s stance, offering passport-free travel by plane from those countries in exchange for tighter border security measures. The Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU hammered out the final agreement late yesterday, just before the government in Madrid passes the baton to Belgium. “A decision by the Council on this matter is expected to be taken within a reasonable time frame,” the European Commission said in a statement. (Source: politico)

Russia
31-Dec-2023  What will happen in Ukraine in 2024? Israel's war with Hamas has captured the attention of the world's media over the past two months, but in Ukraine a near two-year long conflict is continuing with no end in sight. Russia labeled it a special operation aimed at ridding Nazism from Ukraine and reclaiming land it lost following the disbandment of the Soviet Union. It was expected that Ukraine would be quickly overwhelmed by the firepower of Russia's military, but with help from Western countries, Ukraine has showed resolve. Ukraine has received huge financial backing from the West, particularly from the United States. After weathering Russia's early attack, support from Western allies in the form of military and financial aid saw Ukraine fight back. The U.S. has pledged €43.9 billion ($55.9 billion) to Ukraine between February 2022 and October 2023. Ukraine had also received €5.6 billion ($7.1 billion) from the EU over the same time period. But that level of support is putting pressure on the purse strings of Western countries. There are fears if aid dries up, Ukraine will fold to the military might of Russia. Now, with a third year of fighting fast approaching, Russia and Ukraine's conflict has ground to a standstill, but looks set to continue well into 2024 and beyond. As it stands, Russia currently occupies roughly 15 percent of Ukraine's territory, having formally annexed four regions: Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk in September 2022. Ukraine's counter-offensive has stalled and Russia has struggled to make any further advancements. For Ukraine's soldiers on the frontline, there is little sign of an end to the fighting, with the conflict set to continue for many months and even years to come. "Russia wins by not losing," Shea, a former NATO official and now professor of strategy and security at the University of Exeter, said. He believes Russia is committed to a lengthy battle that could go on for years. "Putin is clearly in for the long haul. He made that clear during his press conference. He said that the initial Russian war aims, which is to demilitarize the Nazi for Ukraine have not changed. So that suggests that Putin is not prepared at this stage, at least, to go for a more limited victory in terms of simply hanging onto the 17 percent of Ukraine that Russia has occupied and annexed. He wants the whole lot, including the downfall of the Zelenskyy regime." "The problem, of course, is that we now have this potential Ukraine fatigue from both America and the EU simultaneously," says Shea. "Hungary has blocked €50bn ($55bn; £43bn) in EU aid for Ukraine. America could say, 'look the EU is doing less' and (if they reduce aid), the EU could say 'America isn't in the fight anymore, why should we care about this more than them?'" Earlier this week, the White House approved another tranche of US military aid to Ukraine worth some $250m. Zelenskyy has ruled out talks with Moscow until it withdraws from territories it has occupied since February 2022. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov restated Russia's complaint that Ukraine was unwilling to hold peace talks to end the 22-month-old conflict in Ukraine, which Moscow calls a 'special military operation'. "His representatives think only in categories of war and resort to totally aggressive rhetoric. There is no consideration of holding peace talks... Draw your own conclusions," Lavrov told Tass. Finances could play a key role in Russia's military ambitions in Ukraine in 2024, too, Shea explained. "Russia, believe it or not, is now spending as a proportion of its GDP more on defense than the Soviet Union did. Soviet Union 14 percent, Russia now 20 percent." All of this defense spending over the long run is going to cause a lot of inflation, reduce Russian living standards, he added. (Source: cgtn *)
* China Global Television Network

Sunday, 31 Dec 2023  Fighting between Russia and Ukraine has intensified over the past week amid speculations that the war has reached a stalemate. Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out a “terrorist attack” yesterday on civilians in the city of Belgorod, including using controversial cluster munitions in strikes that killed at least 22 people and wounded dozens more. In an emergency meeting at the UN Security Council, demanded by Russia, envoy Nebenzya claimed Kyiv targeted a sports centre, an ice rink and a university. “[It was a] deliberate, indiscriminate attack against a civilian target,” Nebenzya said yesterday. Moscow said the attack would “not go unpunished”. At least 40 people were killed on Friday in one of Russia’s biggest attacks on Ukraine since its invasion nearly two years ago. Nebenzya defended the attacks saying Moscow had targeted only military infrastructure and that Ukraine’s air defence systems were responsible for civilian casualties. While support for Ukraine remains robust among Western countries, further military assistance has met growing pushback by conservative political forces in the US and Europe. The United States, Ukraine’s biggest single-country donor, has sent more than $40bn in aid since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. But right-wing congressional Republicans have expressed increasing scepticism towards approving more funds for Ukraine. Congress could continue to hold up the money. The impasse over US aid to Kyiv is mirrored in the European Union, where Hungary is blocking a 50 billion euro ($55bn) aid package. The bloc is due to revisit the issue in January. Difficulties in securing the funds in Washington and Brussels have raised concerns in Kyiv that Western backers are experiencing “fatigue” with the drawn-out battle, as fighting on the front line becomes bogged down. Zelenskyy has noted that Kyiv’s “foreign policy will be active' with many international activities in January. In a new wave of drone and missile attacks in days, Russia says it has targeted Ukrainian military sites in the capital Kyiv and Kharkiv, in retaliation for a deadly attack a day earlier on the city of Belgorod. Today the Russian defence ministry said it had struck “decision-making centres and military installations” in the northeastern city of Kharkhiv, after Kyiv said that residential buildings, a hotel and cafes had been hit. Russia launched ‘most massive attack’ since start of Ukraine war. In the first wave of overnight attacks, at least six missiles hit Kharkiv, Ukraine’s National Police said today. Most drones were aimed at Ukraine’s first line of defence as well as at civilian, military and infrastructure in the Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia regions, the Ukrainian Air Force said, adding that it destroyed 21 out of 49 attack drones. Closer to midnight, as part of a wider bombardment of Ukraine that also targeted Kyiv, several waves of Russian drones hit residential buildings in Kharkiv’s centre, spouting fires, Terekhov, Mayor of Kharkiv said. In his New Year’s Eve address today, President Putin said Russia would “never back down' praising his country’s military personnel. “We have repeatedly proved that we are able to solve the most difficult tasks and will never retreat, because there is no force that can separate us,” Putin said. “To all those who are on duty, on the front line of the fight for truth and justice," Putin said, “you are our heroes. Our hearts are with you. We are proud of you, we admire your courage.” (Source: aljazeera)
Photo: A view shows the Kharkiv Palace Hotel heavily damaged by a Russian missile strike.

2023. dec. 31.  Russia pounded Kharkiv in the hours leading into New Year's Eve, hitting residential buildings, hotels and medical facilities, Ukrainian officials said. Russia said the attacks were retaliation for Ukraine’s 'indiscriminate" attack on Belgorod. Video. (Source: reuters): http://tinyurl.com/5btckbtk
Note: 323 733 views between 31 December 2023 - 7 January 2024

Ukraine
Sunday, December 31, 2023  On Friday, Russia launched its biggest air assault since February 2022. Ukrainian officials said Russia killed at least 41 civilians, wounded at least 160, and left an unknown number buried in the rubble across Ukraine in a barrage that included 158 missile and drone attacks. The United Nations Security Council met Friday at the request of Ukraine and three dozen other U.N. member states. Security Council members condemned Russia's barrage. The Ukrainian news outlet RBC-Ukraine quoted unnamed sources as saying Ukrainian forces hit military targets in Belgorod in retaliation to the Friday's massive Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities. Russia's Defense Ministry said at least 21 people, including three children, were killed and at least 110 injured in yesterday's Ukrainian strikes on Belgorod. Russia requested a meeting yesterday of the U.N. Security Council on what it called Ukraine's indiscriminate attacks on Belgorod and alleged Ukraine had used cluster bombs. Yesterday, Russia said it downed 32 Ukrainian drones. In Moscow, officials said air defenses shot down drones over Moscow, Bryansk, Oryol and Kursk regions. The Defense Ministry reported a number of casualties, including a child. Russian missile and drone strikes continued yesterday. Ukraine reported shooting down Iranian-made Shahed drones in the Kherson, Khmelnytskyi and Mykolaiv regions. Ukraine was also fighting back a Russian drone attack yesterday in Kyiv. Missiles hit in Kharkiv and in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Chernihiv regions, killing three people. Two Russian missiles hit central Kharkiv yesterday, injuring at least 21 people, Ukrainian officials said, in the latest in a recent series of back-and-forth air assaults. Russia's attacks on Kharkiv came after Ukrainian airstrikes earlier yesterday hit the Russian city of Belgorod, which sits just over the border with Ukraine. The Kharkiv Palace hotel was damaged by a Russian missile attack in Kharkiv. Looking ahead to 2024, President Zelenskyy said in his daily address yesterday that Ukraine is "preparing to produce more weapons next year.' The British Defense Ministry said yesterday in its daily intelligence update on Ukraine that the daily number of Russian casualties in Ukraine, dead and wounded, has risen by almost 300% per day, compared with last year. The increase in the number of casualties was reported to the British ministry by Ukraine. On the last day of the year, Ukraine’s air force said it shot down 21 of 49 Russian drones. (Source: voanews *)
* Voice of America

Asia

China
31/12/2023  China’s 'reunification' with Taiwan is inevitable, President Xi said in his New Year’s address today, striking a stronger tone than he did last year with less than two weeks to go before the Chinese-claimed island elects a new leader. “The reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability,' Xi said, though the official English translation of his remarks published by the Xinhua news agency used a more simple phrase: “China will surely be reunified'. China has never renounced the use of force to bring it under Chinese control, though Xi made no mention of military threats in his speech carried on state television. “Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,' he added. The official English translation wrote “all Chinese' rather than “compatriots'. Last year, Xi said only that people on either side of the strait are 'members of one and the same family' and that he hoped people on both sides will work together to “jointly foster lasting prosperity of the Chinese nation'. The defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war with Mao’s communists who founded the People’s Republic of China. The Republic of China remains Taiwan’s formal name. The Jan. 13 presidential and parliamentary elections are happening at a time of fraught relations between Beijing and Taipei. China has been ramping up military pressure to assert its sovereignty claims over democratically governed Taiwan. Current Vice President Lai, the presidential candidate for Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Party (DPP) leading in opinion polls by varying margins says only Taiwan’s people can decide their future, as does Lai’s main opponent in the election, Hou, from Taiwan’s largest opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT traditionally favours close ties with China but strongly denies being pro-Beijing. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said Lai had “exposed his true face as a stubborn ‘worker for Taiwan independence’ and destroyer of peace across the Taiwan Strait' saying he is a dangerous separatist. 'His words were full of confrontational thinking,' spokesperson Chen said. Hou has also denounced Lai as an independence supporter. Since 2016 - when President Tsai took office - the DPP-led government has promoted separatism and is the 'criminal mastermind' in obstructing exchanges across the strait and 'damaging the interests of Taiwan’s people', Chen said. Lai said yesterday that the Republic of China and People’s Republic of China “are not subordinate to each other”, wording he and Tsai have used previously which has also riled Beijing. Tsai and Lai have repeatedly offered talks with China, but have been rebuffed. (Source: france24)

Gaza
31 December, 2023  Following Hamas' surprise October incursion, Israel launched a full-scale attack in Gaza, displacing nearly all its 2.3 million residents and killing at least 21,672 Palestinians, according to health authorities in Gaza, with more than 56,000 injured and thousands more feared dead under the rubble. The conflict has sparked concerns it could spread across the region, potentially involving Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen that have exchanged fire with Israel and its U.S. ally, or targeted merchant shipping. Israel cited progress in destroying Hamas infrastructure, including a tunnel complex in the basement of one of the houses of the Hamas leader for Gaza, Sinwar, in Gaza City. Troops also raided the Hamas military intelligence headquarters and an Islamic Jihad command centre in Khan Younis, and destroyed targets including a weapons foundry. Hamas and Islamic Jihad issued statements saying their fighters destroyed and damaged several Israeli tanks and troop carriers in attacks across Gaza yesterday. They also said they fired mortars against Israeli forces in Khan Younis and Al-Bureij as well as in northern Gaza. Israel says 172 of its military personnel have been killed in the Gaza fighting. Hamas media reported yesterday that Maali, a senior member of the group's armed wing, was killed in an Israeli strike in Gaza. It said Maali, originally from the West Bank, was freed during a 2011 prisoner swap and expelled to Gaza. The reports did not specify when he was killed. Residents and medics said yesterday's fighting was focused in al-Bureij, Nuseirat, Maghazi and Khan Younis in central and southern Gaza. Israeli military forces pressed ahead with an offensive that the prime minister reiterated will last "for many more months.' "The war is at its height," Netanyahu told yesterday. He added the Philadelphi Corridor buffer zone that runs along Gaza's border with Egypt must be in Israeli hands. "It must be shut," Netanyahu said. "It is clear that any other arrangement would not ensure the demilitarisation that we seek." Such a move by Israel would be a de facto reversal of its 2005 withdrawal from Gaza, placing the enclave under exclusive Israeli control after years being run by Hamas. Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas but its targeting and killing of tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza is increasingly being described as a genocide. (Source: newarab *)
* English version of a London-based pan-Arab news outlet owned by a Qatari media company.

Syria
Sunday - 31 December 2023  Israel is now seeking to weaken Iranian supply lines. Military developments are now escalating in Syria. Iran is stepping up its efforts to transfer weaponry. It is sending arms through Damascus Airport, which indicates an urgent and ongoing need for supplying its proxies, as using other routes could take longer. Damascus Airport is going in and out of service. The Israelis continue to target Damascus Airport to disrupt the supply of arms, and they will continue to escalate their targeting of influential Iranian leaders, constantly seeking bigger and more important targets, as seen in the attack on Mousavi in Damascus, as well as targeting Hezbollah's arms depots. All of that tells us Israel’s escalation cannot be separated from the war in Gaza. Israel’s escalating attacks on Syrian territory are not an extension of its consistent attacks, rather, they are part of the Israelis’ preparations for a new war on Lebanon, which could either be launched during its war on Gaza or immediately afterward. The name of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps official whom Israel recently assassinated in Syria, Mousavi, is the obvious headline of the story. The Iranians say he was tasked with managing IRGC supply lines. Israel's targeting of Mousavi, who has played prominent roles in Syria, is essentially aimed at disrupting Iranian supply lines sending equipment from Tehran to Lebanon, and thus to Hezbollah, and before it, other militias in Damascus and its surroundings. It is preparing to target Hezbollah, as well as other Iranian militias, to weaken them before the war in Lebanon breaks out. The pretexts are already available to the Israelis, who demand that Hezbollah militia men stay away from the Israeli border, as stipulated by UN Resolution 1701, and claim that they will ensure this happens either through negotiations or war. 'Israel’s motives are clear and easy to understand. The longer wars last, whether they are in Gaza or if one breaks out on the Lebanese borders, the better Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s chances of remaining in power. Netanyahu was dead politically, and he was awaiting imprisonment, the final nail in the coffin. However, the repercussions of the October 7th operation carried out by Hamas and the factions allied to it have extended his political life. He is now trying to emerge from this crisis as a national hero, after having been a corrupt politician'. Thus, we see tense and contradictory statements coming out of Iran as Israel escalates. Hezbollah, especially Nasrallah, remains silent. He has not said a word because he knows what is coming and that if a war erupts, it will be different from those that preceded it. If this war is waged, it would be a war of survival for both Netanyahu and Nasrallah. Netanyahu wants to escape his inevitable fate of imprisonment, and Nasrallah is trying to preserve what remains of Iran's prestige and its influence in Syria. (Source: aawsat *)
* Asharq Al-Awsat - Arabic international newspaper headquartered in London.

Red Sea
Sunday, December 31, 2023  Attacks on shipping vessels claimed by the Houthi rebels have increased since Israel declared war on militant group Hamas on Oct. 7. Yesterday, the U.S. shot down two anti-ship ballistic missiles that were fired by Houthi rebels toward he Maersk Hangzhao container ship on the Red Sea, CENTCOM said today. The Maersk Hangzhao said they were struck by a missile earlier yesterday, according to CENTCOM. Early today morning U.S. helicopters from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier and the Gravely responded to the distress call issued by the container ship Maersk Hangzhao - the second distress call the ship issued in less than 24 hours due to "being under attack by four Iranian-backed Houthi small boats." The boats, which originated from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, fired at the Maersk Hangzhao and attempted to board the vessel after getting within 20 meters of the container ship. A contract-embarked security team on the ship returned fire, the central command said. Following the another attack on the merchant ship as tensions continue to rise in the region, the U.S. Navy helicopters were starting to give out warnings to the attackers, when the Houthi-controlled small boat crews opened fire on the helicopters with crew-served weapons and small arms. "The U.S. Navy helicopters returned fire in self-defense," CENTCOM said. The United States sunk three of the four small boats and killed the crews, CENTCOM said. The fourth boat fled the area. No U.S. forces were injured and there was no damage to U.S. equipment. "This is the 23rd illegal attack by the Houthis on international shipping since Nov. 19," CENTCOM said.
(Source: thestate *)
* The State - American daily newspaper published in Columbia, South Carolina.

North America

United States
December 31, 2023  Republicans have a great chance to retake the Senate in 2024. There are 34 Senate races in 2024. Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents occupy 23 of the seats, eight of which are rated competitive or vulnerable by Inside Elections, a nonpartisan publication that analyzes House and Senate races. Republicans are only defending 11 seats, all of them in states won by Trump in 2020. Of those, only the Texas seat held by Sen. Cruz is rated competitive. “The Senate majority is firmly in play, and Republicans have a great opportunity to win control of the Senate,” said Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections. “But we’ve seen Republicans throw away opportunities before.'    In Arizona, former local TV news anchor Lake, a Republican is still contesting the results of her 2022 loss for governor.    In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Brown is defending the seat he has held since 2007. Ohio passed an Amendment for Abortion Rights on November 7, 2023. The amendment will take effect in 30 days, per Ohio law. Upon its enactment, it would prohibit limits on abortion before fetal viability. Any prohibitions on abortion after fetal viability – generally accepted as between 22-24 weeks gestation but would be determined by an individual’s doctor – would not apply should the pregnant person’s health or life be at risk. Gov. DeWine – who signed the six-week abortion ban into law – has long opposed abortion access. Secretary of State LaRose, who is also running for U.S. Senate, was among the most vocal opponents of the abortion amendment, even before it was placed on the ballot.    In West Virginia, a state that Trump won by almost 39 percentage points in 2020, when last month centrist Democratic Sen. Manchin decided not to run for re-election, Democrats’ hopes of keeping their 51-49 Senate majority took a hit. Trump has endorsed Republican Gov. Justice in West Virginia’s Republican primary. Justice is dominating polling against Republican Rep. Mooney. The winner of the GOP primary is expected to cruise to victory in the November general election. With West Virginia seen as off the table, the battle for the Senate is centered on Montana, where Democratic Sen. Tester is running for a fourth term, and Ohio.    Trump won Montana by 16 percentage points and Ohio by 8 percentage points in 2020. "Those races might not even matter. If Republicans successfully defend all their current seats and win Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, as expected, and if the party’s nominee also wins the White House, Republicans will control the Senate in 2024, thanks to the new vice president’s tiebreaking vote, without picking up any other seats". (Source: wsj)

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Orbán Viktor nemzetközi sajtótájékoztatója

Budapest, 2023. XII. 21.

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(Forrás: infostart):

http://tinyurl.com/yc6s8k78

Kulcsszavak:

alkotmány    Argentína    Atlanti Óceán    Bulgária    Csehország    Dubaj   Első világháború    Egyesült Államok    Európa    Európai Bizottság    Európai Bíróság    Európai Parlament    Európai Tanács    Európai Unió    Felvidék    Finland    Franciaország    Horvátország    Izrael    Kárpátalja    kommunista    Krím    Lengyelország    Magyarország    Második világháború    NATO    Németország    Parlament    Románia    Russia    Schengeni övezet    Sweden    Szerbia    Szlovákia    Szovjetunió    Turkey    Ukrajna    ünnep    Visegrádi országok    video

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Europe

Hungary
December 1, 2023  'The oligarchization of the economy, in my opinion, is much broader than most Hungarians realise." Hungary is not following a state capitalism model. It is not the state itself that owns most strategic assets, but businessmen close to the party in power, Fidesz. This is closer to the Putin playbook, creating a class of oligarchs that controls the commanding heights of the economy (banks, telecom interests, utilities, highway concessions, waste management, etc.) right down to an enormous network of small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Public assets, such as universities, have been rolled into foundations which are controlled, once again, by parties close to and dependent on Fidesz, for the very long-term. From the perspective of Fidesz: Should Fidesz lose power, under the oligarch model, presumably most oligarchs would remain loyal to Fidesz and could continue to provide a significant economic hinterland to Fidesz, from campaign financing to jobs and contracts to loyalists. These companies could withhold service and create disruption in the economy, bringing into question the economic competence of a successor government, thereby exercising a profoundly anti-democratic effect. What happens if an oligarch goes rogue? In 2015 Orbán decided to permit direct enrichment of oligarchs, rather than just filling Fidesz coffers. Simicska switched his allegiance to Jobbik, a far right political party at the time, which frontally attacked Fidesz ('We work, you steal!' was their main slogan). A resolution was reached in 2017, a few months before elections, when a buyout of Simicska’s assets by former gas equipment service man, Mészáros, being Orbán’s strawman, was arranged, including the purchase of construction company Közgép, and key media assets, for HUF 45 billion (over $300 million). An example of potentially losing oligarch assets via succession was the death of world-famous movie mogul Vajna. Normally, a simple estate procedure takes a year or more in Hungary. Vajna’s casinos were transferred to an investor group close to Garancsi, another businessman close to Fidesz, with unusual speed. Interests close to the government are negotiating for the purchase of Budapest Airport, a strategic asset worth a few billion euros. Rumour has it that French Vinci will co-invest and manage the asset. Interests close to the government have recently purchased a majority interest in Auchan, a supermarket chain, and at least one other international supermarket chain is bracing for an 'irresistible offer'. The creation of Magyar Bank Holding (MBH) from the merger of three nationalised banks (Budapest Bank, Takarékbank, and MKB Bank) to create an oligarch super-bank, offers the potential of accelerating this process of oligarchization, providing cheap and easy financing for oligarchs to buy and leverage assets. 4iG, a technology holding firm close to Fidesz, recently raised over EUR 400 million from MKB, with a state guarantee to boot, to buy Vodafone Hungary. So where does this all lead? Productivity growth of Hungarian companies (0.8% per year) is less than half of the European average (2%) over the past decade. Many SME owners are not willing to grow their businesses beyond a certain point for fear of becoming a target for oligarchs. "There comes a point when confidence of investors, domestic and foreign, may diminish or evaporate', Nemethy, "the CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors Ltd and a former official at the World Bank' wrote. (Source: intellinews)

Germany
2023. dec. 1.  A report conducted by the German Centre for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM) before the October attack found that since 2017, between 700 and 1,000 cases of Islamaphobic crimes have been reported to the police, with many others believed to go unreported. It also found that one in two people in the country agree with anti-Muslim statements. Germany has 5.5 million Muslim citizens – one of the biggest communities in Europe. Muslims in Germany feel increasingly alienated by the public discourse after Hamas-Israel conflict. In the second half of October, the number of anti-Muslim incidents has increased to three a day on average, including ten attacks on mosques, with a high number of undetected cases, according to CLAIM, a government-supported non-profit. Representatives of the Muslim community in Germany are concerned about increased marginalisation and a rise in Islamophobic incidents amidst a heated debate around anti-Semitism. 'The blanket suspicion towards Muslims, the de-facto marginalisation of Muslim interests and the voice of Muslims has created a serious [crisis of confidence] that we will have to deal with for years,' Mazyek, chair of the General Council of Muslims in Germany (ZMD), told on 27 November. He described an atmosphere of intimidation, with a spike in attacks on women wearing a hijab and Muslim students being singled out and challenged on their views by teachers. Last week, at the most recent Islam Conference (DIK), a forum initiated by the Interior Ministry to bring Muslim communities, the state, and civil society together, the theme was switched from Islamaphobia to anti-Semitism while the country’s largest Muslim organisation, ZMD, was not invited for unspecified reasons. Interior Minister Faeser mostly called out Muslim anti-Semitism in her speech and left shortly after – due to what a ministry spokesperson called time pressures. Still, Muslims in Germany, including their religious leaders, face pressure from civil society to address anti-Semitism coming from within their ranks. “In this situation, Islamic organisations should primarily address Muslims and, in my view, very little is coming from them. […] Public statements are nice but they don’t achieve anything,” Schuster, the president of the General Council of German Jews, told. 'Currently, Islamist anti-Semitism is evident in Germany and puts Jews in danger. However, we should not believe that right-wing anti-Semitism has suddenly disappeared,' Schuster said. 'In parallel with a surge in anti-Semitic incidents, Muslims in Germany have also seen a surge in hatred directed at them. It’s important to distinguish between private Muslim citizens and Islamic organisations,' Kaddor, a leading Green MP and influential advocate for Muslim causes told. Media and political leaders have highlighted recent anti-Semitic incidents, including crowds that appeared to be celebrating the Hamas attack in migrant-dominated quarters of Berlin, and caliphate flags shown at pro-Palestinian protests.  A public debate shaped in part by Germany’s historical guilt for the Holocaust has left little room to embrace Palestinian grief too, some observers say. The German government insisted on 27 November that it continues to back the two-state solution to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but stated that Israel’s protection was more pressing. (Source: euractiv)

Russia
Dec 1 2023  Four blasts rocked the ten-mile tunnel in the Severomuyskiy mountains as a train passed through last night. A source claimed Ukraine's SBU intelligence service was behind the attack in Russia's far east. 'There was an explosion on the Baikal-Amur mainline, in the Severomuyskiy tunnel. Currently, this route, which Russia uses for military supplies, is paralysed,' a Kyiv security source told. The tunnel attack could hamper trade with China. A 41-wagon goods train - including three tankers filled with aviation fuel - was reportedly blown up yesterday. And it will also limit the movement of Russian troops and military supplies from eastern Russia, where many of Putin’s conscripts hail from. Russian media reported a fire in the Severomuyskiy tunnel, but did not elaborate on what had caused it. They said specialist fire trains raced to the scene and no one had been hurt. 'The railway workers are unsuccessfully trying to minimise the consequences of the SBU special operation,' the source in Kyiv claimed. The blasts came only hours after a Ukrainian cyber attack saw a message from President Zelensky broadcast on TVs across occupied Crimea. Together with his spy chief Lt Gen Budanov, they declared: 'Crimea is ours.' The pair vowed to expel Russian forces and return annexed Crimea to Ukraine. 'The daring hack also saw the message 'Putin is a d***head' displayed on Crimean TVs'. Budanov's wife, along with intelligence officials, were poisoned with arsenic and mercury this week. Budanov and his senior officers are responsible for an increasing amount of daring attacks on Putin's home turf and have also taken responsibility for targeting key Russian war officials and Kremlin propagandists. Meanwhile, the Russian ruler revealed his dream as he demanded women serve Russia by having eight or more kids. "Large families must become the norm," Putin said in a TV address. “Thank God many of our people have a tradition of a strong multi-generational family, raising four, five and more children. “Let us remember how in Russian families many of our grandmothers and great grandmothers had seven, eight, or even more children. “Let's preserve and revive these wonderful traditions. “Having many children, a large family, should become a norm, a way of life for all the peoples of Russia," Putin said. The leader is now scrambling to reverse a plummeting birth rate and mass exodus - even plotting to trade prison sentences for pregnancies and limiting access to abortions. (Source: the-sun *)
* The U.S.Sun

Russia
01/12/2023  President Putin issued a decree today that would boost troop numbers 15 percent. 'The increase in the full-time strength of the army is due to growing threats to our country linked with the special military operation and the continuing expansion of NATO," the army said, adding that some 170,000 soldiers would join the force as a response to the "aggressive activity of the NATO bloc'. Russia said today its troops were advancing in every section of the Ukrainian front. The front lines have barely shifted in 2023 but fighting has remained intense. In recent days, improving weather conditions - following powerful storms across southern Ukraine and Russia earlier this week - have enabled Russia's forces to intensify their assaults and use drones again, Ukrainian officials said. The latest major flashpoint is the nearly encircled industrial town of Avdiivka. Part of the Donetsk region, the city - which was once home to around 30,000 people - has been on the front line since 2014. In a briefing with Russia's top military brass, Shoigu said his men were "effectively and firmly inflicting fire damage on the Ukrainian armed forces, significantly reducing their combat capabilities'. His ministry announced on November 29 it had taken control of Khromove, a small village on the outskirts of Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk region. Other territorial gains have proved elusive. Russian forces launched more than two dozen Iranian-designed attack drones and two missiles on the south and east of the country overnight, Ukraine said. The air force said it downed 18 of the drones and one missile over southern regions. Ukraine also said today it had orchestrated attacks on a Russian railway line in Siberia. 'Another fuel train has exploded on the Baikal-Amur railway,' a source in Ukrainian law enforcement agencies told, referring to the SBU security services. Moscow confirmed that earlier this week a train crew had spotted smoke in a fuel tank and called firefighters to the scene. Russia's defence ministry said it had destroyed a Ukrainian naval drone off the western coast of Crimea. (Source: france24)

December 1, 2023  Russian investigators said today a dual Russian-Italian national had been detained for planting bombs on railway tracks as part of a sabotage campaign orchestrated by Ukrainian military intelligence. After his arrest, the man, born in 1988 and a resident of Ryazan, confessed to planting home-made bombs that derailed a freight train in central Russia on Nov. 11. Investigators accuse him of launching a drone attack against a military airfield in the Ryazan region in July and derailing a freight train using an explosive device last month. "During questioning, the detainee confessed and said that in February 2023 he was recruited by an employee of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine,' the Investigative Committee said. The detained man admitted undergoing 'sabotage training in Latvia with the direct participation of the Latvian special services,' the Committee said. A freight train was derailed on Nov. 11 near the town of Rybnoe, about 177 km south-east of Moscow. (Source: reuters)

Ukraine
2023. dec. 1.  President Zelenskyy called for faster construction of fortifications in key sectors under pressure from Russian forces, particularly in eastern Ukraine, the focal point of Moscow’s advances. 'In all major sectors where reinforcement is needed, there should be a boost and an acceleration in the construction of structures,' Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on 30 November. 'This of course means the greatest attention to the Avdiivka, Maryinka and other sectors in Donetsk region. In Kharkiv region, this means the Kupiansk sector and the Kupiansk-Lyman line.' Zelenskyy issued his appeal after touring Ukrainian positions in the northeast, one of several areas where Russian forces have been trying to make recent headway and recapture areas taken back by Ukrainian troops a year ago. Russia has boosted attacks in several areas. These include Kupiansk near Kharkiv, retaken by Ukraine in a drive through the northeast a year ago. Ukrainian troops have made only incremental gains in the east and south. Russian forces have focused attention since mid-October on the devastated town of Avdiivka, known for its vast coking plant and its position as a gateway to the Russian-held regional centre of Donetsk, 20 km to the east. 'The plant is under our control. The enemy is suffering significant losses there,' military spokesperson Shtupun told, noting Russian artillery and air attacks inside and around the town. Russian forces have also been pressing near contested villages surrounding the equally shattered town of Bakhmut, captured by Russian forces in May after months of fighting.  Russia’s Defence Ministry on November 29 announced the capture of village Khromove. Unofficial Ukrainian accounts dispute that claim. Ukrainian military analyst Hrabskyi said the Russians sought to capitalise on their capture of Bakhmut to advance on at least three cities to the west. “It is crucial for the enemy to develop things in tactical terms with an eye to possibly advancing on Kostyantynivka, as well as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk,” Hrabskyi told. (Source: euractiv)

Asia

China
Dec 01, 2023  China is set to impose export controls on certain graphite products, potentially having a significant impact in the United States on both electric vehicle manufacturing and some military applications. In 2018, the U.S. Government underscored the criticality of graphite by including it on a list of 35 essential minerals, highlighting its vulnerability to supply chain disruptions and its importance in manufacturing processes crucial to the economy or national security. The restrictions, set to take effect from December 1, were announced on October 20 by China's General Administration of Customs and Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM). Analysts Benson and Denamiel, writing for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), highlighted the particular significance of these restrictions: "While the August controls were aimed at the chips sector, China's graphite controls have more bite in electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturing since the material is used as a key input for anodes, the negatively charged portion of the EV battery." In 2022, China was the top graphite-producing country in the world, as it produced an estimated 850,000 metric tons of graphite, a crystalline form of carbon. Shu, a spokeswoman for the MOFCOM, said that such export controls are an international norm and, to date, the ministry hasn't received any exemption applications from companies. The latest decision comes after China announced further export control restrictions on rare earths last month without naming the minerals covered by the restrictions. China's top spy agency, the Ministry of State Security (MSS), framed the context of these controls in broader terms in a WeChat post: "Just as human life is inseparable from vitamins, critical minerals are also called the 'vitamins' of strategic industries and are related to national development and national security". The MSS further criticized Western nations for their approach to securing critical minerals: "Some Western countries seek their own selfish interests and have established various 'small circles' such as the International Alliance on Energy and Critical Minerals, the Mineral Security Partnership, and the Sustainable Critical Minerals Alliance, and built 'small courtyards and high walls' to obtain critical mineral resources by any means, seriously hindering the process of globalization." The United States is heavily involved in the three critical mineral alliances mentioned. (Source: newsweek)

Gaza
1 December 2023  Explosions have been heard and smoke was seen rising in several parts of Gaza, after combat in the region resumed. Gaza City, Rafah and Khan Younis were among the places hit. A pause in fighting between Hamas and Israel lasted seven days, during which time 110 hostages held by Hamas and 240 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel were released. (Source: bbc)

1 Dec (2023)  Restart in hostilities. Deadline to extend ceasefire has passed. Israel says it has resumed fighting with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Hamas did not agree to release further hostages, which violated the terms of the truce. Hamas believes that Israel violated the truce agreement by not allowing fuel into the north of the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, Hamas was unwilling to release Israeli men held in Gaza on the same terms as the women and child hostages. In Gaza, 137 people who were kidnapped in the Hamas attacks on 7 October remain hostage – 20 women and 117 men, including Israeli military personnel. The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza says 32 people have been killed in three hours. It says more than 14,800 people have been killed, including about 6,000 children, since Israel began its campaign against Hamas in Gaza. The Israeli military appears to have dropped leaflets warning residents of Khan Younis in southern Gaza to head further south for their safety in nearby Rafah - close to the Egyptian border. This evening, a source close to the ceasefire talks in Qatar says negotiations about hostages have collapsed. Another truce does not, at the moment, seem likely. The Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) says Israel has blocked humanitarian aid from reaching the Gaza Strip "until further notice". The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza says 178 people have been killed in Israeli strikes, since the end of the truce this morning. "Most of whom are children and women,' the ministry says in a statement. It adds that there were also 589 injuries recorded during the day. Today the World Health Organization (WHO) was hoping to coordinate emergency medical teams to support Gaza’s few hospitals which are still functioning, but it says this is now unlikely. In al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City, which the WHO visited during the week-long truce, the team reported patients with 'the most horrific injuries' lying on floors 'running with blood', while the bodies of those who had been killed were lined up in the car park outside. Fighting, and the scarcity of water, electricity and fuel, has collapsed Gaza’s healthcare system. Israel said its warplanes attacked 200 targets throughout Gaza today. Late in the evening, reports from Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, spoke of some of the heaviest bombardment yet. (Source: bbc)

Israel
1 December 2023   Israel this morning relaunched its brutal offensive with full force, firing a barrage of missiles and sending warplanes screaming over Gaza as a week-long ceasefire expired today. According to a WSJ report, Israel has already started the preparation for targeted killings abroad. The Israeli officials told WSJ: 'The question now for Israeli leaders isn't about whether to try to kill Hamas leaders elsewhere in the world, but where - and how.' In November, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a press conference: 'I have instructed the Mossad to act against the heads of Hamas wherever they are'. During the same conference Israel Minister of Defence Gallant said the Hamas leaders were 'marked for death.' Hamas group's members are known to hide across the Middle East. Hamas terror chief Haniyeh was spotted cheering for joy from the safety of his Qatar office during the October 7 terror attacks. Former Mossad director Halevy reportedly described the plan as 'far-fetched'. 'Pursuing Hamas on a worldwide scale and trying to systematically remove all its leaders from this world is a desire to exact revenge, not a desire to achieve a strategic aim,' he said. Le Figaro reported that Qatar received assurances from Israel that Mossad will not eliminate terrorists on their soil. Despite the fresh violence, Qatari and Egyptian mediators are still negotiating a new extension of the seven-day truce. (Source: dailymail)
Some comments:
- "Extra judicial killings are murder."
- "Excellent, start in London."
- "Eliminate the threats for the future generations".

Taiwan
Dec 1, 2023  Beijing has sponsored cut-price trips to China for hundreds of Taiwanese politicians ahead of key elections on the island, according to Taiwan sources and documents, unnerving officials with a broad campaign that one called "election interference". President Tsai and other Taiwan officials have warned that China might try to sway voters toward candidates seeking closer ties with Beijing in the elections, which could define the island's relations with China. Beijing, which claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own and has ramped up military and political pressure to force the island to accept its sovereignty, frames the Jan. 13 presidential and legislative elections as a choice between "peace and war', calling the ruling party dangerous separatists and urging Taiwanese to make the 'right choice'. Taiwanese law forbids election campaigns from receiving money from "external hostile forces", including China. Beijing was targeting politicians crucial to the island's administrative systems who play key roles in shaping public opinion. Taiwan's Mainland minister, Chiu said it was 'self-evident" Beijing was trying to sway Taiwan elections through means including free trips for politicians. 'They have already made it clear that a so-called 'right choice' has to be made, meaning choosing candidates that the Chinese Communist Party prefers,' he told. Across Taiwan security agencies are looking into more than 400 visits to China in the past month, most led by local opinion leaders such as borough chiefs and village heads. People taking these trips typically pay their own airfare, but other expenses are offered by Chinese authorities. The agencies believe the trips, with discounted accommodations, transportation and meals, were subsidised by units under China's Taiwan Affairs Office. More than 20 borough chiefs from a district of the capital Taipei joined a China-sponsored trip to Shanghai with their families in September, while more than 10 people from an association for local politicians in neighbouring New Taipei City joined a trip this week, according to two security reports. "Certain borough chiefs have become the window of contacts in Taiwan for some Chinese units." In the investigation in the southern city of Kaohsiung, prosecutors said they believed the five trips from there were fully funded by China's Taiwan Affairs Office. So far this year, more than 1,000 borough chiefs or village heads joined such trips, more than last time, the official said, adding China was targeting electoral districts where support was strong for candidates campaigning for closer China ties. Building criminal cases against trip-takers is challenging, security officials said, because it can be hard to establish a money trail to Chinese state agencies behind the tours, which often come much below the going market rate, and to establish what was said during meetings with Chinese officials. Taiwan suspended group tours to China via travel agencies after the COVID-19 pandemic, but there are no restrictions on individuals visiting. (Source: indiatoday)

South America

Venezuela
Fri, December 1, 2023  A century-old territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana is threatening to escalate into a shooting war. Venezuelans going to the polls Sunday will be asked to answer in a five-part referendum an unusually provocative question: Should their government be given a blank check to invade neighboring Guyana, and wrest away three-quarters of its oil-rich territory? Venezuela claims ownership of about 61,600 square miles of Guyana, tracing its possession to the time both countries were European colonies. Although Venezuela has unceasingly contested an 1899 ruling made by international arbitrators that established the current borders between the two countries, it had allowed the issue to remain on the back burner for decades. The new area would be called Guayana Esequiba, a new Venezuelan state encompassing 74% of English-speaking Guyana’s current landmass. The resolution to put the question to Venezuelan voters was approved in September by the Maduro-controlled National Assembly, which said it is intended to “allow the Venezuelan people to express their views on a significant territorial dispute.” The regime has already launched an aggressive propaganda campaign over the news outlets it controls, with TV and radio stations every few minutes broadcasting jingles promoting one constant message: “The Essequibo is ours.” An overwhelming yes vote is expected, given that even Maduro’s opponents have either refrained from criticizing the referendum or have actually supported it. A yes vote on the referendum may provoke public demand that Maduro act to take over the disputed territory. Many Guyanese see the threat as real and fear the loss of their citizenship. The Essequibo area has more than 230,000 resident, a third of Guyanese population. Experts say an armed conflict with Guyana would lead to greater international isolation for Maduro, given that Guyana is a member of CARICOM, the 15-member Caribbean trade bloc whose support has been essential for Caracas in international forums such as the U.N. and the Organization of American States. In a press release last month the group said Venezuelan threats to stop Guyana from developing Essequibo’s natural resources is “contrary to international law.” Is meant Maduro‘s gambit to force Guyana to the negotiating table and give Venezuela a piece of the Essequibo? This week Brazil - a close ally of both nations that shares its border with both - sent top foreign advisor Amorin to mediate while announcing that it was increasing its military presence along its northern border amid fears that the long-standing dispute could turn into a war. Brazil cannot afford to allow that to happen, especially the forced aspect. Some of the country’s neighbors base their own borders on the same 1899 arbitration decision. Brazil has a border with every South American country with the exception of Chile and Ecuador, and some of those countries are not happy with their borders with Brazil. The border dispute is currently before the United Nations’ International Court of Justice. Guyana has asked the court to rule the 1899 decision valid and binding. In November, Guyana again went before the court, this time asking it to halt parts of Venezuela’s five-part referendum. The country hopes to have a decision from the court on Friday about the referendum. (Source: yahoo)

Globalization

December 1, 2023  Competing visions summed up the most divisive issue facing world leaders at this year's U.N. climate summit in Dubai, in the oil-producing United Arab Emirates. U.N. Secretary General Guterres urged world leaders at the COP28 climate summit to plan for a future without fossil fuels, saying there was no other way to curb global warming. Speaking a day after COP28 president al-Jaber proposed embracing the continued use of fossil fuels, Guterres said: "We cannot save a burning planet with a fire hose of fossil fuels." "The 1.5-degree limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels. Not reduce. Not abate," he said. "Unless we rapidly repair and restore nature's economy, based on harmony and balance, which is our ultimate sustainer, our own economy and survivability will be imperilled," said King Charles III of Britain, who has spent most of his adult life campaigning on the environment. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to admonish wealthy countries for their role in releasing the most climate-warming emissions since the Industrial Revolution. "Over the past century, a small section of humanity has indiscriminately exploited nature. However, entire humanity is paying the price for this, especially people living in the global south,' Modi said. Heine, a former Marshall Islands president, whose country faces inundation from climate-driven sea level rise, resigned from the main COP28 advisory board today in objection to the UAE's support of continued use of fossil fuels. The United Nations today published its first draft for what could serve as a template for a final agreement from the COP28 summit, which ends Dec. 12. The draft's central problem is of whether, and to what extent, fossil fuels should play a role in the future. One of the options involves including commitments to phase down or phase out the use of fossil fuels, to quit coal energy and to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. Also on the table for discussion is whether to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, which totaled some $7 trillion last year, and whether to include provisions for carbon capture and removal technology. The summit also clinched an early victory by adopting a new fund to help poor nations cope with climate disasters. Delegations and technical committees set to work today on the mammoth task of assessing their progress in meeting global climate targets, specifically the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to within 2 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial temperatures. Scientists say that a global temperature rise beyond this threshold will unleash catastrophic and irreversible impacts worldwide. (Source: reuters)

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Europe

Bulgaria
30 November 2023  In Bulgaria local elections were held on 29 October. The investigative journalism site Bivol revealed suspicious links between the elected centrist mayor of Varna, Kotsev, and some offshore transactions. Bivol's journalists claim that Kotsev was investigated by prosecutors before being granted the protection of mayoral candidate status. Kotsev was one of the few mayors from the pro-European PP-DB coalition to outperform the ruling GERB in major cities. (Source: voxeurop)

Romania
30 November 2023  Prelude to electoral 2024. With European and local elections dominating the agenda across the region, the media have already stepped up their efforts to expose the misuse of public resources, corruption and manipulation. For example, to interview Romanian President Iohannis, whose ten-year term ends in November 2024, the daily Libertatea sent one of its reporters to Cabo Verde, where Iohannis and his entourage, including his wife, had stopped on a tour designed to 'put Romania back on the African radar.' After examining one of the president's rented business jets and researching the presidential travel policies of other European countries, the investigative journalists from Recorder concluded that 'Romania turns out to be the only country in the EU where the president travels with private planes and then keeps the costs secret.' (Source: voxeurop)

The Netherlands
2023. nov. 30.  A week after Dutch leader Wilders sparked a political earthquake in the Netherlands and further afield with a stunning election victory, his task of building a coalition has become even more difficult. Wilders needs the backing of 76 MPs in the 150-seat parliament for a working majority. His Party for Freedom has 37 seats and his preferred coalition is with the BBB farmers party (seven seats), the all-new pro-reform New Social Party (20 seats) and the current ruling party, the centre-right VVD (24 seats). Wilders suffered a setback to his goal of forming a governing coalition yesterday. The VVD has already ruled out participation, saying it would support a centre-right coalition from the opposition benches. Wilders’ anti-Islam, anti-immigrant, and anti-EU manifesto also calls for a halt in weapons supplies to Ukraine. A key potential partner, the Dutch New Social Contract (NSC) and its list leader Omtzigt said on November 29, it did not see a way of working with the PVV unless it clarified the 'extreme parts' of its manifesto, which 'contains views which in our judgement go against the constitution… here we draw a hard line,” said a letter from Omtzigt to the scout charged with overseeing the negotiations. The manifesto calls for a ban on mosques, headscarves and the Koran, as well as a referendum on a Nexit - the Netherlands leaving the European Union. “All in all, the NSC faction does not now see any basis to start talks with the PVV about a majority or a minority government.' Wilders moderated his tone during the election campaign and has stressed since election night that he wants to be prime minister “for all Dutch” regardless of race or religion. “We notice that Mr Wilders has said he wants to put the relevant parts of his manifesto ‘in the freezer’. What is the status of the PVV manifesto now?” asked the NSC. (Source: euractiv)

European Parliament
2023. nov. 30.  Just a few months before the EU elections, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) remains the main political power in the EU, set to win 175 seats, three fewer than they currently hold, according to a new projection about EU Parliament’s seats by Europe Elects seen before its publication later today. The socialist S&D would remain at 141. The polls suggest that liberal Renew group, which currently holds 101 seats and is expected to decline to 89. Based on the projected numbers, a pro-EU grand coalition between the EPP, S&D and the Liberals seems to be a likely scenario. Just after summer, tensions between the EU centre-right and centre-left escalated following public disagreements on several policy files, such as a vote on the EU Nature Restoration Law and the Air Pollution Directive. The two parties exchanged harsh accusations regarding their stance toward EU-driven green policies in general and that the EPP eyed a coalition with far-right forces. Since late September, things seem to have calmed down - EPP boss Bakolas ruled out any collaboration between the EPP and the ECR or ID. “I think the EPP, the Socialists, ALDE [liberals], and the Greens are political elements within the EU that have guaranteed our Union is moving forward in the right direction,' Bakolas said. The Greens are collapsing electorally, set to decline from 72 to 52 seats. European far-right political forces have reached a record high: if EU elections were to be held today, anti-EU far-right political parties, which have united under the umbrella of the “Identity and Democracy” (ID) group in the EU Parliament, would win 87 out of 705 seats ( they currently hold 60 seats). According to the survey, ID’s significant electoral boost is expected to take over the conservative European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR) and become the fourth largest power in the EU House. The most recent gains for the ID group were partially driven by the victory of Wilders’ PVV in the Dutch elections last week, according to Europe Elects. ID consists of parties such as Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN), which leads polls in France; Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which ranks second in the German election, as well as Salvini’s Lega, which already is a coalition partner in Italy. A similar situation exists for Austria’s FPÖ, which steadily tops the polls in Vienna. Following the Dutch elections, Le Pen spoke out at EU institutions, saying they need a complete overhaul, clarifying that Europe should not fall apart and France should keep the Euro currency. “In total, about 23% of the seats would go to the two groups of the radical right in the EU Parliament, as per the current projection", Europe Elects commented. This does not include right parties that are not affiliated with the two groups, like the Hungarian Fidesz, which sits with the ideologically diverse Non-Inscrits (NI) in the EU Parliament. According to Europe Elects, far-right political forces in Europe have gradually changed their rhetoric, and instead of pushing for an exit from the EU, they now prioritise the need to change the EU in their public speeches. This element could help them break the tradition and mobilise voters ahead of the elections. (Source: euractiv)

2023. nov. 30.  'Pfizergate' affair lead EU lawmaker Rivasi, the Green MEP who pushed for the SMS exchanges between the European Commission President and Pfizer CEO to be made public, died on 29 November at the age of 70 of a heart attack while on her way to the European Parliament in Brussels. (Source: euractiv)

Europol
30 Nov 2023  Between 13 and 18 November 2023, law enforcement authorities across Europe joined forces to target firearms trafficking, drug trafficking, migrant smuggling and trafficking in human beings, and high-risk criminal networks during coordinated EMPACT Joint Action Days South East Europe. The intelligence-led approach saw police, customs, immigration agencies and border control agencies join forces. Spain coordinated the operational activities, while Europol coordinated the exchange of operational information between the parties involved. Police, gendarmerie, border guards, customs authorities and national units involved in combating organised crime across Europe cooperated, intensified checks at the EU’s external borders and special operations in the countries involved in these days. The operation was coordinated from an international coordination centre set up in Skopje, North Macedonia, where officers representing these authorities were present to facilitate international cooperation and respond to operational needs on the ground. The intelligence-led approach and cross-border operational coordination involved joint efforts by 22 488 officers from the participating authorities. Europol coordinated the exchange of operational information and supported the operational coordination. Europol also deployed experts on the ground to provide real-time analytical support to field operatives. The Netherlands deployed two teams with special scanning equipment to border crossing points in Greece and Montenegro. Frontex deployed experts and equipment to the external borders. Officers checked '288 774 entities' - 215 273 persons, 67 277 vehicles and 5 225 postal packages/parcels were checked - leading to the detection of 2 229 illegal entries. 2 229 illegal entries were detected and 566 arrests (218 related to migrant smuggling, 186 related to drug trafficking, 69 related to firearms trafficking, 89 related to other crimes). 114 forged documents were identified. Seizures included 310 weapons (84 automatic weapons, 65 pistols, 59 rifles, 22 grenade launchers, 16 revolvers, 7 carbine, 6 shotguns, 4 converted weapons, 2 air guns, other, 42 other); 20 206 pieces of ammunition; almost a tonne of drugs including 626 kg of cocaine, almost 300 kg cannabis, heroin and marijuana plants. The information exchange led to the opening of 121 new cases against criminal networks. Cyber patrolling was set up during the operational phase, between 13 and 18 November 2023. It focused on monitoring and investigative activities on different websites, forums and marketplaces on the clear and dark web as well as on messaging applications and social media networks. The operational activities were aimed at detecting the illicit trafficking of firearms and collecting further information on the identified targets. The online investigations also focused on re-enactment activities that could assist the operational actions on the ground. These investigations were conducted in native languages by officers from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine. The officers carried out these activities in a synchronised manner. Investigators identified 120 targets (accounts and/or individuals) related to the trafficking of firearms, 94 of which were on a messaging application, 11 on marketplaces and 10 on other clear websites and 5 on the dark web. Overall participants in all joint action days: 26 countries across Europe, supported by Europol, Eurojust, Frontex, INTERPOL and a number of international structures. EU Member States: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden; Non-EU countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Türkiye, Ukraine and United Kingdom. EU agencies: Europol, Eurojust and Frontex. International and institutional partners: EUBAM, IPA/2019 (EU co-funded projects: “EU Support to Strengthen the Fight against Migrant Smuggling and Trafficking in Human Beings in the Western Balkans” and “Countering serious crime in the Western Balkans), INTERPOL, PCC SEE (Police Cooperation Convention for Southeast Europe Secretariat), SEESAC (South Eastern and Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons), SELEC (Southeast European Law Enforcement Center), UNDP and UNODC. (Source: europol)

European Union
30.11.2023  Day of Remembrance for all Victims of Chemical Warfare. The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) is the world’s most successful disarmament treaty that has eradicated an entire category of weapons of mass destruction. "In July this year, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) verified the destruction of the world’s last declared chemical weapons stock". Despite the progress made, the re-emergence of chemical weapons remains one of the most serious threats to international peace and security. The use of chemical weapons is a violation of international law, which can amount to the most serious of international crimes - war crimes and crimes against humanity. The European Union supports national and international efforts towards full accountability for those responsible, regardless of their position. The EU continues its active participation in the Partnership Against Impunity for the Use of Chemical Weapons. No one should use chemical weapons, anywhere, at any time or under any circumstances. Every year, on 30 November, the European Union commemorates those who have died and suffered as a result of the use of chemical weapons, and pledges to continue to fight against impunity. In Syria, the EU has imposed restrictive measures on an entity and persons responsible for development and use of chemical weapons, in particular for the attacks that took place in August 2013 in Ghouta - in which the Syrian regime killed more than 1,400 people - March 2017 in Ltamenah and 2018 in Douma. They have caused thousands of victims, including children. The EU has imposed restrictive measures on persons and entities in Russia linked to the Salisbury attack in 2018 and the poisoning of Mr Navalny in 2020. Chemical weapons have also been used in Russia, the United Kingdom, Malaysia and Iraq. (Source: eeas)

Kosovo
November 30, 2023  Kosovo's police engaged in clashes with veterans of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) who were protesting outside a hotel in Pristina where the president of the Kosovo Specialist Chambers, Trendafilova, was lodged. Members of Kosovo’s leftist Social Democratic Party (PSD) attempted to access Sirius hotel in Pristina where Trendafilova was meeting with NGO representatives. The Kosovo Specialist Chambers & Specialist Prosecutor’s Office was set up in 2015 in The Hague to probe and prosecute war crimes committed by former KLA members who fought for independence from Serbia, during the conflict in 1998-99. The institution is working under Kosovo's jurisdiction. The protest saw KLA veterans expressing their opposition to the war crime court. Protesters voiced concerns about the lack of transparency within the court, highlighting its closed trial sessions and the absence of information regarding the sources of evidence. Key figures such as Kosovo's former president Thaci, ex-parliament speaker Veseli, and former MP Selimi, who were all leaders of the KLA, are presently facing trial in The Hague. Activating smoke bombs and launching pyrotechnic devices, the veterans clashed with the police, resulting in the use of tear gas by the police. The clash also led to the detention of several activists from the PSD, heightening the tensions on the streets of Pristina. As the situation escalated, journalists covering the protest were caught in the crossfire. The Kosovo police's use of tear gas created breathing problems for some reporters on the scene. The Association of Journalists of Kosovo expressed deep concern over the police actions, condemning the use of force against journalists and calling for respect for their professional duties. (Source: intellinews)

Moldova
30 November 2023  Moldova held local elections on 5 November, with the liberal PAS securing the majority of mayoralties (32.51%). A few days before the elections, however, Moldova's Commission for Emergency Situations barred the candidates of the "Chance" party from running, accusing the party of being financed with Russian money by fugitive MP Șor. The investigative newspaper Ziarul de Gardă – which recently accused Chicu, leader of the centrist PDCM, of sexist and hate speech after he called the paper's reporters "mediatic escorts' belonging to a 'mediatic brothel' – conducted impromptu interviews with voters from Orhei, a town that has traditionally voted for the Chance party. Ziarul de Gardă wanted to find out who would get the support of the people by removing their favourite from the race. However, the people of Orhei confessed that they had been manipulated. “It was a gathering, they gave us small papers. We have agents who inform us,' an elderly lady said. The winning candidate in Orhei was Cociu, who was supported by the leader of the "Chance" party, Lungu. (Source: voxeurop)

Russia
30 November (2023)  In a report, "The Russian Understanding of Soldier Morale: Essentials of Key Ideas from the 1990s to 2022", Gustafsson Kurki, senior researcher in FOI’s Defence Analysis Division looks into how Russian military analysts themselves reason about, and use, the concept of soldier morale. He created a model to explain the Russian view, analysing multiple Russian texts on the topic. Their concept of soldier morale revolves heavily around religious spirituality, which is used to legitimise the armed forces and Putin’s power. Associating morale with the Orthodox Church is desired. The model consists of three parts: Russian spirituality, emotionality-based communality and coercion. In the military-analytical texts, the Russian view of spirituality is strongly linked to religiosity and churchliness. Russian spirituality corresponds to the concept of duchovnost, which is a far more important quality in Russian soldiers than the possession of high-tech weapons, according to some Russian military analysts. When they write about duchovnost, they are more often referring to a Christian belief in God, Gustafsson Kurki says. “The texts refer to religion as the highest value that motivates soldiers to fight, and that spirituality and soldier morale are two sides of the same coin". “They are trying to legitimise the armed forces and Putin’s power by associating the Orthodox Church with themselves. Almost every Russian thinks duchovnost is important. By connecting it to the armed forces, it becomes more difficult for any critics to speak out. The second part of the model deals with emotionality-based communality. In military-analytical texts, soldier morale is not considered an individual matter, but as something possessed by a military collective – that is, companies, battalions, or the entire army. The collective is emphasised over the individual. This is also expressed in how coercive power and the military order are seen, which is as a sacred instruction that must be fulfilled at all costs. Soldiers who receive orders must show a willingness to sacrifice and blindly obey the order, while officers are described as emanating willpower and initiative in a completely different way,” says Gustafsson Kurki. Third, and the aspect of Russian thinking about soldier morale that most overlaps with Western thinking is coercive power. All military organisations are based on the state’s monopoly on violence and, by extension, its coercive power. Individuals may be ordered to do things that sometimes involve killing, or that result in their own deaths. “Basically, it is the same phenomenon that exists in all defence and armed forces. What distinguishes the Russian view of soldier morale from the Western one is the explicit role of spirituality, belief in God and religion.” The texts studied by Pär Gustafsson Kurki are philosophically oriented and half of the texts come from the Ministry of Defence’s own scientific journal. “The writers often have military ranks, so what is expressed comes from the military establishment, from people loyal to the regime.” Gustafsson Kurki conducted a short empirical study for the report to see if the alleged significance of duchovnost had practical implications. The Russian Armed Forces has invested in chaplains to some degree, but their number is modest in relation to the need, according him. “They still make a big deal out of the investments and bang the drum in the media, so it has more of an ideological point than a clear role in military efficiency. One sign of this is that Russia has previously managed to fight wars and achieve political goals without an elaborate system of chaplains, for example in the Second Chechen War.” In practice, factors such as discipline, functioning logistics and access to supplies and ammunition have been more important for Russia’s military success than the alleged importance of spirituality, Gustafsson Kurki says. He believes that by emphasising duchovnost, there is a risk that the Russians will be deluded about their own capabilities. 'They risk falling for their own propaganda. A contributing factor in their continued fight in Ukraine may be that they believe they have a spiritual quality that makes them destined to win, despite already shooting off much of their best materiel in the war.” 'If you wanted to reform how morale is viewed, you would also need to reform the rest of society. This is quite unlikely to happen, since the current regime is so invested in maintaining power. This model will probably be relevant for a long time to come.” (Source: foi *)
* the Swedish Defence Research Agency

Serbia
30 November 2023  A round of elections is fast approaching in Serbia this December. The upcoming vote is both local and parliamentary. The elections will also gauge Serbia's opinion of the current leadership led by President Vučić. After CRTA opinion polls institute claimed that for the first time more citizens gave Vucić a negative rating than a positive one, the Danas newspaper spoke to political analyst Mladenović. He explained that Vučić's electoral support is likely to decline due to a normal phenomenon that occurs after times of crisis. 'Speaking to the same newspaper, actress Bojković, who joined the ProGlas petition (signed by over 140,000 citizens) to encourage people to vote, fears that Serbia could face civil war if people don't vote in large numbers'. (Source: voxeurop)

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Asia

China
Thursday, November 30, 2023  China‘s high-altitude balloon program is linked to the military’s hypersonic missile program and a new command for both systems is prepared to conduct 'merciless' attacks in a future conflict with the United States, according to a Chinese defense research report by a group of researchers at the National University of Defense Technology. It states that the military set up a new command for both hypersonic missiles and the high-altitude balloons - like the suspected surveillance balloon shot down in February off the South Carolina coast by an Air Force jet fighter after traversing much of the continental U.S. 'Hypersonic weapons can attack rocket launch sites, [destroying] the enemy’s ability to fire anti-satellite missiles on our civilian satellite networks,' the report said. 'These attacks must be precise, overwhelming and merciless. This could change the pace of battles and bring a major impact to how a war would end.' The report, “Near Space Operations Command,” made public during a Beijing conference on command and control in October, said the new operations command will direct hypersonic missiles against heavily protected targets, including communications equipment and hubs in the heartland of an adversary. The same command also operates “a large number” of spy balloons, solar-powered unmanned aerial vehicles and other support equipment, the report said. China‘s high-altitude balloons are under the control of the People’s Liberation Army, according to defense officials and likely operated by the Strategic Support Force, a separate military branch in charge of military spying, cyberattacks, and electronic and psychological warfare. The balloons and autonomous systems operate at low speeds and can stay at high altitudes for weeks or months and provide surveillance and communications relay points. China is a world leader in hypersonic missiles, which can be armed with either nuclear or conventional warheads, according to a recent annual report by the congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. The China defense report describes hypersonic missiles as effective weapons that can strike targets minutes after launch and can maneuver to avoid anti-missile defenses. Its first operational hypersonic is the DF-17 missile topped with a hypersonic glide vehicle. The DF-41 has a hypersonic last stage that traveled nearly 25,000 miles in space before hitting a surface target in a 2021 test. China also is developing the Starry Sky-2, a hypersonic missile with warheads capable of penetrating current missile defenses. Beijing military planners could also use the new missiles to target civilian infrastructure such as launch pads for SpaceX rockets in the United States, the China defense technology report said. However, the missiles can pose challenges for political and international relations, the Chinese authors acknowledged. The near space combat force is in the early stages of rapid development, but it contains units that are not fully operational and lack standardized combat operations, the report said. “It is necessary to adjust the hierarchy of command and control powers, selection of command methods, implementation of executive orders and support for command communication.” The authors recommend that commanders acquire a deeper understanding of world affairs, national policies and strategic guidelines. During a conflict, senior PLA leaders should be able to delegate some authority to near space commanders that would improve decision-making and action time. 'The command headquarters and control stations of the near-space force will be the key targets of enemy reconnaissance and strikes,' the report said. 'The competition around the destruction and anti-destruction of these targets will be extremely intense.' According to the report, the near space command would take full control of hypersonic weapons from other PLA branches, such as the Rocket Force, in conducting rapid strikes on strategic enemy targets. The report, posted on the Chinese research database CNKI.net, was first disclosed by the South China Morning Post. A review of the database reveals that China has published hundreds of reports on near space, including its use for weapons. Beijing analysts define the near space domain as the zone 12 miles to 62 miles above the Earth’s surface, below what is officially and legally considered outer space. The air in that middle zone is considered too thin for aircraft and too dense to support orbiting satellites. 'Near space' is a new zone of conflict that will determine the outcome of future wars, according to Chinese strategists, but the legality of the concept is not sharply contested. 'Near space has become a new battleground in modern warfare,' the Liberation Army Daily, a state-run newspaper affiliated with the People’s Liberation Army, wrote in a recent editorial. Listner, founder and principal of Space Law and Policy Solutions, said China stepped up promoting its narrative of near space during the spy balloon incident, which sent bilateral relations with Washington plummeting. “Legally, there is no such creature as ‘near-space,’” he said, calling the Chinese argument “very dangerous.” “The stratospheric region above a sovereign nation is still sovereign airspace. But it appears the PRC is initiating a lawfare operation to create a legal ambiguity to justify not only balloon flights, but hypersonic weapons as well,' he said. Garretson, a space expert with the American Foreign Policy Council, said China is seeking to redefine near space, a concept that in the past was used to describe sovereign airspace where flight by propeller and fixed-wing aircraft was difficult. Previously, the domain was still considered sovereign territory and not unrestricted space that any nation could enter. “It has been a common legal understanding that until you are in outer space, you are in sovereign airspace,” Mr. Garretson said. “This is yet another example of China‘s all-domain press to redefine rules and definitions to their advantage - a way to condition the world to their relentless and imperial encroachment, and to justify acts of aggression such as their balloon incursion of multiple nations’ sovereign airspace,' he said. A report by the U.S. military’s Indo-Pacific Command’s joint operational law team argues that Beijing has been promoting the term “near space” in multiple publications in a bid to 'foment a gray zone in which to execute unlawful surveillance under a false veneer of legitimacy.' Gray zone is a military term used to describe low-level warfare. “There is no ‘near space’ in international law – only airspace and outer space, and [high-altitude balloons] fly in airspace,” the U.S. legal analysis said. The latest Chinese report on the new near space command, however, suggests the spy balloon program, which so far has been detected operating over 40 nations, is gathering information for use by hypersonic missiles, which travel at speeds greater than five times the speed of sound and can maneuver while skimming just below outer space. People’s Liberation Army surveillance balloons traveling in the stratosphere can gather valuable intelligence on wind, temperature and other conditions that would aid hypersonic missile attacks. (Source: washingtontimes)

Gaza
(30 November 2023)  Satellite images show almost 98,000 buildings may be damaged in Gaza, reveal the extent of destruction across the north of the Strip, before the start of the temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The satellite images were taken last Thursday, 23 November, just before the suspension of hostilities came into force, following weeks of Israeli air strikes and on-the-ground fighting. A whole series of craters are visible in what was once a residential area. Some of the buildings on the beach front, which boasted Gaza's first five-star hotel, the Al-Mashtal, as well as huts and restaurants, appear to have been partially destroyed. (Source: bbc)
Note: Maps (Source: bbc): https://tinyurl.com/y2t4t2p5

29 Nov (2023)  Who are the armed militant groups in Gaza? Living and operating amongst Gaza’s 2.3 million people are thought to be up to 11 different armed factions, mostly Islamist, ranging from the largest and most powerful, Hamas, down to small, armed gangs. When Hamas launched its cross-border raid into southern Israel on 7 October, its uniformed gunmen were accompanied by others from those gangs and even unaffiliated individuals. Hence the recent delays in releases. Hamas needs to bring the remaining Israeli hostages under its control so it can bargain for further extensions in the temporary truce. The main groups are as follows:    Hamas. Founded in 1987 and ruling Gaza since 2007, it had an estimated 20,000 to 30,000 fighters in its armed wing - the Izz Al-Din Al-Qassam Brigades. It's funded and supported by Iran. Hamas’s charter remains dedicated to the destruction of the state of Israel.    Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). Founded in 1981 by Palestinian students living in Egypt. A close ally of Iran. Vows to destroy Israel. Believed to have between 1,000 and 8,000 fighters under the brand "Al-Quds Brigades".     Al-Nasser Salah Al-Deen Brigades. Third largest faction, an ally of Hamas and PIJ. Contributes to the Gaza police force. Reported to have participated in joint attacks with Hamas including the kidnapping of Israeli soldier Shalit in 2006.     Mujahideen Brigades. The armed wing of the Palestinian Mujahideen Movement. Operates in both Gaza and West Bank. Also reported to have ties to Iran. In 2023 its spokesman warned that the issues of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons and confrontations over Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque were "a ticking time bomb'. (Source: bbc)

November 30, 2023  Israel and Hamas struck a last-minute agreement on Thursday (Nov 30) to extend their ceasefire for a seventh day. The truce was due to expire at 0500 GMT. It has allowed much needed humanitarian aid into Gaza after much of the coastal territory of 2.3 million people was reduced to wasteland by seven weeks of Israeli bombardment in retaliation for a deadly rampage by Hamas militants on Oct 7. Israel has sworn to annihilate Hamas, which rules Gaza, in response to the Oct 7 rampage by the militant group, when Israel says gunmen killed 1,200 people and took 240 hostages. Palestinian health authorities deemed reliable by the UN say more than 15,000 Gazans have been confirmed killed, around 40 per cent of them children. A further 6,500 are missing, many feared still buried under rubble. Israel, which has demanded Hamas release at least 10 hostages per day to keep the ceasefire going, said it received a list at the last minute of those who would go free on Thursday, allowing it to call off plans to resume fighting at dawn. Hamas, which freed 16 hostages on Wednesday while Israel released 30 Palestinian prisoners, also said the truce would continue for a seventh day. So far militants have released 97 hostages during the truce: 70 Israeli women and children, each freed in return for three Palestinian women and teenage detainees, plus 27 foreign hostages freed under parallel agreements with their governments. With fewer Israeli women and children left in captivity, extending the truce could require setting new terms for the release of Israeli men, including soldiers. Hamas had earlier said Israel had refused its offer to hand over seven women and children plus the bodies of three others. It said on Wednesday the youngest hostage, 10-month-old Bibas, had been killed along with his four-year-old brother and their mother in Israeli bombardment, a claim Israel said it was checking. The conditions of the ceasefire, including the halt of hostilities and the entry of humanitarian aid, remain the same, according to Qatar which has been a key mediator between the warring sides, along with Egypt and the US. Israel rejects a permanent ceasefire as benefitting Hamas, a position backed by Washington. Once the truce is over, Israel is expected to extend its ground campaign into the south. Two-thirds of Gazans are homeless, most of them sheltering in the south after Israel ordered the complete evacuation of the northern half of the tiny coastal strip. UN Secretary-General Guterres said on Wednesday the Gaza Strip was in the midst of an "epic humanitarian catastrophe", and he and others called for a full ceasefire to replace the temporary truce. Shortly after the agreement a deadly shooting in Jerusalem was a potent reminder of the potential for violence to spread. Israeli police said two Palestinian attackers opened fire at a bus stop during morning rush hour at the entrance to Jerusalem, killing at least three people. "Two terrorists arrived at the scene in a vehicle armed with firearms, these terrorists opened fire towards civilians at the bus station and were subsequently neutralised by security forces and a nearby civilian," the police said. Jordan will host a conference attended by the main UN, regional and international relief agencies on Thursday to coordinate aid to Gaza. (Source: asiaone)

Israel
Nov. 30, 2023  Failure of analysis and imagination. Israeli officials obtained Hamas’s battle plan for the Oct. 7 attack more than a year before it happened, documents, emails and interviews show. The approximately 40-page document, which Israeli authorities code-named 'Jericho Wall,' outlined, point by point, exactly the kind of devastating invasion that led to the deaths of about 1,200 people. It was among several versions of attack plans collected over the years. A 2016 Defense Ministry memorandum says: 'Hamas intends to move the next confrontation into Israeli territory.' Such an attack would most likely involve hostage-taking and 'occupying an Israeli community (and perhaps even a number of communities),' the memo reads. In September 2016, the defense minister’s office compiled a top-secret memorandum based on a much earlier iteration of a Hamas attack plan. The memorandum, which was signed by the defense minister at the time, Lieberman, said that an invasion and hostage-taking would 'lead to severe damage to the consciousness and morale of the citizens of Israel.' The memo said Hamas had purchased sophisticated weapons, GPS jammers and drones. It also said Hamas had increased its fighting force to 27,000 people - having added 6,000 to its ranks in a two-year period. Hamas had hoped to reach 40,000 by 2020, the memo determined. Hamas followed the 'Jericho Wal' blueprint with shocking precision. The document - which begins with a quote from the Quran: 'Surprise them through the gate. If you do, you will certainly prevail' - detailed barrage of rockets at the outset of the attack, to distract Israeli soldiers and send them hurrying into bunkers, drones to knock out the security cameras and automated machine guns along the border, and gunmen to pour into Israel en masse in paragliders, on motorcycles and on foot - all of which happened. Hamas fighters would break through 60 points in the wall, storming across the border into Israel. The plan also included details about the location and size of Israeli military forces, communication hubs and other sensitive information. One of the most important objectives outlined in the document was to overrun the Israeli military base in Re’im, which is home to the Gaza division responsible for protecting the region. Hamas carried out that objective Oct. 7, rampaging through Re’im and overrunning parts of the base. The translated document did not set a date for the attack, but described a methodical assault designed to overwhelm the fortifications around the Gaza Strip, take over Israeli cities and storm key military bases, including a division headquarters. All militaries write plans that they never use, and Israeli officials assessed that, even if Hamas invaded, it might muster a force of a few dozen, not the hundreds who ultimately attacked. The document circulated widely among Israeli military and intelligence leaders, but Israeli military and intelligence officials dismissed the plan as aspirational, considering it too difficult for Hamas to carry out. That belief was so ingrained in the Israeli government, officials said, that they disregarded growing evidence to the contrary. Last year, shortly after the document was obtained, officials in the Israeli military’s Gaza division said Hamas’ intentions were unclear. 'It is not yet possible to determine whether the plan has been fully accepted and how it will be manifested,' read a military assessment. The military’s Gaza division drafted its own intelligence assessment of this latest invasion plan. Hamas had 'decided to plan a new raid, unprecedented in its scope,' analysts wrote in the assessment. It said that Hamas intended to carry out a deception operation followed by a 'large-scale maneuver' with the aim of overwhelming the division. The Gaza division referred to the plan as a “compass.' In other words, the division determined that Hamas knew where it wanted to go but had not arrived there yet. On July 6, three months before the attacks, a veteran analyst with Unit 8200, Israel’s signals intelligence agency, warned that Hamas had conducted an intense, daylong training exercise that appeared similar to what was outlined in the blueprint. “I utterly refute that the scenario is imaginary,” the analyst wrote in the email exchanges. The Hamas training exercise, she said, fully matched 'the content of Jericho Wall.” But a colonel in the Gaza division brushed off her concerns, according to encrypted emails viewed. The colonel applauded the analysis but said the exercise was part of a 'totally imaginative' scenario, not an indication of Hamas’ ability to pull it off.' 'In short, let’s wait patiently,' the colonel wrote. The back-and-forth continued, with some colleagues supporting the analyst’s original conclusion. “It is a plan designed to start a war,” she added. The veteran Unit 8200 analyst wrote to a group of other intelligence experts that dozens of Hamas commandos had recently conducted training exercises, with senior Hamas commanders observing. The training included a dry run of shooting down Israeli aircraft and taking over a kibbutz and a military training base, killing all the cadets. During the exercise, Hamas fighters used the same phrase from the Quran that appeared at the top of the Jericho Wall attack plan, she wrote in the email exchanges viewed. The analyst warned that the drill closely followed the Jericho Wall plan, and that Hamas was building the capacity to carry it out. While ominous, none of the emails predicted that war was imminent. Nor did the analyst challenge the conventional wisdom among Israeli intelligence officials that Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, was not interested in war with Israel. But she correctly assessed that Hamas’ capabilities had drastically improved - the gap between the possible and the aspirational had narrowed significantly. The Israeli military was unprepared as terrorists streamed out of the Gaza Strip. The Jericho Wall document lays bare a yearslong cascade of missteps that culminated in what officials now regard as the worst Israeli intelligence failure since the surprise attack that led to the Arab-Israeli war of 1973. Israeli security officials have already acknowledged that they failed to protect the country. Israel had also misread Hamas’ actions - the group had negotiated for permits to allow Palestinians to work in Israel, which Israeli officials took as a sign that Hamas was not looking for a war. The government is expected to assemble a commission to study the events leading up to the attacks. (Source: seattletimes)

Red Sea
Thursday 30/11/2023  The Carney destroyer, a US Navy warship in the Red Sea shot down an Iran-produced drone launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. “Although its intentions are not known, the UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) was heading toward the warship,” the US Central Command, part of the US Department of Defence, said yesterday, adding that at the time the Carney was escorting two ships, one of which was carrying military equipment 'to the region'. An Israeli container shipping line said on Sunday, November 26, it expected longer sailing times for its vessels. Insurance industry sources said they expected war risk premiums to rise in the area, especially for Israel-linked shipping. (Source: thearabweekly)

Taiwan
November 30, 2023  At the meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents in California this month, the Chinese leader was telling his U.S. counterpart that reunification was "unstoppable." Self-ruled Taiwan is holding its presidential election in January, and this is under scrutiny including by policymakers in Beijing and Washington, as it could determine Taipei's ties with an increasingly bellicose Beijing. China is not likely to consider a major invasion of Taiwan for now grappling with domestic economic, financial and political challenges, the island's president Tsai said yesterday, although Beijing is attempting to sway the outcome in its favor. "I think the Chinese leadership at this juncture is overwhelmed by its internal challenges," Tsai told the 2023 DealBook Summit in New York. Tsai is not able to run in the upcoming election, as she will have completed the maximum of two terms in office. Asked if the United States' attempt to boost its chip manufacturing capabilities could make Washington's ties with Taipei less valuable in the long run, Tsai added that the island's current semiconductor industry cannot be replaced by anywhere else. (Source: voanews)

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North America

United States
Wed November 1, 2023  'There’s a smarter way to eliminate Hamas'. Israel’s strategy for defeating Hamas - destroying its military and political capabilities to the point where the terrorist group can never again launch major attacks against Israeli civilians - is unlikely to work. Indeed, Israel is likely already producing more terrorists than it’s killing. Although the principle - of separating the terror group from the broader population - is simple, it is incredibly difficult to achieve in practice. 'Right now, we are witnessing not the separation of Hamas and the local population, but the growing integration of the two, with likely growing recruitment for Hamas'. To defeat terrorist groups, it is crucial to engage in long campaigns of selective pressure, over years, not simply a month (or two, or three) of heavy ground operations, and to combine military operations with political solutions from early on. The only way to create lasting damage to terrorists is to combine, typically in a long campaign of years, sustained selective attacks against identified terrorists with political operations that drive wedges between the terrorists and the local populations from which they come. Israel needs a new strategic conception for defeating Hamas. The only viable way to separate Hamas from the local population is politically. Israel doesn’t appear to have a political plan for the period after eliminating Hamas. Since 2006, Hamas has been the only government in Gaza. Israel claims it does not want to govern Gaza, but Gaza will need to be governed, and Israel has yet to explain what a post-Hamas Gaza will look like. What will prevent Hamas 2.0 from filling the power vacuum? Given the absence of serious political alternatives to Hamas, why should Palestinians abandon Hamas? There is an alternative: now, not later, start the political process toward a pathway to a Palestinian state, and create a viable political alternative for Palestinians to Hamas. It must be the Palestinians who decide who leads Gaza. This new strategic conception is the best way to defeat Hamas, secure Israel’s population and advance America’s interests in the region. (Source: cnn)
Note: Opinion by Pape, professor of political science and director of the University of Chicago

Nov. 01, 2023  Not since the days of the Pharaoh had a Diaspora community enjoyed such proximity to political power and relative safety from age-old antisemitism than in the United States. But in the three weeks since Oct. 7, that notion of safety and security has been turned upside down. Those on the pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian sides of the current conflict in Gaza do not agree on much. While one group views the Israeli military’s actions as a legitimate act of self-defense, the other sees it as a continuation of Israel’s oppressive policies toward the Palestinian people. But if there is one issue on which both sides should, at least, theoretically agree, it’s that the targeting of Jews writ large, in the United States and elsewhere, is unacceptable and must be roundly condemned. And yet, in a terrifying and disheartening turn of events, Diaspora Jews are finding themselves under attack, and at times, even blamed for the violence and harassment perpetrated against them. Since Oct. 7, when Hamas terrorists crossed the border from Gaza into Israel and massacred more than 1,400 Israelis, there has been a dramatic and terrifying increase in antisemitism - and the silence from those criticizing Israel and “contextualizing” Hamas’ actions has been deafening. It has, for American Jews, become a disturbing and yet all too familiar reminder of the very real threats facing Diaspora Jews and the indifference of progressive allies toward antisemitism. American Jews are rightfully afraid, not just because Jews have become a target, but because it seems no one has our back. It follows a growing surge in antisemitic incidents well before Oct. 7. According to an April report from the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), there were more antisemitic incidents in 2022 than in any year since the ADL began compiling the data in 1979. In Arizona, a college professor was killed by a former student because he thought the man was Jewish. In February, two people were shot outside synagogues in Los Angeles by the same assailant. It’s the more low-profile incidents that are creating much fear - the harassment of Jews and vandalism of Jewish community centers and temples. More than two-thirds of Jewish Americans report seeing antisemitic speech online and one in four have been targeted in an antisemitic incident. 80 percent also believe that antisemitism has gotten worse over the past five years. Since Oct. 7. - according to data compiled by the ADL - there was an astounding 388 percent increase in harassment, vandalism, and violence against Jews in the 16 days after the Hamas massacre, compared to the same period in 2022. That’s 312 recorded antisemitic incidents versus 64 a year ago. It is happening after the worst Jewish massacre since the Holocaust. Rather than building sympathy for Jews, Oct. 7 has bred even greater hatred. Since Oct. 7 antisemitism has been a largely left-wing phenomenon. Posters depicting Israelis kidnapped by Hamas and held as hostages in Gaza are now regularly torn down by pro-Palestinian activists, decrying them as “propaganda.” As Mintz, one of the Israeli artists responsible for the fliers, depressingly put it, “By accident, this campaign did more than bring an awareness of the kidnapped people. It brought awareness of how hated we are as a community.” On college campuses, Jews are increasingly under siege. At Columbia University, an Israeli student was attacked by a woman when he confronted her about tearing down posters of kidnapped Israelis. At Cooper Union in Manhattan, Jewish students, fearing for their lives, barricaded themselves in a school library after pro-Palestinian demonstrators began banging on the doors and chanting “Free Palestine.” On Monday, October 30, Jewish students at Cornell University were advised to stay away from the campus’s kosher dining room because of statements on a local message board threatening to harm Jewish students. At Tulane University, several Jewish students were assaulted after attempting to stop pro-Palestinian protesters from setting an Israeli flag on fire. Posters distributed around the New York University campus of people kidnapped by Hamas are vandalized and covered with pro-Palestinian graffiti. It’s increasingly difficult to keep track of all the pro-Hamas and antisemitic statements of college professors. A professor at the University of California called on her Twitter followers to identify “Zionist journalists” and, in a post decorated with dripping blood and a knife, warned that “they can fear their bosses, but they should fear us more.' An art professor in Chicago called Israelis 'pig, savages, very, very bad people' and said, 'May they all rot in hell.' (She apologized in a later post.) More than a hundred Columbia professors recently signed an open letter about the crisis that never mentions Hamas or terrorism and refers to the events of Oct. 7 as a “military action.” A Cornell professor described the massacre - which included the decapitation of children and setting people on fire while still alive - as 'exhilarating' and 'energizing' (he also apologized). A Yale University Associate Professor called Oct. 7 “an extraordinary day.” At George Washington University in Washington, D.C., pro-Palestinian demonstrators projected messages on a campus building that called for Palestine to be “free from the river to the sea,' a now popular chant on college campuses, which is euphemistically a call for eradicating a Jewish state and its residents. In Los Angeles, a man was arrested after breaking into a Jewish family’s home, yelling “Free Palestine” and 'Kill Jews.' An assailant shoved a Jewish woman in Manhattan, screaming, 'This pig has got to go.” On Oct. 15, a man punched a woman in the face on a 7 train at Grand Central Terminal in New York. When she asked why he hit her, the man responded, 'You are Jewish.' Countless Jewish communities have reported threats against Jewish community centers and temples and antisemitic graffiti. And it’s not all coming from the pro-Palestinian left. Plenty of the anti-Jewish harassment in America of late has come from the racist right. In Parkland, Florida, a group of bicyclists shouted 'Kill the Jews' outside a synagogue during Shabbat services. In Macon, Georgia, Waco, Texas, and Traverse City, Michigan, individuals associated with the “Goyim Defense League” handed out leaflets blaming Jews for the 'killing of Christ,' mass immigration, “every single aspect of the LGBTQ+ agenda” and even COVID-19. In Missoula, Montana, a White Lives Matter group marched outside a local synagogue displaying antisemitic signs. In Santa Monica, a man shouted antisemitic slogans and raised his arms in a Nazi salute outside a Jewish Sunday school. While previous bouts of racist violence in America, including a recent spate of anti-Asian attacks, led to increased media and activist attention, a nearly 400 percent increase in antisemitic incidents hasn’t led to a similar groundswell of anger or mobilization. Even if one disagrees with Israel’s policies in the Middle East and even if they believe Israel is evil incarnate, that can’t justify silence or indifference when Jews in America and elsewhere are targeted. Germany saw a 240 percent rise in antisemitic incidents the week after the Hamas attack compared to the same period a year earlier. Over the weekend, in perhaps the most terrifying incident, a frenzied crowd in the Russian republic of Dagestan stormed an airport tarmac searching for Jewish passengers arriving on a flight from Tel Aviv. In Tunisia, a mob set an historic synagogue ablaze 'after false reports that Israel had bombed a hospital in Gaza, killing hundreds'. In the U.K., anti-Jewish hate crimes were up thirteenfold over last year. Among American Jews, the silence is heard. It’s hard to do justice to the intense feelings of betrayal and abandonment that many American Jews feel right now. 'Jews expect such indifference from the right but not from the same progressive allies with whom they once stood in solidarity in promoting civil rights and protesting racial and ethnic violence'. Diaspora Jews have long been told that they need to be hyper-vigilant to antisemitism. “Do you have a bag packed?” was the question many Jews asked each other in case they needed to flee quickly. But in America, that question was far less likely to be posed. (Source: thedailybeast)
Note: Opinion by Cohen

1 Nov (2023)  US President Biden has been speaking about the opening of the Rafah border crossing. "We're working non-stop to get Americans out of Gaza as soon and as safely as possible," he says. American citizens were able to exit today, he said, as part of the first group of "probably more than 1,000", adding that the process will continue over "the coming days". The opening of the crossing is the result of "intense and urgent diplomacy" with partners in the region, including Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Egyptian President al-Sisi, Biden says. The president also thanks Qatar. (Source: bbc)

November 01, 2023  "I worked on the Gaza Strip back in the 1990s. The U.S. government was pouring tens of millions of tax dollars into development assistance there on engineering infrastructure, housing, and related projects. Part of reviewing that work on the ground involved tramping over much of the small territory on foot. Gaza consists of a strip of beach, back beach, and coastal plain that’s flat to slightly rolling. The territory stretches for about twenty-five miles along the eastern Mediterranean. At its widest, in the south, it’s about seven and a half miles wide; most of it is far narrower, about half of that. The Gaza tunnel system, mostly constructed over the last forty years, provides Hamas with offensive access to Israel. It also constitutes the terrorist organization’s most formidable defensive redoubt. The tunnels present by far the most difficult logistical problem for Israel in eliminating enemy targets. Open-source maps show at least eleven independent tunnel networks, some nearly adjacent to the sea. The number of independent networks, however, could far exceed that. Hamas claims that the total length of the tunnels is about three hundred miles". "The biggest problem confronting Israel in its war on Hamas is how to destroy the Gaza tunnel networks and the terrorist operations therein. Bombing works - mostly - but there’s a better way. Not only would it dramatically reduce Israeli military and Gazan civilian casualties, but it would effectively destroy the tunnel systems for the long term. That solution is to flood the tunnels with seawater from the adjacent Mediterranean. "Egypt flooded thirty-seven cross-border tunnels in southern Gaza back in 2015 in what stands as a practical proof of concept in this location. Seawater from the Mediterranean would be pumped directly into the tunnel openings through short pipelines. While there’s little hydrological head, there is also little topographical relief to deal with in laying the pipe. Large volumes of water are pumped long distances every day, and Israeli water technology is world class.' 'Rough calculations indicate that if a single pipe were used for each of eleven tunnels, with each pipe pumping at a very conservative 100 gallons per minute, it would take about seven and a half months for all eleven tunnel networks to fill'. The effect would begin as soon as water started to flow; by the time a tunnel has two or three feet of water it would be effectively unusable. (Source: realcleardefense)
Note: Opinion by Goodson, a retired U.S. Foreign Service officer, in 29 years with the U.S. Agency for International Development.

South America

Mexico
1 November 2023  Migrant caravan headed north as the group traveled through the southern state of Chiapas swells by a thousand people in 24 hours to 7,000 people as Chinese influencers are showing migrants how to cross US southern border. State authorities still estimated its size at around 3,500 participants. It comes as the U.S. is seeing a big increase in arriving using a relatively new and perilous route through Panama’s Darién Gap jungle, thanks in part to social media posts and videos providing step-by-step guidance. Chinese people were the fourth-highest nationality, after Venezuelans, Ecuadorians and Haitians, crossing the Darién Gap during the first nine months of this year, according to Panamanian immigration authorities. Chinese migrants using this route fly to Ecuador where they can fly into without a visa and then make their way north. Social media teaches Chinese citizens how to reach the American dream. Short video platforms and messaging apps have popularized the route across the gap and several Central American countries step by step - from China to the U.S., including tips on what to pack, where to find guides, how to survive the jungle, which hotels to stay at, how much to bribe police in different countries and what to do when encountering U.S. immigration officers. Translation apps allow migrants to navigate through Central America on their own, even if they don’t speak Spanish or English. 'Baozai,' an internet personality gained tens of thousands of followers on Douyin, Xigua Video, YouTube and Twitter by posting videos about his migration to the United States. The march is said to be the largest since June 2022. At the U.S.-Mexico border, the Border Patrol made 22,187 arrests of Chinese people for crossing the border illegally from Mexico from January through September, nearly 13 times the same period in 2022. (Source: dailymail)

Panama
November 1, 2023  The Panama Canal - an engineering marvel built by the United States, opened in 1914 and remained under its control until 2000 and which handles an estimated 5 percent of seaborne trade - has left by a drought without enough water, which is used to raise and lower ships, forcing officials to slash the number of vessels they allow through. Rainfall there has been 30 percent below average this year, causing water levels to plunge in the lakes that feed the canal and its mighty locks. The drought presents tough choices for Panama’s leaders, who must balance the water needs of the canal with those of residents, over half of whom rely on the same sources of water that feed the canal. The canal generates over 6 percent of Panama’s gross domestic product. The canal’s board recently proposed building a new reservoir in the Indio River to bolster the water supply and increase traffic through the canal. Building the reservoir is expected to cost nearly $900 million. Before the water problems, as many as 38 ships a day moved through the canal. The canal authority in July cut the average to 32 vessels, and later announced that the number would drop to 31 on Nov. 1. Further reductions could come if water levels remain lowSome shipping experts say vessels may soon have to avoid the canal altogether if the problem gets worse. The canal authority is also limiting how far a ship’s hull can go below the water, which significantly reduces the weight it can carry. Without a new water source, the canal could lose significant amounts of business. Other ocean routes are, of course, longer and more expensive, but they are less likely to have unpredictable delays. One alternative is to transport goods between Asia and United States through the Suez Canal to the East Coast and Gulf Coast. Another is to ship goods from Asia to the West Coast ports - and then transport them overland by train or truck. Two of the driest El Niño periods of the last 140 years had occurred in the last quarter-century, and the current one could be the third. Protracted disruptions at the canal could stoke interest in building land routes in Mexico, Colombia and other countries that have coastlines on both oceans. (Source: dnyuz)

United Nations

01.11.2023  US double standards in enforcing the UN Security Council Arms Embargo. Statements from the US Central Command and the US Department of Justice about the transfer of more than a million ammunition shells, allegedly intended for the Yemeni Houthis, to the armed forces of Ukraine on October 2, 2023 once again calls into question Washington’s commitment to implementing the sanctions regimes of the UN Security Council. In March 2023, the US Department of Justice announced in the District of Columbia the filing of a forfeiture action against more than a million 7.62x54 calibre rounds, 24,000 thousand 12.7x99 calibre rounds, about 7,000 proximity fuses for anti-tank grenades (AG) and 2,000 anti-tank grenades, seized in transit from Iran to Yemen. In July 2023, the US government received ownership of the specified ammunition. Reportedly, the supplier was Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the intended recipient was the Houthi militia groups in Yemen, which is considered by Washington to be a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2216, on the basis of which a targeted arms embargo was introduced against sanctioned Yemeni individuals. The Security Council calls on states, particularly those neighbouring Yemen, to inspect all cargo destined for the southern Arabian country if there are reasonable grounds to believe that the cargo contains prohibited items. However, such inspections are limited to the territory of the states themselves, including seaports and airports. Within the framework of the arms embargo established by the UN Security Council against Yemen, there is no special regime for inspecting ships in international waters. The resolution also contains a requirement to promptly submit to the “sanctions” Committee 2140 of the UN Security Council on Yemen (which also includes Russia and the United States) written reports outlining the details of inspection, seizure and disposal. According to information from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, no report on the interception of the Marwan 1 vessel was received by the specified subsidiary body of the UN Security Council. By decision of the UN Security Council, all states are authorized, in the event of the detection of prohibited goods, to seize them, in particular, by destroying them, rendering them unusable, placing them in a warehouse or transferring them to a state that is not the state of origin or destination, for the purpose of disposal. 'However, instead of implementing this fundamental provision of Resolution 2216, the United States perniciously violated it by transferring a large batch of ammunition to the Ukrainian armed forces'. Another violation of the UN Security Council sanctions regarding Yemen may occur if Washington decides to transfer to the Ukrainian military weapons and ammunition allegedly intercepted on their way to Yemen in 2021-2023. These included: 9,000 automatic rifles, 284 machine guns, approximately 194 grenade launchers, more than 70 anti-tank guided missiles and more than 700,000 cartridges. In July 2023, the US Department of Justice announced it was filing a forfeiture complaint. Thus, according to information from the US Department of Justice, on December 20, 2021, about 15,000 Type 56-1 assault rifles (Chinese replicas of the AKS-47) and 220,000 7.62x54 calibre cartridges were seized on the Al-Ghazal ship. On May 6, 2021, 2,500 Type 56-1 assault rifles, 35 AKS-74U assault rifles, 194 Iranian-made RPG-7 missile launchers, 19 Chinese-made Type 80 machine guns, 164 Iranian-made RKM machine guns, 100 Chinese-made 85 sniper rifles, 52 Iranian-made AM-50 anti-tank rifles and 50 anti-tank guided missiles were intercepted. On January 6, 2023, about 2,000 Type 56-1 and 200 AKS-20U assault rifles were seized. On January 15, 2023, US Central Command forces together with the French military intercepted 3,000 Type 56-1 assault rifles, 1,100 AKS20Us, 101 PKM model machine guns, mostly made in China, 23 Iranian-made Dehlaviya ATGMs and about 600,000 7.62x54 calibre rounds. It is obvious that in the current conditions, the United States will put pressure on the relevant UN structures so that only the American interpretation of the sanctions regime against Yemen is taken into account, which categorically excludes Washington’s responsibility for the demonstrative neglect of extremely important provisions on the need to report to the “sanctions” Committee of the UN Security Council on intercepted weapons and ammunition and their disposal. Thus, the final report of the Group of Experts of the UN Security Council 2140 Committee monitoring the implementation of the sanctions regime against Yemen was to be submitted to the Security Council no later than October 15, 2023. 'It can be expected that due to US neglect of the arms embargo, which has resulted in arms and ammunition being transferred to the Ukrainian armed forces and possibly ending up in the Middle East, the Yemeni UNSC sanctions regime (which expires on November 15, 2023), as well as the mandate of the Group of Experts (ends on December 15, 2023) will not be extended'. 'This year, the Americans and their satellites have already created a precedent when, due to their lack of willingness to compromise in the UN Security Council, the sanctions regime and the mandate of the Group of Experts regarding Mali were not extended'. (Source: valdaiclub)

1 November 2023  Mokhiber, the director of the New York Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, announced his resignation in a letter shared publicly yesterday. As director he occasionally faced criticism from pro-Israeli groups for his social media comments. 'Once again, we are seeing a genocide unfolding before our eyes, and the organization we serve appears powerless to stop it,' he wrote in an October 28 letter to Turk, the UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights. "The European, ethno-nationalist, settler colonial project in Palestine has entered its final phase, toward the expedited destruction of the last remnants of indigenous Palestinian life in Palestine.' He mentioned that the United Nations had not been successful in preventing past genocides targeting the Tutsis in Rwanda, Muslims in Bosnia, the Yazidis in Iraq, and the Rohingya in Myanmar. US, UK and much of Europe were not only 'refusing to meet their treaty obligations' under the Geneva Conventions but has been ‘wholly complicit in the horrific assault’ by Israelis on Gaza, arming Israel's assault and providing political and diplomatic cover for it, it added. He outlined a 10-point plan to end the violence against Palestinians, including establishing "a single, democratic, secular state… with equal rights for Christians, Muslims, and Jews" as well as destroying Israel's arsenal of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. Mokhiber has been with the United Nations since 1992, served as a senior human rights adviser in Palestine, Afghanistan, and Sudan. A lawyer with expertise in international human rights law, he resided in Gaza during the 1990s. (Source: trtworld)

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Africa

Egypt
11/01/2023  The Rafah crossing to Egypt was opened up for the first time since the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel. Under a deal between Egypt, Israel and Hamas that was mediated by Qatar in coordination with the United States, hundreds of evacuees - some critically injured and people with foreign passports - have left Gaza for Egypt at the Rafah border crossing. Earlier in the day, a first group of injured Palestinians were transported into Egypt and taken to a nearby hospital for treatment with Egypt's Health Ministry putting the number at 16. Other Egyptian officials told that 76 injured people had left Gaza through the border crossing. The Egyptian border authority in Rafah said 81 seriously injured people were due to enter Egypt today. There were up to 65 ambulances equipped with full resuscitation and life support capabilities. The el-Arish hospital, in the nearby Egyptian city of el-Arish, is set to receive many of those injured. By early evening today, over 300 foreign nationals and people with dual citizenship crossed into Egypt. US President Biden said in a post on X that US citizens would be among those leaving Gaza today. Among the group were also four Italian nationals, five French nationals. German aid workers were among those who left, Foreign Ministry says. At least 500 foreign passport holders are expected to cross into Egypt today, Egyptian authorities said. (Source: dw) 

Asia

Gaza
1 Nov (2023)  Just 13 hospitals left in the Palestinian enclave remain operational, out of 35 that existed before the conflict erupted on 7 October. The rest have either been damaged by strikes or forced to close due to a lack of supplies. Hospitals are operating with less than one-third of their normal staffing levels, according to the Hamas-run Ministry of Health in Gaza. 16 healthcare workers are estimated to have been killed while on duty and another 30 injured. Yesterday, one out of Gaza's three water supply lines from Israel was restored for the first time since being cut off last month - though the amount being received has yet to be assessed. Gaza remains under a full electricity blackout, using backup generators to get by, after Israel halted both electricity and fuel on 11 October in a bid to cut off Hamas's supplies. Humanitarian aid entering Gaza since 21 October, via the Rafah crossing with Egypt has not been allowed to include fuel for this reason. In total, 217 trucks have entered the enclave so far. Some 59 trucks carrying water, food and medicines entered Gaza yesterday - making it the largest convoy of aid to be delivered so far. Just one bakery run by the World Food Programme (WFP) and eight local Gazan ones remain operational, supplying bread to Palestinians. Hours-long queues are reported in front of them as a result, where the UN says people are exposed to airstrikes. (Source: bbc)

1 Nov (2023)  BBC World Service is launching an emergency radio service for Gaza broadcast on MW 639kHz. The emergency service called Gaza Daily will broadcast daily news to the people of Gaza, and also provide listeners with safety advice on where to access shelter, food and water supplies. Produced in Cairo and London, the service will initially run one programme a day at 1500 GMT (1700 Gaza time) from Friday 3 November. A second daily update will be broadcast at 0500 GMT (0700 Gaza time) from Friday 10 November. (Source: bbc)

1 Nov 2023  Telecom provider Paltel reported a “complete disruption” of communications and internet services in Gaza today morning. It becomes increasingly difficult to understand the situation in Gaza City and the northern part as Israeli tanks move to separate the north from the south. Israel has cut Gaza’s telecommunication and internet services for a second time despite humanitarian aid agencies warning that such blackouts severely disrupt their work in an already dire situation in the war-torn Palestinian enclave. In a statement, the Palestinian Ministry of Communications appealed to neighbouring Egypt to operate communication stations near the Gaza border and activate roaming service on Egyptian networks. Gaza’s G2 mobile network 'crushed further' by fuel shortages and damage to infrastructure. On Saturday, September 28, Musk said he would offer his Starlink satellite internet service to “internationally recognised aid organisations” in Gaza, prompting protests by Israel. 'Hamas will use it for terrorist activities,” Israel’s Communications Minister Karhi said on X, referring to the group that rules Gaza. On Monday, September 30, US Ambassador to the United Nations Thomas-Greenfield told the Security Council that the United States made clear to Israel that it was concerned about a shutdown of communications in the Gaza Strip, which "imperils the lives of civilians, UN personnel and humanitarian workers and risks exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza”. (Source: aljazeera)

01/11/2023  'Pallywood': a mix of the words ‘Palestine’ and ‘Hollywood’ and is used as a derogatory term by people who believe Palestinians are using crisis actors and victimising themselves. Pro-Israeli accounts are accusing Palestinians of using crisis actors to fake their suffering in order to elicit online sympathy. One viral video was shared on X by Naftali, a former member of Israeli PM’s communications and social media team. On the left, the clip presented as filmed "today" showing a man walking through rubble, and on the other side is another video claimed to have been filmed "yesterday", where a man with a similar appearance is in the hospital with an amputated leg. The clips don't show the same person. The Cube found the original video of the man walking through rubble was published on the 26th of October 2023. The man in the viral clip is Aljafarawim who posts numerous videos of the conflict in the Gaza Strip. Looking through his Instagram account, no images of him in a hospital. Videos of the man in a hospital bed show he is in an Israeli hospital, identifiable by the country's flags in the background, according to Alt News, an Indian fact-checking website. The 16-year-old teenager called Zendiq, holder of an Israeli identity card lost his leg on 24 July 2023, “during the invasion of the Nour Shams refugee camp, near Tulkarem, by Israeli occupation forces”, “rushed to an Israeli hospital where his right leg was amputated just above the knee,” the English-speaking pro-Palestinian site Palsolidarity published. He was treated in the hospital for a month and was released on 21 August 2023. (Source: euronews)

November 01, 2023  An IDF statement claimed Israeli airstrikes on the densely-populated Jabaliya refugee camp on the outskirts of Gaza City killed Biari, Commander of Hamas' Central Jabaliya Battalion and a large number of terrorists yesterday. "He was very important, I would say even pivotal in the planning and the execution of the October 7 attack against Israel from the northeastern parts of the Gaza Strip," IDF spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Conricus said. He added that dozens of Hamas combatants were in the same underground tunnel complex as Biari and were also killed when it collapsed in the attack. Hamas also released a statement denying reports of Biari's killing, stating the claim was just an Israeli pretext for killing civilians. The operation also involved ground forces taking control of a compound that the IDF said was used by Hamas’s Central Jabaliya Battalion. The IDF refuted the claims of Hamas that the killed were civilians, stating it called the residents of the area "to move south for their safety" before the raids. "The strike damaged Hamas’s command and control in the area, as well as its ability to direct military activity against IDF soldiers operating throughout the Gaza Strip," the army said in a statement. Footage showed huge craters where buildings once stood. Rescue workers and bystanders were also seen digging through the wreckage, searching for survivors. The IDF later claimed two soldiers were also dead in the operations. (Source: theweek *)
* India

Iran
11/01/2023  Supreme leader Khamenei made a call for Muslim states to halt oil and food exports to Israel, amid the bombardment of Gaza. Iran has backed Islamist groups opposing Israel for years but has denied direct involvement in the Hamas terror attacks launched on southern Israel on October 7. (Source: dw) 

Israel
1 Nov (2023)  The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Hagari said joint action of their ground, sea and air forces had seen troops "break through the forward Hamas perimeter the northern Gaza Strip". He also said that, guided by "precise intelligence from the Intelligence Branch and the ISA", the IDF had used fighter jets to "eliminate" Atzar, a Hamas anti-tank commander. In a separate briefing, Israel's Brig Gen Cohen said the IDF's forces were now "deep" into the Gaza Strip - "at the gates of Gaza City", he added. (Source: bbc)

11/01/2023  The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it dispatched navy missile boats to the Red Sea today after Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen claimed they launched attacks on Israel. A video on the social media platform Telegram appearing to show missile boats patrolling near the southern Israeli port city of Eilat. The IDF said it had intercepted an "aerial threat" over the Red Sea yesterday night. Attacks launched at Israel over the Red Sea area have not hit Israeli territory or entered its airspace, either being shot down or falling short. (Source: dw)

Nov. 1, 2023  Eleven Israeli soldiers killed since expanded ground operations in Gaza: IDF. The IDF first announced that two soldiers were killed in northern Gaza Tuesday, October 31. The ages of the 11 fallen soldiers ranged between 19 and 24, Israeli officials said. Since the Hamas attack in Israel that sparked the war, more than 300 Israeli soldiers have been killed. The Hamas-backed Gaza Health Ministry claims more than 8,000 Palestinians have been killed since the conflict erupted last month. (Source: nypost)

Jordan
11/01/2023  Jordan announced it has recalled its ambassador to Israel with immediate effect in protest over the war and the "humanitarian catastrophe" in Gaza. Foreign Minister al-Safadi said in a statement that he also told Israel's ambassador to Jordan not to return to the kingdom. The Israeli ambassador had previously left Jordan two weeks ago amid protests. Jordan signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994. It was the second Arab country after Egypt to establish diplomatic ties with Israel. Yesterday, US President Biden and Jordan's King Abdullah II spoke on the phone about the war between Israel and the Islamist Hamas militant group, which rules Gaza. According to a statement from the White House, the two leaders had discussed "urgent mechanisms to stem violence, calm rhetoric and reduce regional tensions." (Source: dw)

Palestine
Nov. 1, 2023  The Palestinian Authority, which was founded as a proto-state administration as a result of the 1993 Oslo peace accords, manifests itself mainly as a sprawling bureaucracy across the West Bank, where it has limited powers. In Gaza it has none, after the violent ouster there of its ruling party, Fatah, in 2007 by Hamas, its top rival. As yet, there does not seem to be any movement to drive out Fatah and the Palestinian Authority from the West Bank as well, which would create a dangerous power vacuum. But disenchantment with the authority - its weakness, inefficiency and corruption scandals - has been brewing for years. And the idea that Fatah and the authority could reestablish control in Gaza if Israel succeeds in its goal of extirpating Hamas seems ludicrous to many Palestinians, who consider Abbas, the authority’s octogenarian president, as moribund as the administration he heads. Although Palestinian Authority presidents serve a four-year term, Abbas was voted into office in 2005 and has not held an election since. Israel remains in de facto control of the West Bank and coordinates with the Palestinian Authority’s security apparatus to stop Palestinian militant attacks, either through the authority’s security personnel or through its own operations - a deeply unpopular policy that critics say reduces the authority to little more than Israel’s guard dog. A common view is that the local security forces are too cozy with their Israeli counterparts. Since Oct. 7, the Israeli government has stepped up what it calls counterterrorism operations across the occupied West Bank alongside its relentless offensive in Gaza. Israel’s military was giving settlers free rein and mounting a security dragnet that has killed scores of Palestinians in the West Bank. On Oct. 22, a pair of missiles lanced through the roof of Al Ansar Mosque, blowing up the main hall, shredding two Jenin Brigade fighters and nearly killing a third, witnesses said. The Jenin Brigade group was formed in 2021 with funding from Iranian-backed Islamic Jihad and brings together different armed factions in joint pursuit of the refugee camp’s defense. Members of the Jenin Brigade expect no mercy from the Israelis, nor any help from the official Palestinian leadership. Although the Jenin refugee camp has long been in Israel’s crosshairs, the military’s recent raids display a different level of ferocity, residents say. In the last week, restive Jenin, long a militant hotbed, has become the site of near-daily raids involving scores of Israeli soldiers, dozens of armored vehicles and even airstrikes that have killed at least a dozen people, according to Palestinian health officials. Israel says the incursions target terrorists who have attacked Israelis in the past or are planning to do so. The Jenin refugee camp, a decrepit neighborhood is running up a steep hill, whose 14,000 residents are refugees and their descendants from the 1948 “Nakba” - “catastrophe” in Arabic - referring to the mass displacement of Arabs that accompanied Israel’s independence. The camp is one of the poorest neighborhoods in the West Bank. It is steeped in the culture of resistance against Israel’s occupation. At night, residents place metal hedgehogs at the camp’s entrances to stymie armored vehicles, while keeping a close eye on anyone coming in, for fear of Israeli undercover agents. The authority’s security coordination with Israel they viewed nowadays as nothing less than treason. Almost no building is free of a martyr poster, and the cemeteries overflow with those killed in clashes with Israeli troops. Since July, a fourth graveyard has had to be opened. As Israel pursues its punishing ground offensive in Gaza and the casualties mount, the Palestinian Authority’s impotence only comes into sharper relief. On Monday, October 30, Israel deployed drones, snipers and dozens of armored vehicles, including two bulldozers that tore up streets and infrastructure near the camp, leveled the iconic arched gate over its entrance and destroyed a sculpture commemorating the 2002 Israeli incursion. Four men were killed and nine other people were wounded, Palestinian health authorities said. Late on October 31, Israeli special forces teams surged into Jenin, broke into the house of a top Fatah leader in the city and beat him and his son before taking them into custody, residents said. That was followed by yet another incursion involving bulldozers, drones, snipers, dozens of troops and airstrikes. They withdrew several hours later, leaving three Palestinians dead and a trail of bullet-scarred walls, ripped-up asphalt and destroyed cars. The weeks since Hamas's unprecedented assault on Oct. 7 have seen Israel intensify its crackdown on the occupied West Bank, with dozens of Palestinians killed and hundreds - Palestinian rights groups say more than a thousand - arrested. The United Nations says that more than 120 Palestinians, including 33 children, have been killed by Israeli security forces or settlers in the West Bank. Whereas homes in the West Bank city of Jenin have been demolished by Israeli troops, roads have been churned up by Israeli bulldozers and storefronts have been disfigured by Israeli gunfire, the offices of the Sultah, or Palestinian Authority, were attacked by Palestinians themselves during a noisy protest over Israel’s bombardment of Gaza. Disgusted with the authority’s inability to protect its own people or stand up to Israel, militants in the crowd aimed their bullets at the government compound after its security forces tried to break up the demonstration. Although much of their fury is directed at Israel, many in Jenin accuse the Palestinian Authority of abandoning them, saying its leaders are more concerned with their own survival and its security forces with pursuing Palestinian armed groups at Israel’s behest than they are with protecting Palestinian lives. (Source: latimes)

Qatar
1 November 2023  Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian met with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Al Thani, where he conveyed a verbal message from Iranian President Raisi on several regional and international issues, especially the developments in the Palestinian territories. He also met with Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Al Thani. The Qatari FM said he discussed with Amir-Abdollahian the escalations in Gaza and the West Bank and advancing ceasefire efforts. He wrote in a post on the "X" platform: "We stressed intensifying efforts to prevent expanding conflict that will result in serious consequences for everyone." Before leaving Doha for Ankara, Amir-Abdollahian met with the head of the Hamas politburo, Haniyeh, for the second time this month. "It was necessary to use the latest political opportunities to stop the war, and if the situation goes out of control, no party will be safe from its consequences," the top official said, according to Iranian media. He said the US was part of the war in Gaza, adding that Washington is in no position to ask others for restraint. (Source: aawsat *)
*Asharq Al Awsat, London

Turkey
November 1, 2023  Turkey was the first majority Muslim country to recognize Israel in 1949. It is also among the first to recognize the declaration of the State of Palestine. Unlike Turkey’s Western allies, Ankara does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization. In 2018, President Erdoğan described it as part of the Palestinian resistance defending “the Palestinian homeland against an occupying power.” Safeguarding the rights of Palestine and Palestinians is for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) part of its quest to defend the interests of Muslims worldwide. The party elites and its core constituency believe that the liberation of Muslims (from Western cultural and political domination) started in Turkey (thanks to Erdoğan) and can spread elsewhere. Erdoğan has promoted this rhetoric. In 2020, after converting the Hagia Sophia into a mosque, he described it as the 'harbinger of the al-Aqsa Mosque’s liberation.' It has been one of the central pillars of the AKP’s foreign policy to push for Turkey to be a peacemaker in the periphery of the international system. The Arab uprisings in 2011 were a turning point for the AKP’s leadership ambitions. Muslim Brotherhood–affiliated parties were winning elections throughout the region. Erdoğan has sought to position himself - and the Turkish government - as the leader of the Muslim world by supporting Sunni Islamists throughout the Middle East. Turkey has granted safe haven to many Islamist exiles and has generously supported their organizations operating in the country. During the failed coup attempt in 2016 or the controversial constitutional referendum in 2017, the AKP in turn welcomed support from Sunni Islamists for Erdoğan. Turkey was often seen as an equalizing force to the Arab autocrats of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, which see political Islam as a threat to their survival. Ankara’s increasingly confrontational foreign policy and expanding military footprint since 2016 have contributed to this view. Trapped in the mismatch between its stated ambitions and actual capabilities, Ankara became increasingly isolated. Since 2020, Turkey has been on a charm offensive to break nearly a decade of regional isolation. Ankara was more cautious and distanced itself from Arab Islamists to help repair its relations with regional actors, including Israel. After a decade of frosty relations, diplomatic ties with Israel were restored in 2022. Stuck between hegemonic aspirations and rapprochement efforts to break its isolation and repair its economy, Ankara lacks influence on either Israel or Hamas. In the hours after the attack, Ankara condemned the loss of civilian lives, and called on both sides for restraint. Since then, it has increasingly taken a critical stance toward Israel’s policy on Gaza. 'Ankara’s relationship with Hamas also appears to be of little value' - Qatar appears to be the decisive actor in hostage negotiations. To reinsert Ankara into a fragile regional order, Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan proposed on Oct. 17, in an interview at the pro-government daily Sabah, a “guarantor formula.” In line with the framework of a two-state solution within the 1967 borders and with a capital in Jerusalem, this formula would foresee a country from within the region, including Turkey acting as a guarantor for the future Palestinian state. Fidan also noted that “other countries could play the same role for Israel” and mentioned the importance of a “potential unified position between China and Russia, as U.N. Security Council members” in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Russia and China recently voiced support for a two-state solution, which the international community has until recently considered unrealistic. Turkey’s ruling elites believe that the West lacks strategic thinking and has increasingly become estranged from the rest of the world in the face of various issues including relations with China, migration and terror, and the shift in economic gravity from the West to the East. For Ankara, the unequivocal and unconditional support that the Biden administration gives Israel confirms this belief. Pro-government journalists expect that the conflict would lead to an increasing isolation of Israel. Since the disputed attack at the al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City, there have been calls on the government to ally with countries in the Global South to stop the U.S.-Israeli alliance. Bahçeli, the leader of the AKP’s junior partner, the Nationalist Movement Party, said Turkey should intervene militarily if there is no ceasefire. Those critical of Ankara’s civilizationist aspirations yet share its aspirations for a foreign policy independent from the West call for booting U.S. military members at Incirlik Air Force Base and the Kürecik Radar Station in Malatya. Both Israeli and Palestinian societies are caught by the trauma of their interconnected histories and the violence of war. The myth of an invincible Israeli military and intelligence is broken. U.S. government efforts to recalibrate the regional order by facilitating Arab-Israeli normalization are disrupted, if not totally off the table in the near term. Arab states are worried about widening regional conflict and increasing public rage against Israel’s policy toward the occupied territories. Many in the so-called Global South are disillusioned by the unequivocal support the United States and the European Union give Israel. Given the prevalence of anti-immigration, xenophobic, and Islamophobic sentiments within the Western public, the violent conflict in Gaza might risk becoming a domestic issue in the United States and Europe. According to Erdoğan, the Biden administration’s decision to send aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean hindered Turkey’s efforts to deescalate the situation. The government’s belief is that the conflict will bring the United States back to the region. The fear is that a stronger American presence will further disrupt Ankara’s efforts to prevent Kurdish autonomy under the leadership of the Democratic Union Party and the People’s Protection Units in northern Syria. 'After two decades of policy to expand Turkey’s role in the Middle East, Ankara is effectively a marginal actor.' "Its influence is limited to rhetorical outcries'. (Source: warontherocks)

Yemen
November 1, 2023  The Middle East nation lies at the southernmost point of the Arabian Peninsula. Its coastline is on the southern end of the Red Sea and represents a strategic choke point for world shipping and, crucially, Saudi oil. Yemen’s internationally recognised government is backed by the Saudi and US governments and has been in a civil war with the Houthis since 2014. Yemen’s Houthi movement, not Yemen itself, has effectively declared war against Israel. Yemen-based militants which control Yemen’s west, join the Israel-Hamas war, firing missiles on Israel, extending the conflict to the far side of the Middle East. While not the officially recognised government of Yemen, the Houthi movement controls a significant portion of the country. The Houthis are backed by Iran and are part of its 'Axis of Resistance', an informal military coalition centred on anti-Western and anti-Israel intent. Other participants include Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah; Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups; the Syrian government; militant groups in Iraq. The Houthi group is rooted in Zaydism, a sect of Shiite Islam that accounts for about 25 per cent of Yemen’s population; the rest of the country is predominately Sunni. The Houthi movement, also known as Ansar Allah (Supporters of God), developed in the 1990s out of dissatisfaction with Yemeni government alignment with Saudi Arabia and the US. It has positioned itself as an anti-imperialist group against foreign intervention and as a force for economic development for Yemeni people. The Houthi movement says it launched ballistic and cruise missiles on southern Israel today. The Israel Defence Forces said it intercepted at least one missile originating from near the Red Sea, along with other “aerial threats”. Houthi military spokesperson Saree said it was behind two earlier incidents, a drone attack on October 18 and three cruise missiles intercepted by the US Navy on October 19. The few Houthi attacks were, for now, more about messaging than a real military threat. (Source: brisbanetimes)

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European Union
November 1, 2023  The EU has limited influence in managing a geopolitical crisis on its periphery, including due to its exhaustion from Russian aggression against Ukraine. It must choose to be omnipresent or intelligently select the priorities where it imposes its presence, based on a prudent cost-benefit analysis of the available resources and the objectives set. The EU can combine the management of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza with the ceasefire; consolidate support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression; accelerate the enlargement process with the aim of stabilising and securing its immediate neighbourhood in the Western Balkans and the Eastern Partnership - Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.   The Hamas terrorist operation took by surprise Israel's Western partners. The EU concluded that the situation in the region is rather part of the geopolitical mandate of American diplomacy. The United States wrongly assessed the capabilities of Israel's defence and security apparatus. One of the reasons for the lack of attention to this conflict, shown by the United States and the EU, is the mobilisation of resources (political attention and available material resources) to counter Russian aggression against Ukraine. Another reason can be considered Western concern to deter China's military measures against Taiwan, following the Russian scenario in relation to Ukraine, carried out in February 2022. In addition to the casualties reported by Israel and the Palestinian side, there are citizens of at least 37 countries who are held captive in Gaza or having died at the hands of Hamas. This aspect outlines the international nature of the crisis, as well as the multiple pro-Palestinian protests held in Western capitals, including Brussels. The EU's declared efforts to de-escalate the conflict will fail, as the dynamics of the crisis depend on the status quo of civilians in Gaza. To restore the humanitarian situation, the EU, together with the US, will have to condition its political-diplomatic support for Israel on a ceasefire. Otherwise, the EU risks losing its moral authority in the eyes of the Global South. The EU has moved closer to a division at the level of the member states on how the EU should handle in the case of the Middle East crisis. In some cases, public opinion tends to support the Palestinian cause, in others European societies contain large Muslim minorities (2023: France – 6.7mn, Germany – 5.5mn, etc.), who are sensitive to events in Gaza. The (in)actions of the governments of the EU states and Brussels can have consequences on public order in Europe today and, respectively, political-electoral effects in the near future. Some 800 European diplomats and officials criticised the lack of a balanced speech by the president of the Commission, who, by positioning herself in favour of Israel, damaged the credibility of European diplomacy. The visit of European Commission von de Leyen and the statements from Israel caused confusion in the offices of EU Council President Michel and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borell, who deal with EU foreign policy. In an episode of mandate overreach, Várhelyi, head of Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy, stated that humanitarian aid to Gaza would be immediately interrupted following the Hamas attacks on October 7. At the same time, the commissioner responsible for crisis management, Lenarčič, flatly contradicted Várhelyi and reiterated that humanitarian aid continues: €27.9mn were budgeted for 2023. The EU subsequently announced that it was tripling humanitarian aid to €75mn. There are more hidden dividing lines between member states. In the UN General Assembly vote, eight EU states (including France, Spain and the Netherlands) voted in favour of the ceasefire in Gaza, four opposed this resolution and 15 abstained. Despite the UN vote, Michel insisted that the European Council meeting on the same day would have demonstrated unity within the EU, when he advocated not for a ceasefire but for humanitarian “pauses'.  Realisation of the European perspectives for the Eastern Partnership states - Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia - deepening of European integration in these countries requires aiming the construction of functional states, which prevent political crises, socioeconomic declines, mass migrations and depopulation.   The fact that the attention of the United States is absorbed by the situation in the Middle East and that aid to Israel seems to have become a priority, generates some discomfort in Kyiv. The EU has previously reiterated that the effectiveness of its support will depend on the sustainability of US assistance. As of February 2022, the EU had allocated more than €82bn to support Ukraine, not counting the costs of supporting the more than 5mn Ukrainian refugees in EU states. There is already a lack of financial resources within the EU, which has requested to supplement the budget with some €66bn, but the proposal was met with objections from member states. Due to the decrease in financial resources, the EU is increasingly leaning towards the idea of transferring to Ukraine the benefits derived from Russian money (more than €200bn) frozen in the states of the EU through the post-2022 sanctions, for reconstruction needs. Ukrainian leaders demand the opening of accession negotiations with the EU. The European Commission's report on Ukraine, will be presented in early November. There are decisions that President Zelensky must make, and prior to that the Rada dominated by his party, Servant of the People, has had to restore anti-corruption tools. The opening of the negotiating chapters could be delayed throughout 2024, even if the European Council adopts a favourable decision at the end of December.   The shortcomings of the reforms that the Moldovan authorities must implement as part of the EU requirements are justified by the Moldovan side with hybrid threats of Russian origin or with anti-reform resistance within state institutions. In reality, discrepancies between the government's pro-European political ambitions and the quality of reforms are increasing. Moldova could lose the opportunity to start accession negotiations, only if the EU takes into account deficiencies in the field of justice or electoral legislation. Contrary to the recommendations of the Venice Commission and even the Constitutional Court of Moldova, the government restricted the right to be elected of several candidates in local elections. The bans were motivated by the ruling Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) representatives as a remedy to counter the attempts of the 'criminal group' led by Şor (sanctioned by the EU, US, etc.) to influence the results of the local elections on November 5. PAS maintains close political contacts with political factors in Brussels.   In Georgia there are valid doubts about meeting the EU requirements to obtain candidate country status. The failed attempt to remove President Zurabishvili for promoting the European perspective, with some procedural deviations from constitutional prerogatives, denotes a crisis in the political process of European integration. However, the decision on Georgia's candidate country status does not depend on its degree of readiness, but on the EU's geopolitical calculations on the performance of the Russian factor in the region. (Source: intellinews)

Russia
11/01/2023  Late on Sunday, October 29, hundreds of protesters stormed the Makhachkala airport in Russia's Muslim-majority Dagestan, seeking to attack Jewish passengers arriving from Israel. Several police officers were injured during the chaotic scenes, and more than 80 were initially detained. Russian media reported today that 15 anti-Israeli rioters who stormed the airport have been sentenced - some to eight days of administrative arrest while others received sentences of 60 hours of community service. (Source: dw)

1 Nov 2023  In September 2022, Putin signed a decree that gives Russian nationality to anyone who has served on the front line for six months. Muslims are Russia’s fastest-growing population stratum. Dire demographic problems and oil wealth turned Russia into a magnet for millions of labour migrants from ex-Soviet Central Asia. Some Crimean Tatars, a Muslim community of about 200,000 in the annexed peninsula, became part of this influx as they share ties with Turkic-speaking nations of Central Asia, a region their forefathers had been deported to en masse in 1944. Public opinion is dominated by rampant nationalism, xenophobia and often portrays Muslim newcomers as hostile and alien. Muslim labour migrants have faced hate attacks, arbitrary detentions and arrests, police brutality, extortion and threats for decades. The immigrants are accustomed to authoritarian rule and police brutality in their countries of origin, often know little about their civil rights in Russia, do not have access to lawyers, and may not speak much Russian. Very few make their cases public, fearing persecution of their families. Russia’s mostly Muslim, impoverished and corruption-choked North Caucasus is one of the few regions with high birth rates, and hundreds of thousands also move to Moscow and other big cities. Moscow only has five official mosques, and tens of thousands of believers throng areas around them during Muslim holidays. Most labour migrants choose to attend informal “prayer houses”, which some locals and police see as hotbeds of “extremism”. During their raids on prayer houses Russian police finds “problems” – both imaginary and real, such as a lack of registration, a blurred stamp, or an expired work permit. The labour migrants are locked up and forced to enlist in military service, facing several kinds of threats to ensure their cooperation. Russian far-right nationalists help organise raids on “prayer houses”. Zov (Call), a group whose closed Telegram channel has 141,000 subscribers, routinely informs police about Muslim gatherings. As part of a nationwide series of raids dubbed “Illegal 2023”, police have been combing construction sites, markets, farms, restaurants, apartment buildings, hostels and “prayer houses” – or simply rounding up anyone who does not look Slavic. The Illegal 2023 investigations are “tied to organisation of illegal migration, trade in drugs and psychotropic substances, arms trade and border crossings”, Ministry of Internal Affairs spokeswoman Vovk said. 'Since at least May 2023, Russia has approached Central Asian migrants to fight in Ukraine with promises of fast-track citizenship and salaries of up to $4,160,' the British Defence Ministry said in September. A red Russian passport eliminates many of the problems with police and bureaucratic hurdles that migrants face. An Uzbek man whose wife and child are Russian nationals, was told that without a military contract and participation in the special military operation, they won’t even accept his citizenship application. Even if a labour migrant already has a Russian passport, recently adopted laws allow authorities to take it away with ease. “If you are a Russian national but are not ready to fulfil your military duty, a decision should be made to strip such a man of his citizenship,” Russia’s top investigator Bastrykin told a military conference in mid-October. Bastrykin said earlier that migrants have a “constitutional duty to defend the nation that accepted them” and that enlisting them should be a “priority”. Police in St Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city said they handed conscription papers to 56 labour migrants with Russian passports after just one raid on a market on September 6. A month earlier, about 100 labour migrants were served with conscription papers, it said. There have even been calls to abolish age limits for migrants so that they can be forced to serve in the military. The conscription age in Russia is between 18 and 30. “You became a Russian national at age 50 – go serve at 50,” lawmaker Zhuravlyev said on October 24. The Russian military faces a shortage of manpower on the front lines, exacerbated by Russia’s low birthrates and a population loss of hundreds of thousands of people a year in the rapidly aging nation of 143 million. The September 2022 “partial” mobilisation triggered an exodus of hundreds of thousands of Russian men, making labour migrants more attractive targets. The Kremlin is afraid to declare a second round of mobilisation in advance of the March 2024 presidential election. The emphasis is on recruiting migrants, as their loss on the front line will not affect Russia politically or economically. So far, there has only been a single public incident associated with the forced conscription of migrants. Last October, two Tajik nationals were forcibly sent to a training camp before departure to Ukraine. Aminzoda and Rakhmonov, heard their commanding officers 'insult their religion', they got hold of a machine gun and killed 11 people and injured 15 others. The two were shot dead and pronounced “terrorists” by authorities. (Source: aljazeera)

November 1, 2023  As one of many sanctions measures put in place against Russia since it invaded Ukraine in February last year, the G7 group of richer nations brought in a price cap on crude oil last December followed by a similar measure for products in February this year. The cap was designed to try and deny buyers of Russian crude the use of Western-supplied services, including shipping and insurance, unless cargoes are sold at or below the capped price. Russia’s swift build-up of a so-called shadow fleet of tankers – estimated to number more than 600 ships – has circumvented these sanctions measures, has made the West’s oil price cap “unenforceable”, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook report. While Russia’s exports to the European Union, the US, Britain and other Western countries fell by 53% between 2021 and 2023, these have been largely replaced with increased exports to China, India and Turkey – up 40% over the same period, according to data carried in the report. “The price cap on Russian crude oil introduced in late 2022 appears increasingly unenforceable given the recent spike in Urals prices,” the World Bank said, referring to the benchmark Russian crude, currently quoted in the mid-$70s per barrel range, well above the G7-led $60 price cap for Russian crude. “It seems that by putting together a shadow fleet, Russia has been able to trade outside of the cap; the official Urals benchmark recently breached the cap for more than three months, averaging $80 per barrel in August,” the report noted. The rise of shadow or dark fleet has seen many vintage ships given an extra stay of execution. Tankers still working above 20 years of age made up just 1% of the global tanker fleet pre-covid and were still a rarity at 3% before the invasion of Ukraine in late February last year. They’re now on track to make up 11% of all tanker demand by mid-2025, according to data from brokers Braemar. (Source: splash247)

Ukraine
November 1, 2023  'Modern positional warfare and how to win it.' Having launched the large-scale armed aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the russian federation provoked the beginning of an unprecedented global security crisis. Russian great-power chauvinism multiplied by sick imperial ambitions gradually turns the military conflict it began in the centre of Europe into an armed confrontation between democratic and authoritarian political regimes with the prospect of its spread to other regions of the planet with similar geopolitical models (Israel and the Gaza Strip, South and North Koreas, Taiwan and China, etc.). The insufficient effectiveness of the existing global political regulatory mechanisms, primarily the UN and the OSCE, leaves ukraine no choice but to restore its territorial integrity after the large-scale armed aggression within the internationally recognized borders of 1991, exclusively by military force, in which its Armed Forces (AF) play a decisive role. Having entered the war with a stronger enemy, which has a lot of weapons and a much greater mobilization capabilities, ukraine was not only able to stop it, but also to conduct a successful counteroffensive in 2022 and stave the enemy off along many axes. The prolongation of a war, as a rule, in most cases, is beneficial to one of the parties to the conflict. "In our particular case, it is the russian federation, as it gives it the opportunity to reconstitute and build up its military power," Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, tells. An analysis of the current situation in which the Armed Forces of ukraine and other components of the state Defence Forces are placed shows that in order to find a way out of the positional form of warfare, it is necessary to: gain air superiority; breach mine barriers in depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery; create and train the necessary reserves; build up electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. Modern art of war involves gaining air superiority to successfully conduct large-scale ground operations. The Armed Forces of ukraine entered the war with 120 tactical aircraft, out of which only 40 were considered to be technically suitable for utilization, and 33 medium and short-range anti-aircraft missile battalions, of which only 18 had fully serviceable equipment, Zaluzhnyi informs. The next prerequisite that transforms the nature of current hostilities into a positional form is the widespread use of mine barriers by both the enemy and ukraine's troops. 'In the russian-ukrainian war, as in the wars of the past, the role of missile forces and artillery in fires remains quite significant, and depending on the conditions, axes and areas of operations varies from 60 to 80% of the total volume of tasks executed, he tells. Compared to ukraine, the russian federation has almost three times more mobilization human resources. The prolonged nature of the war, limited opportunities for the rotation of soldiers on the line of contact, gaps in legislation that seem to legally evade mobilization, significantly reduce the motivation of citizens to serve with the military, Zaluznhny notes. This leads to the lack of ukraine's ability to achieve superiority over the enemy in reserves by increasing their number. Even before the events of 2014, the military and political leadership of the russian federation paid considerable attention to the development of electronic warfare. An illustrative example of this is the creation in 2009 of a separate branch of the armed forces of the russian federation – the electronic warfare troops. In addition, as part of the russian armed forces, a powerful air component of electronic warfare has been created, which ensures the effective employment of troops (forces) and high-precision weapons. "Relying on the strategic superiority in military, economic, human, natural resource and scientific potential and relatively appropriate conditions for its implementation" - he writes - the occupying armed forces are still not able to fully implement the plans of the russian general staff. Countermeasure to the achievement of military-political objectives by the aggressor state comes at a high cost for ukraine and its Armed Forces. The Armed Forces of ukraine and other components of the Security and Defence Forces involved in repelling armed aggression, practically along the entire line of contact between the parties and in the border areas with the russian federation, faced the need to overcome the military parity problem. Its existence is stipulated by the reasons related to parity in the air, minefields, counter-battery and electronic warfare, and the creation of reserves. 'The need to avoid the transition to a positional form of hostilities, such as the "trench war" of 1914-1918, necessitates the search for new and non-trivial approaches to breaking the military parity with the enemy' Zaluzhnyi writes. Key takeaways: "The transition of the war to a positional form leads to its prolongation and carries significant risks for both the Armed Forces of ukraine and the state as a whole. "In addition, it is beneficial to the enemy, who is trying in every possible way to reconstitute and increase its military power. "To get out of the positional form at the current stage of warfare, first of all, it is necessary to: gain air superiority; breach mine barriers in depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery and electronic warfare; create and prepare the necessary reserves. "The widespread use of information technology in military affairs and the rational organization of logistics support play a significant role in finding a way out of the positional form of warfare. 'The need to avoid transitioning from a positional form to a manoeuvrable one necessitates searching for new and non-trivial approaches to break military parity with the enemy', Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, wrote. (Source: economist): https://tinyurl.com/4t8umym8

1 November 2023  Last week, the authorities ordered the forced evacuation of children from 31 towns and villages close to the frontline. The orders came after Russia renewed offensives in parts of the Donetsk region and fighting intensified in Kherson region. In addition to free transport to safety, Ukraine initially gives all forced evacuees money - around £45 per adult, £70 per child or vulnerable adult - and a place to live. The adults will be expected - eventually - to work. While millions of Ukrainians have fled the war abroad, the Ukrainian government estimates there are nearly five million internally displaced people in the country. Forced evacuees are taken in by communities all over Ukraine. (Source: bbc)

Ukraine
November 1, 2023 / October 30, 2023  At the end of last year, during his previous visit to Washington, Zelensky received a hero’s welcome. The White House sent a U.S. Air Force jet to pick him up in eastern Poland a few days before Christmas and, with an escort from a NATO spy plane and an F-15 Eagle fighter, deliver him to Joint Base Andrews outside the U.S. capital. That evening, Zelensky appeared before a joint session of Congress to declare that Ukraine had defeated Russia 'in the battle for minds of the world.' A few right-wing Republicans refused to stand or applaud for Zelensky, but the votes to support him were bipartisan and overwhelming throughout last year. This time around, the atmosphere had changed. In recent months, the issue of corruption has strained Zelensky’s relationship with many of his allies. Ahead of his new visit to Washington, the White House prepared a list of anti-corruption reforms for the Ukrainians to undertake. These proposals targeted the very top of the state hierarchy, one of the aides who traveled with Zelensky to the U.S. told. “These were not suggestions,” says another presidential adviser. “These were conditions.” In early September, Zelensky fired his Minister of Defense, Reznikov, a member of his inner circle who had come under scrutiny over corruption in his ministry. He had not been personally involved in graft, one presidential adviser says, pointing to the inflated prices the ministry paid for supplies, such as winter coats for soldiers and eggs to keep them fed. “But he failed to keep order within his ministry.” One of Zelensky’s foreign policy advisers urged him to call off the trip in late September, warning that the atmosphere was too fraught. Assistance to Ukraine had become a sticking point in the debate over the federal budget. Congressional leaders declined to let Zelensky deliver a public address on Capitol Hill. His aides tried to arrange an in-person appearance for him on Fox News and an interview with Winfrey. Neither one came through. Instead, on the morning of Sept. 21, Zelensky met in private with then House Speaker McCarthy before making his way to the Old Senate Chamber, where lawmakers grilled him behind closed doors. Most of Zelensky’s usual critics stayed silent in the session; Senator Cruz strolled in more than 20 minutes late. The Democrats, for their part, wanted to understand where the war was headed, and how badly Ukraine needed U.S. support. “They asked me straight up: If we don’t give you the aid, what happens?” Zelensky recalls. “What happens is we will lose.” At the National Archives in Washington it did not go as planned. Zelensky was running late. That afternoon, his meetings at the White House and the Pentagon delayed him by more than an hour. When he finally arrived to begin his speech at 6:41 p.m., he looked distant and agitated. His delivery felt stilted, as though he wanted to get it over with. After the speech, while handing out medals, he urged the organizer to hurry things along. He later said, the reason was the exhaustion he felt that night, not only from the demands of leadership during the war but also the persistent need to convince his allies that, with their help, Ukraine can win. “Nobody believes in our victory like I do. Nobody,” Zelensky told after his trip. Back to Kyiv. On first day a longtime member of his team tells that, most of all, Zelensky feels betrayed by his Western allies. They have left him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it. 'But his convictions haven’t changed'. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. 'He deludes himself,' one of his closest aides tells in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.” Zelensky’s stubbornness, some of his aides say, has hurt their team’s efforts to come up with a new strategy, a new message. As they have debated the future of the war, one issue has remained taboo: the possibility of negotiating a peace deal with the Russians. Zelensky remains dead set against even a temporary truce. But how they would react to the signals they had received, especially the insistent calls for Zelensky to fight corruption inside his own government? Some of the accusations have been hard to deny. Even the firing of the Defense Minister did not make officials 'feel any fear,' because the purge took too long to materialize. The President was warned in February that corruption had grown rife inside the ministry, but he dithered for more than six months, giving his allies multiple chances to deal with the problems quietly or explain them away. In August, a Ukrainian news outlet known for investigating graft, Bihus.info, published a damning report about Zelensky’s top adviser on economic and energy policy, Shurma, a former executive in the energy industry, who has a brother who co-owns two solar-energy companies with power plants in southern Ukraine. Even after the Russians occupied that part of the country, cutting it off from the Ukrainian power grid, the companies continued to receive state payments for producing electricity. The anticorruption police, an independent agency known in Ukraine as NABU, responded to the publication by opening an embezzlement probe into Shurma and his brother. But Zelensky did not suspend his adviser. Instead, in late September, Shurma joined the President’s delegation to Washington, where he was glad-handing senior lawmakers and officials from the Biden Administration. Ten days later, Congress passed a bill to temporarily avert a government shutdown. It included no assistance for Ukraine. 'People are stealing like there’s no tomorrow,” a top presidential adviser in early October said. Zelensky, asked about the problem, acknowledged its gravity and the threat it poses to Ukraine’s morale and its relationships with foreign partners. 'Fighting corruption is among his top priorities, he assured'. The President gave strict orders for his staff to avoid the slightest perception of self-enrichment. The typical salary in the President’s office comes to about $1,000 per month, or around $1,500 for more senior officials, far less than they could make in the private sector. “We sleep in rooms that are 2 by 3 meters,” about the size of a prison cell, says Yermak, the presidential chief of staff, referring to the bunker that Zelensky and a few of his confidants have called home since the start of the invasion. “We’re not out here living the high life,” he tells in his office. Zelensky also suggested that 'some foreign allies have an incentive to exaggerate the problem, because it gives them an excuse to cut off financial support'. 'It’s not right,' he says, 'for them to cover up their failure to help Ukraine by tossing out these accusations.' And the fading enthusiasm for a war with no end in sight? Public support for aid to Ukraine has been in decline for months in the U.S., and Zelensky’s visit did nothing to revive it. Some 41% of Americans want Congress to provide more weapons to Kyiv, down from 65% in June, when Ukraine began a major counteroffensive, according to a survey taken shortly after Zelensky’s departure. That offensive has proceeded at an excruciating pace and with enormous losses. Since the start of the invasion, Ukraine has refused to release official counts of dead and wounded. But according to U.S. and European estimates, the toll has long surpassed 100,000 on each side of the war. It has eroded the ranks of Ukraine’s armed forces so badly that draft offices have been forced to call up ever older personnel, raising the average age of a soldier in Ukraine to around 43 years. “They’re grown men now, and they aren’t that healthy to begin with,” says the close aide to Zelensky. 'This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia.” In some branches of the military, the shortage of personnel has become even more dire than the deficit in arms and ammunition. One of Zelensky’s close aides tells that even if the U.S. and its allies come through with all the weapons they have pledged, “we don’t have the men to use them.” On Aug. 11 Zelensky fired the heads of the draft offices in every region of the country. The reputation of the draft offices had been tainted. The move backfired as recruitment nearly ground to a halt without leadership. As conscription efforts have intensified around the country, stories are spreading on social media of draft officers pulling men off trains and buses and sending them to the front. Those with means sometimes bribe their way out of service, often by paying for a medical exemption. Twenty months into the war, about a fifth of Ukraine’s territory remains under Russian occupation. The cold of early fall had taken hold. Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure have damaged power stations and parts of the electricity grid, leaving it potentially unable to meet spikes in demand when the temperature drops. Blackouts would likely be more severe this winter, and the public reaction in Ukraine would not be as forgiving, senior officials in charge of dealing with this problem told. 'Last year people blamed the Russians,” one of them says. “This time they’ll blame us for not doing enough to prepare.” “Freezing the war, to me, means losing it,” Zelensky says. 'Before the winter sets in, his aides warned to expect major changes in their military strategy and a major shake-up in the President’s team'. At least one minister would need to be fired, along with a senior general in charge of the counteroffensive, they said, to ensure accountability for Ukraine’s slow progress at the front. Some front-line commanders have begun refusing orders to advance, even when they came directly from the office of the President, says one of Zelensky’s close aides. “They just want to sit in the trenches and hold the line,” he says. 'But we can’t win a war that way." Some commanders have little choice in second-guessing orders from the top, a senior military officer said. At one point in early October, he said, the political leadership in Kyiv demanded an operation to 'retake' the city of Horlivka, a strategic outpost in eastern Ukraine that the Russians have held and fiercely defended for nearly a decade. The answer came back in the form of a question: With what? “They don’t have the men or the weapons,” says the officer. “Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the new recruits?” Zelensky can feel during his travels that global interest in the war has slackened. So has the level of international support. 'The scariest thing is that part of the world got used to the war in Ukraine,' he says. “Exhaustion with the war rolls along like a wave. You see it in the United States, in Europe. And we see that as soon as they start to get a little tired, it becomes like a show to them: ‘I can’t watch this rerun for the 10th time.’' With the outbreak of war in Israel, even keeping the world’s attention on Ukraine has become a major challenge. Palestinian terrorists had massacred many hundreds of civilians in southern Israel, prompting the Israeli government to impose a blockade of the Gaza Strip and declare war against Hamas. The focus of Ukraine’s allies in the U.S. and Europe, and of the global media, quickly shifted to the Gaza Strip. 'Zelensky wanted to help'. He asked the Israeli government for permission to visit their country in a show of solidarity. The answer appeared the following week in Israeli media reports: “The time is not right.” A few days later, President Biden instead of asking Congress to vote on another stand-alone package of Ukraine aid, bundled it with other priorities, including support for Israel and U.S.-Mexico border security. The package would cost $105 billion, with $61 billion of it for Ukraine. But it was also an acknowledgment that, on its own, Ukraine aid no longer stands much of a chance in Washington. (Source: time)

November 1, 2023  A Russian drone attack set ablaze the Kremenchuk oil refinery in central Ukraine Poltava region and knocked out power supply in three villages, while falling debris from downed drones damaged railway power lines in the nearby central Kirovohrad region. The fire at the refinery, which Moscow has targeted many times during the war and Kyiv says is not operational, was quickly put out, said Pronin, head of Poltava region's military administration. The extent of the damage was not clear. Ukraine's Air Force said air defences shot down 18 of 20 drones and a missile fired by Russia overnight before they reached their targets in an attack that sought to strike military and critical infrastructure. The Ukrainian military said Russia carried out another missile attack on Poltava region and southern Odesa region later today morning, with two missiles downed in the latter. (Source: reuters)

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Europe

European Union
(31 October 2023) / 18/08/2023  Common security and defence policy: Missions and operations. Annual Report 2022.    Contents:     Foreword.     Part 1 - 2022 in focus: Europe’s security under threat ...  EU Security and Defence engagement around the world.     PART 2 - Achievements of CSDP Missions and Operations  ...  The Eastern neighbourhood  ...  The Western Balkans  ...  The Mediterranean  ...  The Middle East  ...  The Sahel  ...  The Horn of Africa  ...  Central and Southern Africa.  (Source: eeas *): https://tinyurl.com/29kw22yu
* European External Action Service 

Kosovo
Tue, Oct 31 2023  The Western Balkans, a group of six countries that European Union officials have repeatedly said belong to the European family, comprises Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. Not yet members of the 27-nation bloc, the region of roughly 18 million in Southern and Eastern Europe is known as an arena of geostrategic rivalry, with Brussels, Moscow and Washington among those jockeying for influence. NATO has had a peacekeeping mission in Kosovo since 1999 following a bloody conflict between ethnic Albanians opposed to ethnic Serbs and the government of Yugoslavia in 1998. As conflict rages between Israel and Hamas and Russia and Ukraine, the focus of Western powers has been diverted from a different geopolitical issue: Serbia-Kosovo tensions - a powder keg, a security issue for both the Balkans and Europe. A deadly shootout in late September between a heavily armed group of ethnic Serbs and Kosovo special police forces in the northern Kosovan village of Banjska appeared to mark another pivotal juncture. U.S. and European officials expressed deep concern over the violence and 'unprecedented' buildup of military forces there, as the White House described it. The military alliance reacted to the September incident by deploying additional peacekeeping troops to the region, while Serbia bolstered its military presence along its border with Kosovo. Serbian President Vučić has previously said that Serbian forces had no intention of going to war with Kosovo, noting that this would be counterproductive to the country’s ambitions of joining the EU. The Serbia-Kosovo discord finds itself languishing in the shadow of more immediate and globally resonant challenges. "When a new conflict erupts on the global stage, it inherently strains a nation’s capacity to effectively manage preexisting conflicts,” Hartwell, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told. In the Balkan region even minor incidents can swiftly spiral into broader conflicts - what happens in the Balkans, doesn’t stay in the Balkans, he said. Essentially, the diplomatic and military bandwidth only goes so far, and states are compelled to make calculated choices about where to direct their efforts. “The U.S., EU and U.K. do not have the diplomatic and military bandwidth to respond to several conflicts of strategic interest. Choices will have to be made in terms of where we can commit our resources, and that will ultimately have negative consequences for some regions,” he added. “However, when we neglect this responsibility, or mismanage it as is currently the case, we inadvertently create an opening for other players to fill the vacuum,” CEPA’s Hartwell said. (Source: cnbc)

Russia
10/31/23  Few Russian or Western analysts believe a mysterious Russian Telegram channel called General SVR and Solovey (who some say are one and the same person). Hundreds of thousands of Russians have read General SVR’s and Solovey’s claims. Many more are discussing them. They do provide remarkably detailed accounts of Putin’s supposed death that enhance their verisimilitude, but imaginative crackpots and secret police provocateurs would be expected to do the same. Seeds of doubt have been planted. Solovey has a biting sense of humor, speaks well, argues logically and generally comes across as the kind of professor every student would want. Other than his claims regarding Putin’s death and the supposed exile of Prigozhin, the deceased head of the mercenary Wagner Group, to an island off the coast of Venezuela, his analyses of Russia’s internal politics are invariably smart and incisive. As a would-be opposition leader, Solovey may be determined to sow confusion in the ranks of Russian elites and among ordinary Russians, leading them to wonder whether the great leader is still alive and to question whether the man claiming to be Putin really is Putin - thereby undermining his legitimacy. With Russia’s presidential elections scheduled for March 2024, popular doubt about Putin’s health and existence can only complicate the Kremlin’s plans. The other possibility is that Solovey and General SVR are not bona fide independent democratic oppositionists, as they claim to be. They may in fact be agents of the security services or spokesmen for powerful elites able to provide Solovey - who lives in Moscow and, despite his savage criticism of Putin, has managed to avoid arrest - with protection. Solovey himself describes his politics as liberal conservative, which may also be the appropriate modifiers to describe his protectors. Chances are that Solovey’s possible protectors are conservative reformers who would want to dismantle the worst aspects of Putinism and try to end the war. Elite efforts to delegitimize the current regime bespeak a crack within what appears to outside observers as a monolithic regime. Putin’s spokesman, Peskov, felt compelled to deny rumors of Putin’s death and the existence of Putin doubles as fake news. 'But, since Peskov is always assumed never to tell the truth, was the denial a confirmation, or was it really a denial?' The intended effect of the death claim would be the same - doubt, confusion and delegitimation. (Source: thehill)

Ukraine
Oct 31, 2023  Russia does not often publicize its own losses, and offers up only infrequent updates on what it claims to be the casualty count. 'Russia has lost more than 300,000 soldiers in its grueling 20-month-long war in Ukraine, the General Staff of Ukraine's military said today. This updated count includes 870 Russian casualties in the past 24 hours'. In September 2022, the Kremlin put the death toll for its forces at 5,937; on the same day, Kyiv's count of 'liquidated' Russian soldiers was 55,110. Both Moscow and Kyiv could benefit from inflating the other's reported losses. It is not possible to independently verify battlefield reports or casualty counts from either side. Kyiv's figure of around 300,000 Russian losses corresponds with Western intelligence estimates and open-source information, according to Mertens, an analyst with the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. The head of Ukraine's armed forces, General Zaluzhnyi, said in late August 2022 that almost 9,000 Ukrainian fighters had been killed at that point. In November 2022, the U.S.' top soldier, General Milley, said both Russia and Ukraine had likely each lost 100,000 soldiers in the fighting. Almost 500,000 Ukrainian and Russian troops had been killed or injured in 18 months of war, The New York Times reported in mid-August, citing U.S. officials. "Each side tries to paint a picture of it winning," Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, U.K. told. There are also questions about how the numbers are collated and by whom they were recorded, she said. Russia now has around 40,000 troops deployed in the vicinity of Avdiivka, Colonel Shtupun, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria group of forces covering Avdiivka, said on Sunday, October 29. (Source: newsweek)

Asia

China
Oct 31, 2023  China has not officially condemned Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel and has criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza as “collective punishment” and going “beyond self-defense.” Chinese and other social media users expressed shock this week after finding that Israel was not explicitly demarcated as a country on Baidu and Alibaba’s online digital maps. Amap and Baidu Maps are the two most popular platforms for GPS navigation in China. Amap is considered the market leader. Both are known for having spotty service outside of China; Baidu Maps only began expanding to other regions through a partnership in 2017. It’s possible that people may be noticing long-standing features of the two platforms. Both mapping services did not automatically display labels for either Israel or Palestine. Baidu spokesperson Peng told that the company may not always display the names of smaller countries due to space constraints. Baidu Maps did navigate to the country, though it still wasn’t labeled. Users can find corresponding countries or areas on Baidu Maps by simply using the map’s search function, Peng said. Amap doesn’t label other countries either, and only names cities on its map. In the Middle East, Amap displayed several capital cities near Israel and Palestine, such as Damascus, Beirut, and Amman. But it did not demarcate Israel’s Tel Aviv or the disputed city of Jerusalem, which were both displayed on Baidu Maps. China’s foreign ministry dismissed speculation that it had changed its stance on Israel’s borders during a press conference today, saying that Beijing recognizes the country on official maps. “I believe you are aware that China and Israel have a normal diplomatic relationship,” Wenbin, a ministry spokesperson, said. The relevant country is clearly marked on the standard maps issued by the Chinese competent authorities, he said. China tightly regulates how maps are depicted in the country, and it has become more aggressive in staking claims to areas it considers its own territory. Last month, Beijing released a new official map that showed land claimed by Malaysia, Vietnam, India, and the Philippines as belonging to China. Baidu Maps similarly shows the independent island of Taiwan as part of China. Other GPS services, particularly Google Maps, have been scrutinized for changing territorial borders depending on what country users are located in. In India, for example, Google displays the disputed region of Kashmir as under Indian control, while users elsewhere see a dotted line acknowledging that Pakistan also has a claim to the territory. (Source: semafor)

Gaza
October 31, 2023  The Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem blamed Israel today for the overnight bombing of its cultural centre in Gaza City and condemned the "direct and unjustified attack". "This attack represents a stark embodiment of Israel's unwarranted determination to destroy the civil infrastructure and social service centres, as well as shelters for civilians trapped in the besieged enclave," the church said. The Patriarchate said 19 places of worship, including churches and mosques, have been hit by Israeli strikes since October 7. Several people were killed on October 20 while they were sheltering in the compound of Saint Porphyrius Church, the oldest church still in use in Gaza, when it was hit by Israeli bombardment. (Source: barrons)

Oct. 31, 2023 The Israeli military reported "fierce battles" with Hamas deep inside the Gaza Strip as its ground operation pushed deeper into the north of the enclave and rescued a soldier who had been taken captive. The IDF said a massive strike on the Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip killed a senior Hamas commander who was one of the architects of the Oct. 7 terror attack. Dozens of others were killed and hundreds wounded, according to Gaza's Indonesian Hospital. Israel's national security adviser said 'the end of the war is not close' because Hamas must first cease to exist. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected growing international calls for a cease-fire after a bombing campaign that plunged Gaza into darkness and cut it off from most of the world over the weekend. (Source: nbcnews)

31/10/2023  More than half the territory's 2.3 million Palestinians have fled their homes, with hundreds of thousands sheltering in packed UN-run schools-turned-shelters or in hospitals alongside thousands of wounded patients. Several hundred thousand Palestinians remain in the northern part of Gaza, where Israeli troops and tanks reportedly have advanced on several sides of Gaza City, the sprawling urban center. Ground operations in Gaza were focused on the north, including Gaza City, described as "Hamas's centre of gravity" by Conricus, an Israeli military spokesman. Ground troops battled Hamas militants and attacked underground compounds. 'But we continue to strike in other parts of Gaza. "We are going after their commanders, we are attacking their infrastructure, and whenever there is an important target associated with Hamas, we hit it," he said. The military said it had hit some 300 militant targets over the past day. A flurry of Israeli airstrikes today in the Jabaliya refugee camp on Gaza City's outskirts levelled apartment buildings, leaving craters where they once stood. At least six airstrikes destroyed a number of apartment blocks in a residential area. The Hamas-run Interior Ministry reported a large number of casualties but did not immediately provide details. Dozens of rescue workers and bystanders dug through the wreckage, searching for survivors. As the families of hostages in Gaza campaign for the freedom of their loved ones, Hamas has claimed it will release a number of them in the coming days. 'We have informed intermediaries that we will release a certain number of foreigners in the next few days, in line with our position which we had previously announced that we don't want or need to keep them or continue to detain them in Gaza", Obeida, a Hamas spokesman said today. To date, Hamas has released five hostages but more than 200 people are still being held captive. Hamas has said it would let the others go in return for thousands of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, which has dismissed the offer. The United Nations agency in Gaza warned that “an immediate humanitarian cease-fire has become a matter of life and death for millions.' “Let's be clear: the handful of convoys authorised via Rafah are nothing compared to the needs of more than 2 million people trapped in Gaza,” said Commissioner-General Lazzarini. "The current siege imposed on Gaza is collective punishment,' he added. “An entire population is dehumanised.' Around 30 trucks carrying water, food and medicine entered Gaza through the Rafah crossing on the Egyptian border on Sunday, October 29, the largest amount of aid since 21 October. Before October 7th, around 500 trucks entered the Gaza Strip every day, which even then was considered insufficient by many observers. More than 1 million people have been displaced in Gaza. Lazzarini called Hamas' attack on southern Israel earlier this month “horrible” and “shocking”. Doctors in Gaza are being forced to operate on the ground and perform cesarean sections on women and amputations on children without anaesthesia due to a lack of medicine, Doctors of the World (MDM) said yesterday. While denouncing Hamas' "unspeakable atrocities", vice-president of MDM Corty said, "We must also condemn the fact that Israel is bombing thirsty and starving people who have no prospect of leaving'. Since October 9, Israel has subjected Gaza to a 'complete siege', depriving its 2.4 million inhabitants of water, food and electricity while limiting international aid to a trickle. The NGO also warned there would be an 'exponential' increase in infant deaths amid Israel's unrelenting strikes. “We are going from an open-air prison to an open-air mass grave', he said. Gaza's Ministry of Health says 8,306 people have been killed, including 3,457 children, since the start of the war. A White House spokesperson said yesterday that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was "not the right answer at this time', claiming the Palestinian Islamist group 'would be the only one to benefit from it.' The US however is in favour of "temporary and localised humanitarian pauses to allow aid to reach certain specific populations and perhaps even to help with the evacuation of people who want to leave' Gaza, said Kirby, spokesperson for the National Security Council. (Source: euronews)

31 October 2023  In a televised address, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Hagari confirmed that forces carried out an attack on the Jabalia refugee camp and killed Hamas commander Biari. He said several other militants were killed in the strike, adding the targeting of the commander caused underground tunnels to collapse and 'led to the destruction of other buildings'. More than 100 people are believed to have been killed in the attack, and hundreds more injured. (Source: mirror)

31 October 2023  Air strikes yesterday night outside the Indonesian Hospital caused a power cut and doctors said they feared for the lives of 250 injured Palestinians being treated there as fuel runs low. The director of Gaza's Indonesian Hospital told that more than 50 Palestinians were killed and 150 wounded in Israeli air strikes on a densely populated area of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza. Elder, a spokesperson for the UN children's agency in Geneva, warned of the risk of infant deaths due to dehydration. Children in Gaza were getting sick from drinking salty water, he said. Fighting in an urban setting, Israel said its forces fought Hamas gunmen inside the militants' vast tunnel network beneath Gaza as it expands a four-day-old ground offensive. "Over the last day, combined IDF (Israel Defense Forces) struck approximately 300 targets, including anti-tank missile and rocket launch posts below shafts, as well as military compounds inside underground tunnels belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization," an Israeli military statement said. Militants responded with anti-tank missiles and machine gun fire, a number of militants were killed, it said. Hamas said in a statement its fighters were engaging in fierce battles with Israeli ground forces, who were taking losses. Israeli forces also bombed the enclave overnight in air, sea and ground attacks, hitting northwestern areas. Yesterday, Israeli forces targeted Gaza's main north-south road and attacked Gaza City, its northern hub, from two directions. Ground fighting spreads to south Gaza. The al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas's armed wing, said militants also clashed early today with Israeli forces invading Gaza's south, hitting four Israeli vehicles with missiles and in Beit Hanoun, in the northeast, they 'liquidated' an Israeli unit which was ambushed as it entered a building. (Source: aawsat *)
* Asharq Al-Awsat (London)

Israel
October 31, 2023 An Israeli government ministry has drafted a wartime proposal to transfer the Gaza Strip’s 2.3 million people to Egypt’s Sinai peninsula, drawing condemnation from the Palestinians and worsening tensions with Cairo. In its report, the Intelligence Ministry - a junior ministry that conducts research but does not set policy - offered three alternatives 'to effect a significant change in the civilian reality in the Gaza Strip in light of the Hamas crimes that led to the Sword of Iron war.” The document proposes moving Gaza’s civilian population to tent cities in northern Sinai, then building permanent cities and an undefined humanitarian corridor. A security zone would be established inside Israel to block the displaced Palestinians from entering. The report did not say what would become of Gaza once its population is cleared out. The document dismisses the two other options: reinstating the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority as the sovereign in Gaza, or supporting a local regime. Among other reasons, it rejects them as unable to deter attacks on Israel. The reinstatement of the Palestinian Authority, which was ejected from Gaza after a weeklong 2007 war that put Hamas in power, would be 'an unprecedented victory of the Palestinian national movement, a victory that will claim the lives of thousands of Israeli civilians and soldiers, and does not safeguard Israel’s security,” the document says. Egypt would not necessarily be the Palestinian refugees’ last stop - the document speaks about Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates supporting the plan either financially, or by taking in uprooted residents of Gaza as refugees and in the long term as citizens. Canada’s “lenient” immigration practices also make it a potential resettlement target, the document adds. “In our assessment, fighting after the population is evacuated would lead to fewer civilian casualties compared to what could be expected if the population were to remain.” The document is dated Oct. 13. It was first published by Sicha Mekomit, a local news site. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office played down the report compiled by the Intelligence Ministry as a hypothetical exercise - a 'concept paper.' But its conclusions deepened long-standing Egyptian fears that Israel wants to make Gaza into Egypt’s problem, that Israel wants to force a permanent expulsion of Palestinians into its territory, as happened during the war surrounding Israel’s independence and revived for Palestinians memories of their greatest trauma - the uprooting of hundreds of thousands of people who fled or were forced from their homes during the fighting surrounding Israel’s creation in 1948. The vast majority of Gaza’s population are the descendants of Palestinian refugees uprooted from what is now Israel. Egypt ruled Gaza between 1948 and 1967, when Israel captured the territory, along with the West Bank and east Jerusalem. 'Egypt has made clear throughout this latest war that it does not want to take in a wave of Palestinian refugees'. Egypt’s president, El-Sissi, has said a mass influx of refugees from Gaza would eliminate the Palestinian nationalist cause. It would also risk bringing militants into Sinai, where they might launch attacks on Israel, he said. That would endanger the countries’ 1979 peace treaty. 'He proposed that Israel instead house Palestinians in its Negev Desert, which neighbors the Gaza Strip, until it ends its military operations'. “We are against transfer to any place, in any form, and we consider it a red line that we will not allow to be crossed,” Rudeineh, spokesman for Palestinian President Abbas, said of the report. “What happened in 1948 will not be allowed to happen again.' A mass displacement, Rudeineh said, would be 'tantamount to declaring a new war.' Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said the paper threatened to damage relations with a key partner. “I see it either as ignorance or someone who wants to negatively affect Israel-Egypt relations, which are very important at this stage.” Egypt is a valuable partner that cooperates behind the scenes with Israel, he said. If it is seen as overtly assisting an Israeli plan like this, especially involving the Palestinians, it could be “devastating to its stability.” “The issue of the ‘day after’ has not been discussed in any official forum in Israel, which is focused at this time on destroying the governing and military capabilities of Hamas,” the prime minister’s office said. (Source: apnews)

October 2023 AD  Air raid sirens sounded in the area of Israel's far southern resort city of Eilat on the Red Sea today and the Israeli military said it downed an approaching 'aerial target'. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militias said they had launched a 'large number' of ballistic missiles and drones towards Israel, their third operation targeting Israel, with more to come. (Source: aawsat *)
* Asharq Al-Awsat (London)

Lebanon
31/10/2023  'Combat aircraft recently attacked infrastructure of the terrorist organisation Hezbollah on the territory of Lebanon,' the Israeli army wrote on X today. 'Among the infrastructure attacked, weapons, positions and sites used by the organisation were destroyed,' it added. Tensions are soaring on the Israel-Lebanon border, fuelling fears the current fighting could spill over into the region. Hezbollah, backed by Iran, has engaged fire with Israeli forces repetitively since Hamas stormed into Israel and murdered hundreds of civilians on October 7th. The Shiite group announced yesterday that one of its fighters had been killed, bringing the total to 47. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati told yesterday his country was doing everything possible to avoid being drawn into the conflict. (Source: euronews)

Taiwan
October 31, 2023  Concerns are mounting in Asia that the wars in Ukraine and Israel are depleting U.S. stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, leaving it in a weaker position to defend Taiwan against a potential Chinese offensive. Experts point out that while there is some overlap, the weapons needed to fight a land war in Ukraine, or fend off short-range rockets from Gaza, are different from what would be needed in a maritime conflict in the Taiwan Strait. However, the Iran-backed, Lebanon-based militia Hezbollah could be a game changer. Hezbollah entry into war would mean Taiwan trade-off, U.S. analysts say. Israeli demand for long-range missiles and Patriots would eat into Indo-Pacific needs. A missile assault from north of Israel would create a direct trade-off with the weapons needed in the event of a Taiwan contingency, analysts told. Kavanagh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza is limited in scale and 'probably doesn't create too much of a problem for the United States to resource.' For comparison, while 6,000 to 8,000 rounds of ammunition could be used each day in Ukraine, the Israeli Defense Forces would use around 5,000 a week. "It would present the U.S. a challenge, but it will be doable, given that the U.S. is ramping up production already,' she said. If the war expands to include Hezbollah, however, "it becomes a lot tougher and the trade-offs become much starker," she said. 'Hezbollah likely has over 150,000 missiles and they could probably fire these at a rate that Israel estimates as 6,000 to 8,000 per day.' Hezbollah is believed to have advanced precision-guided missiles and short-range ballistic missiles, provided by Iran. Those higher-end missiles would present a more daunting threat to Israel's Iron Dome air defense system than that of Hamas' more rudimentary rockets. That would likely push Israel to request the U.S. to provide air defense systems like the Patriot, which is already in short supply and would directly take away from U.S. preparations for the Indo-Pacific region, Kavanagh said. Another area is long-range missiles, she said. 'If Israel's conflict with Hezbollah intensifies, or if Iran became more directly involved, Israel might see the need to conduct some longer-range strikes. Not just short-range strikes into southern Lebanon, but potentially strikes to hit Hezbollah targets in Syria or against Iranian assets.' In January, the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies published the results of its latest war games, simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In the 24 times the CSIS ran the war game, long-range missiles proved to be crucial in U.S. operations to defend Taiwan. 'Long-range missiles were critical because Chinese air defenses were initially so formidable that no aircraft could get close enough to drop short-range munitions. Even stealth aircraft were at risk,' the report said. But sophisticated, long-distance cruise missiles were only available in the early stages of the war. 'As these inventories are depleted, aircraft must use shorter-range munitions and accept more risk,' the report said. Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said, "We have a primacy hangover and we still think this is the 90s, when the United States was at the peak of its relative power, and we can do all of this. But ultimately, if we're serious about the Indo-Pacific, that means that we have to prioritize." The U.S. will have to be honest about the trade-offs, Grieco said. "There's always trade-offs in strategy. If the United States is serious about the Indo-Pacific and about deterring China, then it's going to have to reconcile its goals with its available means and that sometimes requires hard choices," she said. Kavanagh said it would not present an opportunity for China to act on Taiwan, but it may give Beijing 'additional flexibility' to be more aggressive in the region. 'That could be a little bit of what you're seeing with confrontations with the Philippines over Second Thomas Shoal,' she said. 'They feel that they have a little bit more leeway, or at least they might be interested in sort of testing the boundaries of how far they can push'. (Source: nikkei)

North America

United States
Oct 31, 2023  'Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced that the United States will pursue a modern variant of the B61 nuclear gravity bomb, designated the B61-13, pending Congressional authorization and appropriation. The Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) would produce the B61-13,' the Department of Defence release said. 'This initiative follows several months of review and consideration. The fielding of the B61-13 is not in response to any specific current event; it reflects an ongoing assessment of a changing security environment," the US Department of Defence added. The B61-13 will yield similarly to the B61-7, which has a maximum output of 360 kilotons, according to Fox News. The bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, during World War II, was around a 15 kiloton bomb. The B61-13 would be almost 14 times bigger than the 25-kiloton bomb that was dropped on Nagasaki. 'While it provides us with additional flexibility, production of the B61-13 will not increase the overall number of weapons in our nuclear stockpile,' said Assistant Secretary of Defence for Space Policy Plumb. The announcement coincides with escalating international tensions following the US' high-explosive experiment earlier this month at a nuclear test site in Nevada. (Source: economictimes /India/)

31 Oct (2023)  Speaking to a congressional committee in Washington DC, FBI director Wray has warned that Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel could motivate extremist groups across the world to step up violent campaigns. Wray told lawmakers that "the actions of Hamas and its allies will serve as an inspiration the likes of which we haven’t seen since isis launched its so-called caliphate years ago". He also warned that antisemitic attacks on Jewish Americans had increased since the conflict erupted. "This is a threat that is in some way reaching historic levels," Wray said. "The Jewish community is targeted by terrorists across the spectrum. Our statistics would indicate for a group that only represents 2.4% of the public, the Jewish community accounts for 60% of religious based hate crimes." (Source: bbc)

31 October 2023  Protesters caused chaos in Congress today. Demonstrators called the Secretary of State a "murderer' who has "blood on his hands' during mayhem at the start of the hearing on Middle East and Ukraine aid in front of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Protesters drenched in fake blood caused chaos by interrupting Blinken's testimony on Israel, to demand a ceasefire in Gaza and call for the U.S. to stop 'supporting genocide'. Blinken's comments were cut off multiple times by members of the audience waving signs calling for an end to the 'siege' of Gaza. He and Defense Secretary Austin were forced to sit in silence as protesters chanted 'ceasefire now' and held up their hands covered in red paint. The disarray led to the suspension of the hearing, before officers could restore order. A dozen protesters were arrested for disrupting the hearing. The latest stunt comes less than 24 hours after Republicans announced a plan to send $14.3billion to Israel. Blinken restarted his testimony when order restored inside the hearing room. He was able to resume his testimony and insisted the U.S. is focused on 'protecting civilian lives.' (Source: dailymail)
A photo: 'Blinken was all smiles yesterday night when his children received candy from President Biden during the White House Halloween party'. 

United Nations

Oct 31, 2023  Israel's ambassador to the UN, Erdan, and his team, wore a yellow star pinned on their coats while addressing the UN Security Council. He accused Hamas, the Palestinian terror group ruling Gaza, of atrocities and compared them with the Nazis of Germany during a speech at the UN Security Council. 'Today, after innocent Jewish babies were burned alive, this council is still silent. Some member states have learned nothing in the past 80 years. Some of you have forgotten why this body was established'. "We will wear this star until you condemn the atrocities of Hamas and demand the immediate release of our hostages," Erdan was heard saying in a video. (Source: indiatoday)

31 October 2023  Briefings to the Security Council by Lazzarini, the head of the UN children’s agency UNICEF and a senior UN humanitarian official painted a dire picture of the humanitarian situation in Gaza 23 days after Hamas’ surprise Oct. 7 attacks in Israel, and its ongoing retaliatory military action aimed at “obliterating” the militant group, which controls Gaza. The head of the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees told a UN emergency meeting yesterday “an immediate humanitarian cease-fire has become a matter of life and death for millions,” accusing Israel of “collective punishment” of Palestinians and the forced displacement of civilians. The commissioner-general of the UN agency known as UNRWA said there is no safe place anywhere in Gaza, warning that basic services are crumbling, medicine, food, water and fuel are running out, and the streets “have started overflowing with sewage, which will cause a massive health hazard very soon.” Lazzarini said “the handful of convoys” allowed into Gaza through the Rafah crossing from Egypt in recent days “is nothing compared to the needs of over 2 million people trapped in Gaza.” Lazzarini warned that a further breakdown of civil order following the looting of the agency’s warehouses by Palestinians searching for food and other aid “will make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for the largest UN agency in Gaza to continue operating.” According to the latest figures from Gaza’s Ministry of Health, more than 8,300 people have been killed - 66% of them women and children - and tens of thousands injured, the UN humanitarian office said.    UNICEF Executive Director Russell: that toll includes over 3,400 children killed and more than 6,300 injured. UNICEF oversees water and sanitation issues for the UN, and Russell warned that “the lack of clean water and safe sanitation is on the verge of becoming a catastrophe.”    Many speakers at the council meeting denounced Hamas’ Oct. 7 surprise attacks on Israel that killed over 1,400 people, and urged the release of some 230 hostages taken to Gaza by the militants. But virtually every speaker also stressed that Israel is obligated under international humanitarian law to protect civilians and their essentials for life including hospitals, schools and other infrastructure - and Israel was criticized for cutting off food, water, fuel and medicine to Gaza and cutting communications for several days.    US Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield urged the divided Security Council - which has rejected four resolutions that would have responded to the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks and the ongoing war - to come together, saying “the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is growing more dire by the day.” Stressing that all innocent civilians must be protected, she said the council must call “for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages, address the immense humanitarian needs of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, affirm Israel’s right to defend itself from terrorism, and remind all actors that international humanitarian law must be respected.” She reiterated President Biden’s calls for humanitarian pauses to get hostages out and allow aid in, and for safe passage for civilians. “That means Hamas must not use Palestinians as human shields - an act of unthinkable cruelty and a violation of the law of war,” the US ambassador said, “and that means Israel must take all possible precautions to avoid harm to civilians.” In a sign of increasing US concern at the escalating Palestinian death toll, Thomas-Greenfield told the council Biden reiterated to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday “that while Israel has the right and responsibility to defend its citizens from terrorism, it must do so in a manner consistent with international humanitarian law.” “The fact that Hamas operates within and under the cover of civilians areas creates an added burden for Israel, but it does not lessen its responsibility to distinguish between terrorists and innocent civilians,” she stressed. Following the rejection of the four resolutions in the 15-member Security Council - one vetoed by the US, one vetoed by Russia and China, and two for failing to get the minimum nine “yes” votes - Arab nations went to the UN General Assembly last Friday, October 27, where there are no vetoes. The 193-member world body adopted a resolution calling for humanitarian truces leading to a cessation of hostilities by a vote of 120-14 with 45 abstentions. Now, the 10 elected members in the 15-member Security Council are trying again to negotiate a resolution that won’t be rejected. While council resolutions are legally binding, assembly resolutions are not though they are an important barometer of world opinion. Israel’s UN Ambassador Erdan was sharply critical of the council’s failure to condemn Hamas’ attacks and asked members: 'Why are the humanitarian needs of Gazans, the sole issue, the sole issue you are focused on?” Recalling his grandfather who survived Nazi death camps but whose his wife and seven children perished in the Auschwitz gas chamber, Erdan told the council he will wear a yellow star - just as Hitler made his grandfather and other Jews wear during World War II — “until you condemn the atrocities of Hamas and demand the immediate release of our hostages.” Mansour, the Palestinian UN ambassador, also urged the Security Council to follow the General Assembly, end its paralysis, and demand “an end to this bloodshed, which constitutes an affront to humanity, war crimes, and crimes against humanity, and a clear and imminent danger for regional and international peace and security.” “Save those who still can be saved and bury in a dignified manner those who have perished,” Mansour said. (Source: aawsat *)
* Asharq Al-Awsat (London)

October 31, 2023  The United Nations special envoy for Syria, Pedersen, told the Security Council yesterday, that the Israel-Hamas war is spilling into Syria, fueled by growing instability, violence and a lack of progress toward a political solution to its 12-year conflict. On top of violence from the Syrian conflict, the Syrian people now face 'a terrifying prospect of a potential wider escalation' following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks on Israel and the ongoing retaliatory military action. 'Spillover into Syria is not just a risk; it has already begun,' the U.N. envoy for Syria said. Pedersen pointed to airstrikes attributed to Israel hitting Syria's airports in Aleppo and Damascus several times, and retaliation by the United States against what it said were multiple attacks on its forces 'by groups that it claims are backed by Iran, including on Syrian territory.' Syria was seeing a surge in violence even before Oct. 7. Pedersen said the number of Syrians killed, injured and displaced is at its highest since 2020, citing a significant intensification of attacks in government-controlled areas, including an unclaimed attack on a graduation ceremony at a military academy in Homs, which the government attributes to terrorist organizations. He also reported government rocket attacks throughout October on Hayat Tahrir al Sham . the insurgent group that rules much of rebel-held northwest Syria - as well as a major escalation of Turkish strikes in the northeast following an attack on Turkish government facilities in Ankara. The Turkish strikes have killed dozens, damaged health facilities, schools and camps, and displaced more than 120,000 civilians, he said.   U.S. Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield accused 'terrorist groups,' some backed by Syria and Iran, of threating to expand the Gaza conflict 'by using Syrian territory to plot and launch attacks against Israel.' She also accused Syria of allowing Iran and terrorist groups to use its international airports for military purposes. 'We call on the regime to curb the activities of Iran-backed militias in Syria, stop the flow of foreign arms and fighters through its territory, and cease escalatory actions in the Golan Heights,' she said. 'The United States has warned all actors not to take advantage of the situation in Gaza to widen or deepen the conflict,' she said. 'And we’ve made clear that we will respond to attacks on our own personnel and facilities in Syria or against U.S. interests, and where appropriate exercise our right to self-defense forcefully, proportionately and in a manner that minimizes civilian harm.'   Ambassador Nebenzia of Russia, Syria’s closest ally, accused Israeli forces of striking sites in Syria, including civilian airports, and called U.S. attacks in the country "illegitimate actions" and “a gross violation of Syria’s sovereignty.” He also claimed U.S. economic interests and involvement “in contraband with Syrian grain and oil” have prevailed over political interests. Nebenzia said there is a sharp increase in tensions around the Israel-Hamas conflict and attacks like the ones by the U.S. might provoke spillover to the entire region.  “This must not be deemed acceptable," he said.   Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Iravani refuted all U.S. claims, saying his country is in Syria at Damascus' request to fight terrorism. He accused Washington of attempting 'to shift the blame from the culprit to the victim.' Iravani told the council the United States’ 'unwavering support' for Israel 'has rendered it part of the problem.” He said the U.S. and some Western countries were attempting to give Israel an unjust right to self-defense while ignoring the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination, and equating the Palestinian resistance with terrorism. 'Iran’s primary objective is to avoid any escalation in the region,” the ambassador stressed, which is why it has endorsed international calls for an immediate cease-fire and humanitarian aid for people in Gaza. However, Iravani said Iran will respond to any threat, attack or aggression endangering its security. (Source: abcnews)

Globalization

Oct 31, 2023  “Hundreds of thousands are signing up for Telegram from Israel and the Palestinian Territories,” Durov, Telegram’s Russian founder, posted on his public channel on October 8, adding that the company was bringing support for Hebrew and Arabic to the app. In the absence of official information, Hamas attacks brought a surge of users - sustained government pressure on the country’s press had driven people in search of alternative news sources. Previous escalations of violence tended to coincide with an uptick of activity on Telegram. Hamas accounts have been banned from most social media platforms for years. But, when it launched its attack on Israel on October 7, Hamas had a huge presence on Telegram. “Everyone affected should have reliable access to news and private communication in these dire times,” Durov said. 'Telegram was already familiar to many Israelis, who, among other things, often procure cannabis through the app'. Hamas posted gruesome images and videos that were designed to go viral. Telegram’s lax moderation ensured they were seen around the world. Hamas take control of the narrative in those first few hours - during the course of the day, Telegram, which has 800 million users worldwide, became the main source of videos and information spreading to other social media platforms, including X, Instagram, and TikTok, where content was being reposted with little to no verification. The platform’s potential to rapidly disseminate easily downloadable and sharable content made it a crucial weapon - in real-time. One of the most-viewed videos featured professionally filmed and edited footage of armed paragliders landing on sandy terrain and storming buildings. It isn’t clear from when or where the video was filmed. Other footage, seemingly recorded on body cameras and phones, shows fighters crossing the Gaza-Israel Barrier and exchanging fire. And cameras pan over slain Israeli soldiers in the aftermath of an attack. This video, and others like it, have received more than 700,000 views apiece on Telegram. Hamas’ own channels still played the commanding role. Whereas before it was somewhat dated, now it was specifically designed: Livestreams were accompanied by a deluge of short, branded clips that could easily be shared. They definitely had highly produced content ready to go, and then their ability to post and upload in real time as the attack was unfolding also shows there was a degree of sophisticated media strategy. SITE Intelligence Group, a consultancy monitors the Qassam Brigades channel claims that Hamas’ Telegram strategy totally changed on October 7. Katz, SITE’s executive director and founder believes the group’s strategy was partly inspired by the islamic state’s playbook. Telegram used to be the app of choice for islamic state. (In an interview in 2015, Durov replied that is would simply find another app if kicked off his. 'I still think we’re doing the right thing - protecting our users’ privacy,' he said. Shortly afterward, the islamic state carried out a series of attacks in Paris, killing 130 people, earning Telegram widespread criticism. Telegram subsequently banned 78 is channels, created a bot to track and eliminate new is channels, and cooperated with Europol). Islamic state has shown how to reach a wider audience and how to process content in such a way that it evokes both fear and admiration. But Hamas is an enemy of the islamic state. Hamas, unlike islamic state, maintains international contacts, and many governments don’t regard it as a terrorist group, particularly in Asia and Latin America. In one open source intelligence war-watching group on Telegram, videos of IDF forces being humbled - basic quad drones dropping grenades on Israel’s state-of-the-art Mark IV Merkava tanks, followed by footage of soldiers fleeing their vehicles and being captured by Hamas fighters were seen. Five hours after the attacks started, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that his country was at war. One of the biggest fronts Israel failed on, and one of the biggest things that helped create panic in Israeli society, was mis- and disinformation during the first 72 hours. With little to no official information, many desperate Israelis were not just watching violent videos released by Hamas; they were also getting caught up in a mess of conspiracy theories. While videos and images of victims were soon going viral on major social networks, the most extreme content can all be traced back to Telegram: Hamas’ real-time broadcasting of its attack on Israel as psychological warfare - militants jumping the border fence, old women being taken away, people being murdered in their beds. The weaponization of Telegram played a key role in this psychological attack. In some groups, the attacks were already being blamed on the IDF for having betrayed Netanyahu. Other conspiracy theory groups on Telegram and X claimed it was all a false-flag operation by the Israeli prime minister. By the evening of October 7, the IDF, which had been concentrating on X, began posting more regularly on Telegram. By then it was already observing a very clear pipeline of images and videos of facts distorted and events exaggerated or misinterpreted from Telegram to X. The Telegram’s lack of robust content moderation, alongside its sprawling honeycomb of public channels and groups, enabled content to rapidly reach millions of people. Hamas’ Telegram channels grew rapidly in the first five days of the conflict. Qassam Brigades, the channel dedicated to the organization’s military wing, tripled in size from 205,000 to nearly 620,000 subscribers, alongside a tenfold increase in the number of views per post, according to analysis by the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab). In the year prior to the attacks, the channel had only grown by 20,000 followers. Apple and Google which host Telegram in their app stores have now begun asking the company to ban Hamas’ main channels. Before the takedown requests from Google and Apple, the Qassam Brigades channel was nearing 800,000 subscribers. It is currently down to roughly 670,000. Telegram has declined to block channels disseminating extreme content. In a post on his public channel on October 13, Durov alluded to the difficulty of policing speech in a conflict, and cited a Hamas warning before a strike on the Israeli city of Ashkelon as a reason not to act: 'Would shutting down their channel help save lives - or would it endanger more lives?' Other channels became popular, too. Gaza Now, which the DFRLab describes as 'Hamas aligned,' doubled its 350,000 subscribers in the first 24 hours of the crisis, while the average number of views in the first five days increased tenfold. The channel currently has more than 1.9 million subscribers and consistently reposts Hamas content. On Android, people now see a message telling them that two of the main Hamas-run channels, including Qassam Brigades, cannot be displayed on 'Telegram apps downloaded from the Google Play Store.” Telegram instructs Android users who want “fewer restrictions" to download the app directly from its website. Telegram, which is headquartered in Dubai, has once again found itself at the center of a complex geopolitical and humanitarian crisis. Katz alleges that Hamas’ social media activity has been effective in cultivating rare support across disparate radical Islamist groups around the world, whether Sunni or Shia. Without Telegram, this would have been impossible, argues Katz. "It allows for quick uploads and sharing, to utilize automated bots, to stay anonymous. No other platform comes close.' On October 13, on Durov’s public channel he claimed that Telegram’s moderators and unspecified 'AI tools' were removing “millions of obviously harmful content.” Campo, who directed Telegram’s growth, business, and partnerships from 2015 to 2021, argues that Durov has chosen to “maximize' amplification of content on his platform. Public channels, for example, can have an unlimited number of subscribers while private groups can reach 200,000 people, far more than WhatsApp’s 1,024-member limit. Being able to upload any type of file of up to 2 GB enables Telegram to become a bridge for content between social networks and other platforms. It reveals the outsize power of one of the world's most tight-lipped technology companies - the power of the platform to quickly spread unfiltered content ahead of traditional media, as well as the true extent of Hamas’ weaponization of the app. Many believe Instagram has been censoring and shadow-banning pro-Palestinian accounts, some of which had resorted to burying the #IStandWithIsrael hashtag in posts to get seen. Meta, which owns Instagram, said it had fixed a number of bugs that may have been causing such issues. Neff, who helped cofound Telegram and worked at VK, the Russian social network Durov used to run, believes that Durov sees Telegram as an almost neutral, public utility: He accepts there will always be both good users and bad users - but that Durov believes good people will prevail against bad people. 'They use Telegram to communicate safely, and reliably. And in situations like the [current conflict in the] Middle East, they ideally warn each other of danger which might hopefully save some lives,” Neff says. As of February 2023, there were only 60 employees. 'The almost nonexistent trust and safety team in no way can keep up with the daily global chaos they are now faced with at the scale they’ve become,' Neff adds. Unlike other platforms, Telegram does not appear to have a codified process for dealing with crises like this, instead tending to make changes under intense legal or media pressure. In the European Union, regulators have warned social media platforms against content that contravenes its Digital Services Act. A spokesman for the European Commission told that they are in contact with Telegram, without offering details. After a recent meeting of the European Union Internet Forum and pressure from Germany, Hamas’ Telegram channels are now blocked in a number of EU member states. The Hamas group is trialing a rudimentary app for keeping people updated on the latest news and announcements from the Qassam Brigades - another example of its expanded technical capabilities. Hamas seems to be preparing for their communications to be disrupted in the event that Telegram does remove the group. Whatever happens, as Telegram continues to develop into the de facto platform for witnessing war in real-time, unfiltered and unmoderated, it is changing the way the world experiences violent conflict. Hamas’ ability to widely share images and videos of its attacks have the potential to inspire further violence, Katz argues. This is going to escalate and be a much bigger problem. "Because this will lead to more violence around the world.' And for that, Katz claims, Telegram will be in no small part responsible. “The feeling now is that [Telegram is] not closing anything,' Nashif, a Palestinian digital rights activist tells from his home in the northern Israeli city of Haifa. Nashif has seen Israeli channels mocking murdered Palestinians.'“People abusing the [dead] bodies, making jokes …' Nashif and 7amleh, the civil rights organization he leads, have been documenting cases of Palestinians being threatened by Israeli channels and groups on Telegram since the conflict began. “That means that Telegram is also not going to shut Israeli channels inciting [violence],' he said. “I think that the owner and leadership of the company are very aware that this is bringing to them millions of people and subscribers,' Nashif alleges. 'I think it's part of the business model.' Based on prior examples, Durov appears to have an aversion to interfering or taking sides in political and international crises, based more on pragmatism than principle. 'First of all, he’s worried about the size of the audience", Rozenberg, who worked with Durov from the early days of VK in 2007, before becoming director of special areas, which involved anti-spam work at Telegram from 2016 to 2017, claims. "And if he started blocking channels or content with pro-Palestine and/or pro-Israel positions, he would be blamed by huge parts of Telegram's audience in a lot of countries, that he supported another side of the conflict.” 'So, it’s just business.' Source: wired)

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Sulyok, az Alkotmánybíróság elnöke

az Inforádió Aréna című műsorában

- video -

(Forrás: YouTube / Inforádió):

https://tinyurl.com/yt5uhxhc

Felülírhatja-e az európai jog a nemzeti alkotmányokat? Mi a különbség a nemzeti jogrendszerek és az Európai Unió jogrendszere között? Melyik táplálkozik szuverenitásból, és melyik származtatott, átruházott hatáskörökből? Milyen az európai jogi tér? Mindegyik jogrendszer önálló? Melyik csúcsán milyen csúcsszerv áll a jogértelmezést illetően? Van-e köztük hierarchia? Mi történik, ha a nemzeti Alkotmánybíróság egy jogi kérdés megítélésében más döntésre jut, mint az európai jogot értelmező Európai Unió Bírósága? Milyen megoldás van az efféle kollíziós helyzetekre?     Elsőbbsége van-e minden helyzetben az európai jognak, akár még a nemzeti alkotmányokkal szemben is? Milyen megoldásokat dolgozott ki a német Alkotmánybíróság EU-s jog és a nemzeti alkotmány ütközéseinek felülvizsgálatára? Mit jelent az, hogyha egy nemzeti Alkotmánybíróság úgy dönt az Európai Unió Bírósága egyik ítéletéről, hogy túlterjeszkedik a saját jogterületén (ultra vires) és önkényes, ezért nem érvényes? Beavatkozhat-e akár az Európai Bizottság, akár egy nemzeti kormány (adott esetben a német) egy nemzeti Alkotmánybíróság ítélethozatalába?     Széteshet-e az Európai Unió joga ezeknek a vitáknak a hatására? Visszavehet-e átruházott hatáskört egy nemzeti kormány az Európai Uniótól, ha az nem gyakorolja ezt hatékonyan? Milyen határozata van ebben a tárgykörben a magyar Alkotmánybíróságnak? Hogyan vezethető le a nemzeti identitás a nemzeti Alaptörvényből?     Hol az Alkotmánybíróság helye a magyar jogrendszerben? Mi a magyar Alkotmánybíróság történetének két fő fázisa? Mennyiben hasonlítanak a magyar Alkotmánybíróság 2012 óta létező jogai és hatáskörei a német Alkotmánybíróságéhoz? Melyek az alkotmányjogi panaszok típusai? Hogyan gyakorolhat alapjogi normakontrollt az Alkotmánybíróság az egyes bírósági döntések, és így a teljes bírósági rendszer fölött?     Van-e olyan jogi kérdés, amely nem függ össze az Alaptörvénnyel? Milyen az alkotmánybíráskodás és az Alkotmánybíróság kapcsolata ma? Hogyan kérhet a magyar Országgyűlés előzetes normakontrollt az Alkotmánybíróságtól? Hogyan kérhet normakontrollt a köztársasági elnök? Hány konkrét példa volt ezekre a jelenlegi ciklusban? Miért érzékeli egyfajta elefántcsont-toronynak az Alkotmánybíróságot?

Kulcsszavak:

Alaptörvény     Alkotmány      Alkotmánybíróság     Bajorország     Európa     Európai Bizottság     Európai Parlament    Európai Unió     Európai Bíróság     Hollandia      Magyarország     Németország     Országgyűlés      Románia     video

2023. X. 23 - 2024. II. 22. között 9782 megtekintés.

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Poland
Sun October 1, 2023  Polish opposition hold Warsaw rally ahead of October 15 vote. The upcoming election pits two parties with very different policy prescriptions for Poland’s future: the more nationalist, inward-looking, anti-immigration vision of the PiS versus the liberal, pro-Europe PO political movement. Organizers said that 1 million people attended the “March of a Million Hearts.' The event began at 12 p.m. with speeches from several leaders. Attendees began a 4-kilometer march an hour later. Polish press agency PAP quoted local police saying about 100,000 people participated. The conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party has ruled Poland since 2015. Tusk, the former European Council president now is leading the PO. Poland’s conservative government has found itself repeatedly at odds with the EU in recent years. The country’s anti-abortion laws are the strictest in Europe. The PiS was hoping to woo conservative voters by promoting a Catholic image. Two years ago Poland’s high court was defying the primacy of EU law - it deemed EU rules were subordinate to Polish law. Now Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski said that he hoped that today’s event was the beginning of a march 'toward a completely different Poland.' (Source: cnn)

Slovakia
October 1, 2023  Slovakia, an eastern European nation of about 5.5 million people, was going to the polls to choose its fifth prime minister in four years after seeing a series of shaky coalition governments. The final opinion polls published last week showed SMER and PS neck and neck. SMER party headed by a pro-Kremlin figure came out top after securing more votes than expected, what could pose a challenge to NATO and EU unity on Ukraine. Fico doubled down on his rhetoric, said he “will do everything” in his power to kickstart Russia-Ukraine peace talks. “More killing is not going to help anyone,” Fico said. Negotiations are unlikely to be welcomed in Ukraine, as for now they would likely involve proposals in which territory is ceded to Russia, which is a non-starter for Kyiv. PS's Šimečka said his party will do 'everything it could' to prevent Fico from governing. 'We think it will be really bad news for the country, for our democracy, for our rule of law, and for our international standing and for our finances and for our economy if Mr Fico forms the government' Šimečka said. The moderate-left Hlas party, led by a former SMER member and formed as an offshoot of SMER following internal disputes, came third with 14.7% of the vote, and could play kingmaker. With seven political parties reaching the 5% threshold needed to enter the parliament, coalition negotiations will almost certainly include multiple players and could be long and messy. Fico needs at least two other parties to gain a majority in the parliament. A coalition with Hlas and the far-right nationalist SNS appears most likely.  Fico has pledged an immediate end to Slovak military support for Ukraine and promised to block Ukraine’s NATO ambitions in what would upend Slovakia’s staunch backing for Ukraine. Pellegrini, the leader of Hlas, said his party was “very pleased with the result,” adding that the party will “make the right decision” to become part of a government that will lead Slovakia out of the “decay and crisis that (the country’s previous leaders) got us into.” In the election campaign Pellegrini has suggested Slovakia “had nothing left to donate” to Kyiv, but also said that the country should continue to manufacture ammunition that is shipped to Ukraine. A SMER-led government could have serious consequences for the region. Slovakia was among the handful of European countries pushing for tough EU sanctions against Russia and has donated a large amount of military equipment to Ukraine. Fico has blamed “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists” for provoking Russia’s President Putin into launching the invasion, repeating the narrative Putin has used to justify his invasion. While in opposition, Fico became a close ally of Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orbán, especially when it came to criticism of the EU. There is speculation that, if he returns to power, Fico and Orbán could gang up together and create obstacles for Brussels. If Poland’s governing Law and Justice party manages to win a third term in Polish parliamentary elections next month, 'this bloc of EU troublemakers could become even stronger'. Polls suggest Fico’s pro-Russia sentiments are shared by many Slovaks. According to a survey by GlobSec, a Bratislava-based security think tank, 40% of Slovaks believed Russia was responsible for the war in Ukraine, the lowest proportion among the eight central and eastern European and Baltic states GlobSec focused on. In the Czech Republic, which used to form one country with Slovakia, 71% of people blame Russia for the war. The same research found that 50% of Slovaks perceive the United States – the country’s long-term ally – as a security threat. (Source: cnn)

01-Oct-2023  Slovakia held parliamentary elections yesterrday – and the winner raises questions over whether the central European country will continue to support Ukraine. The results show that a new government can only be formed by a coalition, which was expected. But the big question now would be, who is going to make the sweetest coalition offer to other parties? Fico came to his party headquarters almost as soon as voting stations closed at 22:45 local time. He refused to make any comments or statements. In the PS camp, their only hope is that the main point of their campaign would be followed by the new coalition government. 'I'm hopeful that, again, regardless of how the election plays out, Slovakia will continue to support Ukraine as it has until today,' PS leader Simecka said. Slovakia is one of the biggest suppliers of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, its easterly neighbor with whom it shares a 100km border. But judging by what the third main party leader Peter Pellegrini said earlier, yesterday morning, it seems that PS hopes about continued support might not materialize. "Slovakia has depleted all options for any military help for Ukraine, so this, of course, is not a topic for Slovakia anymore," said Pellegrini. "Of course, humanitarian aid is available when needed. "What I would focus on and would like to do is agree a deal with Brussels to allocate some of the future help intended for Ukraine to come to Slovakia, to help flourish eastern Slovakia," he added. Some of the voters at a Bratislava voting station expressed their dissatisfaction with the country's Ukraine policies and admitted that some deep divisions exist in the country. "It is full of Ukrainians here," said one female voter. "This is what I seriously do not like. They get benefits. Energy costs went up, everything went up. So basically, they are getting benefits, and we, the citizens, are paying." Another Bratislava resident, Vladimir said: "There are a lot of problems because society is divided into two groups - one is pro-western, and the other is rather pro-eastern. Here in Bratislava, the majority of citizens are unambiguously pro-Western." Bratislava was one of only two regions in the country where pro-EU Progressive Slovakia has won. The issue of supporting Ukraine has dominated these elections, yet the end result of political wheeling and dealing as efforts get underway to form a coalition, remains to be seen. So, which concessions would determine whether Slovakia would continue its military support for Ukraine or if it would turn its back on Brussels's demands and join the ranks of Viktor Orbán's Hungary? Will Slovakia's new coalition government continue to support Ukraine? (Source: cgtn)

Oct. 1 (2023)  The pro-Russia Smer-SSD party won the largest share of seats in Slovakia's parliament during weekend voting, vowing to cut off the country's support for Ukraine. Smer-SSD, led by former Prime Minister Robert Fico, led all other parties with 22.9% of the vote. The Hlas-SD party, led by 'Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini', finished in third place with about 14% while the Slovak National Party won 5.7% of the vote. Those three parties together will hold 81 seats in the 150-seat parliament, good for a six-seat majority should they agree to form a ruling coalition. The pro-European Progesivne slovensko, or PS, led by Simecka, finished in second place with 18% of the vote. Fico was congratulated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in a post on X,: "Guess who's back! Congratulations to Robert Fico on his undisputable victory at the Slovak parliamentary elections," Orbán wrote. "Always good to work together with a patriot. Looking forward to it!" (Source: upi)

01/10/2023  The career of a pro-Russian politician who was ousted from power five years ago after a journalist was murdered for revealing government corruption. Bodybuilding and misogyny: a fan of Putin, fast cars and football - Robert Fico, 59, leader of the centre-left Smer-D party should return to his former post as prime minister of Slovakia if he can find enough allies to form a government following early parliamentary elections yesterday. Fico’s centre-left party, Direction-Social Democracy (Smer-SD), won 22.9% of the vote, beating the centrist Progressive Slovakia party (17.9%). Fico, who has spent his life navigating the political chessboard, began his career with the Communist Party when he was a lawyer. He first forged a reputation on the European stage as his country’s representative to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg from 1994 to 2000. In 1999, he left the Party of the Democratic Left, the political heir to the Communist Party, to found his own, the Smer-SD. In 2006, this party won a landslide victory in parliament, catapulting Fico to the position of prime minister two years after Slovakia joined the EU. Fico then formed a coalition with the far-right Slovak National Party, which shared his anti-refugee rhetoric and populist leanings, and boosted his popularity during the 2007-2009 global financial crisis by refusing to impose austerity measures. Fico was twice elected as prime minister of this Eastern European country of 5.4 million inhabitants. During the 2015 migration crisis in Europe, he took a stand against migrants, refusing to "create a separate Muslim community in Slovakia" and criticising the European quota programme for distributing refugees. He was forced to resign in 2018 following the murder of investigative journalist Kuciak and his fiancée. The murdered journalist revealed ties between the Italian mafia and the Smer-SD in an article published posthumously. Kuciak's investigation focused on Troskova, a former model who became Fico's assistant. It uncovered links between an Italian businessman, the Calabrian mafia and Troskova, threatening thus Fico’s inner circle. The billionaire businessman Kocner was charged in 2019 with ordering the murder, before being acquitted the following year. Other suspects were convicted after they pleaded guilty, including the shooter, a former soldier who was given a 23-year prison sentence. At the time of the murder, Fico was already known for having a difficult relationship with the press: On more than one occasion, he publicly described Slovak journalists, who regularly accused the government of corruption, as "idiotic hyenas" and "dirty anti-Slovak prostitutes". Even though an anti-corruption coalition took power in 2020, Fico managed to keep his seat in parliament following his resignation.  A survey carried out in 2022 by the Globsec think-tank showed that 54% of Slovaks are vulnerable to the theory that the world is governed by secret groups that want to establish a totalitarian ‘New World Order’. Having previously hailed Slovakia's adoption of the euro as a "historic decision', Fico is now openly attacking the EU, NATO and war-torn Ukraine 'in the hopes of appealing to far-left and far-right voters'. In the streets of the capital Bratislava, the posters of Fico's party promise "stability, order and well-being", of which he claims to be the guarantor. In the new world that Fico promises, migrants and LGBT+ people – the targets of his most virulent attacks – are no longer welcome. "I will certainly never be a supporter of them [LGBT+ people] being able to marry, as we see in other countries," he told a press conference recently, after saying adoption by same-sex couples, which is not possible in Slovakia, was a "perversion". He is married to a lawyer with whom he has a son. The couple are separated. The politician is open about his admiration for Putin's authoritarian rule, writes Slovak sociologist Vasecka in his book 'Fico: Obsessed with Power'. Fico recently announced that he would not authorise the arrest of Putin, who is the subject of an international warrant for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, if he ever came to Slovakia. He also promised on the campaign trail to put an end to Slovakia's military aid to Ukraine. Fico now prefers to avoid all interaction with the press. While campaigning, he addressed his electorate mainly through videos posted on Facebook, YouTube and Telegram – videos that are among the most popular in Slovakia. True to form, he does this in a provocative and misogynistic manner, having made Slovak President Caputova his scapegoat for several years. The anti-corruption lawyer became the country’s president in 2019. 'The daily newspaper Le Monde described in an article one of Fico’s encounters with Caputova in vivid detail. During Labour Day celebrations in May 2022, he called Caputova an "American whore". And "the more of a whore a person is, the more famous they become", he said'. (Source: france24 'with AFP")

European Commission
October 1, 2023  After the U.S. Congress passed a stopgap funding bill late yesterday that omitted aid to Ukraine, the 'proposition on the table' showed the EU wanted to increase military aid to Ukraine, European Union foreign policy chief Borrell said today after his first in-person meeting with Ukrainian Defence Minister Umerov, who was appointed last month. On X, Borrell said the bloc was preparing 'long-term security commitments for Ukraine'. He told he hoped member states would reach a decision on increasing aid 'before the end of the year'. Umerov said their discussions of EU military aid covered 'artillery & ammunition, air defense, EW (electronic warfare) & long-term assistance programs, trainings, and defence industry localization' in Ukraine. The European Defence Agency said that seven EU countries had ordered ammunition under a procurement scheme to get urgently needed artillery shells to Ukraine and replenish depleted Western stocks. (Source: Reuters)

Nagorno Karabakh
October 1, 2023  Azerbaijan’s prosecutor general Aliyev issued an arrest warrant for ex-Nagorno-Karabakh leader Arayik Harutyunyan today who led the breakaway region largely populated by ethnic Armenians, between May 2020 and the beginning of September. Less than a month later, the separatist government said it would dissolve itself by the end of 2023 after a three-decade bid for independence. Azerbaijani police arrested one of Harutyunyan’s former prime ministers, Ruben Vardanyan. Arayik Harutyunyan and the enclave’s former military commander, Jalal Harutyunyan, are accused of firing missiles on Azerbaijan’s third-largest city, Ganja, during a 44-day war in late 2020d. The clash between the Azerbaijani military clash and Nagorno Karabakh forces led then to the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in the region. While Baku has pledged to respect the rights of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, these days many have fled due to fear of reprisals or losing the freedom to use their language and to practice their religion and cultural customs. Today, Armenia’s presidential press secretary, Baghdasaryan, said that 100,483 people had already arrived in Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh, which had a population of about 120,000 before Azerbaijan’s offensive. Some people lined up for days to escape the region because the only route to Armenia - a winding mountain road - became jammed with slow-moving vehicles. Armenian Health Minister Avanesyan said some people, including older adults, had died while on the road to Armenia as they were “exhausted due to malnutrition, left without even taking medicine with them, and were on the road for more than 40 hours.” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan alleged Thursday, September 28, that the exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh amounted to “a direct act of an ethnic cleansing and depriving people of their motherland.” Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry rejected Pashinyan’s accusations, saying the departure of Armenians was 'their personal and individual decision and has nothing to do with forced relocation.' A United Nations delegation arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh today to monitor the situation. The mission is the organization’s first to the region for three decades. Local officials dismissed the visit as a formality. Tadevosyan, spokesperson for Nagorno-Karabakh’s emergency services, said the U.N. representatives had come too late and the number of civilians left in the regional capital of Stepanakert could be counted on one hand. “We walked around the whole city but found no one. There is no general population left,” he said. In Athens, Greece, several hundred Armenians gathered today evening outside the Greek Parliament to protest the upcoming dissolution of Nagorno Karabakh - or Artsakh, as they called it. They then marched to the European Union offices, a few blocks away. The protest was peaceful. (Source: apnews)

Russia
10/1/23  Videos have begun to circulate on social media today showing a drone strike on a helicopter base. At approximately 7 a.m. ET, Nexta, an independent news outlet based out of Poland, took to X, to share a clip purportedly showing a drone flying over the Russian city of Sochi, a resort city on the Black Sea in southwestern Russia. Roughly an hour later, Gerashchenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian minister of internal affairs, online commentator wrote and shared another clip of the Sochi incident to X. 'Russian Telegram channels report a drone attack near Sochi,' a helicopter parking lot in Adler area was hit, he wrote. A little before 9 a.m. ET, Kyiv Post correspondent Smart shared a third clip of the drone strike, this time showing the craft actually crashing and exploding. Smart also claimed that flights in the Sochi area had been canceled as a result. Ukrainska Pravda reported that the strike in Sochi had been carried out by the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence agency. Around the same time as the strike in Sochi, The Kyiv Independent reported that another drone strike had been successfully carried out in Smolensk, near Russia's border with Belarus. This strike targeted an aircraft factory, operated by Russia's Tactical Missile Armament state corporation. (Source: newsweek)

October 1, 2023  At memorials to Prigozhin, who was killed in an unexplained plane crash exactly 40 days ago, dozens of mourners hailed the mercenary chief as a patriotic hero of Russia who had spoken truth to power. At memorials in Moscow and other Russian cities dozens of Wagner fighters and ordinary Russians paid their respects, though there was no mass outpouring of grief. Russian state television was silent. In eastern Orthodoxy, it is believed that the soul makes its final journey to either heaven or hell on the 40th day after death. Putin was yesterday shown meeting one of the most senior former commanders of the Wagner mercenary group and discussing how best to use "volunteer units" in the Ukraine war. (Source: Reuters)

1 Oct 2023  The regime in Chechnya is poised to stay intact if Kadyrov is to leave the position of governor early, it is resilient enough to survive any change of leadership. Kadyrov sits atop the regime hierarchy but he alone does not represent the entirety of the regime. It is a personalised, but stable regime. After taking over the reins of power from his father, Akhmat, who was assassinated in 2004, Kadyrov has systematically sought to eliminate anyone who could pose a threat to his position. Critics and rivals have been assassinated or have had to flee abroad, where they live in fear of being targeted. Kadyrov has also secured his post by developing a personal connection with Putin. Their familial, nearly paternal relationship is closer than any other the Russian president has had with a regional leader. Kadyrov receives significant funds from the federal budget. Chechnya is one of the most subsidised regions in Russia; by its leader’s own admission, it would not survive a month without funding from Moscow. The Kremlin perceives these funds as a way to buy stability and peace in the republic, which suffered through two wars in the 1990s. There are a number of powerful men who manage various aspects of governance. Chechnya’s Speaker of Parliament Daudov and Deputy Prime Minister Vismuradov handle internal affairs, particularly in relation to repressing the public and maintaining stability. Both men have reputations for extreme violence and have been connected to cases of torture. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the pair have also overseen deployments of Chechen fighters to the battlefield. Prime Minister Muslim Khuchiev, a traditional bureaucrat, manages conventional governance operations, having occupied a variety of government positions. Delimkhanov, Kadyrov’s most trusted lieutenant and a member of the Russian Duma, controls the regime’s informal, frequently criminal, operations outside Chechnya. He has been responsible for stamping out opposition to Kadyrov among the Chechen diaspora and has been accused of organising several assassinations. He has also played a prominent public role in Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine, deploying into occupied territories with Chechen forces. These powerful figures would be able to continue Kadirov's regime’s operations, likely with one of them serving as the acting regional head. Kadyrov is also grooming his eldest son, Akhmat, as his successor, although he remains roughly seven years away from meeting the legal age requirement to be a governor. The Kremlin is likely to accept Akhmat as Ramzan’s successor not just because his father desires it, but because it maintains the current structure of relations. This keeps Chechnya as a political constant, rather than an unpredictable vassal region. Stability is also guaranteed by its massive repressive apparatus, which swiftly roots out any form of opposition when it appears. For example, in September last year, after Moscow announced partial mobilisation, Chechen women went out in Grozny to demonstrate against the decision. The protesters were taken to the Grozny mayor’s office by the security services and beaten, while their male relatives were forcibly deployed to the front in Ukraine. In December, a fight between two security officials in the Chechen city of Urus-Martan was followed by a large-scale security campaign to detain residents who were entertained by the altercation, witnessed and recorded the incident on their phones. The Chechen public’s means to organise armed resistance are limited. In the 1990s, Chechens fought for independence from Russia but were defeated in the second Russo-Chechen war, with many fighters leaving the republic. Today, the bulk of Chechen opposition forces have moved to Ukraine to continue their struggle against Russia. They have no clear path to return to their homeland. Crossing overland from the Southern Caucasus appears not possible at the moment. Georgia remains unfriendly towards Chechens due to its fraught history of spillover conflict and a failed attempt to exploit fighters from the region. Azerbaijan likewise would not allow Chechen fighters to transit through its territory out of its own security considerations and reluctance to anger Moscow. The major challenge would be of a limited arms supply. Some weapons caches from the 2000s’ insurgency remain hidden in the woods, but their number and usability are questionable. The war in Ukraine could increase the availability of weapons within Russia, but that would not be sufficient on its own to supply a substantial armed resistance force. Kadyrov is also taking measures to prevent a new rebellion. He reduced the number of Chechen troops fighting in Ukraine within the first few months of the war and last summer ordered the security services to get better prepared for underground fighting. He can also rely on military backing from Moscow were there to be internal strife and his regime would keep Chechen aspirations for freedom and independence at bay. Rumours about Kadyrov’s health deteriorating have surfaced for a few years now. On September 15, Yusov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian military intelligence, told journalists that Kadyrov, the governor of the North Caucasian republic Chechnya, was in a coma. Some suggested he was in a hospital in Moscow, receiving treatment for kidney problems, others that he was suffering from the negative effects of drug addiction, and a minority even declared his death. There seem to be hopes in some quarters that in the event of Kadyrov’s debilitating illness or death, Chechnya, and by extension Russia, would be destabilised, which would help Ukraine win the war.  The health condition of Chechnya’s leader does not matter much. (Source: aljazeera)

Ukraine
September 30, 2023  Earlier this year government officials effectively banished clergy loyal to the Moscow patriarch from the most sacred parts of a gold-domed monastery complex called the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra. Some told they worry their church's banishment from parts of the monastery is only a beginning. "Our monks lived here from ancient times," said Metropolitan Clement. "Access is closed now to clergymen and to many believers who could come to to pray here even in Soviet times." Metropolitan Clement is spokesman for the largest Orthodox community in Ukraine, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Moscow Patriarchate, which has been governed by the Moscow patriarch since the 1600s. He says millions of his church's believers face religious persecution. In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine with the blessing of Kirill, the Moscow patriarch and head of the Russian Orthodox Church. Speaking last year, Kirill promised Russian soldiers who die in the conflict that their sacrifice washes away all sins. Kirill's embrace of the war sparked growing rage and division within Ukraine, where millions worship in Moscow-affiliated Orthodox churches. The war has placed their traditional faith, dating back generations, in conflict. Officials with the Moscow-aligned church say they have taken steps to distance themselves from Patriarch Kirill.  In May 2022, clergy within Ukraine's Moscow-aligned Orthodox church circulated a resolution that would have led to a complete divorce from Russia and its influence. That resolution was never ratified. Clergy in Kyiv issued a statement last year formally condemning the invasion. They also note that many soldiers fighting against Russia are members of the Moscow-aligned church. Researchers say before the war began there were roughly 12,000 Orthodox parishes in Ukraine linked to Russia. Over the last 19 months, only about 1,500 of those congregations have voted to join a break-away Ukrainian-led church. Russia-aligned parishes remain particularly popular in eastern Ukraine. "Thousands of our believers and hundreds of sons of our priests defend Ukraine,' said Metropolitan Clement. 'Burials of defenders of Ukraine take place every day at our churches." Public anger at Orthodox clergy who remain under Patriarch Kirill's purview surged again earlier this year after Ukraine's intelligence service, known as the SBU, released a wire-tap phone recording of a top religious leader, Metropolitan Pavel, apparently praising Russia's invasion. "There are already Russian flags everywhere," Pavel can be heard saying. "And people are happy. People are happy." A separate recording released last November appeared to show Moscow-aligned Orthodox believers in Kyiv singing, "Mother Russia is awakening." Outside the monastery complex in Kyiv angry Ukrainians' counter-protests turn up on most days to confront Orthodox worshippers loyal to the Russian tradition, shouting insults through bullhorns and accusing them of disloyalty. Metropolitan Pavel is accused of secretly backing Russia's invasion. He remains under house arrest in Kyiv awaiting trial on charges of disloyalty. Meanwhile at religious services in Kyiv, many worshippers carry his photograph and describe him as a martyr of their faith. There's a growing debate in Ukraine over just how much their society should tolerate Orthodox believers loyal to the Moscow church in a time of bitter war. Religious scholars say roughly a hundred different religions are practiced freely and without interference within the country. But Ukraine's government views Orthodox clergy influenced by Russia as a threat. The SBU has been raiding Moscow-aligned churches, searching homes of some top clergy and prosecuting priests suspected of actively aiding Russia. Some religious leaders in Ukraine say it's time for the Moscow-aligned church to be banned outright. Omelian, a priest and spokesman for the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which is fully independent of Moscow, governed entirely within Ukraine, describes the Moscow-aligned church as a threat. This accusation - that Orthodox believers loyal to the Moscow patriarch are a danger to national security - frightens some believers, who insist that their faith is nonpolitical. "We're living in a country that's not free and we can't be sure of our safety," said a man who would only identify himself as Vladislov. He told he feared persecution if he provided his full name. Nikiforov, a religious scholar who worships in a Moscow-aligned church, told that government officials should arrest and prosecute anyone, including priests, found to be actively aiding Russia. But the country and its police should respect the faith of millions who want to go on worshipping as they did before the full-scale invasion. "People still will go to underground churches. They will go to [worship] in their rooms or their houses and this is very dangerous for the Ukrainian state." "It's impossible to close or to destroy the biggest religious organization in Ukraine," Nikiforov said. (Source: npr)

01.10.2023  Ukraine reported today that the Russian army launched attacks across the country during the night. An announcement from the Ukrainian Air Force said that Russia used 30 Iranian-made Shahed UAVs in the attacks. Sixteen of these UAVs were shot down by Ukrainian air defense systems, it added. The military administration of the northeastern Kharkiv region also said that the Russian army carried out an attack on the city with three S-300 missiles. A fire broke out as a result of one of the missiles hitting a facility. (Source: aa) 

United Kingdom
01 October, 2023  UK Defence Minister Shapps, who was appointed to the role last month, said that after a discussion on Friday, September 29 with British military chiefs, he wanted to deploy military instructors to Ukraine in addition to training Ukrainian armed forces in Britain or other Western countries. 'Particularly in the west of the country, I think the opportunity now is to bring more things 'in country',' he added. Shapps added that he hoped British defence companies such as BAE Systems would proceed with plans to set up arms factories in Ukraine. Hours after his comments were published, PM Rishi Sunak told reporters at the start of the governing Conservative Party's annual conference in Manchester that there were no immediate plans to send British troops to Ukraine. "That's something for the long term, not the here and now. There are no British soldiers that will be sent to fight in the current conflict." Britain has provided five-week military training courses to around 20,000 Ukrainians over the past year, and intends to train a similar number going forward. To date, Britain and its allies have avoided a formal military presence in Ukraine to reduce the risk of a direct conflict with Russia. Former Russian President Medvedev today said any British soldiers training Ukrainian troops in Ukraine would be legitimate targets for Russian forces. (Source: thenewarab)

China
1st October 2023  Abandoned railways, half-built bridges & a sea of roads to nowhere - under Xi, China has admitted it has grand plans to establish itself on the world stage as a pioneering global influence by 2050. Xi unveiled the world’s most ambitious infrastructure project 10 years ago this month – wooing Asia, Africa and the Middle East with bold promises. Dubbed the “project of the century', the Belt and Road Initiative was billed as a mega plan to create trade routes through huge swathes of Eurasia, with China at the centre. They boast of an “all-weather” partnership with Pakistan, a mutual defence treaty with North Korea, and an “unbreakable” friendship with Belarus. With promises of loans and vast infrastructure projects like roads, railways and bridges, more than 150 countries have signed up. It substantially broadened China’s sphere of influence and China’s tendrils now extend far beyond the Indo-Pacific – reaching deep into the Middle East, Africa and beyond. In most parts of Sub-Saharan, China has already displaced the US and has become the primary influencer. Even in Israel, China’s influence has expanded rapidly. In the coming years, the potential flashpoints will be Iran and Ethiopia. It all forms part of Xi’s plan for China to become the most powerful global power by extending a friendly hand to a web of potential new allies. But a decade on, his vision appears to be crumbling in many parts of the world – halted by bankruptcy, corruption and mountains of debt. According to research lab AidData, one-third of projects have been plagued by furious protests, corruption scandals, labour violations, or environment problems. Many have been left unable to keep up with the return payments. Building projects end up being ditched or unfinished until the debt is settled. After a decade of construction, experts told that Xi’s flagship project has mostly crumbled – leaving many poorer countries trapped by China’s control. As debt mounts, it’s feared more of these projects will go unfinished – and greedy Chinese lenders will seize control of land and key assets in lieu of repayment. Some suggest that it is a plan to further China’s ambitions using 'predatory loans' and 'debt traps' to bring nations’ under their sphere of influence. Some countries have become too reliant on China – ending up in forms of debt dependence on China, in a debt spiral with unfinished projects. British MI6 chief Moore warned China’s use of money is means to “get people on the hook” - he said the country has also enlisted the use of 'data traps' as it attempts to build it’s global intelligence. “If you allow another country to gain access to really critical data about your society, over time that will erode your sovereignty, you no longer have control over that data,” he explained. In terms of power politics, Xi has successfully realised his objectives through the Belt and Road Initiative – positioning China at the forefront of global power politics. In some places, the money associated with it has bled away due to corruption, in others because of inefficiency, and elsewhere because of change of governments and broader political factors. Countries such as Kazakhstan, Kenya, Laos, Montenegro and Sri Lanka have found themselves crippled by debt and reliant on Beijing. In Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, enormous concrete columns are a daily reminder of a China-funded railway that was stopped after a corruption scandal. In Kenya, the Standard Gauge Railway, supposed to weave 290 miles, connecting the coastal city of Mombasa to Nairobi was halted in 2019 after China withheld funding – 'ending in a field a few hundred miles' short of its destination. The new highway connecting the city of Bar on Montenegros Adriatic coast to landlocked neighbour Serbia, (Bar-Boljare highway) is being constructed by China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC), the large state-owned Chinese company. Chinese workers have spent six years carving tunnels through solid rock and raising concrete pillars above gorges and canyons, but the road in effect goes nowhere. Two sleek new roads vanish into mountain tunnels high above a sleepy Montenegrin village, the unlikely endpoint of a billion-dollar project that is threatening to derail the tiny country's economy. Almost 130 kilometres still needs to be built at a likely cost of at least one billion euros ($1.2 billion). The government has already burnt through $944 million in Chinese loans to complete the first stretch of road, just 41 kilometres, making it among the world's most expensive pieces of tarmac which has left the country crippled with debt. Where the environment is less stable – like in parts of Africa or the Middle East – then Chinese investment continues to be prone to accusations of low local benefit coming due to import of Chinese labour, poor environmental standards, and corruption. But the bottom line is that for many countries, the BRI offers an alternative to western support. When it comes to China, that if it’s a choice between an imperfect project, and no project at all, more often than not the former is the best option. (Source: thesun)

United States
October 1, 2023  President Biden has given the Pentagon the green light to supply Ukraine with an unspecified number of MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS - a series of short-range, surface-to-surface ballistic missiles that have been in service for more than three decades. The U.S. military first used them against the forces of Iraqi dictator Hussein during the First Gulf War in 1991. The U.S. has around 3,000 ATACMS and will likely send either the Block 1 or Block 1A ATACMS to Ukraine. Weighting almost 3,700 pounds, the older Block 1 version has a range of up to 103 miles and can carry a single warhead of up to 1,250 pounds. The main available Block 1 warhead is essentially a big cluster munition that can pack almost 1,000 M74 bomblets that are designed to kill and maim enemy infantry and destroy weapon systems through blast and fragmentation. 'Cluster munitions have proven extremely effective on the ground', and even the Russian military leadership is warning about the danger. An ATACMS Block 1 strike against a concentrated large Russian force could completely wipe it out and stop an offensive or counteroffensive in its tracks. In the current battlefield, Block 1 ATACMS munitions can reach almost all of Russian-occupied Ukraine. The newer Block 1A version has a similar weight but a much longer range which depends on the warhead it packs. It can either carry a cluster warhead with 300 M74 bomblets for a range of 186 miles or a unitary high explosive 350-pound warhead for a range of 168 miles. A Block 1A with a high explosive unitary warhead can take out a whole Russian command and control element or targets of similar importance in a single strike. The longer-ranged Block A1 ATACMS missiles can also reach the southern parts of the Crimean Peninsula, as well as portions of Russia. ATACMS munitions are solid-propellant fueled and have internal GPS systems to ensure pinpoint accuracy. The number of ATACMS munitions the U.S. will send to Ukraine will firstly depend on the number of deliveries. If the U.S. is tilting toward one big delivery, then the number of munitions might be smaller compared to a scenario in which the Pentagon sends several waves of ATACMS over the next months. Another consideration is the status of Ukraine’s artillery arsenal. Ukraine is going through several thousand artillery shells – particularly 155mm rounds – daily and between 150,000 and 200,000 a month. Even though the Pentagon alone has sent Kyiv more than two million 155mm shells, the U.S. and the West are having a very hard time meeting the Ukrainian artillery’s needs. Sending ATACMS munitions would slightly ease the need to send seemingly inexhaustible batches of rounds to Ukraine. The ATACMS can be fired by either the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) or the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS). The Ukrainian military has used both the M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS in the war, taking out a considerable amount of Russian logistical nodes, fortified positions, troop concentrations, important infrastructure, and high-value targets. ATACMS could change the war. The Ukrainian military could use ATACMS against high-value targets that are also within range of its 155mm guns. The potential delivery of ATACMS to the Ukrainian military would enable additional deep strikes against the faltering Russian logistical system and other strategic targets. (Source: thenationalinterest)

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