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Egyik 19

Magyarországról, utódállami területekről, Európáról, Európai Unióról, további földrészekről, globalizációról, űrről

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2020. XI. 11-13. Hungary, Great Britain, Russia, Ukraine, European Union, Nigeria, Nagorno-Karabakh, United States, globalization

2020.11.13. 18:28 Eleve

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Hungary
11-Nov-2020  Something is finally happening although it's very late and the government should have avoided so many infections. The government had resisted imposing tighter regulations,despite growing criticism, to minimise the damage to the country's economy. During the first wave of the pandemic, output shrank by 13 per cent. In the face of spiralling infection rates from COVID-19 with more than 5,000 new cases of Coronavirus a day the Hungarian government has introduced tough new regulations which come into force from midnight today. Hungary had tried to keep life as normal as possible for its citizens. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said: "Our hospitals won't be able to manage the situation if the number of those infected grows at such a rapid rate. Therefore we have to reduce the number of those getting sick. Wearing a mask is not enough. We need to introduce new measures to slow the epidemic." There will be a nationwide curfew from 8pm to 5am unless people are going to and from work or under exceptional circumstances. Restaurants have been told to close though take-away meals will still be allowed. In education only children of 14 and below will continue to attend school and kindergarten while older students and those at university will revert to teaching online. The new legislation also promised weekly COVID-19 testing for medical professionals as well as teachers and all those who worked in junior schools and kindergartens. Also affected will be gyms and other exercise centres which have been ordered to shut and many outlets in the service sector, including hairdressing salons which must shut by 7pm. The change in tack was welcomed by the mayor of Budapest where more than a quarter of all infections have been traced but he also said the tougher rules should have been brought in weeks ago. (Source: ChinaGlobalTelevisionNetwork)

Great Britain
06/11/2020  Muslim Brotherhood hopeful for a new Obama era, very enthusiastic about the Democratic candidate Biden's progress in US election results. Pro-Muslim Brotherhood activists and media professionals in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and the Gulf states did not hide their prayers for a Biden victory. It was as if Biden was the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate and not the candidate of the American Democrats. They are hoping for US pressure to be exerted on Cairo to release Brotherhood leaders convicted in court cases related to terrorism and conspiracy against Egypt's security, as well as for pressure on the Arab quartet countries to lift their boycott of Qatar and restore relations with it. American Islamic associations, such as the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA) and the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), which are associated with the Muslim Brotherhood or are seen as close to it, promoted Biden’s candidacy among Americans and participated in his election campaign at state and national levels. In the era of former President Obama they played a remarkable role riding the wave of the “Arab spring” uprisings. They are eyeing such as obtaining of advisory roles, sealing their influence within the Muslim community, and lifting the authorities’ constant monitoring of their propaganda and financial activities. They are also betting on making gains for the mother organisation and its branches outside the United States. The Brotherhood’s first objective will be to enrol his administration to put pressure on Egypt and especially on President Sisi, whom they’ve never stopped maligning. They will also seek to have the restrictions on Hamas lifted and to facilitate the militant organisation's access to donations and funds collected by the Brotherhood and its various affiliates for the benefit of the Islamist Palestinian organisation that the US had classified as a terrorist organisation. The Iranian media as well, and the pro-Tehran media in the Middle East seemed enthused by the results of the democratic candidate. Obama had worked during two presidential terms on the international rehabilitation of Iran and allowed it to enjoy the benefits of a favourable nuclear agreement that lifted the sanctions against it and gave it access to its frozen funds so that it would invest them in regional interventions threatening the security of the Gulf and the Middle East. Obama is accused of facilitating Iran's entry into Syria and of giving free hand to its allied militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Their confidence in the benefits of a Biden victory seems exaggerated. Biden's priorities will be to focus on the situation within the US and make arrangements in light of the emerging balances in the US House of Representatives and the Senate. He will strive to reassure the American public about the seriousness of the social reforms he intends to introduce before sailing the waters of the Middle East which is not the most urgent place for work on repairing US alliances, compared to Europe and Asia. But major changes must be evaluated in the region. President Sisi, for example, has become an active actor in making arrangements in many issues related to the region, such as the Libyan or Palestinian or Sudanese files, or even in the new peace path between Israel and the Arab Gulf region. The start in the region of a momentum of peace agreements with Israel may expand to include more Gulf countries in the foreseeable future. (Source: thearabweekly)*
*Note: Edited in London

Russia
November 13, 2020 Russia will move on domestic vaccine and will already start exporting the vaccine in the first half of 2021. Sputnik V’s clinical Phase III trials are half way through and no major problems with Sputnik have been thrown up yet. About half of the 40,000 volunteers in the trial have been given both shots to no major ill-effect. And the day after Pfizer’s announcement, the producers released preliminary results that show Sputnik V has a 92% efficacy. By the end of this year producers are ready to supply 5-6mn doses per month and by spring officials report that will go up to 15mn per month: enough to vaccinate all Russians over the age of 60 in two months. The estimate for 5-6mn doses a month is already down on earlier predictions that 10mn doses would be produced by Christmas and the 15mn doses a month that could be produced in the first half of next year is half the earlier forecasts. Last month, the RDIF said that it is currently investing into production facilities and will be able to produce 30mn doses by the end of this year and up to 200mn doses a year starting in 2021, but clearly it is not going as fast as the sovereign wealth fund had hoped for. The updated forecast of RDIF is 7-10mn doses of vaccine in December-January – and even this estimate is in doubt. Dmitriev, the CEO of the sovereign wealth fund, the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) that financed much of the Sputnik V research, says he thinks Russia will control about a third of the eventual 3bn-5bn dose market. If that is true, then coronavirus vaccine exports will earn Russia as much as it gets from exporting grain or arms – and Russia is a global leader in both those export categories. Russia, given its prowess in the other sciences it certainly has the intellectual capital that could produce a working vaccine. The Pfizer vaccine needs to be kept very cold; the extreme cold storage will also make the drug a lot more expensive. And for countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan driving vaccine doses around their huge countries that have to be kept at -70C is a non-starter. The Russian version can be kept at room temperature. Russian investment bank BCS Global Markets estimates that possible pricing of the vaccine for sales abroad could vary at about $4-14 per dose. Planned vaccine prices by foreign pharma majors’ leading candidates: Moderna $25-30/dose, Pfizer/ BioNTtech $19.5 and AstraZeneca $3-4. Russia is also well ahead on the marketing and sales. In August almost immediately after Sputnik V was registered, the producers signed a deal with Kazakhstan to supply several million doses as soon as clinical trials were over. Uzbekistan has also signed a deal with Russia for 30mn doses, as have several BRIC countries. In all, some 50 countries have reportedly signed some sort of deal with Russia to buy its vaccine. The India potential contract is for 100mn doses as well as LatAm countries and as well as Russia’s regional neighbours. The Kremlin will package sales of vaccine doses together with other things like energy and politics to make up an offer that appeals to countries like these that a commercial entity like Pfizer can’t match. These named deals add up to something around $500mn, which is half of the RDIF’s Dmitriev’s guess that Russia could take $1bn of the total $3bn-$5bn market. (Source: intellinews)

Ukraine
2020-11-12  On 6 November, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, announced during the presentation of the results of the economic audit of Ukraine that 5 million hectares of agricultural land had disappeared from state ownership. Most of the state’s agricultural land had been illegally privatised. According to the State Service of Ukraine for Geodesy, Cartography and Cadastr (SCS)’s calculations, since the transfer of approx. 4 million hectares of land to local governments as a result of the decentralisation reform in 2018–2020, the state currently owns only 750 thousand hectares of agricultural land instead of the declared 6.4 million hectares. The missing land, more than 5 million hectares (over 50,000 km², 8% of the country’s territory) has been illegally privatised as a result of a process that was underway for over a decade and involved the transfer of small plots of up to two hectares to private owners. The SCS is in charge of land registration (including agricultural land) and until recently was known as one of the most corrupt institutions in Ukraine. The register lacks information on over 5 million  hectares privatised before 2013. Uncontrolled access to the register was granted to third parties who could make any modifications to it, e.g. change the intended use of the plot. Representatives of regional elites in individual oblasts were also involved in this illegal scheme. Currently, full control over the register has been restored, and work on the preparation of an aerial map of the entire country has been announced. The process of granting the land was completely non-transparent and depended on the decisions of the SCS officials at the central level and in its regional branches. Plots of land with a good location were privatised, e.g. around Kyiv or in the coastal belt of the Odessa Oblast, and then their intended use was changed from agricultural to construction. This also applied to areas rich in natural resources (e.g. gas, titanium ores or amber). In 2013–2020, 700,000 hectares were allegedly granted to citizens this way. The information has not provoked any major political storm. This may indicate that most members of the Ukrainian political establishment were involved in this illegal land privatisation scheme, including representatives of most opposition parties. (Source: CentreforEasternStudies)

European Union
November 11, 2020 The European Commission has reached an agreement with Pfizer and BioNTech for up to 300 million doses of their coronavirus vaccine. Under the deal, the 27 countries in the European Union could purchase 200 million doses, with an option to buy 100 million more. The vaccine will not be available until the European Medicines Agency deems it to be safe and effective. The EU has also struck deals with Johnson & Johnson, Sanofi, and AstraZeneca for their COVID-19 vaccines that are still in the testing phase. The EU is negotiating with Moderna, CureVac, and Novavax to buy their vaccines. (Source: TheWashingtonExaminer)

Nigeria
Nov 13, 2020 One-third of Nigerians drink contaminated water while 46 million people still practise open defecation, a report titled "Water, Sanitation, Hygiene National Outcome Routine  Mapping 2019" by the United Nations Children's Fund and the Federal Ministry of Water Resources released last week has shown. The average amount of water each person receives in Nigeria is  9 litres per day. The minimum acceptable range is between 12 and 16 litres per day. The report which points out that at least 167 million homes do not have access to handwashing facilities, was done in collaboration with the National Bureau of Statistics and was completed just before the outbreak of the COVID-19 in March. The Ministry of Water Resources would to ensure that safe and potable water is made available to all citizens. According to the federal 2020 budget, the ministry is allocated more than N37 billion to handle its capital projects nationwide. In 2019, the Nigerian government began a campaign to end open defecation and promised that it was committed to ending the practice by 2025. (Source: SaharaReporters)

Nagorno-Karabakh
November 11, 2020  The South Caucasus is an historic sphere of influence for Moscow. The bloody six-week war waged for Nagorno-Karabakh has ended with a stark defeat for Armenia. The Armenian military has lost about 100 main battle tanks, some 50 armoured combat vehicles and personnel carriers, about 70 howitzers, 60 multiple launch rocket systems, about 20 air defence systems and more than 400 trucks since September 27. The Armenian army has lost nearly 35% of its inventory in terms of tanks, artillery and trucks. As for the death toll, local sources put Armenia’s losses at up to 5,000, or around 10% its standing army. When the war broke out, the Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh forces appeared to be in a wretched condition. Karabakh Armenian leader Harutyunan, in explaining to hetq.am why the Armenian side basically capitulated, said that predecessors were guilty of failures, observing: “The moral-psychological condition of the army was extremely poor, there were illnesses (coronavirus, haemorrhoids, dysentery) we were unable to rotate troops, treat the sick. Nonetheless our armed forces were able to resist for 43 days." Azerbaijan is far superior to Armenia in terms of its defence budget and military personnel. In 2019, Baku had a defence budget of $1.8bn and a 60,000-strong army. Armenia’s defence budget extended to $644mn and 44,000 troops. Baku prepared for the war by buying extensive amounts of Turkish and Israeli military hardware. The Azerbaijani forces have lost 20 tanks, about 10 howitzers and multiple launch rocket systems, nearly 50 trucks and about 20 drones. It has lost about 1,200 men, but that’s according to official statements (death toll was much higher). By Moscow's assessment, Pashinyan's way of handling the conflict and relations with Baku have been extremely risky since 2018, leaving Russia with increasingly fewer options to prevent a military scenario. As the war resumed, it had left Moscow with few good options. Moments after the agreement to end the war was announced, angry crowds began searching for Pashinian around Yerevan. He was forced to issue a statement denying he had fled the country. The Russian peacekeeping force comprises of 1,960 troops, 90 armoured vehicles, 380 other vehicles and special equipment. It is deploying along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory of 12,000 square kilometres, and along the so-called Lachin Corridor, the main road from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. It has a five-year mandate that is automatically renewable if neither side objects six months in advance. The deal consolidates major battlefield gains by Azerbaijan’s forces and will leave Baku in control of about 40% of Nagorno-Karabakh itself, as well as nearly all of the surrounding occupied territories long held by Armenian forces. Before the conflict, Armenian-backed forces controlled the whole of Nagorno-Karabakh, plus parts of the seven surrounding districts. Collectively, these territories amounted to around 13% of Azerbaijan. The fighting appeared brutal at times, with indiscriminate shelling of civilians in both Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan. Two weeks ago, Russia  estimated 5,000 dead. It would not be a surprise if the final grim tally is far higher than that, with hundreds of civilians dead. There is also the question of how many of the around 100,000 ethnic Armenians who were displaced by the war will want to, and will be able to, return to their homes. The future for Stepanakert looks dim. Russia has a security pact with Armenia - though admittedly it does not extend to protecting self-proclaimed republic Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan despite nearly three decades of ethnic Armenian control. Moscow never looked like coming to the small, impoverished nation’s assistance against the technologically much superior armed forces of hydrocarbon-rich Azerbaijan. Russia also has amicable relations with Baku and if it had truly set its face against Azerbaijan’s military plans it could very likely have forestalled them. Now the fighting is over, Russia will attempt to keep Turkey’s new presence in the South Caucasus heavily curtailed. Russian President Putin has achieved a more than two decades-old Russian ambition of inserting Russian peacekeepers into Nagorno-Karabakh on a renewable five-year basis. Turkish troops will be limited to helping run a ceasefire monitoring centre to be set up outside the mountainous enclave. By moving to broker an end to the war when he did, Putin prevented a full Turkish-backed Azerbaijani takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh which the Armenians said was just days away (though Putin possibly had a deal with Baku and Ankara for only a partial conquering of the territory by Azerbaijan all along). Turkey is also not a signatory to the peace deal, thus once more its influence is not recognised as anything but limited. Turkey, entering a region that Russia quite clearly regards as its own backyard on its southern flank, took an obvious role in the conflict. Armenia claims this extended to providing military advisers that devised and ran the campaign, deploying many Syrian militia mercenaries and backing the offensive with great numbers of armed drones and even F-16 fighter jets. A handy gain for Ankara is that the peace deal will open up a corridor that runs from Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, which borders Turkey, through Armenia to Azerbaijan. That will have some economic significance - trade between Turkey and Azerbaijan presently often must go through Georgia. Plus it will fit in neatly with Erdogan’s ‘neo-Ottoman’ aspirations to rebuild the Turkic identity as a major power. Erdogan needs all the wins he can get right now with Turkey’s economy perched on the edge of precipice and a pervasive feeling among many Turks that it was his bungling that got it there. Around one-fifth of Iran’s population of 84mn are Iranian-Azerbaijani. Many were growing rather restive during some moments of the conflict, alleging that Tehran was on the side of Armenia. If their claims were correct, Iran was allowing Russian weapons and supplies to pass into Armenia via its territory. Iran, given its dire economic situation under heavy US sanctions, can ill afford to fall out with Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia or Turkey, trading partners one and all. It is also one year into a temporary two-year preferential trade agreement with the Moscow-led European Economic Union (EEU), which groups Russia, Armenia, Belarus and Turkic nations Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The lack of engagement by Trump in the events that have played out may also have damaged Georgia in that the West’s level of influence when it comes to its Russian-occupied territories and its ambition to join Nato may have been degraded. /map, video/ (Source: IntelliNews):

United States
13 November 2020  12:39 pm After 48 of 50 states Biden extends lead over Trump with Arizona win. A projected win in the usually Republican state takes Biden to 290 electoral college votes.    Biden Democrat 1,668,684 votes 49.4%    Trump Republican 1,657,250 votes 49.1% (Source: BBC)

13 Nov, 2020 In an all-caps tweet from the White House at 5:34 PM Nov 12, 2020, Trump has sensationally claimed that 2.7 million votes cast for him in the election last week have been "deleted" by the Canadian company's Dominion electronic voting system. Citing a report by news channel One America News Network (OANN), he claimed that under the system 221,000 Pennsylvania votes switched from Trump to Biden and that 941,000 Trump votes were deleted in that state alone, and states using the named system switched 435,000 votes from Trump to Biden. Dominion is one of three major companies that makes software for local governments in the US to help run their elections. In last week's vote, its software was used in multiple states where fraud has been alleged - including Michigan and Georgia, and in North Carolina and Nevada where election results are being challenged. The software has been rolled out across the US in recent years, but it has been opposed in some states. Texas, for example, has refused to use it three times saying it failed to meet basic security standards. While there is no proof for the claims on the scale the President is talking about, there have been some issues with software "glitches". Voting officials in Michigan confirmed a software glitch initially gave roughly 5000 votes cast for Trump to Biden in Antrim County, sparking a manual recount, extended voting hours and delayed results. The initial results were showing Biden ahead by roughly 3000 votes. The correct tallies showed Trump beat Biden by roughly 2500 votes in the county. In a statement, state officials said the software on the machines was not updated properly - meaning the votes were counted accurately by the machines but the results they showed were incorrect. In Georgia, early morning voting on Election Day was halted temporarily in Morgan and Spalding counties when Dominion machines were involved in a problem involving electronic poll books made by a subcontractor. Technicians resolved the issue, and Trump easily carried both counties. In Oakland County, Michigan, election officials also spotted an error after they first reported the unofficial counts. The Michigan Department of State said they realised they had mistakenly counted votes from the city of Rochester Hills, Michigan twice. Dominion has also found itself in trouble with several subsidiaries it used over alleged cases of fraud in overseas elections. One subsidiary is Smartmatic, a company that has played a significant role in the US market over the last decade. Litigation over Smartmatic "glitches" alleges it had an impact on the 2010 and 2013 midterm elections in the Philippines, raising questions of electoral fraud. An independent review of the machines found serious problems. Dominion is saying in a detailed response on its website that categorically denies any claims about any vote switching or alleged software issues with its voting systems. Trump's claim that 2.7 million votes had been stolen from him by the machines, remains unsubstantiated. Fact-checking website Politifact said the claim was based on an OANN report that stated it had "unaudited analysis of data obtained from Edison Research". The company said it has not found data that back up OANN's report or Trump's tweet. On its website, the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency says bad actors would not be able to change vote counts undetected even if they tried. (Source: NZHerald)

Globalization
November 12, 2020  Measles is entirely preventable; in a time in which we have a powerful, safe and cost-effective vaccine nobody should still be dying of this disease. Measles cases reached the highest level in 23 years in 2019 and health authorities warned that many countries aren’t vaccinating enough people amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The global total  for confirmed measles infections rose to 869,770 last year. The number of deaths soared by 50% compared with a low reached in 2016. The percentage of people who have received a first measles shot has stagnated in recent years halting immunization campaigns, putting 94 million people at risk. Nine countries represented 73% of all cases, with large outbreaks occurring in Congo, Madagascar, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. The airborne disease caused 207,500 deaths last year. This year, the number of measles cases has dropped, mirroring declines in other infectious diseases. The precautions people take against Covid-19 are also effective in reducing the spread of viruses in general. (Source: Bloomberg)

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