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November 2016. Sun, Earth: I. / by Danube

2016.11.26. 23:23 Eleve

6 11 3 23:59

.

Time data regarding the occurence of M-class or stronger solar flares, Kp5-level or greater geomagnetic storm activity, big or slow solar wind speed, etc.
Possibly about some quakes, volcano activity

I.

by Danube

 

Prediction from 08 November:
2016/11/11-12:
EARTH
a stream of solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole is expected to reach our planet, possibly sparking geomagnetic storms and high-latitude auroras when it arrives.

 

2016/11/10

Prediction from 09 November:
EARTH
active to moderate storm conditions are possible due to the expected arrival of the negative coronal hole high speed stream.
SUN
Solar flare activity was very low, with isolated background flare activity. No C flares or Earth-directed CMEs were observed on the visible disc, where only one active region existed and showed growth.  
SPACE
Through the day total field varied between 10 and 14 nT.
Until  06:00 UT
the Bz component of the IMF was oriented northward,
then
rotated southward, reaching a maximum of -12 nT.
EARTH:
12:24 UT: magnitude 5.8 quake occured in Western Indian-Antarctic ridge region (depth: 10 km),
at a distance of 3256 km south-west from Canberra, Australia; 4685 km south-west from Wellington, New Zealand; 4718 km south from Dili, Timor-Leste.
SPACE
Between 15 UT - 18 UT the geomagnetic field was with an isolated active period,
in the rest of the day was quiet to unsettled.
At 15:10 UT - with a peak flux of 1,032 pfu - the greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels,
after
returned to normal to moderate levels.
After 16:00 UT the Bz component was variable.
Phi angle was positive (away);
at 16:30 UT
a negative orientation was observed.
After 16:30 UT in the rest of the day
solar wind speed has shown a gradual rise from about 335 km/s to 440/495 km/s.
EARTH
17:35 UT: magnitude 5.6 quake occured (
depth: 546 km)  at a distance of 57 km east-northeast from Ndoi Island, Fiji; 322 km west-northwest from Haveluloto, Tonga. See also: seismotectonics of the Eastern margin of the Australia Plate.
(Update -): Copahue volcano central Chile-Argentina border (elevation: 2953 m):
  gas, steam, and ash plumes rose to altitudes of 3 km and drifted east and south-east.
Dukono volcano, Halmahera, Indonesia (elevation: 1229 m): ash plumes rose to altitudes of 3-4 km and drifted east, south-east.
Kilauea Volcano Hawaii, USA (summit elevation 1247 m): the lava lake continued to rise and fall, circulate, and spatter.
Reventador volcano, Ecuador (elevation: 3562 m): high level of seismic activity, including explosions, long-period earthquakes, harmonic tremor, and signals indicating emissions. Incandescent blocks were observed rolling as far as 1 km down the east, south-east, and south flanks. Gas, water vapor, and ash plumes rose as high as 2 km and drifted west.
Tengger caldera volcano Eastern Java, Indonesia (elevation: 2329 m): ash plumes from Bromo cone rose to an altitude of 3 km and drifted north-west, east.
Turrialba volcano, Costa Rica (elevation: 3340 m): ash plumes rose as high as 1 km above active vent and were drifted in variable directions, particularly to the west, north-east. Ashfall was reported in many areas of the Valle Central. (- updated)

 

2016/11/09

SUN

Solar activity was very low. The only one, new region, numbered 2607, was inactive.
From 01:36 UT onwards a southern coronal hole has opened - a filament eruption occurred - and a CME was observed, directed to the north-northeast; a stream of solar wind is spewing toward Earth.
Prediction:
EARTH
On November 10 and 11 active to moderate storm conditions are possible due to the expected arrival of the negative coronal hole high speed stream.
SPACE
hours later than expected was arriving a weak CME and solar wind brushed past Earth's magnetic field.
The phi angle was variable.
At 05:43 UT the total IMF strength was at 2 to 4 nT, and - probably due to the arrival of the November 5 CME - a small shock was observed; the solar wind speed increased from 300 km/s to 330 km/s,
while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field jumped from about 4nT to 7nT,
until about 05:43 UT, when increased to 7 to 9 nT as the anticipated transient may have arrived,
and the proton density jumped from about 12 to 25 particles per cc.
EARTH
As Earth passed through the CME's magnetized wake, auroras were possible from southernmost Australian regions or appeared in northern latitudes.
SPACE
to 07:00 UT the Bz component of the IMF has ranged between +7 / -7nT; it was primarily northward
until after 07:00 UT when it turned prolonged southward;
after 10:30 UT through nearly 12:30 UT total field strength decreased unsteadily and
at about 14:50 UT it was primarily northward again.
EARTH
14:50 UT a magnitude 5.9 quake occured in Papua New Guinea (depth: 454 km) at a distance of 96 km north-northwest from Kimbe. Se also: seismotectonics of the New Guinea region and vicinity.
Space
Between 16 UT - 19 UT the Bz component was again with notable sustained southward excursions;
until about 20:10 UT the total field strength decreased,
when another enhancement occurred, which reached 11 nT and
solar wind speed increased slightly from about 300 to 360 km/s.
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
(Update -): EARTH
Copahue volcano central Chile-Argentina border (elevation: 2953 m): gas, steam, and ash plumes rose to altitudes of 3 km and drifted south-east, east.
Dukono volcano, Halmahera, Indonesia (elevation: 1229 m): ash plumes rose to altitudes of 2-3 km and drifted north, north-east.
Kilauea Volcano Hawaii, USA (summit elevation 1247 m): the lava lake continued to rise and fall, circulate, and spatter.
Reventador volcano, Ecuador (elevation: 3562 m): high level of seismic activity, including explosions, long-period earthquakes, harmonic tremor, and signals indicating emissions. Incandescent blocks were rolling as far as 1 km down the east flanks.
Sabancaya volcano, Peru (elevation: 5967 m): ash plumes rose as high as 3 km and drifted 30-35 km south-east, east and north-east, producing ashfall in the villages of Valle del Colca to the north-east.
Santa Maria volcano, Guatemala (elevation: 3772 m): a 15 m wide, 1 m deep lahar triggered by rainfall descended the Cabello de Ángel drainage carrying tree trunks and blocks up to 1 m in diameter. The lahar had a minor sulfur odor.
Turrialba volcano, Costa Rica (elevation: 3340 m): ash plumes rose as high as 1 km above active vent and were drifted in variable directions, particularly to the south-west, west. (- updated)

 

2016/11/08

SUN
Solar activity was very low. No spotted regions or Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
EARTH:
00:58 UT: a magnitede 5.5 quake occured in eastern New Guinea region (depth: 60 km), at a distance of 410 km north of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.
03:09 UT: a magnitude 5.8 quake occured west of Maquarie Island, Australia (depth: 10 km) at a distance of 2641 km south-west from Wellington, New Zealand and 4242 km south from Nouméa, New Caledonia.
04:55 UT: a magnitude 6.0 earthquake occured in offshore Bio-Bio, Chile (depth: 20 km) at a distance of    425 km south-west from Santiago.
SPACE
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels  with a peak level of 2098 pfu.
Total IMF strength ranged between 1-6 nT.
Bz component remained between +4 - -4 nT, predominately positive,
between 07 UT-11 UT with a sustained southward period.
at 16 UT solar wind speeds declined to 275km/s; through the period were between 310 km/s - 275 km/s.
Phi angle was predominantly in a negative orientation with brief oscillations into a positive sector.
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Arrival of the CME predicted in 05 November disappearing solar filament delayed.
Prediction:
on November 11-12 a stream of solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole is expected to reach our planet, possibly sparking geomagnetic storms and high-latitude auroras when it arrives.
EARTH:
Copahue volcano, central Chile - Argentina border (elevation: 2953 m): gas and water vapor plumes with minor ash content rose to altitudes 4 km and drifted north-east.
Dukono volcano, Halmahera, Indonesia (elevation: 1229 m):
ash plumes rose to an altitude of 2 km and drifted north-west.
Kīlauea Volcano Hawaii, USA
(summit elevation 1247 m): the summit lava lake surface dropped over the past day and was measured at about 19 m below the floor of Halemaʻumaʻu Crater. Incandescence; lava flow enters the ocean near Kamokuna.
Popocatepetl volcano, Mexico (elevation: 5426 m):
steam, gas, ash emissions, crater incandescence visible nightly.
Sabancaya volcano, Peru (elevation: 5967 m):
gas and water-vapor plumes with minor amounts of ash rose to a maximum height of 2 km above the summit. Ash dispersing within a 5-km radius.
In evening three explosions of Ubinas volcano, Peru (elevation: 5672 m) generated an ash plume which rose 1.5 km above the crater rim and drifted east.
(Prediction from 05 November 2016):
on 08 November the CME arrival at Earth may cause a geomagnetic storm; aurora is likely to be observed at high latitudes.

 

2016/11/07

SUN
Solar activity was very low.  Regions 2605 and  2606 underwent eventual decay,
following a brief stint of minor growth to both regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
SPACE
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels.
Total field strength was between 2-6 nT.
Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a positive (away) sector and
about 06:45 UT to 15:00 UT a solar sector boundary change (SSBC) from + to to a negative (towards) sector was observed with slight enhancement of the magnitude of the IMF.
Prior to SSBC, the, Bz component of the IMF was generally southward around -1 to -3 nT
then remained northward through the end of the period, fluctuated between -3 and +5 nT.
Solar wind speeds were between 290 - 330 km/s.
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
EARTH
21:31 UT: magnitude 5.6 earthquake occured in Inddonesia at a distance of 172 km South-Southwest from Cicadas  (depth : 10 km). See also: seismotectonics of the Sumatra region.
Copahue volcano, central Chile - Argentina border (elevation: 2953 m): gas and water vapor plumes with minor ash content rose to altitudes of 3-4 km and drifted east and north-east
Dukono volcano, Halmahera, Indonesia (elevation: 1229 m): ash plumes rose to an altitude of 2 km and drifted north-west.
Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, USA (elevation: 1222 m): the lava lake fluctuated; incandescence; lava flow continued to enter the ocean near Kamokuna.
Popocatepetl volcano, Mexico (elevation: 5426 m): steam, gas, ash emissions, crater incandescence visible nightly.
Sabancaya volcano, Peru (elevation: 5967 m): gas and water-vapor plumes with minor amounts of ash rose to a maximum height of 2 km above the summit.
Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea (elevation: 2334 m): ash plume rose to an altitude of 3 km and drifted over 45 km east.


2016/11/06

SUN
Solar activity was very low. On the visible disk region 2605 underwent decay, region 2606 was stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
SPACE.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached minor storm levels at geosynchronous orbit with a peak  flux of 3,160 pfu,
at 01:30 UT.
EARTH
at 01:55 UT.
Suwajosejima volcano, Japan (elevation: 796 m) erupted
SPACE
Early in the period
Bz component of the IMF briefly reached -5 nT,
later
was between -5/+3 nT.
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength values were from 2 to 5 nT.
Solar wind speeds were between 295-330 km/s.
Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a positive (away) sector.
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
EARTH
Dukono volcano, Halmahera, Indonesia (elevation: 1229 m):
ash plumes rose to an altitude of 2 km and drifted north and north-west.
Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, USA (elevation: 1222 m):
the lava lake fluctuated; incandescence. Lava flow continued to enter the Pacific ocean near Kamokuna.
Popocatepetl volcano, Mexico (elevation: 5426 m):
steam, gas, ash emissions, crater incandescence visible nightly.
Sabancaya volcano, Peru (elevation: 5967 m):
ash-bearing explosions began. Ash plumes rose 1.5 km above the crater rim and drifted east.
Sinabung volcano, Indonesia (elevation: 2460 m): an ash plume rose to an altitude of 4 km and drifted east.


2016/11/05

SUN
Solar activity was very low. There was 2 stable active regions on the visible disk, without any produced flares. A filament eruption and an associated CME - halo or partial-halo CME - was observed in the northwest quadrant on the Sun with a peak at
04:52 UT.
SPACE
Prediction:
The CME associated with the filament eruption is likely to become geoeffective; its arrival is suggested early on 08 November.  Minor up to moderate geomagnetic storms are possible.
The solar wind speed decreased to about 320 km/s. The total Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength (IMF Bt) values fluctuated between 2-5 nT. The Bz component of the IMF varied  between -2/+2 nT and was predominately positive (generally northward).  The phi angle was in a positive (away) solar sector orientation.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached minor storm levels; 
at 16:15 UT
a peak flux of 3,750 pfu.
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
EARTH
(Prediction):
The CME arrival is likely at Earth on 08 November may cause a geomagnetic storm; aurora  to be observed at high latitudes.
Copahue volcano, Argentina-Chile border
(summit elevation: 2997 m). Continuous emission of steam, gases near the summit. Gas and water vapor plumes with minor ash content rose to altitudes of 3-4 km and drifted east and north-east.
Dukono volcano, Halmahera, Indonesia (elevation: 1229 m):
ash plumes rose to an altitude of 2 km and drifted north-east, north.
Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, USA (elevation: 1222 m):
the lava lake fluctuated; incandescence. Lava flow from a vent on Pu'u 'O'o Crater's eastern flank continued to enter the ocean near Kamokuna.
Popocatepetl volcano, Mexico (elevation: 5426 m):
steam, gas, ash emissions, crater incandescence visible nightly.


2016/11/04

SUN
Solar activity was very low.
after 01:10 UT
an approximately 15-degree filament was observed lifting off in the southwest quadrant.
02:30 UT
: beginning of a filament eruption;
SPACE
Phi angle was variable early in the period
after 04:30 UT
settled into a positive sector.
SUN
07:36 UT
: an (associated with filament eruption) CME directed west of the Sun-Earth line was observed.
13:00 UT
: another partial filament eruption and magnetic re-connection event occured.
Two active regions - spots  numbered 2605 and 2606 - are on the visible disk. An isolated B-class flare of sunspot number 2605 occured. No Earth-directed CME was observed.
EARTH
16:20 UT: magnitude 6.4 earthquake in Chile,
at a distance of 25 km east-southeast of Curico (depth: 90.8 km). See also: seismotectonics of South America (Nazca plate region)
SPACE
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,780 pfu
at 17:20 UT.
The total Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength (IMF Bt) varied between 3 - 6 nT.
Bz component of the IMF briefly reached -5 nT early in the period, fluctuated between -5/+5 nT and was predominately positive, generally northward throughout the remainder of the period.  
Solar wind speeds ranged between 365-420 km/s; generally decreasing.
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
EARTH

Colima volcano, Mexico (elevation: 3850 m):
ash plume rose to an altitude of 4 km and drifted over 30 km south-west.
Copahue volcano, central Chile - Argentina border (elevation: 2953 m):
gas and water vapor plumes with minor ash content rose to altitudes of 3-4 km and drifted east.
Dukono volcano, Halmahera, Indonesia (elevation: 1229 m):
ash plumes rose to an altitude of 2 km and drifted north-east.
Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, USA (elevation: 1247 m):
eruption continues at summit and east rift zone. The summit lava lake surface remains high - was about 12 m below the floor of Halemaʻumaʻu Crater. Average summit sulfur dioxide emission rates range from about 3,600 to 6,500 metric tons/day.
Klyuchevskoj volcano, Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 4754 m):
on the eastern flank lava flow traveled down the Apakhonchich drainage. Explosions, gas and steam emissions with variable amounts of ash plumes as high as 6 km. Hot avalanches. Plume of ash drifted for about 104 km to the east, south-east.
Langila volcano, Papua New Guinea (elevation: 1330 m):
three ash plumes rose  to an altitude of 3 km and drifted north-west.
Pavlof volcano Alaska, USA (elevation: 2518 m):
vapor emissions, with or without minor amounts of volcanic ash occur from the summit vent.
Popocatepetl volcano, Mexico (elevation: 5426 m): steam, gas, ash emissions, crater incandescence visible nightly.
(Update -): Sheveluch volcano Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 3283 m): lahar is carrying tree trunks and blocks up to 1 m in diameter. The lahar had a minor sulfur odor. Hot avalanches. Strong fumarolic activity, dome incandescence, ash explosions with ash plumes as high as 6 km. Ash plumes drifted over 300 km north-east, east. (- updated)

 

2016/11/03

SUN
Very low solar activity. The sunspot number has dropped to zero. Then 2 active regions - sunspots numbered 2605 and 2606 - emerged on the visible side of the solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
SPACE
Moderate solar wind; its speed values decreased from about 420 km/s to near 375 km/s.
The total Interplanetary Magnetic Field  strength (IMF Bt) varied between 3 and 8 nT.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high - minor storm - levels at geosynchronous orbit.
EARTH
11:40 UT: Langila volcano, Papua New Guinea (elevation: 1330 m) erupted.
Ash plume rose to an altitude of 3 km and drifted 55 km west.
SPACE
15:45 UT: peak flux of the greater than 2 MeV electron flux of 4,360 pfu observed.

The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated - with a maximum southward deflection - between -6/+3 nT.
at 19:00 UT: the prolonged period with negative Bz values  ended.
The geomagnetic field was at active levels for 12 hours.
EARTH
Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, USA (elevation: 1222 m): the lava lake continued to fluctuate between 11 and 19 m below the Halema’uma’u floor.
Klyuchevskoj volcano, Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 4754 m): eruption. Gas, steam, and ash plumes from explosions rose to altitudes of 5-8 km and drifted 277 km east and south-east.
Masaya volcano, Nicaragua (elevation: 635 m): steam and gas plume possibly contained some ash.
Popocatepetl volcano, Mexico (elevation: 5426 m): steam, gas, ash emissions, crater incandescence visible nightly.
Sabancaya volcano, Peru
(elevation: 5967m): emissions of steam reaching heights up to 2000m over the summit.
Sheveluch volcano Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 3283 m): lava-dome extrusion onto Sheveluch’s northern flank, accompanied by strong fumarolic activity, dome incandescence. Ash plumes drifted (Update- ): as far as 143 km east. (- updated) over 300 km north-east, east.

 

2016/11/02

SUN
Very low solar flare activity. Sunspot AR2605 is vanishing; no active region on the visible solar disk. The northern polar coronal hole expanded to the low latitudes. It may slightly disturbs the geospace environment.
SPACE
Moderate solar wind. Its speed was about 400-435 km/s; gradually decreasing.
The geomagnetic field was at active to quiet levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux maintained at minor storm levels at geosynchronous orbit
14:15 UT: a max flux of 10,939 pfu.
EARTH
15:30 UT: Klyuchevskoj volcano Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 4754 m): eruption.

16:55 UT Sheveluch volcano Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 3283 m):
eruption; ash plumes drifted, strong fumarolic activity.
18:05 UT Klyuchevskoj volcano Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 4754 m): eruption.
Gas, steam, and ash plumes from explosions rose.
SPACE
19:00 UT:
period with negative Bz values began.
Asteroid 2016 VA
(size: 16m; passing at a distance of 0,2 L(unar) D(istance)
EARTH
passed through regions of negative IMF. Arctic sky auroras were observed.
Dukono volcano, Halmahera, Indonesia (elevation: 1229 m): ash plumes rose to an altitude of 2 km and drifted south-east, east.
Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, USA (elevation: 1222 m):
the lava lake continued to rise and fall, circulate, and spatter in Kilauea’s Overlook vent.
Popocatepetl volcano, Mexico (elevation: 5426 m): steam, gas, ash emissions, crater incandescence visible nightly.
Sabancaya volcano, Peru (elevation: 5967 m): thermal anomaly was observed.

 

2016/11/01

EARTH
00:15 UT: Sinabung volcano, Indonesia (elevation: 2460 m): eruption
and pirocastic flow.
SUN
Very low solar flare activity. The large recurrent positive polarity coronal hole has nearly rotated around the west limb with the southern part still geoeffective. There was only one active region on the visible side of the solar disk with no C-class flares produced; new sunspot AR2605 is quiet and stable.
SPACE
The moderate solar wind speed is decreasing, varying in the range of about 450-520 km/s.
12:35 UT: the greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at high levels with a max flux of 14,300 pfu.
Vaning coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences; a stream of solar wind is exiting.
Geomagnetic conditions at quiet to unsettled levels.
SUN
13:48 UT: one slow coronal mass ejection (CME) with no impact for the Earth.
EARTH
passed through regions of negative interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Arctic sky auroras were observed.
13:50 UT: Klyuchevskoj volcano Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 4754 m) eruption;
17:18 UT: Klyuchevskoj volcano Kamchatka, Russia (elevation: 4754 m): eruption.

19:03 UT: earthquake - magnitude 6.0 - in Papua New Guinea
, at a distance of 406 km northeast of Port Moresby. Depth: 40km.
Cleveland volcano, Chuginadak Island, USA (elevation 1730 m): unrest continued; clouds often obscured views of the volcano.
Dukono volcano, Halmahera, Indonesia (elevation: 1229 m): ash plumes rose to altitudes of 2.1-2.4 km and drifted northeast and east.
Kilauea volcano, Hawaiian Islands, USA (elevation: 1222 m): the lava lake continued to rise and fall, circulate, and spatter in Kilauea’s Overlook vent; the lava lake fluctuated between 13 and 17.5 m below the Halema’uma’u floor. Incandescence from long-active sources within Pu'u 'O'o Crater. The 61G lava flow, originating from a vent on Pu'u 'O'o Crater's eastern flank, continued to enter the ocean near Kamokuna at the easternmost lava delta.
Turrialba volcano, Costa Rica
(elevation: 3340 m): ash plumes rose as high as 1 km above Turrialba’s active vent.

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