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Egyik 19

Magyarországról, utódállami területekről, Európáról, Európai Unióról, további földrészekről, globalizációról, űrről

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2015. XI. 11 - 20. Sun, Earth: II. Stronger solar flares, geomagnetic storms, quakes, volcano activity.

2015.11.11. 23:56 Eleve

.

Sun, Earth

/ Danube

Time data regarding the occurence of M-class or stronger solar flares, Kp= 5-level or greater geomagnetic storm activity, big or slow solar wind speed, etc. Quakes, possibly about some volcano activity.

 

2015/11/20

SUN:
New sunspot region on the East, number 2457 continues to rotate onto the disk. 
Today solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.
SPACE:
Solar wind speeds steadily decreased from about 420 km/s to around 365 km/s
until 17:00 UT when slowly increased;  
end-of-day values were near 415 km/s.
Today Bz was primarily northward, the phi angle was mostly in a negative (toward the Sun) solar sector orientation.
EARTH:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
(Update -): At 06:05 UT Copahue volcano Central Chile - Argentina border (elevation: 2953 m): crater incandescence, small explosions, continuous emissions of water vapor and gas.
Asosan volcano Kyushu, Japan (elevation: 1592 m): see also the 18 November situation.
Awu volcano Sangihe Islands, Indonesia (elevation: 1320 m): see also the 18 November and 24 November situation.
Colima volcano Mexico (elevation: 3850 m): see the 18 November situation.
Cotopaxi volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5911 m): see the 19 November situation.
Dukono volcano Halmahera, Indonesia (elevation: 1335 m): see the 18 November situation.
Karymsky volcano Eastern Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 1513 m): see the 18 November situation.
Kilauea volcano, Hawaiian Islands, USA (elevation: 1222 m):  see the 18 November situation.
Reventador volcano Ecuador (elevation: 3562 m): steam, gas, and ash emissions rose 500 m above the crater and drifted west. See also the 18 November situation.
Rinjani volcano Lombok Island, Indonesia (elevation: 3726 m): see the 19 November situation.
Sheveluch volcano Central Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 3283 m ): see the 18 November situation.
Tungurahua volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5023 m): high volcano-tectonic activity characterized by long-period events, explosions, signals of emissions. Ash-and-gas emissions rose as high as 3 km above the crater and drifted south-west, west and north-west. Ashfalls in areas including at a distance of 13 km west-southwest, 25 km west, 23 km north-west ( - updated).

2015/11/19

SUN:
Solar activity was very low. No Earth directed coronal mass ejection was observed.
SPACE:
00:00-00:30 UT: solar wind speed reached a maximum velocity of about 500-530 km/s and started to decrease.
throughout most of the period of 00:00-12:00 UT the phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun);
01:45-04:25 UT: a brief phi angle rotation into the positive (away from Sun) sector.
SPACE:
around 07:30 UT  Bz reached a southward deflection of -6 nT.
today the phi angle generally was in a negative (toward the Sun) solar sector orientation. Solar wind speeds reflected waning CME effects, weak negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence, and slowly decreased from about 520 km/s to around 370 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz was mostly northward.
EARTH:
Early in this day the geomagnetic field was active;
through the remainder of the day it was quiet to unsettled.
20:05 UT: an M5.5 quake occured at a distance of 91 km south-souteast from Chichi-shima, Japan; 1071 km south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan. See also: the Philippine Sea and vicinity.
Asosan volcano Kyushu, Japan (elevation: 1592 m):
see also the 18 November situation.
Awu volcano Sangihe Islands, Indonesia (elevation: 1320 m): see also the 18 November and 24 November situation.
Chirpoi volcano Kuril Islands, Russia (elevation: 742 m): thermal anomaly detected  over Snow, a volcano of Chirpoi.
Colima volcano Mexico (elevation: 3850 m): see the 18 November situation.
Cotopaxi volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5911 m): gas, steam, and ash plumes rose as high as 1.5 km above the crater, and drifted west and south-west.
Dukono volcano Halmahera, Indonesia (elevation: 1335 m): see the 18 November situation.
Karymsky volcano Eastern Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 1513 m): see the 18 November situation.
Kilauea volcano, Hawaiian Islands, USA (elevation: 1222 m):  see the 18 November situation.
Lokon-Empung volcano Sulawesi, Indonesia (elevation: 1580 m): see the 18 November situation.
Reventador volcano Ecuador (elevation: 3562 m): see the 18 November situation.
Rinjani volcano Lombok Island, Indonesia (elevation: 3726 m): ash plumes from Rinjani rose to altitudes of 3-4.3 km and drifted as far as 95 km south-west, west-northwest and west.
Sheveluch volcano Central Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 3283 m ): see the 18 November situation.
Soputan volcano Sulawesi, Indonesia (elevation: 1784 m): white plumes were rising as high as 200 m above. Low-frequency emission and avalanche signals of volcanic earthquakes. People were advised not to approach the craters within a radius of 2 km on the west-southwest flank.
Tungurahua volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5023 m): see the 18 November situation.
22:30 UT: Copahue volcano Central Chile - Argentina border (elevation: 2953 m): tremor amplitude began to oscillate.

2015/11/18

Prediction from 17 November:
SPACE, EARTH:
around noon:
a glancing blow or shock arrival from the 16/01:14 UT  CME can be expected.
EARTH:
18:31 UT: M7.0 quake occured at a distance of 118 km south-west from Dadali, Solomon Islands; 436 km south-east of Arawa, Papua New Guinea. See also: the New Guinea region and vicinity.
SUN:
Solar activity was low. No Earth directed CMEs were recorded. A new region is turning over the Nnorth-eastern limb.
SPACE:
19:23 UT:
a shock is observed; the total interplanetary magnetic field reached 13 nT;
19:30 UT:
the maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT, indicating a likely shock passage from the anticipated CME of 15-16 November;
20:37 UT:
solar wind peak speed: 491 km/s due to the effect of the negative polarity recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
21:00-24:00 UT: minor (G1) geomagnetic storm (Kp = 5)
EARTH:
Geomagnetic field: quiet to unsettled.
Asosan volcano Kyushu, Japan (elevation: 1592 m):
white plumes rose 400-500 m above the rim of Asosan’s Nakadake Crater.
Awu volcano Sangihe Islands, Indonesia (elevation: 1320 m):
significant increase in the number of shallow volcanic earthquakes from a baseline maximum of 4 events per day.
Colima volcano Mexico (elevation: 3850 m):
ash plumes rose to altitudes of 4.9 - 7 km and drifted north-west, west, and south-west.
Cotopaxi volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5911 m):
gas, steam, and ash plumes rose as high as 1.5 km above the crater, and drifted west and south-west. Ashfall.
Dukono volcano Halmahera, Indonesia (elevation: 1335 m):
ash plumes rose to an altitude of 2.4 km and drifted 55-165 km in multiple directions.
Karangetang volcano Siau Island, Indonesia (elevation: 1784 m):
the lava dome was incandescent at night. Variable amounts of white emissions rose as high as 200 m above main cater.
Karymsky volcano Eastern Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 1513 m):
moderate explosive activity continued.
Kilauea volcano, Hawaiian Islands, USA (elevation: 1222 m):
the lava lake continued to circulate and spatter in the Overlook vent. The northeast-trending lava flow continued to be active within 1.9-6.1 km of Pu'u 'O'o crater.
Lokon-Empung volcano Sulawesi, Indonesia (elevation: 1580 m):
white plumes rising as high as 400 m above the crater. Seismicity fluctuated, but in a gradually increasing trend. People were reminded not to approach the crater within a radius of 2.5 km.
Reventador volcano Ecuador (elevation: 3562 m):
high level of seismic activity - explosions, volcano-tectonic events, long-period earthquakes, harmonic tremor - and signals indicating emissions.
Rinjani volcano Lombok Island, Indonesia (elevation: 3726 m):
ash plumes from Rinjani rose to altitudes of 3-4.3 km and drifted as far as 95 km south-west, west-northwest and west. Thermal anomaly; the activity had continued to decline.
Sheveluch volcano Central Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 3283 m ):
lava-dome extrusion onto its northern flank was accompanied by fumarolic activity, dome incandescence, ash explosions, hot avalanches. Daily thermal anomaly over the dome.
Tungurahua volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5023 m):
high volcano-tectonic activity characterized by long-period events, explosions, signals of emissions. Ash-and-gas emissions rose as high as 3 km above the crater and drifted south-west, west and north-west. Ashfalls in areas including a distance of 13 km west-southwest, 25 km west, 23 km north-west. Incandescent blocks rolled 500 m down the flanks.

2015/11/17

EARTH:
07:10 UT: an M6.5 quake occured at a distance of 14 km west-northwest from Nidri, Greece; 289 km (west-northwest of Athens, Greece. See also: the Mediterranean region and vicinity.
17:29 UT: an M5.5 quake occured at a distance of -27 km west-northwest from of Gul'cha, Kyrgyzstan; 302 km south-southwest of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. See also: the Himalaya and vicinity.
SUN:
Solar activity was low. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed.
SPACE:
For the majority of the day the phi angle was positive (away from Sun),
until approximately 19:40 UT when it rotated into the negative (towards the Sun) sector, where it remained for the rest.
Solar wind speeds were relatively steady between 360-380 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was variable but predominantly in a southward orientation.
EARTH:
Today the geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels 
Prediction for 18 November:
EARTH:
tomorrow, around noon: a minor glancing blow or shock arrival from the 16/01:14 UT  CME can be expected, when a combination of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream and the anticipated arrival of the 16 November CME will enhance solar wind conditions with possibly active geomagnetic conditions or minor geomagnetic storms. (The double filament eruption of late 15 November produced a double CME towards the South West).
Colima volcano Mexico (elevation: 3850 m): see the 11 November situation.
Cotopaxi volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5911 m): see the 11 November situation.
Dukono volcano Halmahera Indonesia (elevation: 1335 m): see the 11 November situation.
Fuego volcano Guatemala (elevation: 3763 m): see the 15 November situation.
Kilauea volcano Hawaiian Islands, USA (elevation: 1222 m): see the 11 November situation.
Nevado del Ruiz volcano Colombia (elevation: 5279 m): A gas, steam, and ash plume rose 2 km and drifted north-west and south-west.
Popocatepetl volcano Mexico (elevation: 5426 m): Ash plumes rose 2 km and incandescent material was deposited on the flanks within 1 km of the crater. See also the 11 November situation.
Tungurahua volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5023 m): See the 11 November situation.
Ubinas volcano Peru (elevation: 5672 m): thermal anomalies were detected.

2015/11/16

SUN:
Today
solar activity was very low.
EARTH:

00:00-03:00 UT: the geomagnetic field had an isolated active interval, due to a prolonged period of southward Bz orientation of the solar winds.
00:39 UT: an M5.8 quake occured at a distance of 169 km south-southwest from George Town, Cayman Islands; 422 km westof Montego Bay, Jamaica; 450 km north-northeast of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. See also: the Caribbean region and vicinity.
SUN:
01:14 UT: an approximate 19 degree long filament was observed lifting off. An Earth-directed component is probable.
SPACE:
around 04:45 UT the Bz component of the magnetic field had a maximum deflection of -7 nT; it was predominantly southward.
15:25 UT: the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3129 pfu.
EARTH:
16:49 UT: an M5.8 quake occured at a distance of 297 km south-southwest from Severo-Kuril'sk, Russia; 1842 km noth-east of Tokyo, Japan. See also: the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc.
Today the geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled; at active levels for 3 hours.
SPACE:
Solar wind speeds were in gradual decline, decreasing from 390 km/s to around 370 km/s. Phi was in the positive (away) sector. The Bz component of interplanetary magnetic field mostly stayed negative up to around -6 nT.
Colima volcano Mexico (elevation: 3850 m): see the 11 November situation.
Cotopaxi volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5911 m): see the 11 November situation.
Dukono volcano Halmahera Indonesia (elevation: 1335 m): see the 11 November situation.
Fuego volcano Guatemala (elevation: 3763 m): see the 15 November situation.
Kilauea volcano Hawaiian Islands, USA (elevation: 1222 m): see the 11 November situation.
Nevado del Ruiz volcano Colombia (elevation: 5279 m): see the 11 November situation.
Popocatepetl volcano Mexico (elevation: 5426 m): 88 daily  seismic emissions.
Shishaldin volcano Fox Islands, USA (elevation: 2857 m): see the 11 November situation.
Sinabung volcano Indonesia (elevation: 2460 m):  see the 15 November situation.
Tungurahua volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5023 m): see the 11 November situation.
Ubinas volcano Peru (elevation: 5672 m): see the 11 November situation.

2015/11/15:

SPACE:
14:55 UT: the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 2,087 pfu.
since around 18:00 UT t
he Bz component was negative, dipping to -7 nT.
SUN:

Solar activity was very low.
20:48 UT: a coronal mass ejection (CME) lifted off the west limb.
around 21:14 UT: an approximate 21 degree long filament eruption occurred in the south-western quadrant. An Earth-directed component is probable.
22:09 UT: the southern extent of a filament structure located near disk center began lifting off. A lack of coronal eruptions on the visible disk suggests that the CME is associated with far-sided activity.
SPACE:
Towards the end of the day Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT. The phi angle remained steady in positive (away from the Sun) solar sector configuration.
Today solar wind speeds declined; varied between 380-410 km/s.
EARTH:
Today the geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
Chirpoi volcano Kuril Islands, Russia (elevation: 742 m): see the 11 November situation.
Colima volcano Mexico (elevation: 3850 m): see the 11 November situation.
Cotopaxi volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5911 m): see the 11 November situation.
Dukono volcano Halmahera Indonesia (elevation: 1335 m): see the 11 November situation.
Kilauea volcano Hawaiian Islands, USA (elevation: 1222 m): see the 11 November situation.
Nevado del Ruiz volcano Colombia (elevation: 5279 m): see the 11 November situation.
Popocatepetl volcano Mexico (elevation: 5426 m): See the 11 November situation.
Rinjani volcano, Lombok Island, Indonesia (elevation: 3726 m): ash plumes rose to altitudes of 3.7-4.3 km and drifted as far as 240 km north-west, west and south-west.
Shishaldin volcano Fox Islands, USA (elevation: 2857 m): see the 11 November situation.
Sinabung volcano Indonesia (elevation: 2460 m): ash plumes rose to an altitude of 3.7 km and drifted sout-west and east.
Tungurahua volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5023 m): incandescent blocks rolled 1 km down the flanks. See also the 11 November situation.
Ubinas volcano Peru (elevation: 5672 m): see the 11 November situation.

2015/11/14:

SUN:
Solar activity was very low. New Region 2455 was numbered. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.
SPACE:
between 11:20 - 20:40 UT the phi angle transitioned from positive (away) to a negative (toward) solar sector orientation.
at 14:15 UT the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,730 pfu.
Today solar wind speeds were  moderate, declining slowly, from 520 km/s to 420 km/s. Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT.
EARTH:
through the night
the slightly enhanced geo-activity continued.
19:20 UT: M5.7 quake occured at a distance of 128 km west-southwest from Kushikino, Japan; 704 km south-southeast of Seoul, South Korea. See also: the Philippine Sea and vicinity.
Today the geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
Chirpoi volcano Kuril Islands, Russia (elevation: 742 m): steam-and-gas emissions were also observed.
Colima volcano Mexico (elevation: 3850 m): see the 11 November situation.
Cotopaxi volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5911 m): see the 11 November situation.
Dukono volcano Halmahera Indonesia (elevation: 1335 m): see the 11 November situation.
Fuego volcano Guatemala (elevation: 3763 m): see the 11 November situation.
Kilauea volcano Hawaiian Islands, USA (elevation: 1222 m): see the 11 November situation.
Nevado del Ruiz volcano Colombia (elevation: 5279 m): see also the 11 November situation. A gas, steam, and ash plume rose 2 km and drifted north-west and south-west.
Popocatepetl volcano Mexico (elevation: 5426 m): 102 daily  seismic emissions.
Rinjani volcano, Lombok Island, Indonesia (elevation: 3726 m): ash plumes rose as high as 1.6 km and drifted west-southwest; ashfall was reported in some villages downwind.
Shishaldin volcano Fox Islands, USA (elevation: 2857 m): see the 11 November situation.
Tungurahua volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5023 m): incandescent blocks rolled 500 m down the flanks. See also the 11 November situation.
Ubinas volcano Peru (elevation: 5672 m): ash plumes rose 600 m.

2015/11/13

SUN:
The solar activity was low.
No Earth directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.
New sunspot region 2454 was numbered.
SPACE:

05 45 UT: the Bz component of the IMF shifted to a predominantly negative (towards) sector.
06:00-12:00 UT: some variability of the phi angle, which was generally positive (away from the Sun).
EARTH:
06:04 UT: an  M5.8 quake occured at a distance of 38 km north from Quilino, Argentina; 705 km east-northeast of Santiago, Chile. See also: South America, Nazca Plate region.
Forecasted from 23 October 2015:
around 06:19 UT
a mysterious piece of space debris called WT1190F is expected to enter Earth’s atmosphere near Sri Lanka. The object is believed to be a discarded rocket body and will likely enter from above the Indian Ocean. (Source: SpaceSituationalAvareness): http://tinyurl.com/ppyhupe
SPACE:
Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from 400 km/s to 350 km/s until
around 08:00 UT
when speeds slowly increased to end-of-period values near 490 km/s, due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
10:23 UT: the Bz component of the IMF was primarily southward and reached a maximum negative deviation of nearly -6 nT. 
1
3:00-15:00 UT: IMF total field strength values reached 11 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT.
13:55 UT: the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate storm levels, with a peak flux of  88,813 pfu observed until mid-period when the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) caused a decrease to moderate flux levels.
EARTH:

15:00-18:00 UT
: the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS caused active geomagnetic field conditions.
20:51 UT: M6.7 quake occured at a distance of 144 km west-southwest of Makurazaki, Japan; 748 km south-south-east of Seoul, South Korea. See also: the Philippine Sea and vicinity. 
Colima volcano Mexico (elevation: 3850 m):
see the 11 November situation.
Cotopaxi volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5911 m):
see the 11 November situation.
Karymsky volcano Eastern Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 1513 m):
see the 12 November situation.
Kilauea volcano Hawaiian Islands, USA (elevation: 1222 m): s
ee the 11 November situation.
Nevado del Ruiz volcano Colombia (elevation: 5279 m):
see the 11 November situation.
Popocatepetl volcano Mexico (elevation: 5426 m):
see the 11 November situation.
Rinjani volcano, Lombok Island, Indonesia (elevation: 3726 m):
see the 11 November situation.
Sheveluch volcano Central Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 3283 m):
see the 11 November situation.
Shishaldin volcano Fox Islands, USA (elevation: 2857 m):
see the 11 November situation.
Tungurahua volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5023 m):
see the 11 November situation.
Ubinas volcano Peru (elevation: 5672 m): an ash plume rose 1.5 km above the crater floor and drifted south and south-west.
Yasur volcano, Vanuatu (elevation: 361 m):
its activity had increased with more intense explosions.

2015/11/12

SUN:
Active sunspot region number 2452 rotated into view.
SPACE, EARTH:
Forecast from 10 November:
around early 12 November an equatorial coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective around the same time as the 9 November CME arrival, keeping the solar wind speed elevated until around 13 November. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) is anticipated.of yet, the expected effects from the 9 Nov CME have not materialized.
until 06:45 UT
the phi angle was predominantly positive (away) when it oscillated into a negative (towards) sector.
at 11:30 UT the phi angle shifted back positive again.
17:35 UT The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 30,200 pfu.
Today wind speeds were in gradual decline: from around 600 km/s to near 400 km/s.
The phi angle was primarily positive (away) most of the period.
SUN:
The solar activity was low.
A new sunspot region emerged and got the number 2453.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.
A large, relatively stable curve-shaped filament is observed with its proximity to two negative polarity coronal holes and newly developed sunspot region 2453.
EARTH:
Geomagnetic field conditions were at quiet levels.
The minor CME impact expected on this day failed to eventuate.
Chirpoi volcano Kuril Islands, Russia (elevation: 742 m): see the 11 November situation. Steam-and-gas emissions were also observed.
Colima volcano Mexico (elevation: 3850 m): see the 11 November situation.
Cotopaxi volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5911 m): see the 11 November situation.
Dukono volcano Halmahera Indonesia (elevation: 1335 m): see the 11 November situation.
Fuego volcano Guatemala (elevation: 3763 m): see the 11 November situation.
Karymsky volcano Eastern Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 1513 m): moderate explosive activity continued.
Kilauea volcano Hawaiian Islands, USA (elevation: 1222 m): see the 11 November situation.
Lokon-Empung volcano Sulawesi, Indonesia (elevation: 1580 m): see the 11 November situation.
Nevado del Ruiz volcano Colombia (elevation: 5279 m): see the 11 November situation.
Popocatepetl volcano Mexico (elevation: 5426 m): Ash plumes rose from the crater. See also the 11 November situation.
Rinjani volcano, Lombok Island, Indonesia (elevation: 3726 m): see the 11 November situation.
Sheveluch volcano Central Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 3283 m): see the 11 November situation.
Shishaldin volcano Fox Islands, USA (elevation: 2857 m): see the 11 November situation.
Tungurahua volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5023 m): incandescent blocks rolled 500 m down the flanks. See also the 11 November situation.
Ubinas volcano Peru (elevation: 5672 m): see the 11 November situation.

2015/11/11

EARTH:
00:00-03:00 UT: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm (kp = 5).
00:26 UT: an M5.6 quake occured at a distance of 145 km south-southeast from Satawal, Micronesia;
863 km south-southeast of Hagatna, Guam. See also: the Philippine Sea and vicinity.
01:54 UT: an M6.9 quake occured at a distance of 93 km northwest of Coquimbo, Chile;
466 km north-northwest of Santiago, Chile. See also: Nazca Plate Region.
02:46 UT: an M6.9 quake occured at a distance of 98 km north-west from Coquimbo, Chile;
467 km north-northwest of Santiago, Chile. See also: Nazca Plate Region.
11:45 UT: an M5.6 quake occured at a distance of 106 km south from Bambanglipuro, Indonesia; 476 km south-east of Jakarta, Indonesia.
SPACE:
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit maintained at minor storm levels.
over the past few days a large (positive) coronal hole was currently centered and has been the source of enhanced solar wind speeds. We're currently passing out of the High Speed Stream (HSS).
EARTH:
15:00 - 18:00 UT: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm (kp = 5), possibly caused by the trailing edge of the High Speed Stream (HSS) or a glancing blow from the CME generated on 9 November, or was likely the result of enhanced solar wind speeds and a sustained period of southward Bz.
SPACE:
today the Bz component began the period in primarily a southward orientation.
after 18:52 UT the Bz component was becoming variable.
about 19 00 UT: solar wind speeds began a gradual decline.
19:15 UT: the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a peak flux of 59,508 pfu.
Today the solar wind speed has steadily declined, from about 750 km/s to around 610 km /s.
EARTH:
Forecast from 9 November:
at 20:00 UT any Earth directed component of a partial CME recorded by Cactus at 14:00 on 9 November can be expected to reach Earth.
Forecast from 10 November:
Later on 11 November and into 12 November, the 9 November CME is expected to arrive at Earth. Enhanced solar wind speeds and total magnetic field strength (Bt) are anticipated.
Forecast at noon:
around 23:00 UT this evening the 9 November CME will hit the Earth system.
23:36 UT: an M5.7 quake occured at a distance of 272 km west-northwest from Saumlaki, Indonesia; 399 km east-northeast of Dili, East Timor. See also: the New Guinea Region and vicinity.
Chirpoi volcano Kuril Islands, Russia (elevation: 742 m): thermal anomaly detected over Snow, a volcano of Chirpoi.
Colima volcano Mexico (elevation: 3850 m): ash plumes rose to altitudes of 4.3-6.3 km and drifted north-east, west and south-west.
Cotopaxi volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5911 m): gas, steam, and ash plumes rose as high as 2 km above the crater and drifted north-west, west and south-west.
Dukono volcano Halmahera, Indonesia (elevation: 1335 m): ash plumes rose to an altitude of 2.4 km and drifted 45-120 km south, south-west, west and north-west.
Fuego volcano Guatemala (elevation: 3763 m): explosions generated ash plumes that rose 450-750 m above the crater and drifted west-southwest. Ashfall was reported. Lava flows remained active in two south-eastern drainages.
Karangetang volcano Siau Island, Indonesia (elevation: 1784 m): the lava dome was incandescent at night; avalanches from lava-flow fronts traveled as far as 1.5 km east down the two drainages. Seismicity decreased, but continued to be dominated by avalanche signals. People were warned not to approach Karangetang within a 4-km radius.
Karymsky volcano Eastern Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 1513 m): ash plumes were drifting 110 km south-east. Moderate explosive activity continued.
Kilauea volcano Hawaiian Islands, USA (elevation: 1222 m): the lava lake continued to circulate and spatter in the Overlook vent. Multiple incandescent outgassing vents within Pu'u 'O'o. The north-east-trending lava flow continued to be active within 1.9-6.1 km of Pu'u 'O'o crater.
Lokon-Empung volcano Sulawesi, Indonesia (elevation: 1580 m): white plumes rising as high as 300 m above the crater. The seismic spectral amplitude showed a gradually increasing trend. People were reminded not to approach the crater within a radius of 2.5 km.
Nevado del Ruiz volcano Colombia (elevation: 5279 m): seismicity characterized by long-period earthquakes and short-duration volcanic tremor associated with gas-and-ash emissions. Significant amounts of water vapor and gas rose from the crater.
Popocatepetl volcano Mexico (elevation: 5426 m): 30-62 daily seismic emissions. Daily gas plumes drifted south-west and north-west.
Rinjani volcano, Lombok Island, Indonesia (elevation: 3726 m): dense white-and-gray plumes rose as high as 2.6 km above Barujari crater. Elevated levels of continuous tremor were detected in a declining trend. North to east-trending lava flows. A lava flow entered lake Segara Anak, causing an increase in the lake level and increased flow in the Kokok Putih river. People warned not to approach the crater within a 3-km radius.
Sheveluch volcano Central Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 3283 m): lava-dome extrusion onto Sheveluch’s northern flank was accompanied by fumarolic activity, dome incandescence, ash explosions, hot avalanches. Intense daily thermal anomaly over the dome.
Shishaldin volcano Fox Islands, USA (elevation: 2857 m): seismicity continued to be slightly elevated over background levels; low-level eruptive activity confined to the summit crater continued.
Tungurahua volcano Ecuador (elevation: 5023 m): high seismic activity, characterized by long-period events, volcano-tectonic events, explosions, signals indicating emissions. Daily ash-and-gas emissions rose as high as 4 km above the crater and drifted west and northwest. Ashfall was also reported daily, in north-western, western and south-western areas.
Ubinas volcano Peru (elevation: 5672 m): sporadic ash-and-gas emissions.

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